NEWCOMERS NO MORE? Contemporary NATO and the Future of the Enlargement from the Perspective of “Post-Cold War” Members 2015 This book was subsidized by NATO Diplomacy Division NEWCOMERS NO MORE? Contemporary NATO and the Future of the Enlargement from the Perspective of “Post-Cold War” Members 2015 Editors: Robert Czulda Marek Madej International Relations Research Institute in Warsaw and Jagello 2000 - NATO Information Center in Prague | Latvian Institute of International Affairs in Riga in cooperation with Atlantic Treaty Association in Brussels sponsored by NATO PUBLIC DIPLOMACY DIVISION Warsaw - Prague - Brussels 2015 Some rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical or photocopying, recording, or otherwise for commercial purposes without the prior permission of the publisher. This book is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported License. Editors: Robert Czulda, Marek Madej Cover: Krzysztof Bobrowicz Maps: Piotr Wawrzkiewicz Typesetting: International Relations Research Institute in Warsaw Photographs: Armed Forces of Slovenia/Armed Forces of Slovenia/NATO ISBN 978-83-62784-04-2 Published with the financial support of Institute of International Relations Faculty of Journalism and Political Science, University of Warsaw Contents . NATO Summits 9 . NATO’s Member Countries 11 . Foreword by Ambassador Alexander Vershbow 13 . Introduction 15 Part I . Martin Stropnický (Minister of Defense of the Czech Republic) 23 Czech Republic in NATO: From Admiration to Reliable Partner . Csaba Hende (Minister of Defense of Hungary) 25 The Door Should Remain Open . Titus Corlăţean (Minister of Foreign Affairs of Romania, 2012 - 2014) 27 An Indispensable Alliance. A View from Romania . Solomon Passy (President of the Atlantic Club of Bulgaria) 31 NATO Out-of-the-Box vs. the BRICS - SCO System: the Rising World Order (An Open Letter to NATO’s Secretary General and Heads of States) . Vasil Sikharulidze (President of the Atlantic Council of Georgia) 45 Toward Europe Whole, Free and at Peace . Arian Starova (President of the Atlantic Council of Albania) 51 NATO’s Enlargement as a Great Contribution to International Freedom, Peace and Security Part II . Tamás Csiki (Hungary) 59 Lessons Learnt and Unlearnt. Hungary’s 15 Years in NATO . Tomas Janeliūnas (Lithuania), Martynas Zapolskis (Lithuania) 73 Lithuania as a Rational Free Rider in NATO . Ieva Karpavičiūtė (Lithuania) 89 Evolution of North-Atlantic Security Community and the Baltic States . Sandro Knezović (Croatia), Zrinka Vučinović (Croatia) 103 The Future of NATO in the New Security Environment. A Former Newcomer’s View . Zdeněk Kříž (Czech Republic) 117 Disaster or Success? Evaluation of Worst Case Scenario . Marek Madej (Poland) 131 Poland and NATO’s Future - Let’s Get Serious About the Basics . Péter Marton (Hungary), Péter Wagner (Hungary) 137 The Impact of Hungary's NATO Membership: Intra-Alliance Adaptation Between Soft Constraints and Soft Subversion . Eoin Micheál McNamara (Estonia/Latvia) 153 When Contributions Abroad Mean Security at Home? The Baltic States and NATO Burden-Sharing in Afghanistan . Arūnas Molis (Lithuania), Gerda Jakštaitė (Lithuania) 169 NATO’s Transformation and Energy Security: The Perceptions and Role of a “Newcomer” . Jaromír Novotný (Czech Republic) 183 NATO’s “New” Mission: Back to its Roots . Henrik Praks (Estonia) 189 Estonia and NATO: Back to Basics After a Decade of Membership Part III . Yulia K. Boguslavskaya (Russia) 207 Russia and NATO: Looking For the Less Pessimistic Scenario . Dušan Fischer (Slovakia) 219 Slovakia’s Perspective on NATO Enlargement . Ryszard M. Machnikowski (Poland) 231 NATO and Ukraine - Russian Crisis . Rade Rajkovcevski (Republic of Macedonia), Dimitar Kirkovski (Republic 246 of Macedonia) Macedonian Membership in NATO: From a Clear Perspective to an Uncertain Anticipation . Karl Salum (Estonia) 261 Finland and Sweden in NATO: Implications on NATO - Russia Relations . Hanna Shelest (Ukraine) 275 Transformation of the NATO Partnership Concept in the Post-Soviet Space: Is Membership the Only Option? . Stojan Slaveski (Republic of Macedonia), Ljubica Pendaroska (Republic of 287 Macedonia) The Impact and the Role of NATO on Political and Security Situation in Macedonia: “Yesterday, Today, Tomorrow” Appendixes . Contributors 303 . About Us 311 NATO Summits . Paris, 16 - 19 December 1957 . Brussels, 26 June 1974 . Brussels, 29 - 30 May 1975 . London, 10 - 11 May 1977 . Washington, 30 - 31 May 1978 . Bonn, 10 June 1982 . Brussels, 21 November 1985 . Brussels, 2 - 3 March 1988 . Brussels, 29 - 30 May 1989 . Brussels, 4 December 1989 . London, 5 - 6 July 1990 . Rome, 7 - 8 November 1991 . Brussels, 10 - 11 January 1994 . Paris, 27 May 1997 . Madrid, 8 - 9 July 1997 . Washington, 23 - 24 April 1999 . Rome, 28 May 2002 . Prague, 21 - 22 November 2002 . Istanbul, 28 - 29 June 2004 . Brussels, 22 February 2005 . Riga, 28 - 29 November 2006 . Bucharest, 2 - 4 April 2008 . Strasbourg/Kehl, 3 - 4 April 2009 . Lisbon, 19 - 20 