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Post-Truth Politics in the Age of Social Media Rodrigo Duterte’s guide to diplomacy What is Gulenism? Introverts: overlooked and undervalued Rise of the wooden skyscraper SEPTEMBER 10TH–16TH 2016 Art of the lie Post-truth politics in the age of social media DRIVE DE CARTIER LARGE DATE, RETROGRADE SECOND TIME ZONE AND DAY/NIGHT INDICATOR 1904-FU MC THE DRIVE DE CARTIER COLLECTION IS ELEGANCE REDEFINED. THE SLEEK LINES OF THIS CUSHION-SHAPED WATCH CREATE A TRULY STYLISH PIECE, BROUGHT TO LIFE BY THE MAISON MANUFACTURE MOVEMENT 1904-FU MC. ITS THREE COMPLICATIONS ARE COORDINATED DIRECTLY BY THE CROWN. ESTABLISHED IN 1847, CARTIER CREATES EXCEPTIONAL WATCHES THAT COMBINE DARING DESIGN AND WATCHMAKING SAVOIR-FAIRE. #WHATDRIVESYOU Shop the new collection on cartier.com ECONOMIST_203x267_PUWA1726.indd 1 08/07/2016 14:24 Contents The Economist September 10th 2016 5 7 The world this week Asia 31 Afghan refugees in Leaders Pakistan Homecoming spleen 9 Post-truth politics Art of the lie 32 Ending Myanmar’s insurgencies 10 Elections in Hong Kong A long road A not-so-local difficulty 33 Japanese politics 10 England’s National Get the party started Health Service Bitter pills 34 The wit and wisdom of Rodrigo Duterte Britain’s National Health 11 Reform in the Gulf Shoot from the lip Service The NHS is in terrible Time to sheikh it up 34 Australia and China shape. Keeping it alive 12 Interest-rate caps You can’t buy trust requires medicine both the On the cover Cut-price logic left and right will find hard to Politicians have always lied. swallow: leader, page10. China Does it matter if they leave Letters Reformers believe that new the truth behind entirely? 35 Politics in Hong Kong models of health care, many 13 On housing, wild horses, Leader, page 9. The manner The rise of localism pioneered in other countries, Scotland, longevity in which some politicians 36 Giant pandas can fix things, page 48 now lie, and the havoc they Survival of the cutest may wreak by doing so, are Briefing 37 Banyan worrying, pages17-20. 17 The post-truth world Trouble burying Mao An American sociologist Yes, I’d lie to you examines a political conundrum, page 70. Russian Middle East and Africa Tweetaganda, page 45 United States 38 Labour laws in the Gulf 21 Obamacare Hard work Encumbered exchange 39 Gulf migration The Economist online 23 The campaign Open doors but different Daily analysis and opinion to On the trail laws supplement the print edition, plus 23 National security 40 Extremism in Jordan audio and video, and a daily chart Sewers to submarines Muzzling mosques Economist.com Going after Gulenists 24 Georgetown and slavery 40 Driving in Johannesburg Turkey’s post-coup crackdown E-mail: newsletters and Atonement Bad robots has become a witch-hunt, mobile edition 26 Lexington page 42 Economist.com/email 41 Somalia The urban-rural canyon Most-failed state Print edition: available online by 7pm London time each Thursday Economist.com/print The Americas Europe Audio edition: available online 27 A Mexican minister falls 42 Turkey’s Gulen purges to download each Friday Invite Trump, get dumped A conspiracy so immense Economist.com/audioedition 28 Avocado wars 43 Spain’s coalition talks Rich, creamy and rare Ageing caretakers 28 Venezuela’s hapless 43 Ireland and Europe leader Upsetting the Apple cart Chávez without the charm 44 Homeopathy in Germany 30 Bello Not a molecule of sense Volume 420 Number 9006 Sacking Brazilian presidents 45 Trump and the Russians Economic reform in the Gulf Published since September1843 Brazen meddling How to get Gulf citizens to to take part in "a severe contest between work: leader, page 11. Forcing intelligence, which presses forward, and 45 Russian social media an unworthy, timid ignorance obstructing Tweetaganda the private sector to hire our progress." locals is hard and misguided, 46 Charlemagne Editorial offices in London and also: page 38. Because migrants in Atlanta, Beijing, Berlin, Brussels, Cairo, Chicago, Unshrinking the continent the Gulf have few rights, more Lima, Mexico City, Moscow, Mumbai, Nairobi, New Delhi, New York, Paris, San Francisco, of them are let in, page 39 São Paulo, Seoul, Shanghai, Singapore, Tokyo, Washington DC 1 Contents continues overleaf 6 Contents The Economist September 10th 2016 Britain 64 Private equity The Omaha play 47 Britain and the EU What will Brexit mean? 64 Financial education Quantum of scholars 48 The NHS Accident and emergency 65 Free exchange Work-life balance International Science and technology 51 Race in Brazil and America Slavery’s different legacies 66 Wooden buildings Top of the tree Speculating in commodities 67 The story of yeast Wooden skycrapers The case A surge in capital from hedge Business Domesticated tipple for building tall structures funds is making commodity 53 A.P. Moller-Maersk 68 Military technology