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5 yr, SPEI-1 indi- Climate Climate N ˇ ckov Sciences Sciences ≥ ı ´ Dynamics Chemistry of the Past of the Solid Earth Techniques N Geoscientific Methods and and Physics Atmospheric Atmospheric Atmospheric Data Systems Geoscientific Earth System Earth System Earth System Measurement Instrumentation ˇ Hydrology and Rezn Ocean Science Annales Biogeosciences The Cryosphere Natural Hazards and Earth System , L. 4 Model Development Geophysicae 2,6 ´ anek , O. Kotyza ˇ ep 2,3 ˇ 2424 2423 St Open Access Open Access Open Access Open Access Open Access Open Access Open Access Open Access Open Access Open Access Open Access Open Access Open Access

ˇ CR, Brno, Czech Republic , and P. , M. Trnka Climate Climate 2,6 1,2 Sciences Sciences ´ y Dynamics Chemistry of the Past Solid Earth Techniques ˇ Geoscientific cek Methods and and Physics Advances in ˇ rice, Czech Republic Atmospheric ı Atmospheric Atmospheric ´ Data Systems Geoscientific Geosciences ˇ Earth System Earth System Earth System e ´ Measurement azdil ([email protected]) Instrumentation Hydrology and Ocean Science Biogeosciences The Cryosphere Natural Hazards EGU Journal Logos (RGB) EGU Journal Logos and Earth System System and Earth Model Development , P. Dobrovoln , P. Zahradn 5 1,2 ˇ sek ´ a ´ azdil This discussion paper is/has been under review for the journal Climate of the Past (CP). Please refer to the corresponding final paper in CP if available. Moravian Land Archives, Brno, Czech Republic Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Brno, Czech Republic Institute of Agrosystems and Bioclimatology, MendelRegional University Museum, in Litom Brno, Czech Republic Institute of Geography, Masaryk University, Brno,Global Czech Change Republic Research Centre AV be attributed to recent temperaturetion. Droughts increases from without the significant pre-instrumental changesa and in instrumental long-term period precipita- chronology were used forfluctuated to the between compile Czech 26 Lands. inwere The 1951–2000 recorded number and between of 1641 16 years and22 in yr. 1680, with 1651–1700. A while drought Only number between has 1981 of nine1718 and past and drought 2012 1719. severe years A the droughts discussion figure are ofspatial was described the variability results in of centres detail: droughts, around comparison in theMoravia, uncertainty with 1540, and problem, tree-ring 1590, the the reconstructions broader 1616, from Central southern European context. 5 6 Received: 29 April 2013 – Accepted: 29Correspondence April to: 2013 R. – Br Published: 8 MayPublished 2013 by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. intervals were calculated forcates each 40 drought of years, the100 yr Z-index three drought 39 yr indices. in and Using 1834,an PDSI 1842, indicator of 1868, 47 yr. long-term 1947 drought SPEI-1and and disclosed and 2003 2004–2012. two Z-index important (50 The yr drought recorded first drought periods: period in 1863–1874 was 1992). related PDSI to as a lack of precipitation, the other may 3 4 analysis concentrated mainly on droughtsriod after (i.e. this pre-instrumental time. times) A wasdry dry defined as year patterns a in occurred calendar 1501–1804 year on pe- dry in at years the course were least of identified two which 18th (an consecutive centuries average months. of these figures one Using become droughtoccurrence this 41, per of definition, 36 2.4 dry yr). 129 and months From 491, yr, from the respectively, Z-index April 16th with and to to the PDSI the September prevailing drought – (73.7 patterns %). calculated between Drought 1805 for indices and the – 2012 Czech SPEI- (the Lands instrumental period). for April–September describe This paper addresses droughts ining the its Czech findings Lands on in documentarytary the evidence sources 1090–2012 and were AD instrumental employed period, records. for bas- Variouspreted the documen- at selection of a drought monthly events, level. which While were the then data inter- on droughts before 1500 AD are scarce, the Abstract 1 2 H. Val Droughts in the Czech Lands, 1090–2012 AD R. Br Clim. Past Discuss., 9, 2423–2470, 2013 www.clim-past-discuss.net/9/2423/2013/ doi:10.5194/cpd-9-2423-2013 © Author(s) 2013. CC Attribution 3.0 License. 5 25 15 20 10 Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | - ffi ´ ´ azdil azdil ¨ untgen et al., 2011a). ´ y et al., 2009, 2010). 2426 2425 ´ azdil et al., 2009; Trnka et al., 2009; Dai, 2011; ¨ untgen et al., 2010, 2011b). Dry-wet patterns may ´ azdil and Kirchner, 2007), a fact that lends urgency to drought studies from After floods, droughts have been the most severe natural disasters in the Czech Re- Droughts in the period covered by instrumental observations tend to be expressed Droughts in the pre-instrumental period may be studied by derivation from natural Documentary evidence is contained within a variety of historical sources that record, 3 (extremely cold/extremely dry) to plus 3 (extremely warm/extremely wet). If a se- discusses the analysis of droughtsindices. derived A from chronology documentary of data droughts andinstrumental for covers 512 drought data. yr is Five developed, particular combiningThe documentary results years and obtained of are discussed outstanding in past Sect. droughts 5 and are summarised described. in the final section. public (Br various points of view.Czech The Lands aim for 1090–2012 of AD, the combiningvelop documentary a current and long-term paper instrumental drought is data chronology.drought to Section to indices de- 2 investigate used. describes droughts Section the in 3 documentary the addresses data the and methods used in this study. Section 4 as various droughtStandardised indices precipitation index calculated (SPI;evapotranspiration McKee from index et (SPEI; a al., Vicente-Serano 1993), number etdrought standardised al., precipitation severity of 2010), index Z-index meteorological (PDSI; ande.g. variables. Palmer, the van 1965) Palmer der are Schrier theVicente-Serano et most et al., commonly al., 2006; employed 2011).records (see Br of In temperature general, and precipitation they exist cover in a a given period country. for which instrumental − ries of indices partlybe re-calculated overlaps to with series themillimetres expressed period or in percentages terms of for of instrumental precipitation degrees (Dobrovoln measurements, Celsius it for may temperature and form of temperature and precipitation indices, usually on a seven-degree scale from et al., 2005, 2010). Weather information of a qualitative nature is interpreted in the by analysis of treetion patterns rings (Wilson wherever et their al.,also growth 2005; appear relies B upon fortent, interpretation the etc. of most (e.g. part other Bradley,Czech 1999). proxies, on Lands. However, such precipita- For only example, as tree-rings fir treeconstruction are speleothems, rings of currently pollen from March–July southern available con- precipitation Moravia for totals haveet the been al., in 2002) used the and for period Z-index re- for of May–June in 1376–1996 the AD 1500–2008 period (Br (B incidentally or otherwise, information about weather and related phenomena (Br streams and loss of currentculties). in Drought rivers, episodes have low important still-water consequencesmanagement levels, for and/or and agriculture, other socio-economic forestry, human water di activities, as well as for other semi-naturalproxies ecosystems. and documentary evidence. Information about dry periods can be disclosed time scales and impacts, droughtsagricultural, may be hydrological divided and into socio-economic four (Heim,signalled categories: 2002). meteorological, by indicators Meteorological intrinsic drought to is pacts, weather i.e. data additional and kinds precedes ofof the drought. a onset Agricultural duration of of drought specific weeks mayusually im- to be became apparent 6–9 measured after months, in longer while terms be time hydrological identified intervals. and in Meteorological the socio-economic drought instrumental impacts can period,riod easily while are drought usually events based in on the the pre-instrumental occurrence pe- of significant impacts (e.g. low crop yields, low “Drought” may be definedtological as normal over a a negativein given deviation precipitation area. over of This an water implies(such extended