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Global Drug Trafficking UNCLASSIFIED Counter Narcotics Strategies and Operational Realities May 2009 Peter D. Burgess Counter Narcotics Project Office UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED Overview – Narcotics Trafficking • Operational picture – Counter‐narcotics Strategies • Concepts • Stakeholders – Operational Counter‐narcotics Support • Translating strategy to work • Holistic 2 UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED Barbary Wars • 1789 –Drafting of US Constitution dodged by threat of piracy from Barbary Coast – Barbary Pirates (vassals to the Sultan) attacking US merchant ships trading with Ottoman Empire • 1794 ‐ Naval Act authorized construction of a Navy– – USS United States; USS Constellation; USS Constitution, USS Chesapeake, USS Congress, USS President • US‐Ottoman trade increased 4‐fold after war – No. 1 valued import from Ottomans –Opium 3 UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED Global Illicit Traffic FBI Presentation –Cairo Egypt April 09 4 UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED Cocaine Traffic North America Demand¹ European demand² • 450-530 m-tons • 350 m-tons • $30,000 wholesale • $47,000/kg wholesale • $119,000 retail • $93,000/kg retail • $60- 100 billion profit margin • $28-50 billion profit margin 500 TB 240 M-tons • 1/3 by Air = 80,000 couriers 600 AQIM • 1/3 by Sea = 50-80 sailings € £ • 1/3 by Land = 320 4x4 trucks FARC $ Al Shabab 300 240 M-tons • 80% by sea = 100 ship crossings Source Zone • Crossing every 3 days African Transit Zone • 990 m-tons pure • 20% by Air =80 aircraft sorties • 240 m-tons pure • $3,000/kg • Flight every 4 days • $15-22,000/kg • $2.97 billion • $3.6-5.3 billion UNODC, 2008 WDR : ¹ Demand pg 76, prices pg 49; ² Demand pg 77 ;³prices pg 82. 5 UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED Heroin Traffic European Demand¹ Heroin Exports² • 350 - 400 m-tons • 820 m-tons • $31,000/kg wholesale • 60% via Pakistan (480 m-tons) • $67,000/kg retail • 100 M-tons via air/380 M-tons via Sea • $28-50 billion profit margin • 20% via Iran (160 m-tons) 850 • 20% via Central Asia (160 m-tons) 2200 TB AQIM South Asia Margins • Buy 480m-tons @ $3,500/kg = $1.68B • Sell 480m-tons @ $12,000/kg = $5.76B • Margin = $4.08 billion Al Shabab • Pakistan Military budget $20.0B East Africa Demand³ • 40 m-tons • 1.2 million users • 400k daily users • $22,000/kg wholesale • $18,000/Kg retail • $-160.0m loss UNODC, 2008 WDR : ¹ users pg 56, prices pg 49; ² pg 47 ; Paris Pact Conference, Nairobi Sept 08. 6 UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED Air Vectors – East Africa http://www.azworldairports.com/cfm/homepage.cfm Dubai Nairobi Annual Throughput Annual Throughput • 4,500,000 passengers • 4,800,000 passengers • 500,000 m-tons cargo • 276,800 m-tons cargo • 40,000 aircraft sorties • 72,700 aircraft sorties J-Burg Mauritius Annual Throughput Annual Throughput • 12,500,000 passengers • 2,500,000 passengers •NA • 45,000 m-tons cargo • 150,000 aircraft sorties • 19,000 aircraft sorties 7 UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED Air Vectors –North Africa http://www.azworldairports.com/cfm/homepage.cfm Casablanca Algiers Annual Throughput Annual Throughput • 6,000,000 passengers • 4,800,000 passengers • 276,800 m-tons cargo • 276,800 m-tons cargo • 72,700 aircraft sorties • 72,700 aircraft sorties Cairo Tunis Annual Throughput Annual Throughput • 10,800,000 passengers • 4,800,000 passengers • Not available • 276,800 m-tons cargo • 110,800 aircraft sorties • 72,700 aircraft sorties 8 UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED Air Vectors – West Africa http://www.azworldairports.com/cfm/homepage.cfm Dakar Abidjan Annual Throughput Annual Throughput • 1,000,000 passengers • 775,420 passengers •NA • 15,726 m-tons cargo •NA • 14,486 aircraft sorties Lagos Kotoka- Tema Annual Throughput Annual Throughput • 3,848,757 passengers • 636,114 passengers • 83,599 m-tons • 40,877 m-tons cargo • 74,650 aircraft sorties • 8,161 aircraft sorties 9 UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED North African Smuggling Potential North African Wholesale Value Cocaine: 150 M-tons @ $30-40,000/Kg North African Lift = $4.5-6.0 Billion Requirements ~ 80 M-tons via commercial aircraft • 80,000 pax ~ 80 M-tons overland • 320 4x4 Hilux Trucks • ~ 80 M-tons via coastal vessel to Morocco • 40-80 vessels Potential West African Wholesale Value Cocaine: 240 M-tons @ $20,000/Kg = $4.8 Billion 10 UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED West African Maritime Problem Set • Magnitude of trafficking – 100 illicit narcotics vessels – 60 illicit aircraft sorties • 2800 nm of coast line from Nigeria to Cape Verde – 33,600 sq nm of territorial waters – 560,000 sq nm of economic zone waters • Limited radar coverage • Limited maritime assets (patrol & intercept) – 700 Defender & Archangel class boats for 10,500 nm of US coast – Applying same ratio, West Africa requires 186 such boats – Approximately $200 million without support and sustainment 11 UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED West African