ECONOMICS DOI: 10.22616/rrd.26.2020.024

DEVELOPMENT OF ECOSYSTEM SERVICE OPPORTUNITIES IN THE NEMUNAS DELTA IN THE CONTEXT OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

Vytautas Pilipavičius1, *Jan Žukovskis2 1Vytautas Magnus University, 2Klaipeda University, Lithuania *Corresponding author’s email: [email protected]

Abstract The second half of the 20th century brought to light the consequences of human activity, when Humanity was confronted with demiurgical complexes and realized that the planet Earth was not only nature, but a complex system that today could no longer be operated by traditional methods and logic. While until the middle of the 20th century man used natural resources only to meet his needs, the 21st century poses new challenges for mankind to manage the consequences of human activities and to use them rationally and sustainably. The paper presents a study aimed at assessing the potential of ecosystem services development in the Nemunas Delta and anticipating their development directions. As a result of the research, the possible development directions of the Elderships were presented. It was done in two scenarios. The research was carried out in six municipality subdivisions (elderships) of the Nemunas Delta area in the framework of the Lithuanian Science Council project ‘Interaction of ecosystem services and human activities in the context of climate change’. Preparation of this paper was supported by funding from European Social Fund (project No 09.3.3-LMT-K-712-01-0178) under the grant agreement with the Research Council of Lithuania (LMTLT). Key words: climate change, development, ecosystem services, elderships.

Introduction The aim of the study is to evaluate the development Rapid economic development in the 20th century possibilities of ecosystem services in the Nemunas has shown that a Man, believing in the absolute power Delta and to predict the directions of development. of scientific and technical progress, has become the Objectives: master of nature, able to transform nature in its own • To provide methodological provisions for the way so that it can meet its ever-increasing needs. study of the development of ecosystem services; There is a widespread belief that increasing material • To conduct empirical research on the production is the only true measure of society’s development of ecosystem services in the progress and prosperity. By the end of the 1960’s, Nemunas Delta; environmental pollution had reached a level where it • To summarize the data of empirical research was no longer possible to devote no attention to the and to envisage directions of development. problem. For the research, scientific literature and Managing the consequences of human activities, documentary sources have been analyzed, and the through the rational and sustainable use of natural content analysis and empirical research methods have resources while ensuring the repeatability of been used. living conditions for future generations, poses new challenges for the 21st century community. Materials and Methods The European Union has linked the development The turn of the 20th and 21st centuries, with the to a smart, sustainable and inclusive growth (EU 2020 acceleration of scientific and technological advances strategy), taking into account the consequences and and new socio-economic opportunities and prospects, projections of global change. is characterized by radical changes (Melnikas, 2002). The Lithuanian Parliament approved the National Change can be perceived in two ways: change is Climate Change Management Policy Strategy for one of the common causes of human development 2013–2050 (National Climate Change ..., 2012). This and progress; change is an essential result of global strategy foresees the need to formulate and implement development and progress. In other words, change Lithuania’s climate change management policy – is determined by the existence of human beings in mitigation and adaptation, defining short-term (by the evolution of human life – natural processes and 2020), medium-term (by 2030 and 2040) and long- change initiated by organized human activities that term (by 2050) goals and objectives. shape the progress of human life – artificial processes The Lithuanian Science Council project (Grigaliūnienė, 2000). ‘Interaction of Ecosystem Services and Human Ecosystem services are opportunities provided Activities in the Context of Climate Change’ aimed by the ecosystem as natural artefacts that become to highlight the directions of ecosystem services resources in the human development process. development in the Nemunas Delta in the context of Today, the complexity of the interaction between global climate change. the worlds of nature and human activity is being

162 RESEARCH FOR RURAL DEVELOPMENT 2020, VOLUME 35 ECONOMICS DOI: 10.22616/rrd.26.2020.024

ECONOMICSToday, the complexity of the interaction between the worlds of nature and humanDOI: 10.22616/rrd.26.2020activity is being actualized.024 inDEVELOPMENT terms of global climateOF ECOSYSTEM change. The SERVICE source of change – development, as the initiator of change, manifests itself inOPPORTUNITIES overcoming the limitations IN THE NEMUNAS of traditional DELTA thinking, IN THEFigure 1. CONTEXTToday, theOF complexityGLOBAL CLIMATE of the interaction CHANGE betweenOvercoming the worlds limitations of nature and humanVytautas activity Pilipavičius, is being Jan actualized Žukovskis in terms of global climate change. The source of change – development, as the initiator of change, manifests itself in overcoming the limitations of traditional thinking, Figure 1. Current Overcoming limitations Done as as usual forcoming Tensions of the Current problem field Done as as usual forcoming Figure 1. DevelopmentsTensions in Overcomingof the Limitations . problem field Problem field tensions are stability interruption situations arising in the process of change that create preconditions for developmentFigure Figureand require 1. Developments new situation in in definitenessOvercoming Overcoming in Limitations Limitations.the past-future. -present interaction, Figure 2.

Problem field tensions are stabilityPresence interruption – real situations arising in the process of change that create preconditions for development and require new situation definiteness in the past-future-present interaction, Figure Artificial processes 2. „Currentness“ Presence – real

UsualArtificial processes Processable

The future The past „Currentness“

UsualNatural processes Processable

The past The future FigureFigure 2. Tensions 2. Tensions of the ofproblem the problem field ( Щедровицкийfield (Щедровицкий,, 2019). 2019).

