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European Real Snapshot!

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European Real Snapshot! European Real SnapShot! Current developments in the key real estate markets in Europe Special focus: Digitalization Autumn 2016 Content 6 37 Germany Switzerland Yield Sustained capital flow compression driving real estate continues investment 10 41 United Kingdom Austria Life goes on Benefiting from amid Brexit favourable economic uncertainty conditions 15 44 Nordic Region Italy A tale Confidence of four continues to countries strengthen 20 49 The Netherlands Spain Growth prospects fuel Favourable record breaking deal economic volume conditions 24 52 Belgium CEE Market conditions Investment market remain at the highest level challenging since the crisis 27 59 Luxembourg Russia A more Facing diverse the new economy reality 32 63 France Turkey Take-up volumes boosted Geopolitical by strong demand from risks on large companies the rise European Real SnapShot! 1 Brexit impacts on the European Investment in the European real estate market dropped significantly in Q2 2016 compared to the same quarter last year, falling by 26% to EUR55.bn. EUR107.5bn was invested in H1 2016, down by 30% compared to the same period Transaction in 2015. The uncertainty triggered by Britain’s vote leave the European Union has reduced investors’ appetite for risk. With supply of safe investments extremely limited, this has Market led to increased competition and further falls in yields in the Core sector, and a drop in the volume of transactions. The uncertainties associated with the implementation of the Brexit decision have had a particular impact on trends in the United Kingdom, the largest European real estate investment market. At -53%, this was the greatest fall in investment recorded in Q2 2016. London was hit particularly hard, with a fall of 75% compared to the same quarter in 2015. Significantly less was invested in Germany too, Europe’s second largest market. This market attracted 42% less investment than in the same period in 2015. With Germany and the UK making up over 40% of the European market, the fall in transaction volume in these two countries has led to a reduction in investment activity in the overall European market. However, there were positive trends in seven of the ten largest markets: amongst others, Sweden (+68%), Spain (+51%) and Italy (+76%) experienced notable growth compared to Q2 2015. Spain and Italy in particular appear to be slowly recovering from their longstanding decline. Finland, in tenth place, was the only other top 10 market to record a fall in transaction activity (-6%). Despite substantial falls in investment volumes in the UK, to date there has been limited negative impact on direct real estate investment prices. To date, Brexit has put pressure mainly on indirect real estate investments. It is not yet clear whether values of direct real estate investments will be hit next, especially as long term economic prospects are perceived to be positive. Stefan Pfister CEO KPMG Switzerland Head of Real Estate Europe / EMA 2 European Real SnapShot! “Investment in real estate remains very attractive in the current low interest rate environment.“ We anticipate that the uncertainties created by the Brexit The basis for European real estate investments remains vote will accentuate the dichotomy in the UK real estate stable. However, Europe is facing numerous (mostly investment market. Prime assets in key locations with long political) risks. Brexit may not necessarily be an isolated leases in place will be impacted least because of the event. In the EU, important political decisions are being strong demand from global investors for investments taken over the current year and next year: an Italian which can hold their value. It is assumed that non- constitutional referendum in November, elections in Spain European investors, particularly from Asia and the Middle likely at the end of 2016, and the French presidential and East, will be the most active in the London property German federal parliament elections in 2017. Political market. European investors will be more cautious – outcomes with negative impacts on the economy could lead because of the currency risk and solid fundamental data in to a downward adjustment of economic forecasts, which their home markets they will once more turn their attention have the potential to put the brakes on the real estate to their domestic markets. This trend has already been investment market. seen in some markets such as France, where the largest transactions in the office market in the first half of the year The current market environment is very different from that almost exclusively involved domestic buyers.Opportunistic in the crisis years of 2008 and 2009. The market is investors meanwhile may be prepared to seize investment adequately supplied with debt and equity capital. There is no opportunities in the event of corrections in values in the credit crisis in sight. Moreover, most market players are United Kingdom market. holding real estate investments as long term assets, reducing speculative risk. Despite economic and political Although there has been a marked drop in investment uncertainties, investment in real estate remains very activity in Europe compared to 2015, an optimistic view of attractive in the current low interest rate environment. the future can be taken. 