balance that as period from drought of temperature, is the time, wind a while clima- and other result humidity) meteorological of frequently elements deficiency intensify its impacts. Based on 1 Introduction 5 5 15 20 10 25 15 20 10 Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | - ffi ˇ sek, ´ a ´ y Brod ´ azdil et al., ´ azdil and Val ˇ sovic for the area of ´ y, 1937). The Cardinal ´ ´ ´ y, 1941). In a sermon given azdil et al., 2005, 2010) and azdil et al., 2012b). ˇ sek’s chronicle for Uhersk in Palack ´ e ˇ cesk 2428 2427 ´ azdil et al., 2006b, 2012b). Documents relevant cial (administrative) character. Petr Uher, an o ffi in Emler, 1874). Next comes a report dated to 1121, ˇ ´ cek priory, both near Olomouc in Moravia (Br e letopisy ´ y culties for water mills arising out of a persistent drought, ffi Star ´ y Kope ´ azdil et al., 2006a, 2012c). Data sources that report droughts in ´ azavsk in Bretholz, 1923). Further examples, with many weather entries ered severe drought from March to May and all the crops sown ff ´ y Brod, wrote an explanatory letter to Commander Albrecht of Waldstein Mnich s Cosmas ˇ zlice, Daniel Philomates Senior mentioned that not for a more than a century (1719) will be as bad as the previous one (1718) (Lechner, 1896). 2.1.5 Letters Letters may be of acer personal at or Uhersk an o on 3 November 1626 inspoke response of to low a water requestpresenting and that problems he di in prepare the bread collectionSchrattenbach, for and in the milling a army. of letter He grainlack from (Hrub Olomouc of dated water, 16 dried-up August grass 1719, and mentions great a heat, bad harvest, and that he expects that this year had such droughts andthe lack bishop of of Brno water organisedsisted been called a seen a procession seven-hour as to prayer vigil pray in2003). for for 1616 all rain, churches (S1). and on 23 when On June the 18 (Br drought June per- 1782, ministration. For example, tax documents1719, in 1834, south-eastern 1856, 1863, Moravia 1869, report 1889, droughts 1892, in and 18942.1.4 (Br Religious data Prayers and supplicatory assembliesship. for For rain example, were fastingPrague often and on organised prayers 15 for in July rainin times 1503 Doma were of ( obligatory hard- for the inhabitants of Damage to agricultural productionevents related constituted to grounds extreme for hydrological rebate andLands meteorological of for taxes, the a 17th–20th systemto centuries well-developed the (Br in application the process Czech are preserved at the level of local, regional and state ad- 2.1.3 Tax documents ganised on 23 September. 2.1.2 Diaries More-or-less systematic qualitative daily weatherriod reports (with covering the some 1693–1783monastery gaps) pe- and the come Svat from2011). diaries Drought is keptmost mentioned by critical there the period for for Hradisko agricultureSeptember a Premonstratensian (April–September). 1750, total drought For of example, hampered as the 17 yr. reported autumn on sowing Of 19 and primary prayers for concern rain was were or- the when Bohemia su dried out ( including droughts, may beLouny, covering found the years in 1490–1631 the (S4),describing and the chronicle Barto 1453–1594 of period (Zemek, Pavel 2004). Mik historical hydrology (Br the Czech Lands (for all Czech locations mentioned in2.1.1 this paper see Annals, Fig. chronicles, 1) “books include: of memory” These narrative sources oftenof focus their on negative extreme impacts eventsrelated (including on, to droughts) or in drought consequences terms nor speaks for, human rain of society. fell a The ( oldest dry report winter in 1090/1091 AD, in which neither snow 2.1 Documentary data Information about past droughts canevidence be derived used from as the basic various kinds data of in documentary historical climatology (Br 2 Data 5 5 25 20 15 10 20 15 10 Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Theatrum n-Podmokly), ı ´ ˇ c ˇ e Wenn du mich siehst, ˇ etice. In autumn 1759 he was m ı ´ ˇ r erence between precipitation and potential ff 2430 2429 ˇ s’s opponents, demanding that he remove the ´ ˇ azdil et al., 2012a). s, on 19 March 1760 they broke the chains that tethered the erence between precipitation and PET for any given month may , a journal on the history of the German-speaking lands by ff (“If you see me, weep.”). It expressed that drought had brought a bad ˇ s, the inventor of the earthed lightning conductor. On 15 June 1754 he , Vol. 10). ¨ aus Merian, published between 1633 and 1738 in 21 volumes, also provides ˇ rinka, 1904). ´ Of the various drought indices available, the one-month standardised precipitation– The SPEI is based on the monthly di azdil et al. (2012a) calculated mean monthly areal temperature and precipitation month analysed. The average value of SPEI is zero and the standard deviation is one. of long-term drought, wereand established precipitation by series (Br calculation from these Czech temperature evapotranspiration (PET), thus representingthors a followed simple the climatic procedure water establishedThornthwaite by balance. Vicente-Serano (1948) The et method au- al. requiring (2010)a based only value on for data the PET, the on di meanbe calculated, monthly which temperature. provides With a simple measure of the water surplus or deficit for the be partly biased by theavailable number only of from stations 1883 available for onwards use.Sect. for Series 5.1.2). temperature for and all from stations 1876 were for precipitation (see evaporation index (SPEI-1)medium-term drought, and and the the Palmer drought severity Palmer index (PDSI) Z-index, as characteristic representing short-term or Br series for the instrumental period,stations for using temperature homogenised and monthly 14 stations serieswith for from precipitation. areal 10 These temperature series secular were and2000 confronted precipitation period, means for for whicheach the the of Czech station the Republic coverage 10 in isareal (temperature) the at means and 1961– its for 14 best. the (precipitation)was Based series considered 1961–2000 on was as this period. corrected the comparison, The to final median establish mean value areal of series corrected for the station Czech data Lands. This series may asked him to erect his(Pe “weather instrument” once more. His response was not2.2 positive Instrumental data and drought indices 1760, with thunderstorms doing great damage in fields and vineyards, the villagers positive response from Divi instrument and it was thrown down by a thunderstorm the following night. In summer 2.1.8 Other sources A curious derived example ofProkop drought Divi may be encounterederected his in “weather a instrument” story at his aboutapproached parsonage the by in priest villagers, P incitedapparatus by because Divi they considered it a reason for the dry summer that year. Getting no dann weine. harvest, lack of food, high pricesdroughts and are hunger commemorated for on poor the people. Before stone:1830, 1900, 1417, the 1842, 1616, following 1707, 1868, 1746, 1892, 1790,marks 1800, and of 1811, the 1893. River Similarly, Rhine Pfister on et the stone al. known (2006) as mention “Laufenstein”. low-water or seven miles forEuropaeum water, while fires broke out in both2.1.7 forests and villages Epigraphic ( data Hydrological droughts maystones”. also One of be these is commemorated tochiselled by be found with what at the the are left years bankThe of known of basic the hardship as River inscriptions and Elbe “hunger (D the warn initials of of the authors consequences lost of to drought: history (Fig. 2). Theatrum Europaeum Matth information about droughts. In 1666, forBohemia example, and it Hungary notes dried that out a meadows hot and summer watercourses in and Austria, people had travel six 2.1.6 Printed sources 5 5 25 15 20 10 25 20 15 10 Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | ¨ uler mentioned 3 extremely dry. − ˇ sovic of Louny recorded year recurrence intervals N 2 very dry, − 1 dry, − 2432 2431 ¨ uler’s summary for 1635: “a dry year, little grain and erence, according to a log-logistic distribution. ff 2, 5, 10, 20, 50 and 100 yr) of the corresponding index. First, values of drought dent on the soil type, water transfer into or outfull of or the empty. lower layer only occurs when the surface layer is the water holding capacity of the surface layerthe is water set holding at capacity a maximum of of the 25 mm, underlying layer has a maximum value depen- = In order to express the intensity of past droughts as derived from documentary ev- The extremeness of droughts as characterised by SPEI-1, Z-index and PDSI was Our interpretation of dry conditions/droughts was done at a resolution of months. Dating a drought may also present problems (all dates in this paper are re-calculated The method of PDSI calculation includes an intermediate term known as the Palmer The PDSI (Palmer, 1965) is based on a supply-and-demand concept of the wa- 3. 