Arab Reform Brief

March 27 2009

Algeria’s Presidential Elections: The Stakes Have Been Set in Advance

*† Mustafa Muhammad

On the 9 th of April, will hold the country’s fourth multi-candidate elections since 1995. The elections are seen as a formal confirmation of the extension of Mr. terms as president, and thus little is expected in the way of surprises. The other candidates who have been certified to run by the Constitutional Council are supporters of President Bouteflika, or as Algerians refer to them, his “rabbits.” An amendment passed to the constitution in 2008 predetermined the outcome of the elections, despite criticisms and protests against the “constitutionalization of authoritarian rule.” Many leading politicians have declined to run in the elections, convinced that matters have been decided in advance; they have not fallen into the trap of the 2004 elections, which led some of them to believe that they might have some relative room for maneuver. The rising oil profits of recent years, along with the international situation associated with the “war on terror,” have helped the authorities to undermine the opposition. This it is now apparent that the only challenger to President Bouteflika in the elections will be abstentions by the electorate, in what has become a deeply-rooted phenomenon and a clear expression of the gaping chasm between the current political regime and the citizenry.

* A writer and journalist from Algeria.

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A constitutional amendment decided the The result is that Algerians have stopped outcome of the elections believing in the elections or in the institutions of state.” The presidential elections will go ahead on This initiative managed to cause some April 9 th , 2009, even though the outcome was discomfort to the regime, but proved unable to determined in advance on November 12 th , 2008, dispel the prevailing sense of political apathy, when the constitution was amended to abrogate since the entire political landscape and all the Article 74, which had previously limited the major media outlets are monopolized by the number of presidential terms to two. The parties of the ruling political coalition and amendment has allowed President Bouteflika to organizations within the orbit of the regime. serve out his two terms in office (1999 – 2004 Thus the debate on the merits of amending the and 2004 – 2009) and then run for office once constitution did not take place. And this despite again. the fact that the two-term limit had been Since the Algerian political system remains introduced into the 1996 constitution by the closed and the country’s political life lackluster, regime itself, during the presidency of Liamine commentators have all drawn the conclusion Zeroual, in order to show some democratic that the game is over. The elections of April 9 th intent in compensation for the revocation of have become a mere formality, given that no basic provisions of the constitution of February other candidate is able to rival the president’s 23 rd , 1989. tight grip on the state media or the monopoly he The constitutional amendment significantly has held for years on the country’s audio and reduced the authority of the directly-elected visual media. No discussion has taken place on National People’s Assembly and created a the advantages or otherwise of amending second chamber, the , a Article 74, as the authorities did not want this third of whose members are directly appointed discussion to take place. And as the opposition by the President of the Republic. Three-quarters has been marginalized and cannot access the of the Council of the Nation’s members are country’s major media outlets, it was unable to needed to approve provisions, and consequently put forward its arguments against the this institution allows the president – via its amendment. appointed members – to watch over the Despite their conviction that setting a limit on National People’s Assembly. Thus the limit the number of president terms represents imposed on the number of presidential terms progress towards the principle of the transfer of came to make up for the reduction in the power and towards avoiding a presidency for powers of the National People’s Assembly, as a life, there is a prevalent sense among the token of respect for the principle of the rotation educated elites of the futility of opposing the of power. However, this “progress” was authority. However, in 2007 a group of reversed with the constitutional amendment of academics and journalists launched the “Civil February 12 th , 2008. The regime justified the Initiative for Respect of the Constitution” with amendment on the basis that it was, “the right the aim of countering attempts to of the people to exercise its legitimate right to “constitutionalize authoritarian rule.” The group select its leaders and to renew their confidence issued a letter condemning “the ongoing breach in it with full sovereignty.” However, the of the constitution as a means of governance, debate was one-sided, as it was impossible for which has exacerbated the country’s problems: the opponents of the amendment to present a suicidal level of desperation among the their views in the audiovisual media. And while young, the rise in terrorism, the proliferation of it was sometimes possible for the opposition to corruption and the entrenchment of poverty. express its position in some of the private 3 newspapers, this did not allow it to compete practical terms, this has meant that the National seriously with the official discourse. People’s Assembly lost the only means at its However, with this same constitutional disposal of monitoring or