Natural processes actualizedToday, in in termsthe context of global of global climate change change. access The(Schwab, development 2018), we can(A associateShort History development of ..., with2015), the asshift an sourcefrom traditional of change οίκος Figure– development,ƞομος 2. Tensionsto smart waysas of thethe of probleminitiator organizing fieldof οίκος (Щедровицкийinstrument λοɤος, capturing of , sustainable2019) the. tensions development, of the problematic responsible field change,in three dimensionsmanifests itself of time: in overcoming being as acting the realitylimitations in relation social to thebehaviour, past (what ensuring is past); youthe areconnection in touch withbetween the present (what is real); you are in touch with the future (what is to come). of traditionalToday, in thinking,the context Figure of global 1. change access (Schwab,investment 2018), we canand associate territorial development development, with the solving shift Development is based on a complex, systemic nature, providing reproductive, developmental, and investment fromProblem traditional field οίκος ƞομοςtensions to smart are ways stability of organizing interruption οίκος problems λοɤος, capturing of care thechange tensions and of shapingthe problematic future fieldsocial functions (Мескон et al., 2004). insituations three dimensions arising ofin time: the beingprocess as acting of change reality inthat relation clutches to the pastof cultural (what is lifestyles past); you and are other in touch contemporary with the Reproductive functions associated with problematization of the ‘being’ in the present-past tension, ensuring present (what is real); you are in touch with the future (what is to come). createcontinuous preconditions functioning infor the development short term, focused and require on the repetitionglobal ofissues lifestyle that conditions.reflect a new tradition. Development is based on a complex, systemic nature, providing reproductive, developmental, and investment new Improvement situation definiteness functions with in problematizationthe past-future-present of the ‘Methodologybeing’ in the tensionsof Empirical of the Research present and the future, in functions (Мескон et al., 2004). interaction,order to progress Figure in 2.the medium term with a view to improving Anthe empiricalquality of life.study has been carried out to analyse Reproductive functions associated with problematization of the ‘being’ in the present-past tension, ensuring Today,Investment in the functio contextns – withof global the problematization change access of thethe ‘being’ feasibility as done of in thedeveloping tension of ecosystem the future and services as usual in continuous functioning in the short term, focused on the repetition of lifestyle conditions. (Schwab,as in the past, 2018), in the we long can-term associate perspective development of strategic with development the Nemunas focused delta on shaping in the thecontext future of lifestyle. global climate Improvement functions with problematization of the ‘being’ in the tensions of the present and the future, in Integrated development of ecosystem services is directly related to the concept of sustainable development (A orderthe shift to progress from traditional in the medium οίκος term ƞομος with to asmart view ways to improving of change. the quality of life. Short History of ..., 2015), as an instrument of sustainable development, responsible social behaviour, ensuring the organizingInvestment οίκος functio λοɤος,ns –capturing with the problematizationthe tensions of theof the ‘being’• Assessmentas done in the of tension potential of the problems future and of as climateusual connection between investment and territorial development, solving problems of care change and shaping future asproblematic in the past, fieldin the inlong three-term dimensions perspective of oftime: strategic being development as changefocused onconsequences shaping the futurein the lifestyle. Nemunas delta social clutches of cultural lifestyles and other contemporary global issues that reflect a new tradition. actingIntegrated reality in development relation to theof ecosystem past (what services is past); is you directly relatedarea; to the concept of sustainable development (A Methodology of Empirical Research Shortare in History touch withof ..., the 2015), present as an (what instrument is real); of yousustainable are in development,• Analysis responsible of the social status behaviour, and trends ensuring of the the An empirical study has been carried out to analyse the feasibility of developing ecosystem services in the connection between investment and territorial development, solving problems of care change and shaping future touchNemunas with delta the infuture the context (what isof to global come). climate change. Nemunas Delta ecosystem services; social clutches of cultural lifestyles and other contemporary global issues that reflect a new tradition. Development• is based on a complex, systemic • Analysis of relevance and foresight of climate Methodology Assessment of Empirical of potential Research problems of climate change consequences in the Nemunas delta area; nature,• providingAnalysis of reproductive, the status and trendsdevelopmental, of the Nemunas and Delta ecosystemchange managementservices; directions in the Nemunas investmentAn empirical functions study (Мескон has been et carriedal., 2004). out to analyse the feasibilityDelta. of developing ecosystem services in the Nemunas• Analysisdelta in the of contextrelevance of andglobal foresight climate of change. climate change management directions in the Nemunas Delta. Reproductive functions associated with The questionnaire was based on the International •The Assessment questionnaire of potential was based problems on the International of climate change Climate consequences Change Commission in the Nemunas (IPCC) projectionsdelta area; on the major problematization of the ‘being’ in the present-past Climate Change Commission (IPCC) projections consequences• Analysis of climateof the status change and (Конттантинов, trends of the Nemunas 2018), research Delta ecosystem conducted services; in Lithuania (Climate Change ..., 2017), tension,Common ensuring International continuous Systematic functioning Classification in the of short Ecosystem on Servicesthe major (CICES) consequences and the European of climate Commission's change • Analysis of relevance and foresight of climate change management directions in the Nemunas Delta. Covenant of Mayors for Climate and Energy (Climate Change and Adaptation ..., 2017) documents. term,The focused questionnaire on the repetition was based ofon lifestylethe International conditions. Climate(Конттантинов, Change Commission 2018), (IPCC) research projections conducted on the major in The study included an assessment of the state of ecosystems and their development trends, as well as a consequencesImprovement of climate functions change (Конттантинов,with problematization 2018), research Lithuania conducted (Climate in Lithuania Change (Climate ..., Change2017), ...,Common 2017), comparative analysis. The evaluation was performed on a scale from 0 to 3. The results of the study are presented Commonof the ‘being’ International in the Systematictensions of Classification the present andof Ecosystem the International Services (CICES) Systematic and theClassification European Commission's of Ecosystem in graphs. Covenantfuture, in of order Mayors to progress for Climate in the and medium Energy (Climateterm with Change a Services and Adaptation (CICES) ..., and 2017) the documents. European Commission’s view The to improvingstudy included the quality an assessment of life. of the state of ecosystemsCovenant and of Mayorstheir development for Climate trends, and Energy as well (Climate as a comparativeInvestment analysis. functions The evaluation– with the was problematization performed on a scaleChange from and 0 to Adaptation 3. The results ..., of2017) the studydocuments. are presented inof graphs. the ‘being’ as done in the tension of the future and The study included an assessment of the state of as usual as in the past, in the long-term perspective of ecosystems and their development trends, as well as a strategic development focused on shaping the future comparative analysis. The evaluation was performed lifestyle. on a scale from 0 to 3. The results of the study are Integrated development of ecosystem services presented in graphs. is directly related to the concept of sustainable

