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Company Update September 27, 2018 OUTPERFORM n BTS Group Holdings (BTS TB) Share Price: Bt9.35 Target Price: Bt10.50 (+12.3%) Taking to the skies with BTS sky train . Expect 20% p.a. core profit growth (3-year CAGR) up to FY21F Initial Coverage led by organic growth, Green Line Extension, Pink and Yellow lines, and strong profit contribution from VGI (+25% p.a.) CH | CH . Potential upside from High-Speed Rail project to link 3 airports and new concession to manage the entire Green Line after 2029 . OUTPERFORM, Bt10.50 TP; upside risk from new concessions, a growing digital economy, and inorganic growth Back to growth stage after four years of flat growth BTS, a conglomerate involved in mass transit projects, is a familiar name for investors who ride the Skytrain to Bangkok CBD during rush hour. BTS’s earnings growth has been flat since FY14 because they had sold net farebox revenue from core network (23.5 km) to BTSGIF in FY14. BTS has 33% stake at BTSGIF. The company also did not find suitable investments to fill the earnings vacuum due to delays in the auction of new mass transit lines. However, BTS has secured 95.7 km of four new COMPANY RESEAR COMPANY Sunthorn THONGTHIP mass transit line projects under both gross-cost and net-cost in the past 662 - 659 7000 ext 5009 two years. These projects will be completed in FY19-21. VGI, a subsidiary [email protected] involved in the media business, targets to grow profit by 33% p.a. (vs our estimate of 25%) to Bt2bn by FY21F led by an expanding BTS mass Key Data transit network and synergies with Rabbit’s and Kerry’s platforms. These 12-mth high/low (Bt) 9.9 / 7.75 factors would support 20% p.a. earnings growth for BTS up to FY21F. Market capital (Btm/US$m) 110,161 / 3,398 Near-term upside from two new projects 3m avg. turnover (Btm/US$m) 230 / 7.1 Free float (%) 58 We see potential upside for BTS if they win the High-Speed Rail project Issued shares (m shares) 11,845 to link 3 airports (Bt224bn) for 50-year PPP net-cost. The High-Speed Major shareholders: Rail will accept bids on 12 Nov and the winner will be announced in -KANJANAPAS KEEREE’ GROUP 41.1 1Q19. BSR JV has experience in government projects, managing BTS -THAI NVDR 7.9 Skytrain network in Thailand, and potential that they would partner with -BANGKOK BANK PUBLIC 4.6 PTT. We see high chance that they could secure this project. We see another upside from the possibility that BMA would amend the O&M Share Price Performance contract of the entire green line after 2029 to 30-year PPP net-cost scheme. OUTPERFORM, Bt10.50 TP; defensive play with potential upside Our TP is based on SoTP valuation. BTS will be a major beneficiary of Bangkok’s rapid urbanization and expanding mass transit network because they operate the core network in Bangkok CBD, and monetization of Rabbit Line Pay as it is a prime candidate to be Thailand’s main digital payment platform. The short-term catalysts would be positive earnings momentum in 3QFY19F and bidding for new concession contracts; the High-Speed Rail in 3QFY19 and the entire Green Line in 2019. YTD 1Mth 3Mth 12Mth Absolute (%) 12.0 1.6 2.2 8.8 Financial Summary (Btm) Relative to index (%) 12.3 (1.3) (3.1) 3.9 Year to March FY17 FY18 FY19F FY20F FY21F Sales (Btm) 6,809 12,171 29,399 29,292 36,531 Krungsri Securities vs Market Growth (%) 27.2 78.8 141.6 -0.4 24.7 Positive Neutral Negative EBITDA (Btm) 3,626 4,450 5,936 7,573 9,716 Market Growth (%) 44.2 22.7 33.4 27.6 28.3 Recommend 14 2 0 Recurring profit (Btm) 1,417 2,515 2,541 3,350 4,375 Krungsri Market % +/- Growth (%) (30.0) 77.4 1.1 31.8 30.6 Target Price (Bt) 10.5 10.9 (4.0) Net profit (Btm) 2,003 4,416 2,541 3,350 4,375 ’19 Net Profit (Btm) 2,541 2,698 (5.8) Normalized EPS (Bt) 0.12 0.21 0.21 0.28 0.37 ’20 Net Profit (Btm) 3,350 3,471 (3.5) Growth (%) (30.1) 77.4 1.0 31.8 30.6 Normalized PE (x) 62.2 36.3 43.6 33.1 25.3 Krungsri's earnings revision DPS (Bt) 0.34 0.35 0.17 0.24 0.30 2019F 2020F Yield (%) 4.6% 4.5% 1.8% 2.5% 3.2% Earnings revision (%) - - BVPS (Bt) 3.6 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.6 Source: Bloomberg, Krungsri Securities P/BV (x) 2.09 2.25 2.69 2.66 2.60 Disclaimer: This publication constitutes information disclosed to the public and believed to be reliable but its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. All opinions, suggestions, or projections are for informational purposes only and shall not be construed as an inducement for the sale or purchase of securities. Amendments to this publication may be made without prior notice. Investors are urged to exercise caution in making a decision to invest in any securities. 