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Central Bank Statistics As a Servant of Two Separate Mandates – Price Stability and Mitigation on Statisti Ce S C CENTRAL BANK STATISTICS AS A SERVANT OF TWO SEPARATE MANDATES – pRICE STABILITY AND MITIGATION ON STATISTI CE N OF SYSTEMIC RISK E R E ONF C ECB SIXTH NTRAL BANK E SIXTH ECB AN C CONFERENCE E ON STATISTICS EUROP 17 and 18 April 2012 CENTRAL BANK STATISTICS AS A SERVANT OF TWO SEPARATE MANDATES – pRICE STABILITY AND MITIGATION OF SYSTEMIC RISK SIXTH ECB CONFERENCE ON STATISTICS 17 and 18 April 2012 © European Central Bank, 2012 Address Kaiserstrasse 29 D-60311 Frankfurt am Main Germany Postal address Postfach 16 03 19 D-60066 Frankfurt am Main Germany Telephone +49 69 1344 0 Internet http://www.ecb.europa.eu Fax +49 69 1344 6000 All rights reserved. Reproduction for educational and non-commercial purposes is permitted provided that the source is acknowledged. ISBN 978-92-899-0835-1 (print) ISBN 978-92-899-0834-4 (online) CONTENTS FOREWORD BY MARIO DRAGHI 7 PROGRAMME 9 SUMMARY OF CONTRIBUTIONS BY AUREL SCHUBERT, PAOLO POLONI AND RICHARD WALTON 13 STATISTICS TO DELIVER PRICE STABILITY AND MITIGATE SYSTEMIC RISK BY MARIO DRAGHI 33 1 Future challenges for monetary statistics IN A CHANGING ENVIRONMENT 39 Ignazio Visco 39 Muhammad bin Ibrahim 41 Aycan Özek and Gülbin Şahinbeyoğlu 54 András Simor 71 José Luis Malo de Molina 79 Discussion summary 86 2 HOW FIT FOR USE ARE STATISTICS FOR MACRO-PRUDENTIAL OVERSIGHT? 91 Choongsoo Kim 91 Vítor Constâncio 93 Andreas Ittner 102 Jean-Philippe Thierry 113 Philipp Hartmann 116 Discussion summary 121 MACRO-PRUDENTIAL SURVEILLANCE AND STATISTICAL CHALLENGES BY ANDREAS DOMBRET 125 3 MICRO-FOUNDATIONS OF MACRO DATA 133 Klaas Knot 133 Andrea Enria 136 Enrico Giovannini 145 Hugo Frey Jensen 159 Irena Križman 165 Discussion summary 169 3 4 FINANCIAL MARKET PARTICIPANTS AS USERS OF ECONOMIC STATISTICS 173 Jozef Makúch 173 Natacha Valla 176 James Ashley and Jens Larsen 180 Claudia Buch, Cathérine Tahmee Koch and Michael Koetter 188 Walter Radermacher 207 Adelheid Bürgi-Schmelz 213 Mark Beatson 218 Discussion summary 221 FUTURE CHALLENGES FOR CENTRAL BANK STATISTICS BY JOSÉ MANUEL GONZÁ LEZ­‑PÁ RAMO 225 CONTRIBUTORS AND RAPPORTEURS 231 4 6 FOREWORD In April 2012 the ECB hosted its sixth biennial conference on statistics, entitled “Central bank statistics as a servant of two separate mandates – price stability and mitigation of systemic risk”. The conference attracted a wide range of policy- makers, including a number of members of the ECB’s Governing Council and users and compilers of statistics from central banks, supervisory authorities, statistical institutes, international institutions, academia, the media and the financial industry. The conference provided an opportunity to discuss ways of strengthening the information basis for the fulfilment of the mandates given to the ECB and to the European Systemic Risk Board. The topics included: i) the supply of statistics in multi-purpose data collection, for both monetary policy and macro-prudential oversight; ii) the use of micro data in macro measurement and iii) issues related to the use of economic statistics by financial market participants. I firmly believe that good data are essential for making good decisions. Producing high-quality statistics on the financial sector is a core activity of central banks, both for policy-making and for communicating their decisions and thus also for the credibility of our actions. Today, the key challenges for the central bank statistical community concern the growing need for accurate, timely and granular data, and the necessary availability of adequate resources to address complex organisational and conceptual changes in statistics. It is vital to collect more data consolidated at the level of banking groups or insurance groups and more data to monitor unregulated financial institutions and markets. Aggregates alone are not sufficient, as policy-makers and analysts need access to the underlying micro data owing to the increased policy relevance of and emphasis being put on, data “outliers” and so-called “tail risks”. Moreover, since the boundaries of the phenomena under investigation are changing quickly, a high degree of adaptability among statistics’ compilers is required. An important issue in this respect concerns the confidentiality of individual data, and supervisory data in particular. In this context, conference participants discussed how to find the right balance between the need for confidentiality and the possibility of data sharing. There is also an increasing need for statisticians to present their results in a meaningful way and to communicate clearly with users, the press and the general public. Data revisions in particular have rightly or wrongly captured the limelight and need to be explained carefully. All this entails good cooperation not only at the European level but also at the national level between central banks, statistical institutes and supervisory authorities, and requires efficient data transmission and processing between different organisations and consistency with initiatives taken at the global level. As witnessed by the quality of the contributions