An Overview of Planning Issues in Herkimer and Oneida Counties
March ◆ 2002 SPECIAL EDITION
This special edition of Outlook was prepared in response to concerns about the current economic health of our area. While the specific focus here is on Oneida County and the role that transfer payments have in shaping, as well as being shaped by, our local economy, similar information is available concerning Herkimer County and should be forthcoming in a future edition of Outlook. Understanding Oneida County's Personal Income, Per Capita Income, and Local Regional Economic Performance of the 1990s by Dale Miller, Associate Planner, HOCCPP
neida County, like much of New York counties. Often policymakers and the media ment earnings, as well as what has tradition- OState, has experienced considerable see these numbers as an indication of Oneida ally been referred to as entitlement pro- changes since the 1990 Census. One area County’s continuing struggle to right a slid- grams, such as disability, unemployment, that concerns many policymakers is the de- ing local economy. While there is no doubt SSI, food stamps, etc.). gree to which our local economy has recov- that the County has a long ways to go to ered from the devastating effects of the loss claim economic victory, it is important not Per capita income is the total of per- of Griffiss Air Force Base and the loss of to view the personal income data in a vacuum. sonal income for a region or county, divided many high paying jobs due to a number of This brief is an attempt at putting this data in by that area’s total population – including manufacturers leaving the region. While a context which should allow for a fuller every man, woman and child, regardless of these losses have had major impacts on understanding of the significance of per- age, regardless of work status. working wages and the out-migration of sonal income and per capita income data various segments of our population, recently released. policymakers in the region have worked RECENT DATA hard to “turn the bend” and get Oneida County moving toward recovery. PERSONAL Recently a variety of information has INCOME and PER ecent data released through the United been released concerning the personal in- RStates Bureau of Economic Analysis come and per capita income of New York’s CAPITA INCOME (BEA) shows the per capita income of Oneida County as being $23,910 for 1999. This lags considerably behind some comparative While there is no o that the reader has a clear understand- counties in the upstate region. Albany Sing of the terms being used here, it is County, for example, has a per capita in- doubt that the County important to define what is meant by per- come level of more than $32,000; Onondaga sonal income and per capita income. County’s per capita income is about $27,000. has a long ways to go to Personal income is all income received So in some “absolute” sense, Oneida County by a person before deductions for taxes, but continues to trail other areas in terms of its claim economic victory, after deductions for Social Security and overall per capita income figure. things such as retirement. There are three However, it is important to also see it is important not to basic types of personal income: how the region has performed relative to view the personal other counties. In terms of its over all rank- • net labor and proprietors income (this is ing, Oneida County’s per capita income income data in a in essence wages and salary); ranks it as having the 27th best per capita • property income (rent payments, inter- figure in the State for 1999. So in a relative vacuum. est and dividends); and sense, it is doing better than more than half • transfer payments (these include retire- of the State’s counties. 1 payments. Transfer payments in actuality Transfer Payments as a Percent of are derived from three possible components: Total Personal Income by County • government payments to individuals (such as retirement, disability, medical, in- 25.0% come maintenance, and veteran’s benefits ); • government payments to non-profit ◆ ◆ ◆ ◆ ◆ ◆ businesses (which includes federal, state 20.0% ◆ ◆ ▲ ▲ ▲ ● ▲● ▲ ▲ ◆ ▲ ● ● ● and local funds for foster care, and educa- ▲ ● ◆ ◆ ◆ ✽ ✽ ✽ ✽ tional assistance); and ◆ ◆ ◆ ▲ ● ● ✽ ■ ✽ ✽ ■✽ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ 15.0% ▲ ▲ ● ■ • business payments to individuals ▲●■ ■● ▲ ▲ ▲ ● ✽■ ●■ ● ● (largely these are personal injury payments ✽ ✽ ✽ ■✽ ✽■ ■✽ ◆ Oneida County by businesses to non-employees). 