INTEGRATED RURAL ENERGY DECISLON SUPPORT SYSTEM by Shaligram Pokharel A thesis presented to the University of Waterloo in fulfilment of the thesis requirement for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Systems Design Engineering Waterloo, Ontario, Canada, 1997 National Library Bibliothèque nationale 191 of Canada du Canada Acquisitions and Acquisitions et Bibtiographic Services services bibliographiques 395 Weijington Street 395. rue Wellington Ottawa ON KIA ON4 Ottawa ON K1A ON4 Canada Canada The author has granted a non- L'auteur a accordé une licence non exclusive licence allowing the exclusive permettant à la National Library of Canada to Bibliothèque nationale du Canada de reproduce, loan, distribute or sel1 reproduire, prêter, distribuer ou copies of this thesis in microform, vendre des copies de cette thèse sous paper or electronic formats. la fome de microfiche/^ de reproduction sur papier ou sur format électronique. The author retains ownership of the L'auteur conserve la propdté du copyright in this thesis. Neither the droit d'auteur qui protège cette thèse. thesis nor substantial extracts fiom it Ni la thèse ni des extraits substantiels may be printed or otherwise de celle-ci ne doivent être imprimés reproduced without the author's ou autrement reproduits sans son permission. autorisation. The University of Waterloo requires the signatures of al1 persons using or photocopying this thesis. Please sign below, and give address and date. (iii) INTEGRATED RUUL ENERGY DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM Abstract Rural areas in developing countries face severe energy problems. At some places, this problem is addressed by ad-hoc policies, which in many instances lack continuity. The Iack of both energy data and the capability to analyse energy options for a given planning area have been the primary causes for misrepresentation of rural energy problems. In this research, a systematic approach for analysing energy situations using a decision support system is proposed. The approach combines a geographical information system and a multiobjective programming method. A geographical information system helps in database management and multiobjective programmirtg helps in the analysis of conflicting objectives such as cost, efficiency, environment, and equity. The proposed system is applied to a rural region and two cases are studied. Ten energy options are discussed and resource allocations are shown for a few of these options. By knowing the resource allocation and evaluating their implementation possibility, the decision makers are expected to be in a position to choose a better option for the planning area. The resdts obtained for the study area indicate that the emphasis should be put on the distribution of efficient fuelwood stoves and exploitation of local energy resources. Any deficit in energy supply thereafter should be met with imported energy sources such as grid electricity and kerosene. The result also indicate that if &e proposed energy allocation codd be implernented, then it can provide rural employment and provides an opportunity to encourage interfuel substitution in the planning area. Acknowledgements 1 talce this opportunity to acknowledge constant encouragement, suggestions, stimulating discussions, and support provided bv my supe~sorProf- M. Chandrashekar during the course of this study and the preparation of this dissertation. 1 want to thank my Dissertation Examination Cornmittee members, Profs P. H. Calamai, D. Dudycha, J.D. Fuller, and G. J. Savage for providing me with valuable comments. I also wish to acknowledge Prof. I.rk R Smith, from University of California, Berkeley for evaiuating mv thesis as an Extemal Examiner and providing me ~ithvaluable comments. 1 would lile to thank my wife, Shrija, for understanding the nature of rnv work and providing me wvith al1 the support. I want to thank mv son, Shamil, who sacrificed his Sunday swimrning lessons dunng the preparation of this dissertation. My parents, Mr. Maniram and Mrs. Krishna Kumari, and my parents-in- law, Dr. S. R Sharma and Mrs. Urmila Dhungel always encouraged me to work for the better. 1 wish to thank them for their constant love and support in my everyday life. I also wish to acknowledge Mr. S. N. Upadhyay, Dr. H. M. Shrestha, Dr. G. R. Bhatta, Dr. D.N. Dhungel, and Mr. J.A. Nugent, who encouraged me to join PhD program here at Waterloo. 1 wish to thank many individuals and offiaals from the watershed for cordially inviting me to their houses and offices, listening to my ideas, and providing me with information. 