What does a railroad have to do with the future of the automobile? June 28, 2018 Michael J. Shiffer, Ph.D. Vice President, Planning MTA Metro-North Railroad [email protected] What does a railroad have to do with the future of the automobile? ¤ In this region, the future of the automobile is intrinsically tied to the future of the mass transit system. ¤ This is due to the agglomeration economy of Manhattan and its continuing dependence on the extraordinary carrying capacity of the rail network. ¤ Travel patterns continue to evolve. ¤ Access to the rail network is key. The Regional Rail Context 3 Metro-North Railroad • 123 Stations • 756 Active Miles of Track • 711Daily Revenue Trains • 294,000 Trips per day ¤ Total East of Hudson ridership has increased by 57% from 53.8 million in 1987 to 84.9 million in 2017, an increase of over 31 million annual rides. ¤ 87% of AM commuters to Manhattan from Metro-North service territory ride Metro-North Railroad ¤ 2/3rds of the growth over the past 10 years has been on the “inner” portions of our lines. Notable Generational Dynamics ¤The Millennials (born after 1980) • About 22% of regional population • Growing the labor force • Desire to live in urban settings • Less interest or financial ability in owning a car • A tech-savvy “24 hour” lifestyle • Are they really revolutionary or will they follow traditional migration patterns? • City v. Suburbs • “Most buyers want to be within walking distance of trains and villages” ¤The Boomers (born 1946-1964) • 26% of regional population • Leaving the labor force? • Opting to “retire in place” ... • Financial resources to relocate to urban areas for mobility/lifestyle • Growing transit dependence • More off-peak travel Growth in Industries less tied to“9 To 5” Manufacturing Information Trade Wholesale Admini strative S upport Fi nance andInsurance Management estate Real Co n st r u c t io n Tran sportation Services Professional Retail Health Care Arts & R ecreati on Education Hospi ty tali 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60% Manhattan NY C Lo n g Isl an d Mid-Hudson and south CT MTA Service Area Changes in Sub-regional Employment by Industry 2005-2014 Source: US Census County Business Patterns 7 Changes to the Structure of Work ¤ Growth of Contingent employees ¤ The Gig Economy ¤ “Un-retirement” ¤ Co-working sites ¤ Working “in the cloud” 8 Work Trips No Longer Core Centric Now dispersed region-wide Brooklyn White Plains Midtown Manhattan Stamford New Rochelle 9 • Since the early to mid-1990’s, the fastest growth has occurred in Non-Commutation and Intermediate markets. • Examples of markets which have experienced significant ridership growth: o Bronx-Lower Westchester (e.g., Fordham to White Plains) o Lower Westchester-Connecticut (e.g., Mount Vernon East to Greenwich/Stamford) • Commutation ridership to/from Manhattan now constitutes less than half of total MNR rail ridership (i.e., 48% in 2017 compared to 67% in 1984). Reverse Commuters-Existing Market from The Bronx and NYC Suburban Job Centers Origin of Workers White Plains, NY Stamford, CT Greenwich, CT New Rochelle, NY Bronx 5,279 660 725 2,875 Other NYC Boroughs** 3,065 2,926 2,134 1,161 Total from NYC 8,344 3,586 2,859 4,036 Total Workers 55,800 77,700 35,600 25,200 Percent from Bronx 9.5% 0.8% 2.0% 11.4% Percent from Other NYC Boroughs** 5.5% 3.8% 6.0% 4.6% % from NYC 15.0% 4.6% 8.0% 16.0% ** Staten Island excluded Source: American Community Survey, 2009-2013 Journey to Work Flow and Mode Data by County and Minor Civil Division. 12 Car Ownership by County in Metro-North Territory (Non-NYC) 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 No Vehicle 1 Ve hic le 2 Ve hic le s 60,000 3 Ve hic le s 4+ V ehi cl es 40,000 20,000 - Westch ester Co unty, New Pu tn am Co un ty, Ne w Yo rk Dutchess County, New Ro ckl and Co unt y, N ew Orange County, New York Yo rk Yo rk Yo rk Car Ownership by County in Metro- North Territory 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 No Vehicle 1 Ve hic le 300,000 2 Ve hic le s 200,000 3 Ve hic le s 4+ V ehi cl es 100,000 - New York County, Br on x Cou nt y, Westch ester Pu tn am Co un ty, Dutchess County,Ro ckl and Co unt y, Orange County, New York New York County, New York New York New York New York New York Transportation Network Companies (TNCs) TNC Study Findings ¤ According to a TCRP Research Report: ¤ Transportation Network Company (TNC) trips