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October 26, 2010 u vol. 107 u no. 43 u 18233–18742 Cover image: Pictured is a reef shark on the Great Barrier Reef. Laurence J. McCook et al. provide data to demonstrate that, although some marine species remain significantly de- pleted, reef shark, fish, corals, and other populations on the Great Barrier Reef may benefit when marine reserves are integrated into large-scale, adaptively managed networks. See the article by McCook et al. on pages 18278–18285, which is part of the Marine Reserves Special Feature. Image courtesy of Laurence J. McCook. From the Cover 18278 Networking marine resources 18487 Adaptive genome shuffling 18533 Birds and bioenergy landscapes 18545 Predicting cancer cell evolution Contents COMMENTARIES 18235 Does horizontal mixing explain phytoplankton dynamics? THIS WEEK IN PNAS Raphael M. Kudela See companion article on page 18366 18233 In This Issue 18237 Livestock production and the global environment: Consume less or produce better? Henning Steinfeld and Pierre Gerber See companion article on page 18371 LETTERS (ONLINE ONLY) 18239 The tryptophan photoproduct 6-formylindolo[3,2-b] carbazole helps genes jump E161 Chronic fatigue syndrome: Xenotropic murine leukemia Agneta Rannug virus-related virus, murine leukemia virus, both, See companion article on page 18487 or neither? 18241 Population genetics meets cancer genomics Otto Erlwein, Steve Kaye, Mark Robinson, Roland R. Regoes and Myra McClure See companion article on page 18545 E162 Possible widespread low-level occurrence of murine leukemia virus-related gene INAUGURAL ARTICLE sequences in humans W. John Martin 18243 Mental models and human reasoning E163 Reply to Erlwein et al. and Martin: On detection of Philip N. Johnson-Laird murine leukemia virus-related virus gene sequences in blood of patients with chronic fatigue syndrome and healthy blood donors Shyh-Ching Lo, Natalia Pripuzova, Bingjie Li, Anthony L. MARINE RESERVES SPECIAL FEATURE Komaroff, Guo-Chiuan Hung, Richard Wang, and Harvey J. Alter INTRODUCTION 18251 Evolving science of marine reserves: New developments and emerging research frontiers Steven D. Gaines, Sarah E. Lester, Kirsten Grorud-Colvert, Free online through the PNAS open access option. Christopher Costello, and Richard Pollnac PNAS u October 26, 2010 u vol. 107 u no. 43 u iii–viii Downloaded by guest on September 24, 2021 PERSPECTIVES APPLIED PHYSICAL SCIENCES 18278 Adaptive management of the Great Barrier Reef: 18325 Bankruptcy risk model and empirical tests A globally significant demonstration of the benefits Boris Podobnik, Davor Horvatic, Alexander M. Petersen, of networks of marine reserves Branko Uroševic, and H. Eugene Stanley Laurence J. McCook, Tony Ayling, Mike Cappo, J. Howard Choat, Richard D. Evans, Debora M. De Freitas, Michelle 18331 Kinetics of fiber solidification Heupel, Terry P. Hughes, Geoffrey P. Jones, Bruce Mapstone, C. Mercader, A. Lucas, A. Derré, C. Zakri, Helene Marsh, Morena Mills, Fergus J. Molloy, C. Roland S. Moisan, M. Maugey, and P. Poulin Pitcher, Robert L. Pressey, Garry R. Russ, Stephen Sutton, Hugh Sweatman, Renae Tobin, David R. Wachenfeld, and David H. Williamson CHEMISTRY β 18286 Designing marine reserve networks for both 18336 Structural characterization of a -turn mimic within – conservation and fisheries management a protein protein interface Steven D. Gaines, Crow White, Mark H. Carr, Björn Eckhardt, Wolfgang Grosse, Lars-Oliver Essen, and Stephen R. Palumbi and Armin Geyer 18306 Communicating marine reserve science to diverse audiences ENGINEERING Kirsten Grorud-Colvert, Sarah E. Lester, Satie Airamé, 18342 Large-scale in vivo femtosecond laser neurosurgery Elizabeth Neeley, and Steven D. Gaines screen reveals small-molecule enhancer of regeneration 18318 What lies underneath: Conserving the oceans’ Chrysanthi Samara, Christopher B. Rohde, Cody L. genetic resources Gilleland, Stephanie Norton, Stephen J. Haggarty, Jesús M. Arrieta, Sophie Arnaud-Haond, and Mehmet Fatih Yanik and Carlos M. Duarte 18392 Isolation of circulating tumor cells using a microvortex- generating herringbone-chip RESEARCH ARTICLES Shannon L. Stott, Chia-Hsien Hsu, Dina I. Tsukrov, Min Yu, 18256 Decadal trends in marine reserves reveal differential David T. Miyamoto, Belinda A. Waltman, S. Michael rates of change in direct and indirect effects Rothenberg, Ajay M. Shah, Malgorzata E. Smas, George K. R. C. Babcock, N. T. Shears, A. C. Alcala, N. S. Barrett, Korir, Frederick P. Floyd, Jr., Anna J. Gilman, Jenna B. Lord, G. J. Edgar, K. D. Lafferty, T. R. McClanahan, and G. R. Russ Daniel Winokur, Simeon Springer, Daniel Irimia, Sunitha Nagrath, Lecia V. Sequist, Richard J. Lee, Kurt J. Isselbacher, 18262 Marine reserves as linked social–ecological systems Shyamala Maheswaran, Daniel A. Haber, and Mehmet Toner