Resources CIA WFB 2009 12 UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED CN Strategy Stakeholders National Security United Nations Strategy National Strategy National Drug UN Conventions Combating Terror Control Strategy 1961, 1972, 1988 Paris Pact Other Govt DoS & US AID DoD DHS DoJ African Union Agencies Strategic Plan Nat'l Def Strategy Treasury CBP FBI Int Narcotics Nat'l Military African Regional Control Strat Strategy Organizations Commerce ICE DEA NEA & Africa GWOT US Coast Others Bureaus Strategy African States Guard AFRICOM RWOT AFRICOM Mission Plan Country Strat InformInform AFRICOM CNT InformInform InfluenceInfluence Strategy InfluenceInfluence 13 UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED Counter Narcotics Strategy • Narcotics trafficking is a free enterprise system – Based on two forces: Market Demand and Supply Availability • All strategic efforts fall under two broad categories: Demand Reduction Supply Disruption • Prevention • Eradication – Public awareness • Alternative livelihood – Deterrence • Supply chain pressure – Drug Diversion – Interdiction • Intervention – Border security – Detection & screening – Customs – Treatment • Law Enforcement • Financial flows 14 UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED Trafficking Value Chain Activities 1988 Convention on Trafficking ‐ Offenses INVESTIGATION INTERDICTION Cultivation Organization delivery Production Management dispatch Extraction Financing dispatch in transit Manufacture Delivery transport Preparation Brokerage importation Possession manufacture, transport exportation Offering or distribution of equipment, materials or Offering for sale of substances used to Distribution cultivate, produce or Sale / purchase manufacture 15 UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED DoD CD Support ‐ §1004 • Maintenance, repair, or • Support requested “by an upgrading of equipment appropriate official of a department or agency… • Transportation for counter‐ that has counter‐drug drug activities responsibilities…” (NDAA 1004(a)(3)) • Establishment and –Have concurrence of US operation of bases of Ambassador to HN operations or training –Have concurrence of HN CD authority • Counter‐drug training; • Support US or HN Drug provision of necessary LEA or security forces materials & support with drug enforcement • Establishment of C4I responsibilities networks; to improve integration of law enforcement and military 16 UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED Operational Elements Interdiction Operations Land Operations See it Detect & Monitor • Mobile Units/Check pts Chase it Pursuit & Intercept • Canine units Catch it Law Enforcement • Intelligence & Investigation Prosecute Judicial • Prosecution Punish Justice • Anti‐corruption Maritime Operations Border Control/Security • Detection & Monitor • Airport interdiction • Patrol/Intercept boats • Intelligence • Intelligence • Cargo/Passenger inspection • Support facilities • Coast watchers • Maritime agreements • Roaming patrols 17 UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED Intelligence & Investigation • Legal authorities • Special investigation units • Organized crime/corruption • Financial Intelligence • Information fusion center • Prosecutorial investigation • JIATF‐South lessons learned – Best source of actionable information derived from LE – What is best source of LE information??? 18 UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED Ghana Problem Set – Limited Assets Maritime Aviation • 250 km of coast line •1 International Airport • 184 Fishing villages • 636,114 passengers • 300 landing points • 40,877 m-tons cargo • 10,000 fishing canoes • 8,161 aircraft sorties • No Radar coverage • 1 body scanner • Only 1 patrol boat Ghanaian Senior Police Officer… “Need information….. community policing programs leverage the community to provide the information…” 19 UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED Community or Civil Policing • (UK –DFID)…community policing or neighborhood policing is a policing strategy and philosophy based on the notion that community interaction and support can help control crime, with community members helping to identify suspects and bring problems to the attention of police. • (USA –DOJ) Community policing focuses on crime and social disorder through the delivery of police services that includes aspects of traditional law enforcement, as well as prevention, problem‐solving, community engagement, and partnerships… Nichol, Caroline G. Community Policing, Community Justice, and Restorative Justice: Exploring the Links for the Delivery of a Balanced Approach to Public Safety Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Justice, Office of Community Oriented Policing Services, 1999 20 UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED Community Policing & Corruption Organizational Elements Anti‐Corruption Tools • Organization‐Wide • Access to information • Decentralized Decision‐Making • Public awareness raising and and Accountability empowerment • Geographic Accountability • Media training and investigative
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