November 2010 . Chicago, 20 - 21 May 2012 . Newport, 4 - 5 September 2014 . Warsaw, 2016 - 9 - - 11 - Ambassador Alexander Vershbow (Deputy Secretary General of NATO) NATO’s Open Door - A Continuing Success Story Article 10 of NATO’s founding Treaty affirms that the Alliance is open to the inclusion of European states which share our values, which are able to assume the responsibilities of membership, and which can contribute to security in the Euro-Atlantic area. Together with Hungary and the Czech Republic, Poland formed the first wave of post-Cold War enlargement in 1999. Since then, a further nine countries have joined. And NATO’s current 28 Allies are determined to keep the Alliance’s door open for additional new members to walk through. Our Open Door policy is one of the Alliance’s great success stories. By joining NATO, our new members have returned to the family of Western nations from which they were tragically separated in the wake of the Second World War. By choosing to adopt NATO’s standards and principles, they have given their democ- racies the strongest possible security anchor. And by pledging to defend and pro- tect NATO, they have received the pledge that NATO will defend and protect them. As an Alliance, NATO has been strengthened by the commitment of our new Allies to our defining values: freedom, democracy, human rights, and the rule of law. We have also benefitted from their capabilities, their significant contributions to our operations and exercises, as well as from the wealth of experience and insights that they have brought to the table. But the positive effects of NATO enlargement have been visible beyond the Alliance. Alongside the widening of the European Union’s membership, NATO enlargement has helped to erase many of the painful dividing lines in Europe. It has helped to spread freedom, democracy and stability all across the continent. And it has brought us significantly closer to a Europe whole, free and at peace, which has been a longstanding goal of our Alliance. Today, the prospect of joining NATO continues to act as a strong incentive for interested nations to demonstrate responsibility and commitment, to stay on the path of democratic reform and reconciliation, and to find new solutions to old disputes. This process of individual nations working to meet the obligations and responsibilities of NATO membership is in itself contributing to greater stability in Europe. Russian politicians and officials have long claimed that the enlargement of NATO’s membership poses a threat to the security of their country. They have portrayed NATO’s Open Door policy as a deliberate attempt to weaken Russia and to “encircle” it. And they have argued that the prospect of additional neigh- - 13 - bouring countries joining NATO left Russia no other choice than to occupy parts of Georgia in 1998 and Crimea at the beginning of 2014. The reality is that we have gone out of our way to reach out and reassure Rus- sia. We made unilateral commitments not to deploy nuclear weapons on the terri- tory of our new members; not to permanently station substantial combat forces; and not to build NATO infrastructure beyond that which might be required for reinforcement. And we worked hard to engage Russia in dialogue and cooperation on issues of common concern, such as counter-terrorism and counter-piracy, and with some considerable success. Moreover, thanks to the stability which NATO and European Union enlarge- ment has brought, Russia’s western borders have never been more secure. Large parts of Central and Eastern Europe have seen unprecedented economic devel- opment and cross-border trade and investment, from which Russia has also bene- fitted. Regrettably, all that progress has been put at risk by Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and its readiness to use force to create new dividing lines, destabilise its neighbours, and deprive sovereign states of the right to chart their own future. The Alliance has stood firm in the face of this challenge. At our NATO Summit in Wales in September, Allies demonstrated an unbreakable commitment to protect and defend each other against any attack. But they showed a similarly strong commitment to our positive vision of a Europe whole, free and at peace, and to keeping our NATO door open to help make that vision a reality. And they reaffirmed that any decisions on enlargement are for NATO itself. The Open Door policy under Article 10 of the Washington Treaty is one of NATO’s great successes, and we want that success to continue. We will continue to support the territorial integrity and sovereignty of our partners. We will continue to respect their security choices. And we will continue to work with those countries that wish to move from partnership to membership. - 14 - Introduction The year 2014 for NATO was definitely “a year to be remembered”. Obviously, what decides most the unique character of the last year for the Alliance is the con- flict, which has erupted in Eastern Ukraine.