Richard Pollnac, Patrick Christie, Joshua E. Cinner, Tracey Dalton, Tim M. Daw, Graham E. Forrester, Nicholas A. J. Graham, and Timothy R. McClanahan ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES 18266 Detecting larval export from marine reserves 18348 Regional US carbon sinks from three-dimensional R. A. Pelc, R. R. Warner, S. D. Gaines, and C. B. Paris atmospheric CO2 sampling Cyril Crevoisier, Colm Sweeney, Manuel Gloor, 18272 Incorporating biogeography into evaluations of Jorge L. Sarmiento, and Pieter P. Tans the Channel Islands marine reserve network Scott L. Hamilton, Jennifer E. Caselle, Dan P. Malone, 18354 Persistence of climate changes due to a range of and Mark H. Carr greenhouse gases Susan Solomon, John S. Daniel, Todd J. Sanford, 18294 The value of spatial information in MPA network design Daniel M. Murphy, Gian-Kasper Plattner, Christopher Costello, Andrew Rassweiler, David Siegel, Reto Knutti, and Pierre Friedlingstein Giulio De Leo, Fiorenza Micheli, and Andrew Rosenberg 18300 Political economy of marine reserves: Understanding 18634 Ecosystem-specific selection pressures revealed the role of opportunity costs through comparative population genomics Martin D. Smith, John Lynham, James N. Sanchirico, Maureen L. Coleman and Sallie W. Chisholm and James A. Wilson 18312 Placing marine protected areas onto the ecosystem- GEOLOGY based management seascape Benjamin S. Halpern, Sarah E. Lester, and Karen L. McLeod 18360 Biogeographic and evolutionary implications of a diverse paleobiota in amber from the early Eocene of India Jes Rust, Hukam Singh, Rajendra S. Rana, Tom McCann, Lacham Singh, Ken Anderson, Nivedita Sarkar, Paul C. PHYSICAL SCIENCES Nascimbene, Frauke Stebner, Jennifer C. Thomas, Monica Solórzano Kraemer, Christopher J. Williams, Michael S. Engel, Ashok Sahni, and David Grimaldi APPLIED MATHEMATICS 18545 Accumulation of driver and passenger mutations during tumor progression GEOPHYSICS Ivana Bozic, Tibor Antal, Hisashi Ohtsuki, Hannah Carter, 18366 Fluid dynamical niches of phytoplankton types Dewey Kim, Sining Chen, Rachel Karchin, Kenneth W. Francesco d’Ovidio, Silvia De Monte, Séverine Alvain, Kinzler, Bert Vogelstein, and Martin A. Nowak Yves Dandonneau, and Marina Lévy See Commentary on page 18241 See Commentary on page 18235 iv u www.pnas.org Downloaded by guest on September 24, 2021 SUSTAINABILITY SCIENCE ANTHROPOLOGY 18371 Forecasting potential global environmental costs of 18386 Middle Pleistocene lower back and pelvis from an aged livestock production 2000–2050 human individual from the Sima de los Huesos site, Spain Nathan Pelletier and Peter Tyedmers Alejandro Bonmatí, Asier Gómez-Olivencia, Juan-Luis See Commentary on page 18237 Arsuaga, José Miguel Carretero, Ana Gracia, Ignacio Martínez, Carlos Lorenzo, José María Bérmudez de Castro, and Eudald Carbonell SOCIAL SCIENCES APPLIED BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES 18392 Isolation of circulating tumor cells using a microvortex- ECONOMIC SCIENCES generating herringbone-chip 18294 The value of spatial information in MPA network design Shannon L. Stott, Chia-Hsien Hsu, Dina I. Tsukrov, Min Yu, Christopher Costello, Andrew Rassweiler, David Siegel, David T. Miyamoto, Belinda A. Waltman, S. Michael Giulio De Leo, Fiorenza Micheli, and Andrew Rosenberg Rothenberg, Ajay M. Shah, Malgorzata E. Smas, George K. Korir, Frederick P. Floyd, Jr., Anna J. Gilman, Jenna B. Lord, 18300 Political economy of marine reserves: Understanding Daniel Winokur, Simeon Springer, Daniel Irimia, Sunitha the role of opportunity costs Nagrath, Lecia V. Sequist, Richard J. Lee, Kurt J. Isselbacher, Martin D. Smith, John Lynham, James N. Sanchirico, Shyamala Maheswaran, Daniel A. Haber, and Mehmet Toner and James A. Wilson 18325 Bankruptcy risk model and empirical tests BIOCHEMISTRY Boris Podobnik, Davor Horvatic, Alexander M. Petersen, Branko Uroševic, and H. Eugene Stanley 18398 Structural basis for recognition of arginine methylated Piwi proteins by the extended Tudor domain Ke Liu, Chen Chen, Yahong Guo, Robert Lam, Chuanbing PSYCHOLOGICAL AND COGNITIVE SCIENCES Bian, Chao Xu, Dorothy Y. Zhao, Jing Jin, Farrell MacKenzie, Tony Pawson, and Jinrong Min 18243 Mental models and human reasoning Philip N. Johnson-Laird 18404 Coupling of tandem Smad ubiquitination regulatory factor (Smurf) WW domains modulates target specificity P. Andrew Chong, Hong Lin, Jeffrey L. Wrana, SOCIAL SCIENCES and Julie D. Forman-Kay fl 18375 Spontaneous emergence of social in uence in 18410 Mitochondrial Lon protease regulates mitochondrial online systems DNA copy number and transcription by selective Jukka-Pekka Onnela and Felix Reed-Tsochas degradation of mitochondrial transcription factor A (TFAM) SUSTAINABILITY SCIENCE Yuichi Matsushima, Yu-ichi Goto, and Laurie S. Kaguni 18256 Decadal trends in marine reserves