challenging the amendment the regime acknowledged that its actions of the executive authority. The real rival is not the marginalized and frustrated undermining of the role of the National political opposition, but the behavior of the People’s Assembly is an indication of an voters, who have become increasingly reluctant undermining of the role of the political parties. to take part in the elections. Algeria has adopted the logic of concentrating Unlike Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, power at the presidential level, which has been who took a risk by asking the citizens for their an enduring goal of President Bouteflika since opinion in a referendum, constitutional change 1999 and was secured by the amendment to the in Algeria was made through the parliament, constitution. Irrespective of the person or name and was carried through the two chambers by of the president, this tendency reflects a deep- 500 votes to 21, with 8 abstentions. These seated fear within the regime of a new scenario Soviet-like results in a country where opinions akin to the victory of the Islamic Salvation vary across the different sectors of society are Front in the legislative elections of December an indication of a lack of genuine pluralism 1991. Since then it has been an abiding policy within the state institutions. And this was how of the regime to reconsider the political and the constitutional amendment was passed: media openness that emerged following the without a discussion beforehand and by a show youth rebellion of October 1988, an event that of hands. Prime Minister Ahmed Ouyahia shook the foundations of the single-party defended the amendment as “the right of regime. Algeria to bolster its stability.” To reconsider this openness, exemplified by the The three parties of the Presidential Alliance constitution of February 23 rd , 1989, which the (the National Liberation Front, the National leading figures of the regime accused of having Rally for Democracy, and the Movement of plunged Algeria into a bloody crisis, the Society for Peace) and the Workers’ Party (a authorities strove to establish an “exclusive Trotskyist party with 26 deputies in the democracy.” Thus despite the external parliament) endorsed the amendment. The only appearance of pluralism (in the form of political exceptions to the rule were the representatives parties and a private press), it is subject to of the Rally for Culture and Democracy, who censorship and lacks any significant margin of voted against it before walking out of the action. Algeria is no innovator in this regard, as chamber. The party’s chairman, Mr. Said Sadi, many authoritarian Arab regimes strive to condemned what he described as a new coup soften their image by presenting an outward d’état. appearance of democracy, while in parallel taking measures to bar any prospect of change. Constitutional change was not restricted to the In the immediate aftermath of the ratification of abolition of the two-term presidential limit, but the constitutional amendment, President also revoked the position of Prime Minister, Bouteflika underscored his firm belief in replacing it with that of “First Minister.” The democracy. But he asserted that democracy change was not in name only: according to the cannot “constitute a single, universal model for former constitution the Prime Minister was all nations, a model that must be adhered to and accountable to the National People’s Assembly, applied at all times and in all places.” As far as whereas under the amendment the First the opposition was concerned, with this Minister answers to the President alone. In rejection of the global model, Algeria had 4 adopted the “Arab model” of the presidency for in the elections. In 1999, the candidacy of life. Abdel Aziz Bouteflika, who enjoyed the The constitutional amendment finally backing of the military, came up against first- persuaded most prominent politicians that there rate candidates like Hussein Aïat Ahmad, was no contest, which made them largely Mouloud Hamrouche, Ahmed Taleb al-Ibrahimi reluctant to run in the elections. The lack of and Abdallah Jaballah. These politicians prominent national figures among the entered the battleground following assurances candidates has proved to be a real problem for made by President Liamine Zeroual of an open the regime. ballot, but then withdrew from the race, condemning massive vote rigging in favor of Regaining status as a higher goal than Abdelaziz Bouteflika. democracy In 2004, former Prime Minister Ali bin Fliss was “persuaded” to submit his candidacy. A Abdel Aziz Bouteflika, in power since 1999, large portion of the press and “civil society” fell has already won the elections, since all the for a well orchestrated campaign of authorities’ efforts to induce Algeria’s leading misinformation that claimed that the army had political figures to nominate themselves have abandoned President Abdelaziz Bouteflika. The come to naught. The public media and all the campaign succeeded, despite clear indications state’s resources are in the hands of the that the result had been predetermined, and that President, which virtually rules out any chance bin Fliss and the other candidates had been of a break-through by any of the other assigned the unenviable role of “rabbits.” Some candidates. Elections are usually the crowning of the newspapers biased against President moment of a competitive political process in Abdelaziz Bouteflika helped to generate an which the voting citizens are able to hear the atmosphere that lent some sense of credibility political platforms of the various parties and to the elections. politicians. However, in Algeria the political The presidential