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Issue Voting with Hearts and Minds: Explaining Heterogeneity in Directional and Proximity Voting

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Issue Voting with Hearts and Minds: Explaining Heterogeneity in Directional and Proximity Voting ISSUE VOTING WITH HEARTS AND MINDS: EXPLAINING HETEROGENEITY IN DIRECTIONAL AND PROXIMITY VOTING By Daniel J. Thaler A DISSERTATION Submitted to Michigan State University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Political Science – Doctor of Philosophy 2015 ABSTRACT ISSUE VOTING WITH HEARTS AND MINDS: EXPLAINING HETEROGENEITY IN DIRECTIONAL AND PROXIMITY VOTING By Daniel J. Thaler Is issue voting a uniform, unchangeable process across individuals and contexts, or is it dynamic and manipulable? Even though scholars have been interested in issue voting since the seminal studies in political behavior, there is still ongoing disagreement about what exactly voters prefer in a candidate’s issue position. I argue that one reason for this lack of consensus is that the issue voting process is not constant across individuals and contexts. My research addresses one of the most prominent unresolved disputes in the behavior literature by seeking to explain heterogeneity in issue voting processes -- why do some voters make decisions based on issue proximity, while others decide based on issue directions? I theorize that proximity voting is a product of technical thinking, while directional voting is a product of emotional thinking. I find that individuals can display either behavior, or even be induced to do so, depending on the strength and salience of each type of consideration at the time of the decision. Copyright by DANIEL J. THALER 2015 Dedicated to my family, my never-ending fount of love and support. iv ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This dissertation would not have been possible without the encouragement and steady mentorship of so many people in my life, to whom I owe the deepest gratitude: To Dr. William Jacoby, my adviser and mentor, the chair and driving force of my dissertation committee, who encouraged me to pursue this research agenda – thank you for your guidance, kindness, patience, and expertise. In good conscience, I could not have asked for a better adviser or a more superb example of professionalism. To Dr. Corwin Smidt, Dr. Paul Abramson, and Dr. Dan Bergan, the members of my committee – thank you for your advice, support, and rigorous standards. To Dr. Stuart MacDonald, Dr. Jamie Monagan, Dr. John Krosnick, and Dr. Laron Williams, who each provided valuable comments and suggestions when I presented earlier versions of this research at academic conferences – thank you for sharing your expertise to help make my work the best it could be. To my saint of a wife, Marissa Thaler; and my zany children, Brock and Sonia – me writing this dissertation has been as much of a sacrifice for you as it has been for me (if not more so). Thank you for your hugs, motivation, and perseverance. I want absolutely nothing in life without each of you by my side. I love you! To my parents, Carolyn Thaler and David Thaler; and my clan of nine brothers and sisters who, thankfully, are far closer emotionally than they are geographically – thank you for setting such a high bar to aspire to. Because of you, I will never be satisfied with anything less than excellence. My dissertation is saved! v TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES..........................................................................................................................................viii LIST OF FIGURES ........................................................................................................................................ix CHAPTER 1 ...................................................................................................................................................1 INTRODUCTION ..........................................................................................................................................1 Why Study Issue Voting?...........................................................................................................4 Why Study Proximity and Directional Voting? .................................................................8 Unanswered Questions ..............................................................................................................9 Why Study Heterogeneity? .....................................................................................................11 Unique Contribution ...................................................................................................................14 Road Map of the Dissertation ..................................................................................................16 CHAPTER 2 ...................................................................................................................................................17 LITERATURE REVIEW AND THEORY ................................................................................................17 Leading Contenders ....................................................................................................................18 Proximity Voting ............................................................................................................18 Directional Voting .........................................................................................................20 Previous Tests ...............................................................................................................................22 Theoretical Argument ................................................................................................................24 CHAPTER 3 ...................................................................................................................................................33 SYMBOLIC ATTACHMENTS AND AVERSIONS ................................................................................33 Symbolic Attachments ...............................................................................................................35 Deriving the Model Equation ..................................................................................................37 Operationalization .......................................................................................................................43 Results ..............................................................................................................................................46 Discussion .......................................................................................................................................53 The Stimulus Matters ...................................................................................................53 Directional vs. Proximity ............................................................................................54 CHAPTER 4 ...................................................................................................................................................56 FRAMING AND IMAGERY ........................................................................................................................56 A Formal Conception of Strategic Manipulation ..............................................................59 Experimental Design ..................................................................................................................63 Summary of Responses by Treatment Group ...................................................................68 Results of Statistical Analyses .................................................................................................73 Candidate Evaluation ...................................................................................................74 Vote Choice ......................................................................................................................77 Discussion .......................................................................................................................................80 vi CHAPTER 5 ...................................................................................................................................................83 ISSUE-BY-ISSUE VOTING ........................................................................................................................83 Effects of Issue-Level Traits on Political Behavior .........................................................85 Conditional Issue Voting with Easy and Hard Issues .....................................................88 Research Design ...........................................................................................................................90 Identifying Easy and Hard Issues ..........................................................................................93 Results ..............................................................................................................................................96 Discussion .......................................................................................................................................101 CHAPTER 6 ...................................................................................................................................................105 CONCLUSION ...............................................................................................................................................105 Implications ...................................................................................................................................106 Scholarly Implications .................................................................................................107
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