2015 was characterised by unusually high transaction volumes. Even without Brexit, achieving a similarly high volume of transactions – the highest since 2007 – would not have been an easy undertaking in view of the lack of suitable assets Stefan Pfister available. CEO KPMG Switzerland, Head of Real Estate Europe/EMA European Real SnapShot! 3 Market Cycle Office Expansion 05 Oversupply 08 04 19 34 15 11 16 10 02 23 25 24 12 20 03 06/07 01 31 09 27/28 13 17 18 21 36 39 22 35 32 29 14 30 33 37 26 38 Recovery Contraction Rents Rents increasing decreasing Source: KPMG Qualitative Market Assessment Germany Nordic Region Luxembourg Switzerland Italy CEE 01 Berlin CBD 08 Stockholm 15 Luxembourg’s CBD 21 Zurich CBD 25 Milan 31 Prague 02 Munich CBD 09 Copenhagen 16 Kirchberg 22 Geneva CBD 26 Rome 32 Budapest 03 Frankfurt CBD 10 Oslo 23 Basel CBD 33 Warsaw 11 Helsinki France Spain 34 Bucharest UK 17 Paris CBD Austria 27 Madrid CBD 35 Belgrade 04 London City The Netherlands 18 Paris La Défense 24 Vienna 28 Barcelona CBD 36 Bratislava 05 London West End 12 Amsterdam South Axis 19 Lyon 29 Madrid 37 Zagreb 06 Manchester 13 Rotterdam, The Hague 20 Marseille Decentralised 07 Edinburgh and Utrecht 30 Barcelona Russia Decentralised 38 Moscow CBD Belgium 14 Brussels CBD Turkey 39 Istanbul 4 European Real SnapShot! Market Cycle Retail High Street Expansion Oversupply 26/27 09 28 11 13 17 04 26 05 14 08 02 10 06 21 34 20 07 18 29 01 15 03 19 30 12 33 23 31 22 27 32 16 Recovery Contraction Rents Rents increasing decreasing Source: KPMG Qualitative Market Assessment Germany Nordic Region Luxembourg Switzerland Italy CEE 01 Berlin 07 Stockholm 14 Grand-Rue/Rue Philippe II 18 Zurich 22 Rome 26 Prague 02 Munich 08 Copenhagen 19 Geneva 23 Milan 27 Budapest 03 Frankfurt 09 Oslo France 20 Basel 28 Warsaw 10 Helsinki 15 Paris Spain 29 Bucharest UK 16 Lyon Austria 24 Madrid 30 Belgrade 04 London City The Netherlands 17 Marseille 21 Vienna 25 Barcelona 31 Bratislava 05 London West End 11 Amsterdam 32 Zagreb 06 Edinburgh 12 Rotterdam, The Hague and Utrecht Russia 33 Moscow Belgium 13 Brussel Turkey 34 Istanbul European Real SnapShot! 5 Germany Yield Macroeconomic Overview The economy in Germany has been characterised by steady growth over the last two years. After an increase of 1.6% in 2014, German Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 1.7% in 2015. This growth was mainly driven by private and compression government consumption, which increased by 1.9% and 2.8% respectively in 2015. The German Institute for Economic Research (IDW) forecasts continued moderate but steady growth of approximately 1.7% for 2016. continues However, Brexit could result in a fall in export trade. Germany is a leading exporter; the reduction of growth in exports may lead to a reduction in GDP growth of about 0.1 percentage points in 2016 and 0.5 percentage points in 2017. However, this adjusted forecast takes account only of the direct impact of exports to Great Britain. It is almost impossible to judge indirect effects, such as a decrease in direct investment or impacts on prices. Furthermore, weaker global economic growth, characterised by, amongst other things, a recession in Russia and Brazil and slower growth in China, may also affect German exports, and therefore economic growth. Economic Indicators 10% 120 8% 115 6% 110 4% Inflation 2% 105 0% 100 -2% 95 -4% 90 GDP Growth & -6% -8% 85 Unemployment Rate -10% 80 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 GDP Growth Unemployment Rate Inflation (CPI) Source: Destatis, 2010 = 100 Germany’s real estate market has benefited from both domestic and international demand. In 2015, transaction volumes increased by approximately 40% to EUR56.3bn. Half of this was invested by German buyers and half by international purchasers. 6 European Real SnapShot! The first half of 2016 was characterised by a further Office Market reduction in prime yields Y-o-Y. With a reduction of 65bps to 3.8%, Berlin experienced the strongest yield compression, Trends in prime office sector rents varied across the top followed by Dusseldorf, which saw a reduction of 50bps to five locations – Berlin, Dusseldorf, Frankfurt, Hamburg and 4.1%. In the other top 5 locations, prime yields fell by 20bps Munich – during H1 2016. Whilst rents in Dusseldorf to 4.2% in Frankfurt, 35bps to 3.8% in Hamburg and to increased slightly, by 1.2% to EUR26.30/sq.
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