1 Initial Coverage | BTS September 27, 2018 Business BTS Group Holdings PCL (BTS) is the first provider of mass-transit services in Thailand. It is a privately-owned conglomerate. The company is also involved in complementary businesses - Media, Property and Services. Revenue from Mass Transit and Media accounted for 65% and 28% of FY18 revenue, respectively, while both businesses contributed almost 100% of operating EBITDA in FY18. FY18 Operating revenue breakdown FY18 Operating EBITDA breakdown Source: Company data Source: Company data BTS operates the mass transit business through majority-owned subsidiary, Bangkok Mass Transit System Public Co., Ltd. (BTSC). BTSC is currently the exclusive concessionaire and operator of the Green Line, Bus Rapid Transit system, and future operator and majority-JV partner for the Pink and Yellow monorail lines. BTS is involved in the Media business through majority-owned subsidiary, VGI Global Media PCL (VGI). VGI is the leading Out-of-Home Media company in Thailand. It is also expanding into payment-based data platform, the “Rabbit” ecosystem, to earn payment and advertising income from Rabbit Line Pay users. BTS also dabbles in the property business through its 39% stake in U City. BTS: Business organization and shareholding structure Source: Company data (as of 31 March 2018) Krungsri Securities Research 2 Initial Coverage | BTS September 27, 2018 Mass Transit business BTSC is the exclusive concessionaire and operator of the BTS Skytrain core network (23 stations, 23.5 km) located in Bangkok CBD under a 30-year net cost model from 1999 to 2029. In April 2013, BTSC sold the rights to net farebox revenue of the core network up to Dec 2029 to BTSGIF for Bt62.5bn. BTS used the proceeds to invest in 1/3 of units in BTSGIF (10-year moratorium) and booked Bt950m share of net profit from BTSGIF in FY18. Core network ridership and farebox revenue outlook Share of net profit from BTSGIF Source: Company data Source: Company data BTSC has been operating and maintaining the Green Line Extension Phase I (11 stations, 12.8 km) since 2009 for a pre-agreed fee income (zero ridership risk). The company also signed a 30-year O&M contract in May 2012 to operate and maintain the Phase I Extension and the core network after it expires in 2029. BTS booked Bt1.9bn O&M revenue in FY17/18. BTS’s network coverage will expand by 3.5 times (38.1km currently) to 132 km by FY22. These comprise 26-year O&M contracts for the Northern and Southern Green Line extensions (from Bearing to Samut Prakarn and from Mo Chit to Khu Khot, total 25 stations, 30.8 km) in March 2017. The company also secured the Pink Line (30 stations, 34.5 km) and the Yellow Line (23 stations, 30.4 km) in June 2017 under 30-year PPP net-cost concession contracts. BTS’s network will expand 3.5x from 38.1 km in FY18 to 132 km in FY22 Source: Company data Krungsri Securities Research 3 Initial Coverage | BTS September 27, 2018 Media business BTS is involved in the Media business through majority-owned subsidiary, VGI Global Media PCL (VGI). VGI is the leading Out-of-Home Media company in Thailand. They have an exclusive concession to manage advertising space in the core BTS stations. VGI has expanded to include broad touchpoints across the Out- of-Home (OOH) Media segment, such as managing advertising space in key offices and commercial buildings in Bangkok, on street furniture, outdoor billboards, aviation and activation media. VGI: OOH media and digital service businesses Source: Company data VGI is also involved in the online business through a payment-based data platform called the Rabbit ecosystem. Rabbit was developed from an offline transit card (Rabbit Card) into an e-wallet, including Rabbit LinePay online payment channel within the LINE messaging app. Both payment channels are being rapidly adopted by an expanding base of brick-and-mortar and online vendors, enabling VGI to offer omni-channel and Offline-to-Online (O2O) solutions to give their customers more measurable and targeted advertising capabilities. Out of Bt3.9bn total revenue in FY18 (+30% yoy), 58% is from BTS-related media, 25% from outdoor media, 8% from office building media, and 9% from digital services media. VGI targets to be One-Stop Solution shop for customers VGI: Operating revenue breakdown Source: Company data Source: Company data Krungsri Securities Research 4 Initial Coverage | BTS September 27, 2018 Why we like BTS We initiate coverage of BTS with an OUTPERFORM rating and SOTP TP of Bt10.50/sh.
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