1. 2. N ( omitted and not includeddry for in further February, use. April and Forfollowed October, example, one was the not another. year considered 1725, because of although none it of was the months idence, selected months inthe a seven-degree scale given used dry in year historical-climatologicalGlaser, 2008). are studies Dry (see classified e.g. months by Pfister, are 1999; precipitation described indices as: on expressed via calculation of the return period for average example may be found in Michelfruit, St good wine” (S6). For the purposes of thisif paper, a it drought lasts is considered for acceptable two in calculations consecutive only months. Years that do not fulfil this requirement were to the Gregorian calendar). Somecating reports meteorological mention drought. the For period example, inthat without there 1540 rain was Pavel directly, no Mik indi- rain fromuntil 26 May 14 to 8 October August (S4). anda a The number general majority of state of months, of drought or continued reportsa seasons. For specify dry 1630, drought the summer tanner duration andconsidered master to Michel autumn this the St drought when level more all of severedrought the than only those brooks for in and a 1590 springs (S6). given went Several year sources dry without record in exact Krupka. specification He of the time of that year. An courses drying up, riversmills that that can cannot be mill, crossedpered a on autumn dearth foot sowing, of or processions mealand by of and so some religious bread, on. conveyance, a entreaty water further and period prayers or without fasts rain, for ham- rain, vegetables and fruit), shortage of water, low level of water/loss of flow in rivers, water- by impacts that express the severity of this event: bad yields of crops (mainly cereals, events on a monthly basisand as is it able responds to rank relatively the quickly dryness to or changes wetness in of soil individual moisture months. 3 Methods Certain basicdroughts methodological from allowances documentary evidence. musttary It sources be follows mention from made drought Sect. directly. in 2.1 Sometimes that the this many information documen- interpretation is complemented of moisture anomaly index orfor Z-index, a which given is month a withoutto measure PDSI. consideration of It of is surface the basically moisture antecedent“climatic moisture anomaly characteristic”. departure, conditions adjusted Compared that by to are a PDSI, intrinsic weighting the factor Z-index known may as be the used to track drought three assumptions relating to the soil profile characteristics: of a precipitation and PET di ter balance equation andand thus incorporates demand antecedent at precipitation, themethod. moisture surface It supply, as applies calculated a according two-layer, bucket-type to model the for Thornthwaite soil (1948) moisture PET computations with An SPEI of zero indicates a value corresponding to 50 % of the cumulative probability 5 5 25 15 20 10 20 15 10 Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | . /p 1 = N 2434 2433 ´ azdil and Kotyza, 1995). However, the eastern part of the ) were derived as an inverse of probability estimates, that is N The intensity of past droughts is described in terms of precipitation indices in Fig. 3 As follows from the previous data, a total of 129 yr with dry months/droughts were Despite dry months recorded outside the summer half-year (April–September), ) was estimated from the frequency distribution of Gaussian distribution. Finally, re- p year, from April to(26.3 September %) in (maximum the in winter June half-year, from and October August to 13.5 March %and (maximum each), summed in for and October the 133 7.9 corresponding %). yearsof in indices the decade means in Fig.of deeper 4c frequency (higher drought). negative of In sum drylower-frequency general, droughts years this occurred or in follows dry 1721–17301701–1710, the in months which decadal contrast were within with also distributions them. the themonths most most However, in intensive. frequent it 1511–1520, Despite in is their the higher intensity remarkable number was that of lower drought than in 1531–1540. lowest numbers of drymonths years each). were recorded for 1521–1530 and 1641–1650identified (only in six the 1501–1804Czech period, Lands. giving Of an a average total of of one 505 dry drought months, per 372 2.4 yr (73.7 %) in occurred the in the summer half- droughts prevail in this period:imum 16th June century 18.1 – %); 135 17th months century1701 out – to of 99 1804 160 of there (i.e. 139 84.4 were (i.e.winter %; 71.2 136 half-year max- %; out maximum (October–March), of May droughts 15.1 2069.4 %); were % (i.e. from more 66.0 in %; frequent the maximum in 17th Augustmonths 13.1 October century are %). (between shown and In in 6.9 the %1520, Fig. 1701–1710 in 4b. and The the 1721–1730 highest 16th (29 numbers century). months of each) Decadal dry followed frequencies months by of 1531–1540 appeared dry (26). in The 1511– 1640, 1721–1730 and1530, 1781–1790. 1641–1650, Only 1661–1670 twowere and years recorded 1671–1680. with between In 1711 drought anddrought the occurred 1720. occurred 18th The in in century longest 1521– the series1704–1708 three and of 18th dry 1724–1728 consecutive century: in years years second with seven place. years in 1778–1784, with five years in (Fig. 4a). Six droughts per decade were recorded in 1511–1520, 1531–1540, 1631– the 18th century, followed by theThe 16th century highest with number 41 of yr years and with the droughts, 17th seven century per with decade, 36 yr. occurred in 1701–1710 36 cases) in individualsources: centuries four also cases reflects in theand the 13 availability 12th cases of century, in existing five the documentary 15th in century. the 13th4.1.2 century, 14 the Droughts 14th after century, 1500 AD Figure 3 shows aperiod, chronology based on of documentary droughts data. Itpatterns in follows that at the documentary all Czech evidence times discloses Lands dry of during the the year. A 1501–1804 total of 49 yr with dry patterns/droughts emerged in Czech Lands, i.e. Moravia,descriptions is appears also mentioned in in Tableness 1. some in Of winter cases. (DJF) the An while in credible overview(JJA) all with reports, or other basic in cases only drought the the occurred wholeat in first summer spring their speaks (MAM), half-year, most summer when of severe, the dry- significantly consequences influencing of harvests. such The events were number of droughts (total 4 Results 4.1 Droughts in the Czech Lands4.1.1 based on documentary data Droughts before 1500 AD Information about dry episodesBohemia, reflecting and the droughts better before availabilitydom of closest 1500 ancient to AD documents the capital is in (Br the largely part confined of to the king- oretical distribution was tried with( goodness-of-fit tests. Then probability ofturn occurrence periods ( indices were modelled with Gaussian normal distribution and the suitability of this the- 5 5 25 15 20 10 20 15 10 Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | ), 2 in 2007 100 in 1835 reflected 50 year recurrence in- 5yr during the 1805– N ≥ 5yr droughts occurred in ), while PDSI ´ azdil et al., 2012a). From N ≥ 100 N , Z-index 100 per decade was recorded in the periods ects of droughts in the 2000s. This is why ff 5 2yr. 2436 2435 ≥ N PDSI ≥ for 2007) were followed by six cases in 1861–1870 5yr appears in Fig. 5. The 5 yr return period was based 100 ≥ N ´ azdil et al., 2012a). 2, 5, 10, 20, 50, 100) were calculated. An overview of such indices at in 2009 were the cumulative e = 50 for 2009 and PDSI erences between them. The highest number of for 1866) and five in 1991–2000 (Fig. 6). These three decades cover a total N ff 50 50 Figure 7 shows the decadal frequency of droughts in the Czech Lands during the At least one drought with PDSI Figure 6 shows the decadal frequencies of droughts expressed by SPEI-1, Z-index turies: 49, 47, and 47.