The Coronavirus Stimulus Package: How large is the transfer multiplier?∗ Christian Bayer, Benjamin Born, Ralph Luetticke, and Gernot J. Müller June 2020 Abstract In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, large parts of the economy have been locked down and, as a result, households’ income risk has risen sharply. At the same time, policy makers have put forward the largest stimulus package in history. In the U.S., it amounts to $2 trillion, a quarter of which is earmarked for transfer payments to households. To the extent that such transfers are conditional on recipients being unemployed, they mitigate income risk and the adverse impact of the lockdown ex ante. Unconditional transfers, in contrast, stabilize income ex post. We simulate the effects of a lockdown in a medium-scale HANK model and quantify the impact of transfers. For the short run, we find large differences in the transfer multiplier: it is 0.25 for unconditional transfers and 1.5 for conditional transfers. Overall, we find that the transfers reduce the output loss due to the pandemic by up to 5 percentage points. Keywords: COVID-19, Coronavirus, CARES Act, fiscal policy, stimulus, targeted transfer, transfer multiplier, lockdown, quarantine JEL-Codes: D31, E32, E62 ∗Bayer: University of Bonn, CEPR, CESifo, and IZA,
[email protected], Born: Frank- furt School of Finance & Management, CEPR, and CESifo,
[email protected], Luetticke: University Col- lege London, CEPR, and CFM,
[email protected], Müller: University of Tübingen, CEPR, CESifo,
[email protected]. We thank (virtual) seminar audiences at the Atlanta Fed, Banque de France, University of Hamburg, Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK), MMCN Webinar Series on Macroe- conomic Modelling and Pandemics, Virtual Macro Seminars (VMACS), and the 2020 meeting of the VfS Committee on Macroeconomics.