Enhancing Security and Stability in Afghanistan
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Enhancing Security and Stability In Afghanistan June 2020 Report to Congress In Accordance With Section 1225 of the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for Fiscal Year (FY) 2015, as amended; Section 1521(c) of the NDAA for FY 2017; Section 602(b)(14) of the Afghan Allies Protection Act of 2009 (8 U.S.C. 1101 note); and Section 1520 of the NDAA for FY 2020. The estimated cost of this report for the Department of Defense is approximately $101,000 for the Fiscal Year 2020. This includes $1,000 in expenses and $100,000 in DoD labor. Generated on Jun 12, 2020 RefID: E-2BA2571 This page left intentionally blank This report is submitted in accordance with and fulfills the reporting requirements of Section 1225 of the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for Fiscal Year (FY) 2015, as amended; Section 1521(c) of the NDAA for FY 2017; Section 602(b)(14) of the Afghan Allies Protection Act of 2009 (8 U.S.C. 1101 note); and Section 1520 of the NDAA for FY 2020. The report also provides information on the requests contained in page 348 of House Report 116-84, the Committee on Appropriations Report to accompany H.R. 2968, the Department of Defense Appropriations Bill, 2020, and in page 264 of the Senate Report 116-48, the Committee on Armed Services Report to accompany S.1790, the NDAA for FY 2020. It includes a description of the strategy of the United States for enhancing security and stability in Afghanistan, a current and anticipated threat assessment, and a description and assessment of the size, structure, strategy, budget, and financing of the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces. This report was prepared in coordination with the Secretary of State’s designee. This report describes efforts to enhance security and stability in Afghanistan from December 1, 2019, through May 31, 2020. The data cutoff date for this report is April 30, 2020. This report complements other reports and information about Afghanistan provided to Congress and is not intended to be the single source of all information about the combined efforts or the future strategy of the United States, its coalition partners, or Afghanistan. TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................ 1 Section 1 – Strategy and Objectives ............................................................................................... 3 1.1 U.S. Strategy in Afghanistan ................................................................................................. 4 1.2 U.S. Objectives in Afghanistan ............................................................................................. 5 1.3 U.S. Counterterrorism Mission ............................................................................................. 9 1.4 NATO-led Resolute Support Mission ................................................................................. 10 1.5 Reconciliation...................................................................................................................... 15 1.6 – COVID-19 Impacts and Responses ................................................................................. 16 Section 2 – Threat Assessment ..................................................................................................... 17 2.1 Current Security Conditions ................................................................................................ 18 2.2 Mitigating Casualties in Afghanistan .................................................................................. 19 2.3 Influence of Regional Actors .............................................................................................. 25 2.4 Threats from Insurgent and Terrorist Groups ..................................................................... 27 Section 3 – Overview of the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces ............................... 29 3.1 ANDSF Structure And Size ................................................................................................ 29 3.2 ANDSF Objectives .............................................................................................................. 30 3.3 Developing Ministry Capacity and Capability: Indicators of Progress.............................. 30 3.4 Security of Afghan Women and Girls ................................................................................. 40 3.5 Assessment of Progress on Objectives ................................................................................ 44 Section 4 – Ministry of Defense and Afghan National Army ...................................................... 51 4.1 Ministry of Defense ............................................................................................................. 51 4.2 Afghan National Army ........................................................................................................ 58 Section 5 – Ministry of Interior and Afghan National Police ....................................................... 81 5.1 Ministry of Interior .............................................................................................................. 81 5.2 Afghan National Police ....................................................................................................... 87 Section 6 – Financing the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces ................................... 94 6.1 U.S. Contributions ............................................................................................................... 94 6.2 International Contributions ................................................................................................. 95 6.3 Afghan Government Contributions ..................................................................................... 97 Annex A – Acronyms ................................................................................................................... 98 I EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The United States' vital national interest in Afghanistan is to ensure that Afghan territory is never again used as a safe haven from which terrorists can attack the United States, our Allies, or our interests abroad. Accordingly, the primary objective for Afghanistan under the President’s South Asia Strategy is to support a durable political settlement that ends the war and mitigates terrorist threats emanating from Afghanistan. The signing of the U.S.-Taliban Agreement and release of the U.S.-Afghanistan Joint Declaration on February 29, 2020, represent significant milestones in U.S. efforts to achieve that objective. The United States agreed to a conditions-based, phased withdrawal of forces from Afghanistan over 14 months if the Taliban abides by its commitment to prevent the use of Afghan territory by terrorists, works to reduce violence, and enters into Intra-Afghan Negotiations (IAN) to determine the date and modalities of a permanent and comprehensive ceasefire and reach an agreement over the future political roadmap of Afghanistan. The first phase of the withdrawal—a reduction to 8,600 troops by July 2020—is complete. During the initial portion of the reporting period, U.S. Forces-Afghanistan (USFOR-A) adjusted its operational approach to intensify pressure on the Taliban to reduce violence and meaningfully participate in IAN. Since the February 2020 reduction-in-violence (RIV) period, U.S. operations remained focused on counterterrorism operations against the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria– Khorasan Province (ISIS-K) and other terrorist organizations while operations targeting the Taliban have been in defense of the Afghanistan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF). A distinct line of effort was added to the campaign plan to enhance ANDSF effectiveness, responsiveness, and overall protection of key Government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan (GIRoA) infrastructure—specifically provincial centers, highway checkpoints, and the Kabul metropolitan area. The Combined Situational Awareness Room (CSAR) and supporting Regional Targeting Teams (RTT) established by USFOR-A and the ANDF in early 2019 became fully operational as a cross-security-pillar network to prioritize, resource, and enable ANDSF operations based on a collective understanding of the security environment. From Spring 2019 until the signing of the U.S.-Taliban Agreement, the CSAR, in concert with a network of Afghan leaders across the GIRoA, degraded Taliban networks by synchronizing personnel, assets, and leader focus at critical points on the battlefield. U.S. and Afghan close-air support of Afghan ground forces provided critical capabilities that enabled offensive and defensive operations. CSAR integration further enhanced the continued military pressure throughout 2019 and into early 2020, ultimately contributing to the weeklong RIV period in February 2020. The CSAR and RTT network has evolved to facilitate national-level crisis response, expedite intelligence sharing, and conduct broad targeting through predictive analysis to preempt Taliban violence. A Crisis Response Group (CRG) that incorporated this network was established in Kabul as a combined network of coalition and ANDSF personnel with the requisite communications, intelligence, and operational experience to support GIRoA’s security efforts. The additional capability provided by these initiatives, coupled with sustained military pressure, contributed to preventing the Taliban from seizing provincial centers in 2019 while denying safe havens for extremist networks