– Only 41). 36 cases If were matters recorded in are the addressed 17th century in (16th 50 yr century periods, the highest number of years with and PDSI droughts in the 1805–2012occurrence of period SPEI-1 were and Z-index selected at primarily on a1501–2012 basis period. of Droughts concurrent this before chronology; AD the 1500too patchy were incomplete. nature The not of series usedperiod. available compiled Comparable in documentary shows numbers the quite sources of consistent years compilation renders with patterns of them drought throughout are the typical of the 18th–20th cen- and the dry patternsdata that prevail it from April follows tomonths. that September. Moreover, From they droughts the derived have character fromor of to documentary medium-term these be data droughts, express compared favouring quitean indices with short-term indicator such of instrumental as long-term datadrought drought. SPEI-1 Examples for and from may the Z-index the be over previous same cited: PDSI, year a PDSI 1834 (SPEI-1 climate, the second may be attributedin in greater JJA, part also to in increasing MAM temperatures, mainly (Br 4.3 Long-term chronology of droughts inThe the compilation Czech of Lands a long-term Czechferent drought sources chronology from is complicated which by droughtdisclosure the data two of are dif- derived. the Documentary frequency evidence of facilitates droughts, with identification of corresponding months of 38.3 % of1881–1930 the and 47 1961–1970. droughts Twenty-one droughtscentury, identified. (44.7 17 %) On were (36.2 the %) recorded othersequences in in hand, the stand the 19th no out 20th in droughtsand century particular: occurred 2004–2012. and in 1863–1874 While nine (interrupted the first in (19.1 %) case 1867; afterwards. reflects in Two mainly 1868, drought a PDSI lack of precipitation in a cooler (PDSI (PDSI and 1931–1940 as well).both The indices years were in 1834,in which 1842, 1992. centennial 1868, SPEI-1 droughts 1947 and19th and were Z-index century 2003. achieved both – for A show 45.017.5 % 50 similar % yr and distribution and drought 48.7 over 12.8 %; was %). particularapproximately 20th recorded Based 2.1 centuries: century times on – more Z-index, likely 37.5than drought % than during events in and the in the 20th 38.5 % 19th the century. century (2001–2012 early and – 21st 2.8 century times1805–1880, more are 1931–1960 likely and 1971–2012. Seven droughts in the 2001–2010 decade and PDSI for April–September2012 at period. a Comparison recurrencesmall of interval di frequencies of of2001–2012 SPEI-1 (seven), followed and by 1991–2000 Z-index andfor revealed 1861–1870 either (five index only each). was very No recorded such in case 1881–1890 and 1951–1960 (for Z-index in 1871–1880 ture and precipitation seriesSPEI-1, for Z-index the and 1805–2012tervals PDSI period ( April–September (Br series,a values recurrence of interval of on agro-climatological studies (e.g.harvests Hlavinka significantly et al., influenced 2009; bypast Trnka drought 130 et yr. in al., approximately 2012) 20 showing % of cases over the Because, for the greater part,drought dry indices months/droughts employed occur also fromin span April the to this Czech September, summer the Lands half-year.values in This the calculated analysis instrumental of from period droughts homogenised is monthly based on series SPEI-1, of Z-index mean and areal PDSI Czech tempera- 4.2 Droughts in the Czech Lands in the instrumental period 5 5 25 15 20 10 25 15 20 10 Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | ˇ s, ˚ ula, ˇ S ´ ar, 1987) ˇ sovic (S4) ˇ ska – ¨ uttel of Trutnov ˇ ejovice (Mare ´ azdil and Kotyza, ´ e Bud k, 1858). Heat, drought, ı ´ ˇ Cesk ´ y of Florentinum (Kol ˇ zovsk ˚ ´ uj, 1977). Further sources, incidental to ar, 1987). A dry period is mentioned for ˇ n (Strnad, 1883). Simon H 2438 2437 ˇ rice – S5; 17 June–6 August in Dobru ˇ e cient water to function (Dud ´ ´ y, 1972). Marek Byd y – Peters, 1898; raining only two or three times between ffi ˇ re, green water (algae proliferating in low flow conditions) and ´ y Brod around the same time (Zemek, 2004). Pavel Mik ˇ ska speaks of a poor harvest for summer products but an abundance of winter ˚ ula, 1967). A poor harvest resulted in severe shortages (S4; Gradl, 1884; ´ achymov (Wolkan, 1890) and Plze ˇ S pre-instrumental period k, 1858; d’Elvert, 1861; Palme, 1913; Kol ı ´ ´ ar, 1987). The year of 1540 was exceptionally hot in Europe, comparable with the lay in a good yieldrecords of of excellent an wine earthquake (S5; on Ondr 15 September, speak of heat, drought and brooks drying Vltava, Elbe and the Oh poor harvests (S3; S4; Dvorsk in Prague notes fruit yields andTrutnov the records harvest poor in yields general were of poor,for vegetables while Dobru and the chronicler fruit for (Schlesinger, 1881).crops The chronicler ( Peters, 1898; Indra andTrutnov and Turek, its surroundings 1946) (Schlesinger, and 1881). However, grain perhaps some had consolation to be imported from Silesia to 1922), J speaks of a hot, dry(Schlesinger, summer, 1881). and Further mentions sources that there also(3 June–10 had specify September been the in no length Slan rain of10 for the June a and period long 21 time without September rain 1967). in Litom They also record streams drying up, mills idle, low water level in the Rivers outstanding event of summerdry 2003 on (Wetter the broader and European Pfister, scale 2013); (Wetter et it al.,4.4.2 was 2013). also extremely The year 1590 Summer 1590 was hot and25 dry. July, Thus, when “great drought” millsa is had dry reported for insu summer Olomouc and around frequent fires appear in reports from and warm weather untilweather the led end to the of earliest the startmade of year. to harvest early In recorded starts the in and 1450–16222000). the ends Louny period, to Reports region, harvesting warm and also barley, mention and oats is Kol speak and dry peas of (Br a poor or medium harvest of grain (S2; Gradl, 1884; to the end of the year. Andreas Baier (Gradl, 1884) mentions a dry summer there, and warm weather lasting1884), speaking until of Cheb, the records very a dry end year, with of sowing the and field-work year. extended Pankraz right Engelhart (Gradl, Summer 1540 was hotDud and dry. Waterthe was surroundings short of and the forestand town fires resulting of broke in Jihlava, out a lastingA bad (S2; very from yield S4; dry 6 of and April both warmfor green until period, around vegetables the with Uhersk and end an root acutenotes of crops shortage a the (d’Elvert, of hot year 1861). grain and and dry vegetables, period is for noted Louny, 26 May–13 October, with rain only on 8 August demonstrate description based on documentary1590 evidence. and While 1616 the are droughts documented inwere prevailingly 1540, by selected sources as from two Bohemia, consecutive 1718from and very Moravia. 1719 dry years with most of their4.4.1 documentary data The year 1540 derived for 1521–1530, 1641–1650,per 1661–1670 decade and occurred 17 1671–1680. times, Fourlasted the most drought for often. seven years years The in longest continuous 1778–1784, drought 1988–1994 periods and 2003–2009. 4.4 Selected outstanding drought events in the Czech Lands in the Five cases of outstanding droughts in the pre-instrumental period appear here to and 1801–1850 (24bers each), were 1851–1900 recorded (23) indriest 1651–1700 and patterns (16) 1501–1550 and occurred (22). 1551–1600 infrom The (19). 