RESEARCH FOR RURAL DEVELOPMENT 2020, VOLUME 35 163 DEVELOPMENT OF ECOSYSTEM SERVICE OPPORTUNITIES IN THE NEMUNAS DELTA IN THE Vytautas Pilipavičius, Jan Žukovskis CONTEXT OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

Table 1 Hierarchy of potential problems of climate change consequences

Hierarchy (1 – most important, 8 – least important)

No. Climate change phenomena Tourist Farmers Communities Experts Sum Average farmsteads

1 Increasing recurrence of dangerous natural 3 1 1 1 6 1 phenomena 2 Increase in average annual air temperature 5 2 3 4 14 4 3 Increasing heat wave repeatability 1 6 4 2 13 3 4 Increase in frequency of squalistic wind 6 6 5 1 18 5 (hurricanes) amplification 5 Average increase in rainfall 2 4 2 2 10 2 6 Declining and earlier onset of spring 7 7 8 5 27 7 flooding in rivers 7 Increasing frequency of low tides and 4 5 4 1 14 4 heavy rainfall in summer 8 Rising sea level in the increases 8 3 6 5 22 6 the frequency of salt water flow into the 9 Absence of snow, ice and frost 6 8 7 6 27 7 10 Desertification (natural area crawl) 7 3 5 7 22 6 11 Change of habitats of dangerous pathogens 6 2 3 3 14 4

Results and Discussion Head of the Department of Rural Affairs and Planning A questionnaire survey was used to conduct the and Development of Silute District municipality. ECONOMICS DOI: 10.22616/rrd.26.2020.024 study.ECONOMICS Respondents were selected as the target groups Table 1 presents a hierarchicalDOI: 10.22616/rrd.26.2020 analysis of potential.024 whose activities are directly related to the territory of climate change impacts in the Nemunas Delta. the Nemunas Delta. They are farmers (23), owners of The data in the table show different views of tourism and rural homesteads (14) and heads of rural farmers, farmsteads and experts. This is determined community organizations (11). Experts (6 people) by the nature of the respondents’ activities and their also participated in the survey: Head of Silute (Šilutė) importance. According to general respondents, the most Life Protection Inspectorate; Head of the Nemunas problematic would be the increase of recurrence of DeltaRespondentsRespondents Regional views parkviews administration; ofof thethe statestate and Director trendstrends ofof of ecosystem ecosystem Silute provision,dangerous provision, regulation, natural regulation, phenomena, and and cultural cultural the services average services are increase arepresented presented of in in ForestFiguresFigures Enterprise; 3, 3, 4, 4, and and 5 Head5.. of JSC ‘Silutes polderiai’; precipitation and the increase of heat wave repeatability.

TypesTypes of of provisioning provisioning services services ProvisioningProvisioning servicesservices AA Crops,Crops, fruits fruits and and other other cultivated cultivated plants plants for forfood food BB Fungal,Fungal, algae algae or or bacterial bacterial resources resources used used as materialas material StatusStatus Tendency AA CC PlantPlant resources resources used used as as an an energy energy source source 22.5.5 MM B DD AquacultureAquaculture - animals- animals raised raised for for food food 22 E E Domestic animals are raised for food Domestic animals are raised for food LL 11.5.5 C F F Animal resources used as material Animal resources used as material 11 G G Animal resources used to produce energy Animal resources used to produce energy K 00.5.5 D H Materials derived from wild plants for use or processing (eg K 0 D H Materials derived from wild plants for use or processing (eg 0 herbs)herbs) I Resources of wild plants, fungi and algae used for energy J E I Resources of wild plants, fungi and algae used for energy

J E production J Wild production animals (terrestrial and aquatic) and their products for I F J Wild animals (terrestrial and aquatic) and their products for I F human consumption (eg fish) H G K Drinkinghuman waterconsumption from surface (eg fish) water sources H G LK SurfaceDrinking water water for frompurposes surface other water than sourcesdrinking L M DrinkingSurface water fromfor purposes groundwater other sources than drinking M Drinking water from groundwater sources Figure 3. Assessment of the status and trends of provisioning services. Figure 3. Assessment of the status and trends of provisioning services. Figure 3. Assessment of the status and trends of provisioning services. 164 RESEARCH FOR RURAL DEVELOPMENT 2020, VOLUME 35 Regulatory services Types of regulatory services A Biological purification using microorganisms, Regulatory services Types of regulatory services Status Tendency A activatedBiological sludge, purification plants and using animals microorganisms, Status A Tendency B Wasteactivated and wastewatersludge, plants filtration, and animals retention is done 2.5 by microorganisms, algae, plants and animals M A B B Waste and wastewater filtration, retention is done 2 C 2.5 Soilby microorganisms,erosion control and algae, prevention plants and animals M B D Water flow regulation, flood risk reduction L 12.5 C C Soil erosion control and prevention E Wind / storm protection 1 D Water flow regulation, flood risk reduction L 1.5 C F Fire protection 0.5 E K 1 D G ProvisionWind / storm of wild protection plant and animal habitats 0 F Fire protection K 0.5 D H Control of pests and invasive species I G Provision of wild plant and animal habitats J 0 E Disease control J H SoilControl formation, of pests maintenance and invasive of soil species fertility I J E K MaintenanceDisease control of soil organic matter balance I F LJ RegulationSoil formation, of the maintenancechemical status of ofsoil freshwater fertility H G K bodiesMaintenance of soil organic matter balance I F L Regulation of the chemical status of freshwater H G bodies

Figure 4. Assessment of the status and trends of regulatory services.

