FREIRE Phdthesis2020
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MODELING OF POPULATION DISTRIBUTION IN SPACE AND TIME TO SUPPORT DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT Sérgio M. C. Freire MODELING OF POPULATION DISTRIBUTION IN SPACE AND TIME TO SUPPORT DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT DISSERTATION to obtain the degree of doctor at the University of Twente, on the authority of the rector magnificus, prof.dr. T.T.M. Palstra, on account of the decision of the Doctorate Board to be publicly defended on Friday 8 May 2020 at 16.45 hours by Sérgio Manuel Carneiro Freire born on the 14th of May 1972 in Porto, Portugal 3 This dissertation has been approved by Prof. dr.ir. R.V. Sliuzas, supervisor Prof. dr.ir. M.F.A.M. van Maarseveen, supervisor ITC dissertation number 382 ITC, P.O. Box 217, 7500 AE Enschede, The Netherlands ISBN 978-90-365- 4999-8 DOI 10.3990/1.9789036549998 Cover designed by Job Duim Printed by ITC Printing Department Copyright © 2020 by Sérgio Manuel Carneiro Freire, The Netherlands. All rights reserved. No parts of this thesis may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means without permission of the author. Alle rechten voorbehouden. Niets uit deze uitgave mag worden vermenigvuldigd, in enige vorm of op enige wijze, zonder voorafgaande schriftelijke toestemming van de auteur. Graduation committee: Chairman/Secretary Prof.dr. F.D. van der Meer Supervisor(s) Prof.dr.ir. R.V. Sliuzas Prof.dr.ir. M.F.A.M. van Maarseveen Members Prof.dr.ir. R.V. Sliuzas Prof.dr.ir. M.F.A.M. van Maarseveen Prof.dr. K. Pfeffer Prof.dr.ir. A. Stein dr. C.J. van Westen Prof. dr. C. Linard Prof. dr. D. Martin Dedicated to Sara and Marta: “May you build a ladder to the stars And climb on every rung May you stay forever young” Bob Dylan Foreword It became a sort of tradition to equate a PhD to a ‘long and arduous journey’ – but it certainly was in this case. The work comprising this thesis spans 9 years, two countries and two research institutions where I have lived and worked in this period: the FCSH-UNL (Lisbon, Portugal) and the EC-JRC (Ispra, Italy). My interest in modeling population distribution was born in the previous millennium, during my time as graduate student at the University of Kansas (USA). There on the edge of the Great Plains I had the fortune of being exposed to the first version of LandScan global population grid (1998) and meeting its visionary author, Jerry Dobson. I was struck by the apparent simplicity and broad reach of the concept that characterize bright developments, and was hooked on the possibilities. After leaving KU I continued to develop my population models, and around 2008 I also directed my interest to their applications, especially in Disaster Risk Management, as that seemed to me the domain where most societal benefits were to be gained. I did this mostly on my own time while working on other research projects and activities (e.g. teaching GIS), as I had no funding for this specific line of research. I tried as much as possible to connect topics and during those very productive years managed to develop several applications of improved population distribution across different domains. Having amassed some research experience and publications, around 2012 I started inquiring about the possibility of turning some of this body of work and publications into a PhD thesis, but this was deemed not viable. I moved on, embracing a new challenge at the EC-JRC in Italy. In 2015, with more than 100 scientific publications under my belt (and having contributed to two PhDs) an opportunity appeared that could lead to earning that degree that is a necessary (but not sufficient) step for a researcher to improve his job prospects. Through Richard Sliuzas, whom I had met earlier, I applied to the PhD program at the ITC Faculty, University of Twente (a perfect fit for my topic), submitted a proposal, and formally enrolled in 2016. At this point I assumed it would be rather straightforward to build a decent PhD thesis as an external student by combining my ongoing research at JRC with that already published. I was wrong, of course – being with small children in a foreign country, having a wife with frequent business travels, and an absorbing job, this was in hindsight not a bright idea, and one that I regretted often. Paradoxically, a truly smart person would have chosen otherwise than going for a PhD. This diverted much energy, time, and patience from important activities and persons, and represented a high cost for an unknown benefit. And yet here I i am, nearing completion. In the process, I confirmed that earning a PhD is as much a proof of research skills as it is a trial of endurance, resilience, and stamina (the fact that many fail this test, enduring mental or physical damage, would warrant more