1801–1810 documentary At lowest with data). the num- eight Seven decade1870, dry years level, years 1941–1950, (of the per 1991–2000 which decade and three occurred 2001–2010. were in derived Only 1701–1710, 1861– two droughts per decade were drought is established for 1951–2000 (26), followed by 1751–1800 (25), 1701–1750 5 5 25 15 20 10 20 25 15 10 Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | ı ´ ´ ˇ y e ˇ st ˇ stern ´ a ˇ cno re- cult (S5). ˇ rerov and ´ e Hradi ffi ˇ Zelechovice ´ a and ´ azdil et al., 2011). ˇ zek from Opo pa, mentions that the ˇ sov ı ı ´ ´ ´ al et al., 1968). Severe ˇ C ´ a L ˇ c, Za ı ´ ˇ zek, not dated). At Moravsk ı ´ ˇ Cesk ˇ reb ˇ ˇ C ˇ cva drying up near P zlice, referred to the “drought of ˇ sovic (S4) mentions an average ´ a Voda mentions the year 1718 as ˇ ˇ reclav (Dost ser, 1920). A record from Kl ˚ ulky, T ˇ e, severe drought before 24 June marred ˇ ´ st a Skalice (Schreiber, 1909). A report from ´ ar, 1987). At Cheb it became impossible to ´ y Beroun describes drought, small quantities 2440 2439 ˇ ´ avka, Sob Cesk ´ e Hradi ˇ z (Berger, 1901). Unusual drought is recorded at ı ´ ˇ r ˇ e ˇ rov and one had to go 5–6 miles to get milling done ´ yma ˇ re after the following dry autumn was recorded as late as 20 December ˇ cek, 1903). The Piarist diary from Star ˇ zek, not dated). In Uhersk ı ´ ˇ C ´ azdil and Kotyza, 2000). This was due to extraordinary drought, starting as early ˇ cno ( ´ azdil and Kirchner, 2007). caterpillars (Berger, 1901). Alack letter of of water, 16 dried-up August grass and from a Olomouc bad mentions harvest great (Lechner, heat, 1896). In Uhersk 4.4.5 The year 1719 A report from Roudnice nadof Labem drought indicates to that people pickported were that the forced 1719 spring by was the even grainharvest hardship worse was by than very 1718 hand bad – (S7).Beroun, and mills due Jan could there to not was Josef mill great a for heatdone. lack many There and of weeks, was drought, fodder the no one ( grain had or to flax, go pastures six dried miles out or and more the to cabbages get were milling eaten by Bzenec (Cvr memorable for drought, with(S8). only Severe five drought, hard desiccated grain, rainsmills bad after are harvest, spring mentioned shortages by and and sources(Br the a for lack ground Svit of cracked water for the growth of springHradisko grain Monastery and also dated dried 11The it June summer out speaks was (Fi of dry(Tutsch, 1914). “great in The drought” R River (Br Dyjedrought dried and financial out hardship around are described B (Lechner, in 1896). a A letter source of 10 fromof September Moravsk grain from and Olomouc subsequentmills shortages, at with a the standstill River around Be Krom Eight weeks without rain wasKlatovy noted mentions in severe drought,the in fry which perished some (Peters, fishOpo 1946; cultivation the ponds same dried for out 1719). and Drought led to a lack of water in 4.4.4 The year 1718 mentions great heat, dried-up rivers1899). Daniel and Philomates the Senior, River in Vltavathe a in century” sermon Prague at (S1). “stinking” Doma The (Winter, a exceptionally “hunger dry stone” year on of theharvest 1616 River is of Elbe also winter (Fig. recorded grain 2).withered. with in Pavel a Very Louny, Mik mark although dry on spring weatherall. cereals dried Switzerland and had out other much the earlier(Glaser, the 2008). grass field same and crops kind the of aftermath weather was (Pfister, not 1999), as mown did at Germany Hay-making and the harvestsLouny of region. barley, The rye, end oats ofriod and the (Br harvest wheat was started even veryas earlier April early than that (S4; in of Palme, the the 1913)Wolkan, 1890; 1517–1622 and Richter, pe- continuing 1940; throughout Indra and the Turek, 1946). summer Daniel (S3; Basilius Feifalik, of 1859; Deutschenperk and game (Palme, 1913).year Hans was Kriesche, entirely speaking dry, of and with severe no shortages rain followed all (S3).Austria summer A (Klemm, and very 1983; hot winter; Lauscher, and(Rojecki 1985), milling dry et Germany became al., summer (Glaser, impossible 1965) was 2008), or also Silesia Switzerland reported and (Pfister, in 1999). Poland 4.4.3 The year 1616 mill grain due to the lowon level the of River water Oh from summer onwards,(Gradl, although 1884). the lowest The water soilAutumn dried rain out is mentioned to for dust onlyrain in 28–29 for October autumn, 38 (S5; weeks; which Peters, the 1898). made grass Varnsdorf sowing had withered di no in the intense heat and there were losses of fish up before it occurred (Strnadel, 1950; Kol 5 5 25 15 20 10 25 15 20 10 Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | ˇ c, ı ´ ˇ reb ˇ ser, 1920). In Bzenec, the wa- ´ avka, severe drought for T ´ ¨ a, severe drought and shortages for ommer, 2003) and Germany (Glaser, ˇ sov 2442 2441 ˇ cek, 1903). In Hranice it was possible to cross the River ´ azdil and Kirchner, 2007). ˇ cva on its bed (Indra, 1929–30). At Praskolesy, due to drought from 4 June onwards, Visualization of the internal structure a given drought is also driven by the availability A further problem for the interpretation of drought arises out of the great spatial Dry and warm patterns in 1718 and 1719 in the Czech Lands are confirmed by ˇ series. High spatial correlationsspatial present variability no typical problems of for precipitation temperature, may but be the an great important source of uncertainty. between October and March. 5.1.2 Uncertainty in drought indices The mean areal temperaturelated and from precipitation the series full forperature) number the onwards. This of Czech means stations Lands thatthe are used SPEI-1, complete calcu- from Z-index 1876 set and PDSI (precipitation) ofnumber series and of stations calculated stations 1883 run from decreases, (tem- from with concomitant only increase 1883 of to uncertainty 2012. for the Deeper whole into the past, the 18th century. Narrative accounts, whichperiod, typically may concentrate be largely extended on for thethe later vegetation whole times year by (e.g. other weather sourcesfor diaries), interpretation. that which By describe then the come the 18th to weatherthere century, be for this is used is a in already relative growing becoming increase measure reflected of in dry the fact months that disclosed for the winter half-year as well, i.e. (mainly its north-western part)to is be much taken higher indocumentary than the sources that interpretation to from of just Moravia. theas a Care duration a season has of whole. of also Statements a the ofthat year given the all (e.g. drought, “dry the to often months summer, MAM attributed dry concerned or in were spring” JJA) truly type or dry. do to not theof necessarily year documentary mean sources. Therefrom is April a to September, remarkable relative decline to the in total the number of number dry of months, dry from the months 16th to the astated in the wake1641 of to the 1680 Thirty only nine Years’ War years with (1618–1648) drought and were in documented. variability the of four the decades of documentaryCzech Lands. data, For which example, in then the has 16th to century, the be number generalised of sources for from the Bohemia entire is characterised by a lower number of available sources. The Czech Lands were dev- express availability of documentary evidence ratherple, than while real the past highest situations. density For exam- of information relates to the 18th century, the 17th century 5.1.1 Uncertainty in documentary data The density andupon availability of the detection documentary ofLimitations sources follow droughts bear from and the in number alldistribution, very of analyses and records important other preserved that fashion and intrinsic arise excerpted,cumstances factors. out their are Variations territorial reflected in of in economic, historical significantperiods social sources. fluctuations and are in political the rich cir- density inmeans of that data records, the i.e. while number some others of years are with poorer, dry or months/droughts records in individual are centuries simply may absent. This 5.1 Chronology of droughts in theThe Czech results Lands obtained and associated for uncertainties lated this to paper documentary are data partly and biased the spatial by variability a of number precipitation. of uncertainties re- severe drought and little water for mills at Za data from Switzerland (Pfister, 1999),2008). Austria (Str 5 Discussion because of great droughtter and reservoir lack of dried waterBe up in (Cvr mills (Fi there was a badcated harvest grain of and a grain bad and harvest flax are (Tiray, mentioned 1907). from Further Svit Zelechovice great (Br drought, desic- on 28–30 August people took to the streets in procession to beseech God for rain 5 5 25 15 20 10 25 20 15 10 Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | cult to compare drought events ffi erences between its various parts ff 2444 2443 ). 