Figure 4. Assessment of the status and trends of regulatory services. ECONOMICS DOI: 10.22616/rrd.26.2020.024

ECONOMICS DOI: 10.22616/rrd.26.2020.024

Respondents views of the state and trends of ecosystem provision, regulation, and cultural services are presented in Figures 3, 4, and 5. Respondents views of the state and trends of ecosystem provision, regulation, and cultural services are presented in Figures 3, 4, and 5. Types of provisioning services Provisioning services A Crops, fruits and other cultivated plants for food BTypes Fungal, of provisioning algae or bacterial services resources used as material ProvisioningStatus servicesTendency A A CCrops, Plant fruits resources and other used cultivated as an energy plants source for food 2.5 B M B DFungal, Aquaculture algae or - bacterial animals resourcesraised for used food as material Status A Tendency C 2 EPlant resources used as an energy source 2.5 Domestic animals are raised for food M B D Aquaculture - animals raised for food L 1.5 C F 2 E Animal resources used as material Domestic animals are raised for food 1 G L 1.5 C F Animal resources used to produce energy 0.5 Animal resources used as material K 1 D G H Materials derived from wild plants for use or processing (eg 0 Animal resources used to produce energy K 0.5 D H Materialsherbs) derived from wild plants for use or processing (eg 0 I Resources of wild plants, fungi and algae used for energy J E herbs)

I Resources production of wild plants, fungi and algae used for energy J E J Wild animals (terrestrial and aquatic) and their products for production I F J Wildhuman animals consumption (terrestrial and (eg aquatic) fish) and their products for I H G F K humanDrinking consumption water from (eg surface fish) water sources H G K LDrinking Surface water water from for surfacepurposes water other sources than drinking L MSurface Drinking water water for purposes from groundwater other than drinking sources M Drinking water from groundwater sources DEVELOPMENT OF ECOSYSTEM SERVICE OPPORTUNITIES IN THE NEMUNAS DELTA IN THE CONTEXT OF GLOBALFigure CLIMATE 3. Assessment CHANGE of the status and trends of provisioningVytautas servicesPilipavičius,. Jan Žukovskis Figure 3. Assessment of the status and trends of provisioning services.

Types of regulatory services Regulatory services Types of regulatory services Regulatory services A Biological purification using microorganisms, A Biological purification using microorganisms, Status Tendency activated sludge, plants and animals Status Tendency activated sludge, plants and animals A B Waste and wastewater filtration, retention is done A B Waste and wastewater filtration, retention is done 22.5.5 by microorganisms, algae, plants and animals MM BB by microorganisms, algae, plants and animals 22 C C SoilSoil erosion erosion control control and andprevention prevention D LL 11.5.5 CC D WaterWater flow flow regulation, regulation, flood flood risk riskreduction reduction 11 E E WindWind / storm / storm protection protection F 00.5.5 F FireFire protection protection K D D G 00 G ProvisionProvision of wildof wild plant plant and andanimal animal habitats habitats H H ControlControl of pestsof pests and and invasive invasive species species I I JJ E E DiseaseDisease control control J J SoilSoil formation, formation, maintenance maintenance of soil of fertilitysoil fertility K K MaintenanceMaintenance of soil of soil organic organic matter matter balance balance I F ECONOMICSI F L L RegulationRegulation of theof thechemical chemical status statusDOI: of freshwater 10.22616/rrd.26.2020of freshwater .024 ECONOMICSHH GG bodiesbodies DOI: 10.22616/rrd.26.2020.024

Figure 4. Assessment of the status and trends of regulatory services.

Figure 4. Assessment of the status and trends of regulatory services. TypesTypes of cultural of cultural servicesFigure services 4. Assessment of the status and trends of regulatory services. A ANature’s Nature’s properties properties related related to healthto health - active - active use use Cultural services B Nature’s properties related to health, nature's observation - B Nature’s properties related to health, nature's observation - Status TendencyTendency passivepassive use use C CNatural Natural qualities qualities that that allow allow for for scientific scientific research research or or the the accumulationaccumulation of traditionalof traditional ecological ecological knowledge knowledge D A DLiving Living-nature-nature qualities qualities that that provide provide opportunities opportunities for for 2.5 learning/learning/ nurturing nurturing K B K 2 B E ENature Nature features features as aas source a source of ofheritage heritage that that allow allow 1.5 identificationidentification with with the the history history or orculture culture of of the the place place of of 1.5 JJ 1 CC originorigin 1 F FLiving Living-nature-nature qualities qualities that that give give aesthetic aesthetic experience experience 0.5 G GNature Nature elements elements with with symbolic symbolic meaning meaning (used (used as as national national 0 I D or otheror other symbols) symbols) I D H HNature Nature elements elements of religious,of religious, spiritual spiritual significance significance (objects(objects of spiritual of spiritual and and religious religious importance) importance) I Nature elements related to nature knowledge (objects in H E I Nature elements related to nature knowledge (objects in H E nature, used in film production, book writing, etc.) nature, used in film production, book writing, etc.) G F J Nature features, objects in nature that should be protected G F J KNature Natural features, qualities objects that inhave nature a legacy that valueshould for be future protected K Natural qualities that have a legacy value for future Figure 5. Evaluation of the status and trends of cultural services.

