8/1/2018 CrisisWatch Print | Crisis Group CRISISWATCH Tracking Conflict Worldwide CrisisWatch is our global conict tracker, a tool designed to help decision-makers prevent deadly violence by keeping them up-to-date with developments in over 70 conicts and crises, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. Learn more about CrisisWatch July 2018 Global Overview JULY 2018 https://www.crisisgroup.org/crisiswatch/print?t=Crisiswatch+July+2018&crisiswatch=6217&date=July+2018 1/41 8/1/2018 CrisisWatch Print | Crisis Group Trends for Last Month Outlook for This Month July 2018 August 2018 Deteriorated Situations Conflict Risk Alerts Cameroon, Somalia, Côte d’Ivoire, Zimbabwe, Israel/Palestine, Yemen Mali, Pakistan, Nicaragua, Haiti, Israel/Palestine, Iraq, Yemen Resolution Opportunities Improved Situations Eritrea, Ethiopia, South Sudan, Zimbabwe, Yemen Eritrea, Ethiopia, Philippines In July, ghting rose between Israel and Hamas and could quickly escalate into a new Gaza war, while in Yemen, as violence intensied on several fronts, a UN plan offered hope that a battle for Hodeida city could still be averted. Al-Shabaab stepped up attacks in Somalia, Cameroon’s Anglophone conict spread to new areas, and tensions rose within Côte d’Ivoire’s ruling coalition. Violence marred elections in Pakistan and disrupted voting in Mali. Zimbabwe’s rst general election since former President Mugabe’s ouster went largely peacefully; wide endorsement of the results could pave the way for the country’s recovery, but their rejection could spark turmoil. Violent protests erupted in southern Iraq over poor services and unemployment, and in Haiti over a proposed hike in fuel prices. Deadly clashes between protesters and pro- government forces in Nicaragua continued with hundreds now reported killed. On a brighter note, Ethiopia and Eritrea took further steps to cement peace, South Sudan’s warring leaders agreed to share power, and in the Philippines, the Bangsamoro Organic Law, a long-awaited step to implement peace in Mindanao, was nally signed into law. Trends and Outlook PRESIDENT'S TAKE Some Good News Amid the Bad ROBERT MALLEY PRESIDENT & CEO Over the summer several long-lasting conicts have become more lethal. In his introduction to the July/August 2018 edition of CrisisWatch, our President Rob Malley welcomes the exception – the of... Continue reading https://www.crisisgroup.org/crisiswatch/print?t=Crisiswatch+July+2018&crisiswatch=6217&date=July+2018 2/41 8/1/2018 CrisisWatch Print | Crisis Group Fighting between Israel and Hamas, the Palestinian faction that controls Gaza, rose to its highest level since the 2014 war, and could escalate into a new full-scale confrontation. To stop Palestinian protesters in Gaza sending incendiary kites across the border, Israel ramped up aerial strikes on Hamas targets and tightened its blockade. Retaliating with rocket re, Hamas and Islamic Jihad sought to reestablish the precedent that Israeli bombings would not go unanswered. To avert another war, the international community should press Israel to lift the blockade and the Palestinian Authority to take over Gaza through intra-Palestinian reconciliation. In Yemen, as ghting intensied on several fronts, Saudi-led coalition forces consolidated their positions just south of the port city of Hodeida. The UN envoy’s proposal to avert a battle for the city and restart talks, and the Huthis’ two-week ceasere in the Red Sea still offer a glimmer of hope. But if the plan does not satisfy belligerents’ conditions, they could continue to pursue victory through violence. Protests swept across southern Iraq, with demonstrators bemoaning poor services and unemployment and attacking government and party ofces. Security forces responded harshly, in some places shooting at protesters, and killing around 50. To douse widespread anger, Crisis Group urged the new government, once formed, to strengthen the judiciary and independent oversight agencies in their ght against corruption – Iraq’s public enemy number one. Zimbabwe’s general elections on 30 July – the rst since Robert Mugabe was ousted in November – could lay the foundation for the country’s recovery, or lead to violence. Voting took place largely peacefully and three quarters of the electorate cast a ballot. A credible result accepted by all would give the government much-needed legitimacy. But, as we warned, if the losers reject the results, violence could break out, eroding prospects of economic and governance reform and international re-engagement. In Mali, intercommunal violence and jihadist attacks, especially in the centre and north east, rose in the lead-up to hotly contested presidential elections on 29 July. The violence and a chaotic electoral process may have squandered whatever