occur across all income levels, but TNC users tend to be higher income, more educated, younger and live in denser areas ¤ Most TNC trips are less than 3 miles, and are occasional trips that fill transportation gaps ¤ Most TNC trips are in the evenings and weekends ¤ Users who replaced transit with TNC trips did so due to concerns about travel and waiting time, and most took TNCs to connect to transit ¤ According to a University of California Davis study: ¤ The top reason to use ride-hailing apps (37%) was to avoid the hassle of parking ¤ Among TNC users, there was a 3% increase in commuter rail ridership and a 9% increase in walking, however there was a 6% decrease in bus ridership TNC Pilot Programs ¤ Nationwide, pilot programs have been established to use TNC’s to tackle various transit access needs: ¤ Reduce the demand on station parking with subsidized first/last mile rides (Summit, NJ) ¤ Improve first/last mile trips to stations (Chicago) ¤ Replace under-utilized fixed route bus service and provide service for late night workers when no public transit is available (Tampa) ¤ Reduce congestion to transit stations (LA & Austin) Regional Dynamics ¤ Generational Travel Habits ¤ Shift away from 9-5 ¤ Multi-centric Travel ¤ Reverse Commute ¤ Ride-hailing changes What does this mean for railroads? Operations Planning & Analysis ¤ Develop Train Schedules to Support: • Improved On-Time Performance and Reliability • Capital Construction and Routine Maintenance Track Outages • Efficient Use of Equipment and Crew Resources • Service Plan Development with Long Range Planning Long-Range Planning Penn Station Access Penn Station Access Capital Planning & Programming 2015-2019 Capital Program $2.5B Capital Planning & Programming Park AvenuePark Avenue Viaduct Viaduct 23 CapitalGrand Planning Central & Programming Terminal Grand Central Train Shed Lower Level Upper Level CapitalStations Planning Initiative & Programming Stations Initiative ¤ $140M improvements to five Metro-North stations ¤ World class standards through design innovation and excellence ¤ Primary interventions include: Comfortable Station Environment Clear Wayfinding / Information Urban Connectivity Family of Integrated Furniture Technology CapitalCrestwood Planning & Programming StationsStations Initiative Initiative -Crestwood – Kiss and Ride CapitalCrestwood Planning & Programming StationsStations Initiative Initiative -Crestwood – Improved Overpass Capital Planning & Programming StationsWhite Initiative Plains -White Stations Plains Initiative Enhancing Station Access ¤ Connecting Services ¤ Rental/Shared Auto Trips ¤ Parking ¤ Bike & Pedestrian Access ¤ Transit-Oriented Development Benefits of TOD to Metro-North ¤ Expands housing and economic development opportunities ¤ Encourages transit use which: ¤ Preserves the regions natural and land resources ¤ Reduces transportation-generated greenhouse gas emissions ¤ Increases ridership Waterfront development at Yonkers Station ¤ Addresses first/last mile issues- cost avoidance ¤ Live/Work/Play model reinforces transit as preferred mode, strengthening transit network. TOD and MTA Metro-North ¤ Metro-North supports TOD: ¤ When community has achieved consensus and political willingness ¤ Partner with communities where Metro- North owns land near a station ¤ Support communities interested in TOD where Metro-North does not own property Rendering of AvalonBay’s proposed redevelopment of the Harrison Station customer parking facility ¤ TOD success requires three-way “win”: ¤ MTA/Metro-North ¤ Community ¤ Developer Poughkeepsie Regional Approach to Parking ¤ Planned Parking – North White Plains Station Parking Garage ¤ Opportunity Based Parking – Croton Falls Station ¤ Shared Parking – Harrison TOD Access & User-Friendly Station Parking ¤ Intermodal areas for transit connectivity ¤ Taxi and drop-off and pick-up areas ¤ Rental car and carshare availability ¤ Electric car charging stations ¤ Bicycle racks and lockers ¤ Web based electronic meters and permits ¤ Meter parking use options to better manage limited parking resources ¤ Pay by phone We will continue to serve a dynamic region through: ¤ Improved Customer Service ¤ Strengthening Infrastructure ¤ Capacity Expansion ¤ Station Access Improvements ¤ Supportive Partnerships With The Communities We Serve Thank you. Michael J. Shiffer, Ph.D. Vice President, Planning MTA Metro-North Railroad [email protected].