The study of the statusFigure and 5 trends. Evaluation of the ofNemunas the status andbest trends as of‘domesticated cultural services livestock. ’, ‘drinking water Delta ecosystem servicesFigure is 5based. Evaluation on an assessment of the status of andfrom trends groundwater of cultural servicessources.’. The worst-case status respondents’ attitudes towards the status and trends of was mentioned by the respondents in question as ecosystem provision,The figures regulation, summarize and the culturalresults of services the evaluation ‘animal of ecosystem resources services used as of material’all respondents. (eg. wool) However, and some (GeneralrespondentsThe International figures differed summarize Classification in their the assessment. results of of the Ecosystem evaluation ‘animal of ecosystem resources services used for of allenergy respondents. production However,’ (eg. some Services).respondents TheFarmers, scalediffered oftourism inecosystem their homesteads assessment. services and was community rated plowing organizations horses). ranked ‘Plant the resources types of welfareused as services a source best as as good,‘domFarmers, 3, mediumesticated tourism 2livestock and homesteadsbad’, ‘1;drinking trends: and water improving community from groundwater– oforganizations energy sources’ (eg ranked ’.willow The worstthe biofuels, types-case statusof straw) welfare was and mentioned services ‘crops, by best the as 3; neutral‘domrespondentsesticated – 2; getting livestock in questionworse’, ‘–drinking as1. 'animal water resources from groundwaterused asfruits material' and sources (eg.other ’.wool) Thecultivated worstand ‘animal- caseplants status resourcesfor foodwas ’ mentioned usedwere for the energy by the respondentsRespondentsproduction in ’ views question(eg. plowing of asthe 'animal horses).state resourcesand ‘Plant trends resources used of as bestusedmaterial' ratedas a (eg. sourceby wool)experts. of energy and Worst ‘animal’ (eg of willow resourcesall are biofuels, the used ‘plant, straw) for energy and ecosystemproduction‘crops, provision, ’fruits (eg. plowingand regulation, other horses). cultivated and cultural‘Plant plants resourcesservices for food ’used mushroomwere as the a sourcebest and rated ofalgae energyby experts.resources’ (eg Worstwillow used of biofuels, allfor areenergy the straw) ‘ plant, and mushroom and algae resources used for energy production’. are‘ crops,presented fruits in Figuresand other 3, 4, cultivated and 5. plants for food’ wereproduction the best’. rated by experts. Worst of all are the ‘plant, mushroomFarmers, and algae tourists resources and community used for energy organizations production were’. the most likely to appreciate the status of regulatory Theservices figures as summarize ‘wildlife and the animalresults habitatof the evaluation protection ’ andFarmers, ‘fire protection tourists’. Worst and communityof all are ‘water organizations flow regulation, Farmers, tourists and community organizations were the most likely to appreciate the status of regulatory of ecosystemflood risk services reduction of ’ alland respondents. ‘soil erosion However,control and preventionwere the ’.most Experts likely ranked to theappreciate type of regulatorythe status service of as services as ‘wildlife and animal habitat protection’ and ‘fire protection’. Worst of all are ‘water flow regulation, some respondents‘biological purificationdiffered in theirusing assessment. microorganisms, activatedregulatory sludge, services plants as and ‘wildlife animals and’, and animal worst habitat‘wind/storm floodFarmers,protection risk reductiontourism’. ’homesteads and ‘soil erosion and communitycontrol and preventionprotection’.’ Expertsand ‘fire ranked protection the type’. Worst of regulatory of all areservice as organizations‘biologicalThe rankedpurification condition the of types usingcultural ofmicroorganisms, serviceswelfare was services evaluated activated ‘ watersimilarly sludge, flow by regulation,all plants respondents: and flood animals best risk of’, allreduction and – ‘nature worst’ and features ‘‘soilwind/storm that protectionenable’. health, nature monitoring – passive use’ and ‘life features that provide aesthetic experience’; worst of all, ‘naturalThe condition features of that cultural have servicesa heritage was value evaluated (objects similarly that future by all generations respondents: could best us ofe allor –enjoy) ‘nature’ and features ‘natural that enableproperties health, asnature a source monitoring of heritage – passiveto identify use with’ and the ‘life history features or culture that provideof the place aesthetic of origin experience’. ’; worst of all, RESEARCH‘natural Thefeatures FOR status RURAL that of relevancehave DEVELOPMENT a heritage of the measures value 2020, (objects VOLUMEenvisaged that 35in futurethe European generations Commission could usdocumente or enjoy) and’ trendsand165 ‘ naturalin the propertiesdevelopment as a source of ecosystem of heritage services to identify in the with area the of historythe Nemunas or culture Delta of werethe place analyzed of origin for the’. evaluation of the directionsThe status of ofmanagement relevance of thethe consequencesmeasures envisaged of climate in change.the European Scale ofCommission rating, conditions: document relevant and –trends 3; neither in the developmentyes/no – 2; of not ecosystem relevant – services1, trend: expectedin the area – 3; of doubtful the Nemunas – 2; unforeseen Delta were– 1. analyzed for the evaluation of the directionsThe of managementsixth, seventh of and the eighthconsequences figures ofsummarize climate change.the assessment Scale of of rating, the relevance conditions: status relevant and prognostic– 3; neither yes/notendencies – 2; not of relevant the management – 1, trend: measures expected of – 3;the doubtful focus group – 2; surveyunforeseen on the – 1.consequences of climate change in the NemunasThe sixth, De lta.seventh and eighth figures summarize the assessment of the relevance status and prognostic tendencies of the management measures of the focus group survey on the consequences of climate change in the Nemunas Delta. DEVELOPMENT OF ECOSYSTEM SERVICE OPPORTUNITIES IN THE NEMUNAS DELTA IN THE Vytautas Pilipavičius, Jan Žukovskis CONTEXT OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