elections appear to have been arena has effectively been frozen, in the name entirely devoid of competition, save for some of the state of emergency that has been in effect disagreements within the regime. In 2004, since 1992 and due to the need to implement Chief of Staff General Muhammad al-Amari the policy of national reconciliation. In the was presented as an opponent of the extension circumstances, there is nothing for the of Abdelaziz Bouteflika’s mandate and as a candidates to do – since Algeria has reverted to supporter of Mr Ali bin Fliss behind the scenes. the situation that prevailed prior to 1988 during The newspapers that backed Ali bin Fliss the era of single party politics – other than to against Bouteflika saw the position of General play the role of rabbits. al-Laamari – who was a genuine adversary of As explained by the former Secretary General Bouteflika – as evidence that the army as an of the National Liberation Front, Mr. Abdel institution had taken its stance. And they in turn Hamid Mehri, the Algerian political regime arrived at the wrong conclusion regarding the stands opposed to the genuine practice of regime as a whole. The misjudgment made in democracy, but is concerned to maintain a 2004 (on the part of certain politicians, such as democratic façade. Thus the fact that there are bin Fliss and Sadi, or the newspapers) was the candidates of standing in the election lends result of the regime’s extraordinary ability to credibility to the vote and acts as an incentive orchestrate the external appearance of for Algerians to head to the polling booths. democracy. This time however, the regime has failed, Objectively speaking, all indicators pointed against the norm, to draw major figures to run towards the extension of Bouteflika’s term in 5 office. The strong arm of the regime, in which been able to serve out a full term in office. And the army and intelligence apparatus play major if the equilibrium reached by President roles, took a very negative view of the Bouteflika was based on his knowledge of the democratic openness that developed after regime, then the economic and international October 1988! Between 1989 and 1991, Algeria conditions were also critical in supporting his entered a period of extensive political and efforts. economic reform in the midst of a severe social Two significant events helped to consolidate crisis. On December 26 th 1991, this fraught the position of President Bouteflika and his political situation gave rise to the victory of the regime, namely a sustained increase in in the legislative petroleum prices from 1999 until 2008 and the elections. The party’s victory brought about a events of September 2001. The first bestowed major crisis within the regime, which led to the the state with unprecedented financial resignation of President Al Shadli bin Jadid and resources, while the second turned the way in the calling off of the elections, and drew which western states viewed the Algerian Algeria into a prolonged cycle of violence. regime. Since that period, and after the removal from Financial prosperity and an international setting power of the reformist camp, represented by defined by the “war on terror” allowed the Mouloud Hamrouche and Abdel Hamid al- regime to continuously undermine the Mehri, the regime has abandoned the process of opposition. However, this undermining was deepening democracy, and instead sought to been accompanied by a restoration of consolidate its own tenuous position. The confidence among the citizenry. For just as the purpose of the constitutional amendments opposition parties have no margin for action, so introduced in 1996 and 2008 was to remove the ruling parties do not represent institutions to what little democratic progress there was from which citizens engaging in ongoing acts of the constitution of February 1986. The lack of rioting and violence to voice social demands, excitement surrounding the upcoming elections can resort. Moreover, these citizens are attests to the fact that this time around the translating their lack of conviction into an various elements of the political regime, or increase in the number of abstentions and what Algerians refer to as the “real power” or boycotters; indeed, abstention represents the decision-makers, are in unison over the only competition to Bouteflika and his regime extension of the term of the current president. in the elections of April 9 th , 2009. The minor disagreements that surfaced in 2004 have disappeared and Abdelaziz Bouteflika is Bouteflika: Five allies, one rival now the uncontested head of the regime. And herein lies one of the most salient lessons of the The scene is now set for the presidential upcoming elections: Bouteflika, as the founder elections. In addition to President Abdelaziz of the regime alongside the late President Bouteflika, five other candidates are standing: Houari Boumediene, has an intimate knowledge Louisa Hanoune of the Workers’ Party, Moussa of its mechanisms and the internal rules of the Touati of the Algerian National Front, Ali game. He knew how to balance between the Fawzi Rebaine of the ‘Ahd 54, Mohammed various centers of power and to stabilize a Djahid Younsi of the Movement for National regime that had been in the grips of a crisis Reform, and independent candidate Said Belaid since the fall of Al Shadli bin Jadid in January Mohamed Oussaid. Together they are supposed 1992. And indeed since that time no head of to speak for the various political and ideological state, whether appointed (such as Mohammed currents within the country, even if they do not Boudiaf) or elected (like Liamine Zeroual) had represent them. Three candidates (Fawzi 6