from wood is not barking, markets more choppy, page 60 Profits overboard Top Gun’s topper page 66 54 Auditors aren’t so bad Box ticked Books and arts Subscription service 55 Reliance Jio 69 China For our latest subscription offers, visit Free speech Economist.com/offers Water kingdom For subscription service, please contact by 55 Smartphones 70 The right in America telephone, fax, web or mail at the details Still ringing bells provided below: Hand on heart 56 Fashion retailing North America 70 Steven Runciman The Economist Subscription Center Passé P.O. Box 46978, St. Louis, MO 63146-6978 Shades of Byzantium Telephone: +1 800 456 6086 57 The space business 71 Venice film festival Facsimile: +1 866 856 8075 Mission, interrupted E-mail: [email protected] Showtime 57 German firms in America Latin America & Mexico 72 Johnson The Economist Subscription Center Making eyes P.O. Box 46979, St. Louis, MO 63146-6979 Trouble at sea A crisis in Talking in tongues Telephone: +1 636 449 5702 shipping is forcing the 58 German power companies Facsimile: +1 636 449 5703 industry’s leader to do things Breaking bad E-mail: [email protected] differently, page 53 59 Schumpeter 76 Economic and financial Subscription for 1 year (51 issues) Managing introverts indicators United States US $158.25 (plus tax) Statistics on 42 economies, Canada CA $158.25 (plus tax) plus our monthly poll of Latin America US $289 (plus tax) Finance and economics forecasters 60 Investing in commodities Of mice and markets Principal commercial offices: Obituary 25 St James’s Street, London sw1a 1hg 61 Buttonwood 78 Juan Gabriel Tel: +44 20 7830 7000 Green investing Mexico’s mirror Rue de l’Athénée 32 1206 Geneva, Switzerland 62 The G20 Tel: +4122 566 2470 Agreeing to disagree 750 3rd Avenue, 5th Floor, New York, NY 10017 62 Kenya’s interest-rate cap Tel: +1212 5410500 Ceiling whacks 1301Cityplaza Four, 63 Offshore finance 12 Taikoo Wan Road, Taikoo Shing, Hong Kong Managing the reticent Tel: +852 2585 3888 Companies would benefit from The Bahamas helping introverts to thrive: Other commercial offices: Chicago, Dubai, Frankfurt, Los Angeles, Schumpeter, page 59 Paris, San Francisco and Singapore PEFC certified This copy of The Economist is printed on paper sourced from sustainably managed forests certified to PEFC PEFC/29-31-58 www.pefc.org © 2016 The Economist Newspaper Limited. All rights reserved. Neither this publication nor any part of it may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of The Economist Newspaper Limited. The Economist (ISSN 0013-0613) is published every week, except for a year-end double issue, by The Economist Newspaper Limited, 750 3rd Avenue, 5th Floor, New York, N Y 10017. The Economist is a registered trademark of The Economist Newspaper Limited. Periodicals postage paid at New York, NY and additional mailing offices. Postmaster: Send address changes to The Economist, P.O. Box 46978, St. Louis , MO. 63146-6978, USA. Canada Post publications mail (Canadian distribution) sales agreement no. 40012331. Return undeliverable Canadian addresses to The Economist, PO Box 7258 STN A, Toronto, ON M5W 1X9. GST R123236267. Printed by Quad/Graphics, Saratoga Springs, NY 12866 The world this week The Economist September 10th 2016 7 emissions. Mr Obama plans to A wounded animal Hungary’s prime minister, Politics bypass the Republican-con- At least 40 people were killed Viktor Orban, and the leader trolled Senate, which is re- in a series ofbombings in ofPoland’s nationalist Law quired to give its approval to Syria forwhich Islamic State and Justice party, Jaroslaw any treaty, reasoning that the (IS) claimed responsibility. Kaczynski, joined forces to agreement constitutes an Possibly synchronised explo- launch a “cultural counter- executive action. He may try to sions tookplace in Tartus, revolution” to put an end to push the deal through before Homs and a suburb of Europe’s “crisis ofconscience”. he leaves office in January. Damascus (all areas held by Mr Orban’s anti-immigrant the government), and in government has formed close Hurricane Hermine battered Hasakah, which is controlled ties with Poland since Mr north Florida. It was the first by Kurdish forces. Kaczynski’s party tookpower hurricane to hit the state since there last October. Wilma in 2005, and caused a Turkey sent more tanks into lot less damage. northern Syria and is closer to Russia’s last remaining sealing offIS’s access to its independent polling firm, the Hong Kong held elections for Hillary Clinton and Donald border. Turkey’s president, Levada Centre, was designated its 70-member Legislative Trump tookpart in a televised Recep Tayyip Erdogan, said a “foreign agent” by the Council, known as Legco. Six forum that focused on foreign that together with America, government, two weeks ahead ofthe successful candidates policy.
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