20 , PDSI 5 ˇ cice), the distances between some of them may be more than 200 km. , Z-index 5 ect will be more pronounced in SPEI-1 and Z-index than in PDSI. Although the year recurrence rather than absolute values of drought index to define a drought ff N However, it is the view of the authors that, even in the light of the limitations above, This uncertainty also has quite important consequences for the evaluation of inevitably changed and instrumental records provide more objective information about the importance of drought as aof phenomenon the justifies compiling Czech this Lands droughtsent chronology for drought 1501–2012 in AD. the Whileby earlier using period data documentary and availability, instrumental evidence itthe records to still 19th in repre- century makes later was times good moreand was vulnerable sense. considerable to dictated It drought; dependence general on can productivityculture water was be a power much very argued lower made sensitive that all droughtthe indicator. society activity With early associated prior the 19th with burgeoning to agri- of century industrialisation onwards, from the sensitivity of agriculture and society to drought quality instrumental data may provideof a drought degree episodes of “over-focus”, thatof enabling had drought the in little depiction the oruse instrumental no period. significant This impact, wasperiod one leading for of to the the purposes over-reporting reasons of this for paper. the decision to from the impacts recorded (onwater agricultural and levels forestry produce, etc.). the Thisrenders flow of it mismatch waterways, likely in thatin drought an the definitions event of same between alandscape manner both (expressed given as, were main objective for example, it intensity periods crop would yields)has to to changed not occur droughts, over as be past in well centuries represented as (e.g.could both society Trnka itself, be et periods. al., based 2012). Further, on Thus,of the even observed if the sensitivity a impacts same drought of it study intensity the would over be the di centuries. On the other hand, the availability of high- Merging drought events from both documentarycontinuous records record and is instrumental obviously not data without intometeorological risk. one As drought mentioned is in confined Sect. 1, almostdrought identification events exclusively of in to the the pre-instrumental instrumental period period must more while often be defined by deduction 5.1.4 Uncertainty in the drought chronology compiled for the Czech Lands whole Czech Republic smoothes quite(SPEI-1 significant di droughts from documentary data whereof the available the sources Czech come from Landswith various that the parts spatial may variability be mentioned,tion wetter character this or of can individual influence drier months, interpretation in as of mentioned the the in corresponding precipita- Sect. year. 5.1.1. Together small distances between certainin places the can Czech also Republic playern in a 2012 part significant may (Moravia role. serve and Theprecipitation as Silesia) situation in an and Bohemia, example: particularly severe in(Fig. drought the the 9). in southern This western the spatial part, part east- distribution andwere reflects of also notably summer Bohemia precipitation in higher and totals in southern in above-mean the Moravia particular, wetter which regions. However, calculation of areal means for the cipitation. The greater increasethe in 1860s–1870s. the number of stations was5.1.3 achieved as late Uncertainty as in in the territorially limitedPrecipitation extension totals of in synoptic the situations Czechtant Lands are pressure dependent systems on the (positionat territorial of sub-synoptic extent of lows, and impor- highs, synoptic scales troughs (frontal and systems, ridges) convection, and etc.). phenomena The relatively stations used do not varyto a 486 m great in deal Da inFigure altitude 8 (from shows 191 m changesCzech at in temperature Prague-Klementinum the and number precipitationand of series. Brno) stations Only were used two used for for stations calculations calculation (Prague-Klementinum up of to the 1818 mean for temperature and to 1828 for pre- This e 5 5 25 15 20 10 25 15 20 10 Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | erent ff ects records of the ff 0.25) and neither series = r ´ y et al., 2010), the next focus has to be upon 2446 2445 0.39) and evaluation of dryness from two di − = ¨ untgen et al., 2011a). Any direct comparison is com- r ´ azdil et al., 2002) and for May–June Z-index values derived from the from southern Moravia The quantity and quality of documentary data permit direct comparison at the level When decadal frequencies of droughts compiled from documentary data (1501– The way forward towards the compilation of a more complete chronology lies in cre- 0.17 for MAMJJ precipitation. One of the reasons may be that the chronology pre- a high inter-decadal variability. A tendency towards more dry conditions is typical of tary data indicated thatthe the driest years decade 1601–1610. was Certainmonths 1531–1540, (MAMJJ) TRW-based common Z-index was features led compared to with weresame mean season found reconstructed for when precipitation individual frequency totals decadesz-scores over for (Fig. of better the 10). comparison. dry The In thisistics two case, of data the dryness sets correlation is were between the significantsources transformed two ( to agrees character- at leastdry partly decades for to mostThese appear two of are characteristics the those show decades. of no Among 1531–1540 long-term the and trend most in 1681–1690 extremely drought in occurrence both but data rather sets. monthly resolution, a comparison was madewith of mean the numbers Z-index of value dryson months does for (May–June) not the indicate any samedry common months signal. months The in and overall correlation reconstructed individualcorresponds between in Z-index decades. numbers terms is of This of not occurrence compari- of significant the ( most extreme decades. While the documen- − sented in Fig. 7 summarisesinstrumental annual values, part not of only the the chronologyfully seasons was above. independent. Moreover, used the These in part arethe for documentary the the parts main reconstructions of and reasons the is for Czech not drought further chronology. comparisonof between decadal only values18th for century. a Because period drought from frequencies the from start documentary of data the are 16th available century at to the end of the of the driest regions in the Czech Republic. 1804) and instrumental record (1805–2012)with in TRW-based the MJ Czech and Lands MAMJJ (Fig.relations 7) reconstructions, are are no compared low coherency is and found. non-significant Overall correlations cor- give only 0.22 for MJ Z-index and whereas TRW reconstructions to date reflect conditions only in southern Moravia, one since series from documentary data relate to the whole territory of the Czech Lands same type of proxyplicated records by the (B factquency that of indices derived events from relativelypartly documentary well biased evidence but characterise by assessment fre- Construction the of of the somewhat indices intensity subjective ontrue of process a variability droughts of (and seven-degree also may scale interpreting intensity) be reconstructions (see of historical refer Sect. precipitation/drought reports. events. directly 1) In to a contrast,precipitation intensity tree-ring totals. of A further drought, factor either that through may Z-index hamper values direct comparison or is spatial bias, The chronology ofidence droughts may in bedrought/precipitation the partly worked Czech verified up LandsSuch by for a compiled southern comparison comparison from has Moravia withfrom been documentary from fir two made TRW tree-ring ev- for (Br existing March–July widths reconstructions precipitation (TRW). totals of reconstructed perature indices extend toEuropean 1854 temperature and series have (Dobrovoln beencreation used of for precipitation the indices compilationmight from of be documentary a found data. in Central the Anotherfrom quantitative promising 1501 interpretation approach and of its the use Czech for precipitation calculation index of series drought5.2 indices into the Droughts past. in the Czech Lands in comparison with tree-ring reconstructions a long-term frequency for droughts inperspective the upon Czech these Lands, providing phenomena. some idea of a longer ating a period inestablished by which instrumental measurement droughts in