The Sun Is Shining – but Not for Everyone

Wind energy husum trade fair Full house at Vestas: with its new 3 MW V112 turbine, the Danish manufacturer presented an all-round system for locations with low to medium wind speeds. Photos (3): Andreas Birresborn The sun is shining – but not for everyone Husum Wind Energy 2010 returned yet another record- The only dark clouds on the horizon are rising from the new government energy concept of branch breaking attendance. But the sunshine over Schleswig- technology leader and renewable energy legislation pioneer Germany. For many years, renewable ener- Holstein was nevertheless unable to dispel all the dark gies were promoted without giving due concern to clouds spread by the German government’s new energy grid expansion. In the meantime, whole wind farms have been ramped down or taken off the grid com- concept. pletely because the capacities are simply insufficient. Concurrently, the volume of incentives which must rade fair CEO Hanno Fecke had every reason to eventually be paid by the final consumer has risen to be satisfied with a total of 971 exhibitors and some € 8.2 billion. The politicians have now appar- Taround 33,000 visitors, despite various logisti- ently decided to react and are seeking to solve firstly cal difficulties and criticism. Even before the official the grid problems. In its Energy Concept 2050, the end of this year’s event, the forthcoming Husum Wind federal government assigns a major role to renewable Energy 2012 was already practically sold-out: “We energy, and here in particular to wind energy, but at will then be expecting up to 1,300 exhibitors,” Fecke the same time demands that it must become afford- announced. able and competitive. Until then, nuclear power is to 128 Sun & Wind Energy 11/2010 step in and bridge the technology gap. The associat- ed extension of the operating times for nuclear power plants, however, will also cement the monopoly position of the energy giants E.ON, Vattenfall, EnBW and RWE, a fact which naturally weighs heavily on the mood of the wind branch. There are many who fear for the domestic market. The scenarios developed by the commissioned institutes assume an increase in the installed capacity in Germany to 36.4 GW by 2050 (currently 26.3 GW): “The concept illustrates the priv- ileged treatment given to the big energy suppliers. Fully amortised base-load power stations are not compatible with decentralised renewable energy sources, and we are not partners of the nuclear power industry. If our capacity expansion continues at the present rate, then we will already have met the government targets by 2015. Thereafter, wind energy in Germany would effectively be discontinued,” com- plains Hermann Albers, President of the German Wind Energy Association (BWE). Not only that, there are also rumours that the previous preferential grid inputs Peng Jinzhu, Senior Sales from renewable sources could be revoked in the next Chinese bound ahead Manager for United Power, amendment of the Renewable Energy Sources Act, deems the company’s turbine despite being mentioned expressly in the energy A note of optimism has been provided by the Interna- technology to be adequately concept. tional Energy Agency: the worldwide forecast for mature, and has now set sights The German debate is being observed with eagle 2020 has been raised from 231 to 415 GW. For the on the US market. eyes by the international scene, as domino effects in years through to 2014, the GWEC has identified sig- Photo: Torsten Thomas other countries are not to be ruled out. “Germany is nificant potential in Asia, Europe and North America: the technology showcase of the branch, and its ener- “Latin America, Brazil and Africa will also be lending gy concepts serve as an international model,” says important impetus to the market,” says Rave. China Klaus Rave, President of the Global Wind Energy has not yet appeared on his list as a potential Council (GWEC), emphasising the explosiveness. competitor. His analysis: “China wants to keep value creation within the country. And as long as wind Falling turbine prices energy is not a business model backed by corre- sponding quality, the country is not a real player on South Korean manufacturers The declining markets are already postponing their the global market.” like Hyosung have so far been worldwide hopes to the coming year. As a conse- It is by all means possible, however, that the selling turbines up to 3 MW on quence of the economic crisis, the key market USA is branch is in for a surprise. In 2009, the three leading their own domestic market, but reckoning with a newly installed wind power capacity manufacturers alone supplied turbines with a