attention from those involved in awarding these degrees). As I write this in Lombardy, we are in the middle of the COVID-19 pandemic, which started just when I was in the home stretch of finalizing this thesis. Besides prompting a worldwide lockdown and crisis without an end in sight (and postponing my well-deserved vacation), this epidemic tragically underlines the importance of disaster risk management and how much work remains to improve it. ii Acknowledgements Most of the publications comprising the core of this thesis have resulted from international collaborations, and I am especially pleased and proud of this circumstance. So I start by thanking all 12 co-authors, from seven nationalities and four institutions in two continents – I was honored to have you on board. Special thanks to my buddy and co-author extraordinaire Chris Aubrecht; my initial solitary efforts at population modeling and applications had a boost when we met at Gi4DM 2009 in Prague and joined interests and forces for a fruitful collaboration and friendship that I deeply cherish. I am also appreciative of the many people with whom I crossed paths and discussed ideas at numerous scientific meetings (in four continents), many of whom I came to befriend. Although this thesis features ’only’ five publications as core chapters, in two of my lines of research merging here I have authored and co-authored 50+ scientific publications, of which 45 are cited in this thesis. Therefore I also want to acknowledge that large group of co-authors, with whom I have learned so much. I want to thank the people and institutions who contributed data to the work supporting this thesis, especially important when this research was unfunded: António Costa, Francisco Costa, Albertina Lérias (Geopoint Lda.), José L. Zêzere (RISKam group/CEG-IGOT), Nuno Gomes, and Lisbon Metropolitan Area. At FCSH-UNL in Lisbon I thank my colleagues from e-GEO and especially José A. Tenedório and Carlos Pereira da Silva for supporting me in this line of research when no one else was. I thank my teammates at JRC, in particular Martino Pesaresi for the encouragement and the enlightening discussions, but also my good comrades of office 112: Aneta Florczyk, Marcello Schiavina, and Michele Melchiorri – Michele, for assistance with the template and formatting, grazie mille. I am grateful to ITC and my supervisors, Prof. Martin van Maarseveen and Prof. Richard Sliuzas for accepting me as their student and for their supervision. Richard, thanks so much for your guidance and generosity and apologies for my impatience. I also express my gratitude to the distinguished PhD Committee Members, in particular to the external members (Prof. Martin and Prof. Linard) for accepting to serve on this jury. I extend my appreciation to Petra Weber and ITC staff for all assistance. To my former colleagues and life friends Hugo Carrão and António Nunes um grande abraço for their ever-present encouragement. A special thank you is due to Alex de Sherbinin for showing me that this could be done and that it was not too late to do it. iii Last but certainly not least, I thank all my family and especially my wife Ana for her support and for being so resilient during these last couple of tough years for both of us. I owe a special recognition and apology to my daughters Sara and Marta, who (while babies) kept me company during long nights while I did much of the early work supporting this thesis. Then more recently, this thesis was put together stealing also their time – and therefore it is dedicated to them. iv Table of Contents Foreword .............................................................................................. i Acknowledgements ............................................................................... iii List of Figures ..................................................................................... viii List of Tables ........................................................................................ x Acronyms and abbreviations .................................................................. xi Chapter 1. Introduction, context and objectives ........................................ 1 1.1. Introduction and Significance ........................................................ 2 1.2. Context and Background .............................................................. 3 1.2.1 Population exposure and risk landscape, governance, and trends . 3 1.2.2 Mapping exposure for assessing populations at risk .................... 7 1.2.3 Beyond exposure: the relevance of population in integrated DRM 13 1.2.4 Background: Modeling and mapping of population distribution in space and time (for exposure analysis and DRM) .............................. 17 1.3 Objectives and structure of the Dissertation ................................... 27 Chapter