erosion control and prevention’. Experts ranked the The status of relevance of the measures envisaged type of regulatory service as ‘biological purification in the European Commission document and trends in using microorganisms, activated sludge, plants and the development of ecosystem services in the area of animals’, and worst ‘wind/storm protection’. the Nemunas Delta were analyzed for the evaluation of The condition of cultural services was evaluated the directions of management of the consequences of ECONOMICSsimilarly by all respondents: best of all – ‘nature climate change. ScaleDOI: of 10.22616/rrd.26.2020 rating, conditions: relevant.024 – features that enable health, nature monitoring – 3; neither yes/no – 2; not relevant – 1, trend: expected – ECONOMICS DOI: 10.22616/rrd.26.2020.024 passive use’ and ‘life features that provide aesthetic 3; doubtful – 2; unforeseen – 1. experience’; worst of all, ‘natural features that have a The sixth, seventh and eighth figures summarize ECONOMICS DOI: 10.22616/rrd.26.2020.024 ECONOMICSheritage value (objects that future generations could the assessmentDOI: of 10.22616/rrd.26.2020the relevance status .024and prognostic use or enjoy)’ and ‘natural properties as a source of tendencies of the management measures of the focus heritage to identify with the history or culture of the Mitigationgroup survey measures on the consequences of climate change Direction of mitigation place of origin’. A ToMitigationin developthe Nemunas measuresnew and Delta. improve existing state road DirectionStatus of mitigation A infrastructure,To develop new or and part improve thereof, existing which stateconsists road of paved Status infrastructure, or part thereof, which consists of paved Tendency Mitigationroads measures roads DirectionTendency of mitigation A BMitigationTo Renewaldevelop measures new and and development improve existing of transport state road infrastructure Direction ofA mitigation B Renewal and development of transport infrastructure Status A Toinfrastructure, developand improvement new or and part improve thereof,of the existingenvironment which consistsstate roadand of safety paved Status3 A and improvement of the environment and safety 3 Cinfrastructure,roads To promote or thepart collection thereof, which and useconsists of biogas of paved for energy J Tendency2.5 B C To promote the collection and use of biogas for energy Tendency B roadsRenewalproduction and development and to reduce of transportmethane infrastructureemissions J 2.5 B production and to reduce methane emissions 2A B DRenewaland Implement improvement and development waste of the management environment of transport system andinfrastructure safety management and 3 A2 D Implement waste management system management and 1.5 C andTo wasteimprovementpromote incineration the collection of the projectsenvironment and use of andbiogas safety for energy 3 1.5 waste incineration projects J 2.51 B C EToproduction promoteEncourage theand collection companiesto reduce andmethane to increaseuse of emissions biogas their for use energy of renewable I J 2.5 1 B C E Encourage companies to increase their use of renewable I 2 C D productionImplementenergy and sourceswaste to reducemanagement by co methane-financing system emissions projects management and 20.5 energy sources by co-financing projects 1.5 0.5 D FImplement wasteTo incinerationpromote waste themanagement projects co-generation system of managementlow-power biofuels and 1.5 0 F To promote the co-generation of low-power biofuels 1 0 E wasteEncourage incineration companies projects to increase their use of renewable I C GG ForestForest management, fire fire protection, protection, prevention prevention of of I 1 C E Encourageenergy sources companies by co -tofinancing increase projects their use of renewable 0.5 naturalnatural disasters, diseasesdiseases and and pests, pests, conservation conservation and and H H 0.5 DD F energyTo promote sources the by co co-generation-financing ofprojects low-power biofuels 0 breedingbreeding of forestforest geneticgenetic resources resources 0 FG ToForest promote management, the co-generation fire protection, of low -preventionpower biofuels of HH ToTo promote thethe cultivationcultivation of of new new economically economically G Forestnatural management, disasters, diseases fire protection, and pests, prevention conservation of and H D valuable,valuable, productive, bio bio-resistant-resistant forests forests on on priv privateate naturalbreeding disasters, of forest diseases genetic and resources pests, conservation and H G G EE D landland H breedingTo promote of forest the cultivation genetic resources of new economically II EncourageEncourage thethe acquisitionacquisition of of machinery machinery and and H Tovaluable, promote productive, the cultivation bio-resistant of new economically forests on priv ate F F equipmentequipment forfor thethe productionproduction of of wood wood-based-based biofuels biofuels G E valuable,land productive, bio-resistant forests on private J Purchase / modernization of municipal waste G E I JlandEncouragePurchase the / modernizationacquisition of machinery of municipal and waste