1 wish to thanlc my colleagues, Dr. D. Rowbotham for helping me to locate the information on Phelvatal watershed and Ms. RC. Neudoerffer for reviewing the draft of the thesis and mdung editorial suggestions. Partial funding for this research \vas obtained From NSERC in the form of Research Assistantship. The researcher also benefitted h-om the NSERC hnded equipment for the analysis. The use of ARUNFO" for the spatial analysis in this thesis \vas made possible, in part, bv the cooperative agreement between the University of Waterloo and Environmental Svstem Research Institute (ESRI, Canada) Ltd. (vii ) My daughter Selene My inspiration for a steady work. (viii) INTEGRAED RURAL ENERGY DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM TABLE OF CONTENTS Contenfs Abstract Acknowledgements List of Tables List of Figures Acronyms 1.0 INTRODUCTION 1.1 Energy Planning Practice 1.2 Energy Modelling 1.2.1 Supply onented models 1.2.2 Demand orien ted models 1.3 Rural Areas and Energy 1.4 Energy Resources 1.4.1 Fuelwood 1.4.2 Charcoal 1.4.3 Crop residues 1.4.4 Animal manure 1.4.5 Hydropower 1.4.6 Solar energy 1.4.7 Wind energy 1.4.8 Biogas 1.4.9 Petroleum products 1.5 Energy Consumption Pattern 1.5.1 Cooking 1.5.2 Lighting 1.5.3 Space heating 1.5.4 Food processing 1.5.5 Other household uses 1.6 Multiobjective Decision Making 1.7 Thesis Organization OBJECTrVES AND CONTRIBmONs 2.1 Purpose and Scope 2.2 Objectives 2.3 Contributions TOOLS FOR DECISION SUPPORT 3.1 Mdtiobjective Prograrnming 3.2 MOP Solution Techniques 3.2.1 Generating tediniques 3.2.2 Preference-based techniques 3.3 The STEP-Method 3.4 Geographical Information System 3.5 GIS and Decision Support System 3.6 Energy Policy Formulation ANALYSE METHODOLOGY The Spatial Model The Multiobjective Model 4.2.1 Energy planning objectives a) Economic objectives b) Equity objective C) Environmental objective 4.2.2 The Constraints a) Sustainable supply of energy resources b) Energy demand C) Lirnit on technology dl Limit on external energy supply Sensitivity Anaiysis The Decision Support System Model DATA COLLECTION 5.1 Spatial Information 5.1.1 Clirnate 5.1-2 Drainage Sys tem 5.1.3 Land use pattern 5.1.4 Demography 5.1.5 Economic condition 5.2 Energy Consumption Pattern SPATIAL ANALYSIS AND RESULTS 6.1 Energy Resources Module 6.1.1 Biomass Resources a) Fuelwood b) Crop residues C) ives tock manure 6.1-2 Nonbiomass Resources a) Hydropower b) Solar energy 6.2 Energy Demand Module 6.3 Energy Balance 6.4 Surnmary 7.0 MULTIOBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND RESULTS 7.1 Energy Coefficients 7.1.1 Immediate /Economic/Financial cos& 7.1.2 Employment coefficients 7.2 Energy Policy Analysis 7.3 Case 1: Watershed as Une Region 7.3.1 Results for Case 1 a) Individual optimization b) First iteration C) Second iteration 7.4 Case 2: Watershed as Sub-regions 7.4.1 Resultç for Case 2 a) Individual optimization b) First iteration C) Second iteration and Standard sensitivity analysis 7.5 Energy Balance 7.6 Sensi tivity Analysis 7.6.1 Sensitivity on Case 1 7.6.2 Sensitivity on Case 2 7.6.3 sensitivity to Changes in the Cons traint Coefficients 7.6.4 Normaiized Sensitivity 7.6.5 Data uncertainty 7.7 Summary 8.0 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 8.1 Decision Support and its Application 8.2 Specific Results from DSS 8.3 Limitation 8.4 Postenor Appendix A: SURVEY FORM Appendix B:COST COEFFICIENTS B.1 Fuelwood B.2 Crop residues B.3 &al manure 8.4 Biogas B.5 Fuelwood stoves B.6 Micro hydro B.7 Solar photovoltaic B.8 Kerosene B.9 Electric bulbs 8.10 Kerosene lamps and stoves Appendix C:EMPLOYMENT COEFFICIENTS C.1 Fuelwood C.2 Crop residues C.3 Biogas C.4 Micro hydro C.5 Solar photovoltaic C.6 Kerosene C.7 Efficient fuelwood stoves Appendix D:FORMULATION OF OBJECTAES AND CONSTRALNTS D.1 Case 1 D. 1.1 The objectives D.1.2 Constraints Set D. 1.3 First Iteration D. 1.4 Second Iteration D.2 Case 2 D.2.1 The Objectives D.2.2 Constraints Set D.2.3 First Iteration D.2.4 Second Iteration Bibliography (xii) List of Tables Table 1.1 Basic information on some of energy models Table 1.2 Energy consumption in PJ in selected developing countries Table 1.3 Residue to crop ratio and calorific values Table 1.4 Animal manure production per year Table 1.5 Fuelwood requiremenû for food processing. Table 3.1 Construction of the Payoff Macrix Table 4.1 Data dictionary for the spatial mode1 Table 4.2 Some possible combinations of i, j, and k. Table 4.3 Extemal and end-use device efficiency. Table 4.4 List of possible objectives and constraints Table 5.1 Maps obtained for Phewatal watershed Table 5.2 Land use changes in Phewatal watershed Table 5.3 Average crop yields in mt/hectare Table 5.4 Population distribution in the watershed Table 5.5 Livestock population in VDCs. Table 5.6 Surveyed sample wards and location. Table 5.7 Energy consumption in Phewatal watershed in GJ Table 6.1 Sustainable fuelwood yields in air-dry mt/ha Table 6.2 Forest area and sustainable fuelwood supply Table 6.3 Accessible fuelwood supply situation in different VDCs Table 6.4 Area under cultivation and total cropped area in hectares Table 6.5 Total cropped area and residue production in different VDCs Table 6.6 Livestock manure for energy use in VDCs.