derived form of from drought indices. documentary While data Czech tem- overlap with those drought. Nonetheless, this chronology has to be taken as a first attempt at establishing 5 5 25 15 20 10 25 15 20 10 Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | E– ◦ N/12 ◦ 0.43) but corre- − = r ) indices compiled from P erent proxy data and drought indices ( ff P 88. From this analysis it may be = 0.58), implying that the two series n − ¨ = untgen et al., 2011a). The territories of r 0.38, indices. This result is understandable and = S cients reach only 0.12 and 0.34 for MJ and 2448 2447 P r 66). Values for the remaining periods are: 17th ffi = n 0.74, = S r index series (along with a number of natural proxies) were used ) multiproxy precipitation reconstruction for Europe by Pauling ◦ 66; 18th century, P = 0.5 n × ◦ ers from inconsistencies arising out of di ff 0.64, = E) was compared with the Czech drought chronology in the common 1501– S r ◦ N/18 is for the 16th century ( ◦ The compiled chronology of Czech drought events may be further verified by means Despite very high inter-decadal variability in both series, numerous common features German and Swiss The first comparison was made with series of precipitation ( Similarly, reconstructed MJ Z-index and MAMJJ precipitation totals may be com- S of existing dendro-climatologicalstructions precipitation/drought refer largely reconstructions. to Such the late-spring recon- or early-summer moisture regime and cover were checked with non-parametric Spearmansignificant for correlations. individual These centuries correlations and, remain r interestingly, the highest Spearmancentury, correlation concluded that, at the very least,sources the used quality and in interpretative the value compilation ofand of the do documentary Czech not drought change chronology from significantly. 1500 AD are stable intensities from 216 summerwith seasons Central in European the precipitation periodMoreover, totals, 1501–1804 sharing these almost correlate results 40 significantly % appearfound of in temporally data common from stable; variability. individual significantprecipitation centuries. totals Because correlations and here drought were comparisons intensity are expressed also on made only between an ordinal scale, the results can be found not only forLess individual frequent decades but droughts also were for long-termand especially tendencies for typical (Fig. the 11). of 17th the century.of Conversely, second more the half frequent 16th of droughts century, the occurreddroughts the 16th in during the the century end first 20th of part century.(Pauling The the et subset al., 18th of 2006) century European canLands. precipitation also and be reconstruction The both used comparison for series verificationhistorical was also of sources drought made indicate intensity (seasons more for in with the all Czech missing JJA values seasons were with excluded). Altogether, relevant drought information in 52 2000 period atnificant a correlation decadal was resolution foundshare (Fig. for a JJA 11). common values variance A ( of relatively about high 34 %. and statistically sig- et al. (2006). A subset of this reconstruction covering Central Europe (48 in a gridded (0.5 Lands (Fig. 7) correlate significantlylations with to JJA annual German indicesCzech are drought not frequencies significant. There andconsistent with are Swiss our no knowledge common ofpean features the region between from precipitation/drought the regime instrumental inGermany period the (see and Central B the Euro- Czechregion Lands in are terms adjacent of and circulationSwitzerland. characteristics comprise and a precipitation far regime more than more homogeneous distant comparison su characteristics, seasonal emphasis, and various degrees of spatial extent. documentary data for Germany (Glaser, 2008)their and Switzerland precipitation/drought (Pfister, characteristics 1999) because arestudy the for most the similar to pre-instrumental the period. data Decadal used frequencies in of this droughts in the Czech of common variabilityMAMJJ, (correlation respectively). coe 5.3 Droughts in the Czech LandsFor in comparison the and Central for European verification context on of drought a occurrence Central analysis European inious scale, the kinds Czech a Lands much may higher be number used. of These proxy are reconstructions available of at var- an annual resolution; however, any mid-17th century according toquantity documentary of sources sources (see is Sect. 5.1.1). probably related to apared smaller to drought intensityseasons. (Fig. However, comparison 4c) with derived proxy from reconstructions shows documentary no sources significant for share the same both datasets around the end of the 18th century. A lower occurrence of drought in the 5 5 25 15 20 10 25 15 20 10 Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | ˇ e a ve ¨ untgen ˇ sice) for ´ e republiky, ¨ ahrens und ˇ cek) and grant ´ azdil), no. 13- ı ´ ˇ Cesk ˇ ed ˇ sek, P. Zahradn ´ a ¨ ur die Geschichte M ¨ untgen et al. (2011b) used living 0.36) at decadal resolution over ´ emy a jejich dopady na Morav − 0.05). = ´ a, H. Val extr ı r ´ = p ˇ ckov ı ´ ´ rodn Ustav Geoniky Akademie v ı ´ ˇ r 2450 2449 ˇ 0.38 ( ´ Rezn e p ´ anek). Our thanks to Mr. Tony Long (Svino ´ azdil et al., 2009). Despite great variability since − ´ ustav, ˇ ep ´ y ˇ St ¨ unn, 320 pp., 1901. ¨ arn, Deutscher Verein f ´ y et al., 2009; Trnka et al., 2013) when existing projections are ´ y), no. 13-19831S (L. The authors would like to acknowledge the financial support of the ´ y hydrometeorologick ˇ Cesk 0.47) may be partly related to the higher persistence of PDSI values, since − = r ´ Slezsku (Selected Natural Extremes anduniverzita, Their Impacts in Moravia andv.v.i., Brno, Silesia), Praha, Masarykova Ostrava, 432 pp., 2007. Schlesiens, Verlag des Vereins, Br San Diego, London, Boston, New York, Sydney, Tokyo, Toronto, 610 pp., 1999. In similar fashion, Czech drought frequency chronology correlates significantly with The results of this paper, mainly concerned with the April–September period, may azdil, R. and Kirchner, K., (Eds.): Vybran Br Bradley, R. S.: Paleoclimatology, Reconstructing Climates of the Quaternary, Academic Press, Berger, K.: Geschichte der Stadt B References increased temperatures) over the pastalso 130 yr suggested a (Trnka et significant al., increase 2012).changes in the Recent (e.g. risk Dubrovsk studies of have droughtrealised. events arising The out next of improvement climate inLands the lies study of in pre-instrumental the droughtsmentary creation in data the of and Czech an those overlapfor from the period the quantification between of instrumental precipitation droughts period. indices.for derived Such the This from temperature Czech overlap and Lands docu- is precipitation would series also also necessary facilitate calculationAcknowledgements. of drought indices intoGrant the past. Agency of04291S (P. the Dobrovoln CzechCZ.1.07/2.3.00/20.0248 Republic (M. Trnka, for P. projectsthe English no. style corrections. P209/11/0956 (R. Br of precipitation, the last onsettributed to of significantly droughts increasing in temperatures thecipitation than Czech totals. to Knowledge Lands any that can important contributes be decreaseof to in more particular modelling pre- clearly interest. for However, at- future there drought areLands, episodes signs or is that at agricultural least production in in the parts Czech of them, has grown steadily more sensitive to drought (and severe droughts of the 19th century, in a relatively cooler climate, were caused by lack analysed previously for 1881–2006 (Br AD 1501, the onset of droughts from the 1990s is especially noteworthy. While the 6 Conclusions This paper present anperiod analysis and of a droughts unique in drought(SPEI-1, the chronology based Czech Z-index, on Lands PDSI). documentary in and Theupon the instrumental the AD study data long-term 1090–2012 behaviour of of droughtssonality droughts with and over respect impacts, such to as their a well frequency, severity, as sea- long significantly period extending knowledge casts of light Czech droughts, be complemented by the studyDry by winters Pauling for Central and and Paeth Easterncentury (2007) Europe and for were the winter found second more (DJF) part frequently patterns. other during of hand, the the 18th wet 19th winters century than haveto been for 1951–2000, the less with 1951–2000 frequent the period. in exception On the of the past the three early centuries 18th century compared in Central Europe. intensities (Fig. 4c) andOverall significant the correlation TRW reaches reconstruction in the commonself-calibrated period PDSI 1501–1804. reconstructed fromet pine al., trees 2010) over in thetion the common ( Slovak period Tatra 1730s–1990s. Mts. Athis relatively (B index high better negative characterises correla- long-term drought events (see Sect. 4.3). with the territory of theand Czech historical Lands fir was employed. trees B to“eastern” regional study subset, hydroclimatic covering springtime Germany extremesnificantly and and Czech with Lands, TRW and frequencies from they their correlate ofthe sig- common Czech 1500s–1970s droughts period. Comparable ( results were also disclosed for drought various parts of Central Europe. Only the tree-ring data that is spatially more coherent 5 5 25 20 10 15 25 15 20 10 Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | , ˚ u Jana ˇ Casopis ´ anek, P., , 2006b. ˇ ep ˇ cno), in: Ze , 2011. ˇ St ´ aznam ´ a, M.: A stan- ˇ esta Brna, Archiv , 4–17, not dated. ´ ˇ ı ¨ ´ ckov a, L., Osterr.