10.0% ■ Albany County PERCENT ▲ Broome County Remembering that transfer payments ● are one part of what makes up our total 5.0% Clinton County ✽ Onondaga County personal income (the other two being, in essence, wages/salary, plus rental income), 0.0% one question to be answered is how transfer 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 payments influence our total personal in- come and per capita income figures in Oneida YEAR County and other regions in the State. Since most transfer payments are gen- erally smaller sums (compared to wages, It has also shown considerable recov- Oneida County has seen its per capita in- etc.), the greater the proportion that transfer ery in the last half of the 1990s. In 1985, come grow over the last decade by more payments make up of a region’s overall Oneida County ranked 28th out of all of New than 41%, two thirds of that growth came personal income figure, the smaller the per York State’s counties in per capita income. during the last half of the 1990s. This places capita income for that region is likely to be. By 1990, after suffering some major em- Oneida County as having the 20th fastest In Oneida County transfer payments com- ployment losses, the County had slipped to growing per capita income figure in the state prise about 21% of the personal income 29th. In 1995, Oneida County had fallen to out of 62 counties. figure used to derive per capita income 30th in terms of per capita income, largely What this suggests is that Oneida County during 1999. This represents a jump of more due to the closing of GAFB as well as has, in fact, begun to recover from some than five percentage points since 1985. additional economic losses. As noted above, severe blows to its local economy that oc- Comparing Oneida County with sev- by 1999, Oneida County found itself jump- curred over the last 10 to 15 years. eral other counties, Oneida County has his- ing back up the rankings to 27th. torically had a greater proportion of its per- This represents a considerable recov- REGIONAL sonal income derived from transfer pay- ery in the last 5 years of the decade. While ments than have other areas. As the chart INCOME and below suggests, when compared to Albany, TRANSFER Broome, Clinton, and Onondaga counties, Since Oneida County Oneida County has a larger proportion of its PAYMENTS personal income coming from transfer pay- has experienced both ments sources. Given the inverse relationship of trans- s mentioned previously, personal tough economic times fer payments and per capita income ( i.e. income, and per capita income, are A counties with higher transfer payments as a and an increase in its really derived from three different sources: proportion of personal income tend to have labor and proprietor income; property in- average age, under- lower per capita income) it is not surprising come; and transfer payments. Of these three, to find that Oneida County’s per capita one which has been suspected of having a standing Oneida income level is lower than almost all of considerable negative impact on local in- these same counties. County’s transfer come figures is transfer payments. Interestingly, transfer payments are gen- Transfer payments, for the most part, payments can help to erally indicative of one of two things. Some- are typically thought of as traditional “en- times transfer payments reflect the local titlement” programs. Disability payments, understand its current economic conditions – the proportion of unemployment insurance payments, SSI, personal income derived from transfer pay- economic recovery. and food stamps are typical types of transfer ments increases for a county as a result of an 2 increase in the number people seeking out public assistance and relief programs due to Per Capita Income (1985 - 1999) difficult economic times. More unemploy- ment claims, use of food stamps, etc., will $25,000 cause transfer payments to be a larger pro- ■ ■ portion of a county’s overall total personal $20,000 ■ ■ income. On the other hand, transfer pay- ■ ✽ ■ ✽ ments sometimes reflect the nature of a ■ ■ ✽ ▲ $25,000 ✽ ▲ ◆ region’s population – namely, as the local ■ ■ ✽ ▲ ◆ ■ ✽ ▲ ◆ ● ✽ ✽ ▲ ◆ ● population ages, there is an increased likeli- ■ ✽ ✽ ▲ ▲ ▲ ◆ $20,000 ✽ ▲ ◆ ◆ ● ■ ▲ ▲ ◆ ● ● hood of retirements and the use of disability ■ ✽ ◆ ◆ ● ■ ▲✽ ▲ ◆ ● ● benefits. In addition, of course, a poor ✽ ▲✽ ◆ ● ● $15,000 ▲ ◆ ◆ ● economy also tends to promote out-migra- ◆ ● ● ◆ Oneida County ● ● DOLLARS ■ Albany County tion of more traditional working class popu- $10,000 lations (e.g. 18 to 45 year olds). This de- ▲ Broome County crease of younger wage and salary earners ● Clinton County $5,000 results in an increase in the impact of aging ✽ Onondaga County on personal income; the percentage of re- $0 tired population increases not just because 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 of the aging of the baby boom generation, but also because of an outflow of younger YEAR workers. Since Oneida County has experienced both tough economic times and an increase Transfer Payment Components and in its average age (due to both the aging of the baby boom population as