F I Encourageequipment the for acquisition the production of machinery of wood - basedand biofuels F J equipmentPurchase /for modernization the production of municipalof wood-based waste biofuels J Purchase / modernization of municipal waste FigureFigure 6. 6.Assessing Assessing the the effects effects of of climate climate changechange on mitigationmitigation management management . . Figure 6. Assessing the effects of climate change on mitigation management. Figure 6. Assessing the effects of climate change on mitigation management. Figure 6. Assessing the effects of climate change on mitigation management. Direction of adaption Direction of adaption DirectionDirection of adaptionadaption Status Tendency A Implement projects to strengthen environmental Status Tendency A Implement projects to strengthen environmental Direction of adaption monitoring and control Directionmonitoring of adaption and control Direction of adaption DirectionB Implement of adaption agri-environment programs Status Tendency A BImplement Implement projects agri- toenvironment strengthen environmentalprograms Status A Tendency A ImplementC To investigate projects the to strengthenagrochemical environmental properties of soil Cmonitoring and control 3A monitoringD ToImplementation investigate and control the of agrochemicalmanagement measures properties for of the soil 3 B Implement agri-environment programs K 2.5 B B DImplement Implementation agri-environment of management programs measures for the K A B C To investigateCuronian Lagoon the agrochemical and the Lower properties Nemunas of soil River 2.5 C Curonian Lagoon and the Lower Nemunas River 3 A2 D ToEImplementation investigateImplement the biodiversity of agrochemical management protection properties measures projects offor soil the 3 2 D E Implement biodiversity protection projects K 2.5 1.5 B ImplementationFCuronian To implement Lagoon of investmentsandmanagement the Lower that measures Nemunas enhance for Riverthe the resilience J K 2.51.5 B C FCuronian To implement Lagoon and investments the Lower thatNemunas enhance River the resilience J 2 1 C E Implementand environmental biodiversity value protection of forest projects ecosystems 2 E ImplementG and environmental biodiversity protectionvalue of forest projects ecosystems 1.510.5 F To implementRestoring forestry investments potential that andenhance introducing the resilience prevention J 1.5 C F GTo implementRestoringmeasures againstinvestmentsforestry fires, potential thatnatural enhance and disasters, introducing the resilience pests andprevention J 01.5 0 C and environmental value of forest ecosystems 1 and measuresenvironmentaldiseases and against climate value fires, ofchange forestnatural-related ecosystems disasters, events pests and I 0.50 D G Restoring forestry potential and introducing prevention 0.5 G RestoringH diseasesTo carry forestry andout maintenanceclimate potential change and and introducing- relatedrepair of events forestprevention road and I 0 D measures against fires, natural disasters, pests and 0 Hmeasures Todrainage carry against systemout fires,maintenance equipment, natural disasters, and to installrepair pests andof forestandmaintain road and I D diseases and climate change-related events I D H diseasesTo drainagecarryforest and outrecreational, climatesystemmaintenance change equipment, environmental and-related repair to eventsinstall of and forest scientific and road maintain and objects H E H ToI drainage carryforestImplement out systemrecreational, maintenance water equipment, resource environmental and to repairmanagement install of and forestand maintain andscientific road protection, and objects drainagewater system supply equipment, and wastewater to install management and maintain projects H G E I forestImplement recreational, water environmental resource management and scientific and objects protection, H F E I forestJ ImplementwaterImplement recreational, supply water projects andresource environmental wastewater to improve management and management the scientific status and protection,of objects surfaceprojects H G E I Implement water resource management and protection, F J waterImplementwater supply bodies and projects wastewater to improve management the status projects of surface G waterK supply and wastewater management projects G F J ImplementwaterImplement bodies projects flood to risk improve management the status projects of surface F J Implement projects to improve the status of surface Figure 7. Assessing the effects of Kclimatewater Implement bodies change floodon management risk management of adaption. projects K waterImplement bodies flood risk management projects K Implement flood risk management projects Figure 7. Assessing the effects of climate change on management of adaption. Figure 7. Assessing the effects of climate change on management of adaption. 166 Figure 7. Assessing the effects of RESEARCHclimate change FOR on managementRURAL DEVELOPMENT of adaption. 2020, VOLUME 35 Figure 7. Assessing the effects of climate change on management of adaption. DEVELOPMENT OF ECOSYSTEM SERVICE OPPORTUNITIESECONOMICSECONOMICS IN THE NEMUNAS DELTA IN THE DOI:DOI: 10.22616/rrd.26.2020 10.22616/rrd.26.2020.024.024 CONTEXT OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE Vytautas Pilipavičius, Jan Žukovskis

Directions of sustainable Measures for sustainable development Directions of sustainable Measures for sustainable development development A The development of the economy does not depend on the development A Thedevelopment development of achievements, of the economy but on does what not is dependrequired on in the Status development of achievements, but on what is required in StatusTendency the future Tendency B theBusiness future is not about profit, but about economic, social B Business is not about profit, but about economic, social A and environmental well-being 3A C andIncreasing environmental soil productivity well-being by biological and K 32.5 B C Increasingtechnological soil means productivity rather than by chemicalbiological and K 2.5 2 B D technologicalProtein food extraction means rather from thanbeef chemicalanimal production to 21.5 D Proteinother protein food foodextraction extraction from sources beef animal production to J C 1.5 1 E otherSeparation protein of foodwater extraction supply systems sources for food and J C 10.5 E Separationtechnological of operationswater supply systems for food and 0.5 0 F technologicalTransition from operations machinery using diesel, gasoline to I 0 D F Transitionmachinery usingfrom machineryother sources using of energy diesel, gasoline to I D G machineryEfficient use using of thermal other sourcesenergy in of industrial energy and G Efficientresidential use buildings of thermal energy in industrial and H E H residentialExtraction ofbuildings energy from renewable sources I Complete sorting of industrial and household waste H E H Extraction of energy from renewable sources G F IJ CompleteEducating sortingthe younger of industrial generation and in householdthe reality ofwaste the J Educatingfuture the younger generation in the reality of the G F K Personal behaviour and behaviour for future generation future prosperity K Personal behaviour and behaviour for future generation Fgure 8. Assessing the consequences of prosperityclimate change for sustainable development.

