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Inundation Exposure Assessment for Majuro Atoll, Republic of the Marshall Islands Using a High-Accuracy Digital Elevation Model

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Inundation Exposure Assessment for Majuro Atoll, Republic of the Marshall Islands Using a High-Accuracy Digital Elevation Model remote sensing Article Inundation Exposure Assessment for Majuro Atoll, Republic of the Marshall Islands Using A High-Accuracy Digital Elevation Model Dean Gesch 1,* , Monica Palaseanu-Lovejoy 2, Jeffrey Danielson 1 , Charles Fletcher 3, Maria Kottermair 4 , Matthew Barbee 3 and Andrea Jalandoni 5 1 U.S. Geological Survey, Earth Resources Observation and Science Center, Sioux Falls, SD 57198, USA; [email protected] 2 U.S. Geological Survey, Geology, Minerals, Energy, & Geophysics Science Center, Reston, VA 20192, USA; [email protected] 3 Coastal Geology Group, Department of Geology and Geophysics, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI 96822, USA; fl[email protected] (C.F.); [email protected] (M.B.) 4 Pacific Islands Climate Adaptation Science Center, University of Guam, Mangilao 96923, Guam; [email protected] 5 Griffith Centre for Social and Cultural Research, Griffith University, Queensland, QLD 4122, Australia; a.jalandoni@griffith.edu.au * Correspondence: [email protected]; Tel.: +1-605-594-6055 Received: 8 November 2019; Accepted: 27 December 2019; Published: 2 January 2020 Abstract: Majuro Atoll in the central Pacific has high coastal vulnerability due to low-lying islands, rising sea level, high wave events, eroding shorelines, a dense population center, and limited freshwater resources. Land elevation is the primary geophysical variable that determines exposure to inundation in coastal settings. Accordingly, coastal elevation data (with accuracy information) are critical for assessments of inundation exposure. Previous research has demonstrated the importance of using high-accuracy elevation data and rigorously accounting for uncertainty in inundation assessments. A quantitative analysis of inundation exposure was conducted for Majuro Atoll, including accounting for the cumulative vertical uncertainty from the input digital elevation model (DEM) and datum transformation. The project employed a recently produced and validated DEM derived from structure-from-motion processing of very-high-resolution aerial imagery. Areas subject to marine inundation (direct hydrologic connection to the ocean) and low-lying lands (disconnected hydrologically from the ocean) were mapped and characterized for three inundation levels using deterministic and probabilistic methods. At the highest water level modeled (3.75 ft, or 1.143 m), more than 34% of the atoll study area is likely to be exposed to inundation (68% chance or greater), while more than 20% of the atoll is extremely likely to be exposed (95% chance or greater). The study demonstrates the substantial value of a high-accuracy DEM for assessing inundation exposure of low-relief islands and the enhanced information from accounting for vertical uncertainty. Keywords: inundation; flooding; sea-level rise; digital elevation model; vertical accuracy; uncertainty; confidence level; error propagation; coastal vulnerability 1. Introduction Low-lying islands are vulnerable to inundation (coastal flooding), whether the increased water levels are from episodic events (storm surge, wave run-up, king tides) or from chronic conditions (long-term sea-level rise). Atolls are particularly vulnerable to the effects of sea-level rise in the form of Remote Sens. 2020, 12, 154; doi:10.3390/rs12010154 www.mdpi.com/journal/remotesensing Remote Sens. 2019, 11, x 2 of 20 Remote Sens. 2020, 12, 154 2 of 20 (long-term sea-level rise). Atolls are particularly vulnerable to the effects of sea-level rise in the form of shoreline erosion, inundation, and saltwater intrusion into fresh groundwater [1]. Numerous shorelinestudies have erosion, assessed inundation, climate and change-driven saltwater intrusion impacts into and fresh other groundwater environmental [1]. Numerous factors studieson the haveresilience assessed of low-lying climate change-drivenislands, including impacts biophysi andcal other changes environmental [2–8] and factorsbiodiversity on the consequences resilience of low-lying[9,10]. islands, including biophysical changes [2–8] and biodiversity consequences [9,10]. Coastal vulnerability is inherently spatial, and this geographic dependence requires that risk assessments of places, people, and assets be locationlocation specificspecific [[11].11]. For suchsuch assessments,assessments, mappingmapping and characterization of physical hazards are critical, and the need is great for detailed,detailed, localized analyses rather than more general coarse-scale assessmentsassessments [[6].6]. In particular, detailed knowledge of the topography is essential for assessing coastal inundation exposure, exposure, especially