collected in this book, the Sixth ECB Statistics Conference has made a significant contribution to the better 7 understanding of the statistical demands created by the financial and sovereign debt crises. I hope this will provide valuable food for thought for future initiatives by statisticians aimed at meeting the needs of policy-makers in the fields of monetary policy and financial stability, and I trust that other readers of this book will equally benefit from these insights. Mario Draghi President 8 PROGRAMME TUESDAY, 17 APRIL 2012 1 p.m. - 2.30 p.m. Registration and lunch reception 2.30 p.m. - 3 p.m. Introductory speech Mario Draghi, President, European Central Bank 3 p.m. - 4.30 p.m. Session 1 Future challenges for monetary statistics in a changing environment Chair: Ignazio Visco, Governor, Banca d’Italia Muhammad bin Ibrahim, Deputy Governor, Bank Negara Malaysia Aycan Özek, Deputy Director Statistics Department, Central Bank of Turkey Discussants: András Simor, Governor, Magyar Nemzeti Bank José Luis Malo de Molina, Director General Economics, Statistics and Research Department, Banco de España 4.30 p.m. - 5 p.m. Coffee break 5 p.m. - 6.30 p.m. Session 2 How fit for use are statistics for macro-prudential oversight? Chair: Choongsoo Kim, Governor, Bank of Korea Vítor Constâncio, Vice-President, European Central Bank Andreas Ittner, Executive Director, Oesterreichische Nationalbank, and Vice-Chair of the Advisory Technical Committee of the European Systemic Risk Board Discussants: Jean-Philippe Thierry, member of the General Council and Vice-Chair, Prudential Supervisory Authority, Banque de France Philipp Hartmann, Deputy Director General Research, European Central Bank 7 p.m. - 8 p.m. Welcome reception 8 p.m. Dinner hosted by José Manuel González-Páramo, Member of the Executive Board, European Central Bank Keynote speech Andreas Dombret, Member of the Executive Board, Deutsche Bundesbank PROGRAMME 9 WEDNESDAY, 18 APRIL 2012 8 a.m. - 8.30 a.m. Registration and coffee 8.30 a.m. - 10.30 a.m. Session 3 Micro-foundations of macro data Chair: Klaas Knot, President, De Nederlandsche Bank Andrea Enria, Chair, European Banking Authority Enrico Giovannini, President, National Institute of Statistics, Italy Discussants: Hugo Frey Jensen, Governor, Danmarks Nationalbank Irena Križman, Director General, Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia 10.30 a.m. - 11 a.m. Coffee break 11 a.m. - 1 p.m. Session 4 Financial market participants as users of economic statistics Chair: Jozef Makúch, Governor, Národná banka Slovenska Natacha Valla, Chief Economist and Executive Director, Goldman Sachs Jens Larsen, Chief European Economist, and James Ashley, Senior European Economist, Royal Bank of Canada Claudia Buch, University of Tübingen, and Cathérine Tahmee Koch, University of Zurich Walter Radermacher, Director General, Eurostat Discussants: Adelheid Bürgi-Schmelz, Director, Statistics Department, International Monetary Fund Mark Beatson, FTI Economic Consulting 1 p.m. - 1.30 p.m. Concluding speech José Manuel González-Páramo, Member of the Executive Board, European Central Bank 1.30 p.m. - 2.30 p.m. Lunch 2.30 p.m. - 3.30 p.m. Preview of a book on ESCB statistics to mark the twentieth anniversary of the ESCB Statistics Committee. Presentation by Peter Bull. 3.30 p.m. Close of conference 10 PROGRAMME 12 SUMMARY OF CONTRIBUTIONS AUREL SCHUBERT, PAOLO POLONI AND RICHARD WALTON The themes discussed during the Sixth European Central Bank (ECB) Conference on Statistics focused on the supply of statistics for monetary policy and macro-prudential oversight, the use of micro data in macro measurement, and communicating statistics. This introduction provides a summary of the contributions and discussions contained in the rest of this volume. The conference started with an introductory speech given by the ECB President Mario Draghi, and it was structured into four sessions: 1. Future challenges for monetary statistics in a changing environment. 2. How fit for use are statistics for macro-prudential oversight. 3. Micro foundations of macro data. 4. Financial markets participants as users of economic statistics. Andreas Dombret, member of the Executive Board of the Deutsche Bundesbank, delivered a keynote speech between the second and third sessions, and Jose Manuel González-Páramo, member of the ECB’s Executive Board, gave the closing speech. The conference offered also a preview of a book on European System of Central Banks (ESCB) statistics to mark the 20th anniversary of the ESCB Statistics Committee, which was presented by Peter Bull. In his opening address, Mario Draghi reflected on the key statistical challenges arising from the financial crisis and the role of statisticians. He then mentioned selected initiatives aimed at filling in data gaps, bearing in mind constraints related to reporting burdens and data confidentiality. The key challenges concern the need for very timely and granular data, and complex conceptual changes in statistics. For instance, traditional monetary statistics are unable to gather information on financial groups that operate across borders and through non-bank subsidiaries.
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