Rebaine, Moussa Touati and Mohamed Said) Minister of the Interior Yazid Zerhouni, who classify themselves as part of the nationalist asserted that those calling for a boycott had no camp, along with President Abdelaziz right to conduct activities in the public sphere. Bouteflika. Ali Fawzi Rebaine and Mohamed First Minister Ahmed Ouyahia also accused Said Belaid originate from the tribal area of them of threatening the stability of the country. Amazigh, and are supposed to offset the Even the mosques have been drawn into the boycott by the two ruling parties there, the campaign to mobilize voters, with the Minister and the Rally for Culture of Religious Affairs and Awqaf issuing a fatwa and Democracy. that the advocates of the boycott are “advocates Abdelaziz Bouteflika is standing as an of corruption.” All this bears out the fact that “independent candidate,” backed by the parties whether or not voters turn out to vote is the in the Presidential Alliance and countless only issue at stake in the upcoming Algerian organizations within the orbit of the regime. elections. Algerians, who are living in difficult This line-up of representatives is replete with circumstances, have distanced themselves from members of what is referred to as the nationalist political life and become indifferent to political stream,and is further bolstered by the fact that discourse, and abstaining is their way of Louisa Hanoune, the Workers’ Party candidate, expressing their discontent. The desire to is also of a nationalist stripe. abstain, while it may not necessarily ensure that Djahid Younsi, who gained control over the the voice of the opposition parties is heard, leadership of the Islamic party certainly does highlight the huge gap that lies .following a controversial between the regime and the citizenry ( اح)”Reform“ judicial decision against Abdallah Jaballah, More ominously, after fifteen years of violence, very loosely represents the Islamic stream, the lack of openness within the regime has which remains powerful within the community. entrenched the belief among a portion of the Mohamed Said, a close ally of former Minister younger populace that violence is the sole of Foreign Affairs Ahmed Taleb al-Ibrahimi, means of effecting change. Mr. Abdel Hamid al has hinted that in return for his candidacy he Mehri has accurately depicted this state of expects to be able to establish a political party. affairs: “In every democratic country, elections All the candidates whom the Socialist Forces are an instrument of peaceful and consensual party has labeled a support committee for change on the part of society, and this peaceful Bouteflika do not criticize the president, but instrument of change is more vital than others instead direct all their criticism at the for Algeria, because for more than fifteen years proponents of the boycott. the country has been living the tragedy of The phenomenon of abstention took root during attempts to bring about change through the legislative and local elections held in the violence. This peaceful instrument of change spring and autumn of 2007, when according to was supposed to be safeguarded and given the official figures the voter turn-out rate failed to chance to carry out its functions fully. reach 35%, the lowest level of participation However, our elections have been designed in recorded since the introduction of multi-party such a way as to preclude any change. The politics in 1989. To persuade Algerians to go to elections have been organized for a number of the ballot boxes the authorities tried to spread years now so as to block all avenues of peaceful some good news, announcing an increase in change. This constitutes a lack of appreciation wages to follow the elections, a rise in student for the heavy responsibility that falls to public grants, and the writing off of debts owed by officials, particularly given the severe ordeal farmers. The sensitivity of the authorities that the country has endured as a result of towards abstaining voters was confirmed by 7 attempts to bring about change through allows voters to exercise their right to select violence. their leaders. Do these conditions obtain in Some basic conditions must be met if the Algeria, to allow change to be achieved through presidential or legislative elections are to means other than violence? The answer seems exercise their function as a means of peaceful to be negative, even though the Algerian regime change that brings an end to the violence: an – in line with the trend among all authoritarian open political space to allow for competing Arab regimes – is keen to furnish a veneer of political platforms, independent political parties pluralism. The question of reform as an that are able to undertake activities on a regular alternative to violence remains on the table, and basis, and a free media (radio and television). the preservation of the status quo cannot The above comprise the minimum conditions provide the answer. required for a diverse political landscape that