SummarizedFgure survey 8. Assessingdata of respondents the consequences indicate of climate changebased for food sustainable transition development from livestock. farming to that: other sources of protein-based food’. • Public Fgureroad 8.infrastructure, Assessing the consequencesor part of ofit climate• changeOverall, for sustainablethe direction development of managing. the Summarized survey data of respondents indicate that: consisting of asphalt roads, ‘implementing consequences of climate change is more or • Public road infrastructure, or part of it consisting of asphalt roads, ‘implementing waste management systemwasteSummarized management survey andsystem data waste ofmanagement incinerationrespondents projects andindicate ’ andthat: ‘ upgradingless relevant, and butdeveloping implementation transport trendsinfrastructure in all ’ •andwastePublic ‘improving incineration road environmentalinfrastructure, projects’ protection andor part‘upgrading of and it consistingsafety ’. At ofthedirections asphalt very least, roadsare ‘ capturequestionable, ‘implementing and use in mostof wastebiogas areas. management to reduce systemmethaneand managementdeveloping emissions transport andfor energywaste infrastructure incinerationproduction’ ’andprojects and ‘ promoteSummary’ and the‘upgrading acquisitionof Research and of Resultsdeveloping machinery transportand equipment infrastructure for the ’ andproduction‘improving ‘improving of woodenvironmental-based biofuels protectionprotection’; and and safety ’. AtToday, the very in least,the ‘capturecontext andof useglobal of biogas change, to reduce methanesafety• The ’.emissions At most the relevantvery for least,energy in the‘capture production direction and ’of useand adaptation of ‘promote uncertainty are the ‘water acquisition and resource complexity of management machinery are andandshaping equipmentprotection a new’ forand the production‘biogaswater supply to of reduce wood and - methanewastewaterbased biofuels emissions management’; for energy’, ‘improvement developmental of surface waterbiology, bodies similar’ and ‘floodin complexity risk management to •projectsproductionThe most’. Less’ andrelevant relevant‘promote in theare the direction‘ implementationacquisition of adaptation of of biologicalenvironmental are ‘water systems, resourcemonitoring which management preventsand control the and development projectsprotection’ and’ and ‘water‘machineryimplementation supply andand wastewaterequipmentof forestry managementforpotential the production and’, ‘preventionimprovement of ecosystemmeasures of surface against services water fires, bodies from natural’ andbeing ‘flooddisasters, controlled risk managementpests by and projectsdiseasesof wood-based’. ’;Less relevantbiofuels ’;are ‘implementation of conventionalenvironmental means. monitoring This requiresand control a review projects of’ and • •‘ implementationThe mostRespondents relevant of attributeforestryin the direction thepotential most of urgent adaptationand preventionmeasures traditional to measuresmanaging competencies againstthe consequences fires, and natural the of shapingclimate disasters, changeof current pests in the and diseasesdirectionare ’;‘water of sustainable resource development management – ‘energy and from competencies renewable sources for’, ‘educating future well-being, the younger generation reflecting by changing the way education is organized in the future’ and ‘personal behaviour and behaviour for future • generationsprotectionRespondents’ ’.and At ‘attributethewater very supply theleast, most and‘business urgentwastewater is measures not aboutoutstanding to profit, managing but competencies, about the consequenceseconomic without and ofsocial climatediminishing well -changebeing the’ andin the direction‘managementprotein of-based sustainable’, food‘improvement transition development from livestockof– ‘energysurface farming from futurerenewable to other potential sources sources of of human’, protein ‘educating well-being.-based the food younger’. generation by changingwater• Overall bodiesthe way, ’the and educationdirection ‘flood ofis managingriskorganized management thein theconsequences futureDevelopment’ and of ‘climatepersonal opportunities change behaviour is more could and or behaviour beless described relevant, for in futurebut generationsimplementationprojects’.’. Less At the relevanttrends very in least,areall directions‘implementation ‘business are isquestionable not of abouttwo inprofit, scenarios most butareas. –about waiting economic for the and future social and wellacting-being for’ and ‘proteinenvironmental-based food monitoring transition and from control livestock projects farming’ the to future.other sources of protein-based food’. •andOverall ‘implementation, the direction of forestry of managing potential the and consequences Based of on climate the chronos change (time) is more tops (Figureor less 2),relevant, three but implementationprevention measures trends in all against directions fires, are questionable natural directions in most of areas. ecosystem services development in the disasters, pests and diseases’; Nemunas Delta can be distinguished: • Respondents attribute the most urgent • The development of ecosystem services in the measures to managing the consequences of short term, mitigating or reducing the scale climate change in the direction of sustainable of climate change problems in the present, as development – ‘energy from renewable a consequence of past socio-economic and sources’, ‘educating the younger generation socio-cultural assumptions; by changing the way education is organized • Developing ecosystem services in the medium in the future’ and ‘personal behaviour and term, adapting to the potential consequences behaviour for future generations’. At the very of climate change, and shaping the future least, ‘business is not about profit, but about socio-cultural fabric of community life that economic and social well-being’ and ‘protein- guarantees well-being of population;

RESEARCH FOR RURAL DEVELOPMENT 2020, VOLUME 35 167 DEVELOPMENT OF ECOSYSTEM SERVICE OPPORTUNITIES IN THE NEMUNAS DELTA IN THE Vytautas Pilipavičius, Jan Žukovskis CONTEXT OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

• The long-term development of ecosystem 2. Empirical research has shown that respondents services is based on sustainable development, look at global climate change quite disconnectedly where each sector, private or public or non- as if they were not concerned. They associate governmental, pursuing different goals serves the development of ecosystem services in the the common interest, forming a new, different Nemunas Delta, largely with mitigation of the picture for the future. potential consequences of climate change, with Modern business has gone beyond the economic little adaptation to climate change and with little sample alone. This poses new challenges for to no sustainable development. This suggests innovation, entrepreneurship, competitiveness, that, while the climate change management sustainability and systematisation. Therefore, one measures envisaged by the European Commission must refrain from strictly focusing on one type of are positive, the commitment to them in resource - finance, and introducing a series of different developing ecosystem services in the Nemunas operational management systems that combine social, Delta is poor. cultural, economic, intellectual, ecological and similar 3. The change in natural and artificial processes factors. indicates that we are on the verge of global change, turbulence, as old performance management Conclusions systems stagnate and new ones are still in a 1. The development of ecosystem services in terms of state of birth. Thus, not only the value-added global change has to do with: heritage management, production process but also the process of change mitigating the effects of climate change in the of performance management tools becomes the present-past relationship; intergenerational central axis. coherence management, adapting to the potential consequences of climate change in the present- Acknowledgements future relationship; with sustainable development Preparation of this paper was supported by forming a new socio-cultural and socio-economic funding from European Social Fund (project No nexus in the future-past relationship, capable of 09.3.3-LMT-K-712-01-0178) under grant agreement synchronizing with the pace of change. with the Research Council of Lithuania (LMTLT).

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