-Schlesiens, ı ˇ ´ Zalud, Z.: Variabil- ´ ´ at m al), in: Brno v minulosti ˇ ckov ı ´ , 2006a. , 2010. ˇ Rezn 10.1007/s10584-005-5924-1 ´ y of Fan ¨ ahrens und ´ a, J., and Hal 10.1029/2010JD015541 ˇ soft, P., ´ , 2010. alu (The weather in Brno in the 1767– , 2011a. ´ v letech 1767–1790 podle z ee, G., Macdonald, N., and Roald, L. 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Clima- stolet Historick K nim p jak n hodnov Adama z Veleslav Siegfried, W., Glaser,Litzenburger, R., L., Riemann, D., Barriendos,Pribyl, Himmelsbach, M., K., I., Labb Br Contino,and A., Alcoforado, M.: Burmeister, The K.scenario, European Nature Mega-drought H., Climate of Change, 1540 in – preparation, 2013. an evidence based worst case likely warmer than 2003, Clim. Past, 9, 41–56, doi: the jointdoi: e (S1) M (S8) Zemsk (S7) Z Zemek, P.: Barto (S6) SOkA Teplice, fond AM Krupka, dodatky inv. Wolkan, R.: Eine unbekannte Chronik von Joachimsthal, Erzgebirgszeitung, 11, 11–13, 37–39, (S5) SOkA Litom (S4) SOkA Louny, fond AM Louny – kroniky, sign. Ch 1: Chronica civitatis Launensis in Boemia (S3) SOkA Winter, Z.: O (S2) Region Wilson, R. J. S., Luckman, B. H., and Esper, J.: A 500 years dendroclimatic reconstruction of Wetter, O., Pfister, C., Luterbacher, J., Werner, J., Wagner, S., Zorita, E., B Wetter, O. and Pfister, C.: An underestimated record breaking event – why summer 1540 was 5 5 30 25 15 20 10 15 10 Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | ´ e ˇ n, ˚ ulky, ˇ Cesk ˇ rebo ˇ sov nad ˇ stejn, Kd ˇ c, 41 – T ´ y, 35 – Sob ı ´ ´ azdil and Kotyza, ˇ zlice, 12 – Hradec ˇ rice, 23 – Louny, 24 ˇ reb ˇ e ´ ´ e, Ka – Karl a Skalice, 7 – ˇ ´ n, 29 – Praskolesy, 30 a, 46 – Zbraslav, 47 – ´ alov ˇ sov ˇ Cesk ´ achymov, 16 – Jihlava, 17 – ˇ rov, 34 – Slan ˇ n, Va – Varnsdorf, Zb – Zbraslav. ´ yma pa, 6 – ı ´ ˇ ska, 11 – Doma ˇ cno, 28 – Plze ˇ rebo ´ a L ˇ r – T , HK – Hradec Kr ˇ ı ´ Cesk ´ avka, 39 – Trutnov, 40 – T ˇ z, 21 – Krupka, 22 – Litom ı ´ ˇ cnic ˇ r ˇ e 2460 2459 wine ´ y Brod, 44 – Varnsdorf, 45 – Za Hradisko, 14 – Hranice, 15 – J ˇ cek, 38 – Svit ˇ n-Podmokly, 10 – Dobru sov nad Plou ı ´ ı ´ ˇ c ˇ e ˇ stern ´ ´ y Kope a ˇ r, south Bo Shortage of water ´ y Beroun, 26 – Olomouc, 27 – Opo ˇ e, 43 – Uhersk ˇ n, Mo – Moravia, Pr – Prague, T ˇ ˇ st cice, 9 – D ˇ etice, 32 – Roudnice nad Labem, 33 – R m ı ´ ˇ stejn, 19 – Klatovy, 20 – Krom ˇ r ˇ reclav, 3 – Bzenec, 4 – Cheb, 5 – ´ e Hradi ´ a Voda, 37 – Svat Dry weather and droughts in the Czech Lands before 1500 AD (Br , 2 – B ı ´ ˇ ˇ n, 25 – Moravsk Locations and rivers in the Czech Republic mentioned in this paper: 1 – Bene n, Mi – Mimo ´ e, 13 – Hradisko / Kl ˇ n, 18 – Karl ˇ cnic ˇ ejovice, 8 – Da ˇ rerov, 31 – P ´ Year1090/91 Months DJF112111281177 MAM1194 JJA1252 JJA Place1260 JJA1262 MAM Pr, Bo, Mo JJA Pr,1266 MAM–JJA Bo1283 Pr, Bo1307 JJA Description Pr, No Bo rain1312 or MAM snow Pr, Bo Pr,1315 Pr, MAM–JJA Bo Bo1326 JJA Pr, Crops Bo dried1328 before out 2 Aug1333 JJA No details 1334 Zb, before Poor Bo, 13 crop Mo Pr, Aug Bo Pr,1337 JJA Bo Poor (after crop, 22 Zb, high Rainy Bo May) Autumn prices at1348 and the JJA spring end crops of perished, Zb, grass spring.1352 Bo dried Spring south until up, No crops Mo poor Jul details Zb, perished. harvest Bo, of Mo fruit1368 JJA and Poor harvest, famine 1369 after 8 Zb, May Bo1371 from Poor Apr harvest of No cereals, details 1393 fruit (JAS?) Poor and harvest wine Poor No harvest, details 1423 high before Zb, 18 prices, Poor Bo Zb, harvest May famine Bo of1425 summer JJA Pr, cereals, Bo yield of wine1432 JJA low Pr, Bo Pr,1441 Pr, Complete Bo JJA Bo loss of spring1442 crops 2 Bo May–27 Jul1461 2 Apr–2 Aug Poor1469 harvest No JJA of details cereals and Poor1471 wine, harvest JJA high of Ka, prices Pr, cereals Bo central and Bo1473 other May–Sep Land crops dried Pr, Bad BP, out, Ka, Frequent Bo harvest poor fires Bo1476 of JJA cereal spring crop Pr, crops Bo1480 JJA Possible to1482 cross MAM Better the wine River in Vltava Bohemia on than JJA its in Kd bed, Pr, Austria water Bo, due No HK “as Rained to details JJA green only severe as drought once, Mi, grass” lightly, Va during this period Bad harvests of hay, cereals No and details Mi, peas Va Pr, HK, Poor Ka, T harvest BP, Bo of cereals and hay, severe Streams shortage dried Bo of up. water Forest fires. Erroneously No Poor dated details Pr harvest to of 1468 cereals and other crops. Rivers dried up No details Water of the River Vltava green and stinking. Shortages alov ˇ Zelechovice. 42 – Uhersk –P 36 – Star – Mimo Kada Bud Kr Plou Fig. 1. Table 1. 1995): Bo – Bohemia,– BP Kada – Bene Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | ´ azdil and 1 dry month, − n-Podmokly (Br ı ´ ˇ c ˇ e 2462 2461 3 extremely dry month. − Dry months/droughts in the Czech Lands interpreted from documentary evidence for The “hunger stone” at the left bank of the River Elbe at D 2 very dry month, − Fig. 3. the 1501–1804 period, with expression of their intensity by precipitation indices: Fig. 2. Kotyza, 1995). Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | years (a) drought intensity. (c) 2464 2463 5yr in the Czech Lands during the 1805–2012 period. dry months in drought years, ≥ N (b) Droughts expressed by SPEI-1, Z-index and PDSI for April–September with their recur- Decadal frequencies of droughts in the Czech Lands in the 1501–1804 period: rence interval Fig. 5. Fig. 4. with drought, Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | 5, 10, 20, 50, 100) for the Czech = N 2466 2465 year recurrence interval ( N Decadal frequencies of droughts expressed by SPEI-1, Z-index and PDSI for April– Decadal frequencies of droughts in the Czech Lands in the 1501–2012 period compiled Fig. 7. from documentary data (1501–1804) and the instrumental record (1805–2012). Lands in the 1805–2012 period. September in order of their Fig. 6. Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | 2468 2467 April–September precipitation totals in the Czech Republic in 2012 expressed as per- Number of stations used for calculation of the mean Czech series in 1805–1900: (a) tem- Fig. 9. centages of the 1961–1990 mean show contrasts in totals between the various parts. perature, (b) precipitation. Fig. 8. Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | ´ azdil and decadal (a) 2470 2469 in the period 1501–2000. Both series are expressed (b) and decadal means of reconstructed JJA precipitation totals (a) . Both series are expressed as standardised values (z-scores) and values of (b) Decadal frequencies of dry months in the Czech Lands (MAMJJ) Decadal frequencies of dry months in the Czech Lands derived from documentary Fig. 11. sources and instrumental data in Central Europe (Pauling et al., 2006) as standardised values (z-scores) andier values of interpretation precipitation – totals more havemeans positive been for inverted values the for show eas- five more terms. dry periods; black lines represent running precipitation totals have beenshow inverted more for dry easier periods). interpretation (positive values in both graphs Fig. 10. means of MAMJJet precipitation al., totals 2002) reconstructed from TRW in southern Moravia (Br