opportunity the vote presented to revive the peace process. In Cameroon, the Anglophone conict spread to new areas, and trouble brewed within Côte d’Ivoire’s ruling coalition. The parties of President Ouattara and former President Bédié squared off over the merger of all coalition members into a single party ahead of presidential elections in 2020. The Horn of Africa took strides toward greater stability, and felt painful setbacks. In Somalia, Al-Shabaab stepped up its offensive against military forces and civilians, resuming attacks in Mogadishu after a lull. In contrast, the leaders of Ethiopia and Eritrea turned a page in history when they agreed to end the state of war that had existed between their nations since 1998. In South Sudan, the war’s protagonists signed security and power-sharing agreements giving rise to cautious optimism. Now they must translate these commitments into new realities on the ground, and put a stop to more than four years of ghting. Pakistan’s general election on 25 July was marred by high levels of violence as well as allegations of irregularities and interference by federal and provincial caretaker governments, the judiciary and the military. Over 200 candidates and supporters were killed in attacks ahead of the election and on polling day, including the 13 July terror attack on a rally in Balochistan that killed at least 149 people. In Nicaragua, 38 people were reported killed in clashes between protesters and troops on 8 July, the deadliest day since protests against President Ortega’s government began in April. With paramilitary and police forces attempting to subdue protest strongholds and restore government control, the reported death toll since April now exceeds 350. Four people were killed during violent protests in Haiti after the government announced a hike in fuel prices. In the Philippines, the long-awaited Bangsamoro Organic Law was nally signed into law at the end of July, the most important component of the 2014 peace agreement between the government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front aimed at ending 40 years of conict in Mindanao. As we argue, implementing this deal is essential to efforts to curtail the inuence and spread of jihadist groups in the country. https://www.crisisgroup.org/crisiswatch/print?t=Crisiswatch+July+2018&crisiswatch=6217&date=July+2018 3/41 8/1/2018 CrisisWatch Print | Crisis Group Latest Updates Africa Burundi JULY 2018 Govt 5 July began collecting contributions from citizens to pay for elections in 2020; trade unions criticised multiple contributions demanded by govt. Tensions rose at University of Burundi: police and student members of Imbonerakure (ruling party’s youth wing) 2 July arrested three student members of Agathon Rwasa-led branch of opposition National Forces of Liberation; tracts threatening students who were resisting joining ruling party found at university 9 July. European Parliament 5 July adopted resolution heavily critical of govt actions and calling for halt to Burundian participation in African Union’s and UN peacekeeping operations. Tensions rose between Burundi and Rwanda following several cross-border attacks in southern Rwanda: unidentied armed group from Burundi 1 July raided Cyamuzi village in southern Rwanda near Burundi border, attack follows two similar raids in June; Rwandan President Kagame 13 July asserted army’s readiness to ght off any attack. Cameroon JULY 2018 Anglophone conict spread to new areas including Buea, capital of Southwest region, as Boko Haram (BH) continued attacks in Far North. Anglophone separatist militants carried out attacks almost daily in Southwest and Northwest regions, primarily on security forces and other state representatives, and for rst time in Buea and Limbe, both Southwest, while military continued to attack militants and civilians. Religious authorities 25 July said they would convene Anglophone General Conference 29-30 Aug in Buea to agree on issues to address in national dialogue on Anglophone crisis. Major violent incidents include the following: separatist militants 8-9 July killed police commissioner in Kumba, Southwest and police ofcer in Buea; militants 12 July twice attacked convoy of minister-delegate for defence on Kumba-Mbongue road, military accompanying convoy killed six militants; militants 20 July burned teacher training college in Ndop, Northwest; militants 27 July killed traditional chief of Lysoka, Southwest; militants 28 July burned Ndop prison, Northwest, freeing dozens of prisoners; security forces and armed separatists clashed in Buea 30 July, four civilians killed. In Far North, BH militants continued attacks on civilians particularly near border with Nigeria, killing at least seventeen, and clashed with military. Govt