well as the out- Their Annual Totals for migration of younger workers), understand- ing Oneida County’s transfer payments can Oneida County (1985 - 1999) help to understand its current economic re- covery. $1,200,000 ◆ ◆ ◆ $1,000,000 ◆ ◆ ◆ COMPONENTS ◆ ◆ $800,000 of TRANSFER ◆ ◆ ◆ PAYMENTS $600,000 ◆ ◆ ◆ ◆ ransfer payments are made up of three $400,000 ◆ Gov't Payments to Individuals Tcomponents – government payments ▲ Gov't Payments to Nonprofits to individuals, government payments to non- $200,000 ✽ Business Payments to Individuals profits, and business payments to individu- als. Of these three components, government ▲✽ ▲✽ ▲✽ ▲✽ ▲✽ ▲✽ ▲✽ ▲✽ ▲✽ ▲✽ ▲✽ ▲✽ ▲✽ ▲✽ ▲✽ payments to individuals is far and away the in THOUSANDS of DOLLARS $0 largest single component. Almost 96% of 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 all transfer payments in Oneida County origi- YEAR nated from government payments to indi- viduals in 1999. Percentage-wise, this is up slightly from Given that government payments to disability, medical payments, income main- 1990. On an absolute dollar basis, the costs individuals is the largest portion of transfer tenance, unemployment, veterans benefits, of government payments to individuals has payments, the focus becomes what is there and others. Two types of payments make up skyrocketed. Whereas nearly $500 million about these payments that has contributed to most of government payments to individu- dollars worth of government payments to this huge increase over the last 15 years. als, as seen in the chart below. individuals came to Oneida County citizens As mentioned earlier, government pay- While income maintenance payments during 1985, by 1999 this figure had double ments to individuals are comprised of sev- have increased somewhat steadily for Oneida to more than $1 billion. eral sources. These include retirement and County over the period, and unemployment
3 payments spiked around 1992, clearly re- Government Transfer Payments tirement/disability payments and medical to Individuals in Oneida County benefit payments have had the greatest im- pact on transfer payments in the County. (1985 - 1999) Retirement/disability payments have risen considerably in the last 15 years, but not $500,000 nearly as dramatically as medical payments. ◆ ◆ While retirement/disability payments have $450,000 ❙ ❙ ❙ risen some 70% since 1985, medical pay- ❙ ◆ ❙ ◆ ments have leapt by more than 250% over $400,000 ❙ ❙ ◆ ❙ the same time frame. $350,000 ❙ ◆ Oneida County’s growth in its retire- ❙ ❙ ◆ ment/disability component of transfer pay- $300,000 ❙ ❙ ◆ ments has been similar, but somewhat ❙ ❙ $250,000 ◆ smaller, than comparative counties. While Oneida County has seen these payments to ◆ $200,000 ◆ individuals grow by about 71% in the last 15 ◆ ◆ years, other counties have seen their retire- $150,000 ◆ ◆ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ment/disability payments grow even more ■ ■ ■ $100,000 ■ dramatically, as seen below. ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ In comparison, Oneida County’s medi-
in THOUSANDS of DOLLARS $50,000 ▲ ▲ ▲ ● ● cal transfer payments have outpaced most ● ● ● ● ▲● ▲● ● ● ● ▲● ▲● ▲● ▲ ● ▲ ▲✽ ▲✽ ▲✽ ▲ ✽ ✽ ✽ ✽ ✽ ✽ ✽ ✽ ✽ ▲✽ ✽ $0 ★ ★ ★ ★✽ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ comparative counties. While other counties 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 such as Broome (209%), Albany (223%), YEAR and Onondaga (230%) have experienced huge jumps in their medical transfer pay- ◆ Medical✽ Federal Education & Training ment costs, Oneida County has seen its costs ■ Income Maintenance★ Other balloon to about 250%. ▲ Unemployment Insurance❙ Retirement & Disability ● Veterans THE IMPACT of TRANSFER Retirement and Medical Transfer PAYMENTS in Payment Growth in Oneida County ONEIDA COUNTY Over 15 Year Period (1985 - 1999) hile the data available for analysis 250% Wisn’t complete enough to assess a Retirement Payments true monetary impact of transfer payments Medical Payments on Oneida County’s local economic num- 200% bers, several impacts are still clear. First, the data suggest that Oneida County has a considerably greater propor- 150% tion (21% in 1999) of its total personal income being derived from transfer pay- ments than do many other counties. Oneida 100% County remains in the top third among NYS counties in terms of the percentage of its PERCENT GROWTH 50% personal income based in transfer payments. This means more of Oneida County’s local economy, and personal income figures, are 0% based on “entitlement” types of programs 3 Yrs 6 Yrs 9 Yrs 12 Yrs 15 Yrs than are many other counties. YEARS Oneida County’s percentage of per- sonal income derived from transfer pay- 4 ments has also been increasing in the last 15 years. It has climbed from about 16% to Comparisons of Retirement/ about 21%. This increase is probably a func- tion of both the aging of the local population Disability Transfer Payment Costs as well as the economic difficulties with (1985 - 1999) which the region has had to deal. This sug- gests that, while the County not only has had 140.0% a larger proportion of its personal income ◆ Oneida County based on transfer payment programs, the ▲ 120.0% ■ Albany County percentage is growing. ▲ The growth specifically of government Broome County 100.0% ● ▲ ✽ payments to individuals, as a component of Clinton County ✽ Onondaga County ◆■ transfer payments, has been dramatic since 80.0% ✽ 1985. These payments have far out-stripped ■◆ ● any growth in payments to non-profits or 60.0% ✽ ● ▲■ business payments components of transfer ◆ ● payments. 40.0% Of particular concern is the huge leap ▲■✽ PERCENT CHANGE ●◆ that medical payments have had in terms of 20.0% ▲■ ◆●✽ 0.0% While Oneida County 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 still has a long ways to YEARS go, it has shown Percentage Growth in Medical resilience. Its over all Transfer Payments Costs Since 1985 per capita income level is better than most 300.0% ◆ Oneida County ▲ other counties within 250.0% ■ Albany County ● ▲ ✽ Broome County ◆ ■ the State. ● ▲● 200.0% Clinton County ■✽ ✽ Onondaga County ◆ government payments to individuals. While the retirement/disability payment portion of 150.0% ●■✽ government payments to individuals has ▲◆ grown considerably, medical payments, as a 100.0% proportion of this type of transfer payment ▲■ has more than doubled and overtaken retire- PERCENT GROWTH ●✽ 50.0% ◆ ment/disability as the major form of transfer payment with in Oneida County. This sug- ◆▲■✽● gests that programs such as Medicaid and 0.0% Medicare are burgeoning and are having a 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 quickly increasing influence on local eco- YEARS nomic numbers. Despite these facts and the growing impact of transfer payments on Oneida County, the County has made some recov- siderably stronger in the last five years. decade. This is not to say that there isn’t ery, especially in the latter half of the 1990s. More than two thirds of its per capita income room for increased growth or that regionally While Oneida County still has a long ways growth during the 1990s has been since we have completed our recovery. Clearly to go, it has shown resilience. Its over all per 1995. there is a long ways to go economically. capita income level is better than most other What all of these numbers suggest is Rather, it is to say that increasing trans- counties within the State. In addition, its that Oneida County has seen considerable fer payments to the region have had the growth in per capita income has been con- economic recovery in the last half of the past effect of “depressing” local per capita and 5 Ralph J. Eannace, Jr., County Executive Michael A. Gapin, Program Director Michele Huther, Editor & Graphic Artist Eileen Markis, Word Processor Is Published by
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transfer payments may lower the region’s the lower may payments transfer allow a more accurate perception of the of perception accurate more a allow
ent. health. Recognizing how factors such as such factors how Recognizing health. “average” economic pulse of the region, can region, the of pulse economic “average”
◆
region’s economic vitality to become appar- become to vitality economic region’s common measures of a region’s economic region’s a of measures common per capita income and other measures of the of measures other and income capita per
It’s necessary to look beyond the more the beyond look to necessary It’s
they impact upon the region is important. is region the upon impact they
regionally we have completed our recovery. our completed have we regionally
standing the role of transfer payments as payments transfer of role the standing
policymaker’s control), certainly under- certainly control), policymaker’s that there isn’t room for increased growth or that or growth increased for room isn’t there that
for example, that is a variable beyond any beyond variable a is that example, for
the last half of the past decade. This is not to say to not is This decade. past the of half last the degree this is due to aging of the population, the of aging to due is this degree
tion” to this type of issue (after all, to the to all, (after issue of type this to tion”
County has seen considerable economic recovery in recovery economic considerable seen has County
While there is no ready made “solu- made ready no is there While
economy.
W hat all of these numbers suggest is that Oneida that is suggest numbers these of all hat
might mask an otherwise recovering otherwise an mask might personal income figures in a way which way a in figures income personal