especially on on low-lying low-lying lands, lands, and the lack of suitable elevation data has been noted [[1,12–14].1,12–14]. Majuro Atoll, Republic of the Marshall Islands, in the central Pacific Pacific bears all the marks of high coastal vulnerability, including low-lying islands [1 [133],], rising sea level (far greater than the global average) [15,16], [15,16], high wave events [[17,18],17,18], erodingeroding shorelines [[3],3], a dense population center in an expanding urban area [[3],3], and limited freshwater resourcesresources [[19].19]. Existing general assessments [2,9,10] [2,9,10] lack the spatially explicit detail that is needed for informing local adaptation planning, in part due to the coarse nature of the topographic topographic information used. New New remote remote sensing-derived sensing-derived high-resolution, high-resolution, high-accuracy elevationelevation datadata for for Majuro Majuro Atoll, Atoll, including including comprehensive comprehensive uncertainty uncertainty information information [13], represent[13], represent a valuable a valuable resource forresource coastal hazardfor coasta assessment.l hazard Previous assessment. research Previous has demonstrated research has the importancedemonstrated of usingthe importance high-accuracy of using elevation high-accuracy data and rigorously elevation accountingdata and rigorously for uncertainty accounting in coastal for floodinguncertainty assessments in coastal [20 flooding–26]. The assessments focus of this paper[20–26]. is a quantitativeThe focus of inundation this paper exposure is a quantitative assessment completeinundation with exposure best practices assessment for considering complete with vertical best uncertainty, practices for that considering demonstrates vertical the advantages uncertainty, of usingthat demonstrates a remote sensing-derived the advantages high-resolution, of using a remo high-accuracyte sensing-derived elevation high-r modelesolution, to produce high-accuracy spatially explicitelevation hazard model information. to produce Thespatially results explicit are a firsthazard for Majuroinformation. Atoll andThe areresults useful are for a first climate for Majuro change adaptationAtoll and are planning useful for and climate mitigation. change adaptation planning and mitigation. 2. Materials and Methods 2.1. Study Area Majuro AtollAtoll (Figure(Figure1 ),1), located located in in the the central central Pacific Pacific Ocean Ocean approximately approximately 3800 3800 km km southwest southwest of Hawaii,of Hawaii, is ais roughlya roughly oval-shaped oval-shaped string string of of over over 60 60 low-relief low-relief islands islands that that encircleencircle aa lagoonlagoon of about 2 300 kmkm2. It isis inin thethe Ratak Ratak (eastern) (eastern) Chain Chain of of the the Marshall Marshall Islands Islands and and is centered is centered at 7 ◦at07 7°070N latitude′N latitude and 171and◦ 12171°120E longitude.′E longitude. Majuro, Majuro, the capital the capital city of city the Republicof the Republic of the Marshall of the Marshall Islands (RMI), Islands is located(RMI), atis 2 thelocated eastern at the end eastern of the end atoll. of Thethe atoll. total landThe total area land of the area atoll of is the about atoll 10 is kmabout. The 10 km portion2. The of portion the atoll of usedthe atoll in this used study in this is thestudy entire is the connected entire connected southern halfsouthern that runs half fromthat runs Laura from in the Laura west in to the Rita west in the to northeast—aRita in the northeast—a length of about length 48 of km. about 48 km. Figure 1. Majuro Atoll, Republic of the Marshall Islands. Remote Sens. 2020, 12, 154 3 of 20 2.2. Digital Elevation Models The high-resolution, high-accuracy digital elevation model (DEM) used in this assessment is derived from unmanned aircraft system (UAS) imagery processed with structure-from-motion (SfM) techniques [13]. The 1-m spatial resolution DEM represents bare ground conditions, as vegetation and buildings have been removed (seawalls and other shoreline protection structures were not removed). The dense three-dimensional (3D) point cloud was automatically classified in Agisoft PhotoScan into two classes, ground points (bare earth) and unclassified (vegetation, buildings, water, and noise) points. This classification was further manually and iteratively refined to derive a bare-earth DEM. Each iteration consisted in manually comparing the previous bare-earth DEM with the 3D red, green, blue (RGB) colored point cloud and area SfM orthomosaic to identify and fix points misclassified by the automatic classifier. Numerous global or near-global DEMs are available and they have been used extensively for sea-level rise and coastal flooding assessments [25]. These DEMs have been assessed for Majuro Atoll to help demonstrate the advantages of the high-accuracy elevation data for inundation
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