capac- are now planning significant of at best 5 GW in 2010, instead of the planned 10 GW. ity of 8,200 MW. Sinovel has installed the first off- technology strides. Another sharp dip can be expected in Spain, where shore wind farm outside Europe at Donghai Bridge Photo: Torsten Thomas input tariffs have been reduced retrospectively by 35 % for at least 30 months. With just 800 MW, France will similarly fall well short of the envisaged 1,100 MW, and has furthermore introduced new environ- mental legislation with stricter approval procedures. The German export quota fell from 83 % (2007) to 75 % in 2009. Alongside, the domestic market shrank by 17.8 % in the first half of 2010, compared to the same period last year. The number one in the world is once more China, with new installations totalling 13.8 GW. It must be remembered, on the other hand, that the Chinese market, where 200 GW are assumed for installation by 2020, remains reserved for domestic manufacturers. In Eastern Europe, it is the devaluation of the local currencies which is putting dampers on the project developers. The overall result of this dwin- dling demand is pressure on the balance sheets and turbine prices of most manufacturers. The talk on the exhibition floor was that wind turbines are being sold well below the usual margins, and even German market leader Enercon is said to be lowering its prices. Sun & Wind Energy 11/2010 129 Wind energy husum trade fair (34 turbines with 3 MW each), 2006. According to Senior Marketing Manager Peng and order books are also brim- Jinzhu, its 1.5 MW system was developed by Aerodyn, ming in the supply industry. At the gearless 3 MW turbine by Garrad Hassan. A 6 MW the same time, ever greater at- turbine for offshore installation, furthermore, is the tention is now being paid to “en- subject of ongoing negotiations. Around 1,000 tur- hanced quality, production mon- bines of the 1.5 MW series have been erected in itoring and employee training,” China to date, and the first 3 MW system is to be says Qi Hesheng, Secretary Gen- installed near Beijing in October. United Power has eral of the China Wind Energy similarly set its sights on the international market – Equipment Association. There even though China will remain its most important can be no doubt that China has market “for at least another five years”. long since recognised the poten- But China is only one of a growing number of tial of the international wind mar- competitors. Furthermore, it could be seen in Husum ket – the new development is to that there is a clear trend in the direction of gearless be seen in the intensity in which turbines for onshore and offshore installation. When this is now being demonstrated gearboxes remain topical, the developments are at trade fairs like that in Husum. tuned to compact and above all short designs. In this Turbine manufacturer Gold- context, South Korea has emerged as a serious con- wind has been in the business for tender. Companies such as Unison, Hyosung, 20 years, albeit as a project de- Hyundai , Samsung and Daewoo have so far been sell- veloper for the first ten years. Ac- ing turbines with outputs of up to 3 MW on their own cording to Garth Heron, Associ- domestic market, but are now planning significant ate Director for international technology strides. “By the end of 2012, large-scale business, Goldwind already sees test farms will have been set up on land and off the itself as the market leader “in coast, new manufacturing techniques and foundation terms of sales”, given the compa- structures will have been developed, and then we can ny’s expectations of an installed prepare exports to the rest of the Asian region,” says capacity of 6 GW in 2010. The Son Choong-Yul, President of the Korean Wind Energy current production capacity is Association. sufficient for 3,000 turbines of the 1.5 MW class. In addition, “A turbine for the world” there is a 2.5 MW model in onshore and offshore versions. US concern GE places its faith in “evolutionary devel- Goldwind is planning to install opments and availabilities”, as well as new system 400 units of the 2.5 MW turbine modules. The previous 1.5 and 2.5 MW turbines are worldwide next year. Heron hereby to experience a moderate performance up- comes straight to the point in his grade. The 1.5 is to be offered with an extra 100 kW Vestas V112 turbine preview of export business devel- output and a rotor diameter of 100 m, and from 2011, Photo: Vestas opment: “We can supply our turbines at 70 to 80 % of the output of the 2.5 will be raised to 2.75 MW, then the price asked by European manufacturers” (see with rotor diameters of 103 and 112 m.

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