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FISH to 2030: PROSPECTS for FISHERIES and AQUACULTURE CONTENTS V AGRICULTURE AND ENVIRONMENTAL SERVICES DISCUSSION PAPER 03 FISH TO 2030 Public Disclosure Authorized Prospects for Fisheries and Aquaculture WORLD BANK REPORT NUMBER 83177-GLB Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized DECEMBER 2013 AGRICULTURE AND ENVIRONMENTAL SERVICES DISCUSSION PAPER 03 FISH TO 2030 Prospects for Fisheries and Aquaculture WORLD BANK REPORT NUMBER 83177-GLB © 2013 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / International Development Association or The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The fi ndings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily refl ect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given. Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to the Offi ce of the Publisher, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2422; e-mail: [email protected]. Cover Photos: Shutterstock, LLC. CONTENTS iii CONTENTS Foreword . vii Acknowledgments. ix Acronyms and Abbreviations . xi Executive Summary . .xiii Chapter 1: Introduction . .1 1.1. Motivations and Objective. .1 1.2. Lessons from Fish to 2020 . .4 1.3. Strategy of Improving Modeling Framework in Fish to 2030 . .7 1.4. Policy Research Questions . .8 Chapter 2: Preparing IMPACT Model for Fish to 2030. 11 2.1. Basics of IMPACT Model. 11 2.2. IMPACT Model Structure . 13 2.3. Data Used and Parameter Specifi cation . 16 2.4. Establishing a Consistent Base-Year Picture . 21 2.5. Assessing the Quality of Projections . 24 2.6. Issues and Discussions . 31 Technical Appendix . 33 Chapter 3: IMPACT Projections to 2030 under the Baseline Specifi cation . 39 3.1. Production . 39 3.2. Consumption . 44 3.3. Trade and Prices . 46 3.4. Fishmeal and Fish Oil . 47 Technical Appendix . 50 Chapter 4: IMPACT Projections to 2030 under Selected Scenarios. 55 4.1. Scenario 1: Faster Aquaculture Growth . 55 4.2. Scenario 2: Expanded Use of Fish Processing Waste in Fishmeal and Fish Oil Production. 57 AGRICULTURE AND ENVIRONMENTAL SERVICES DEPARTMENT DISCUSSION PAPER iv CONTENTS 4.3. Scenario 3: A Major Disease Outbreak in Shrimp Aquaculture in Asia . 60 4.4. Scenario 4: Accelerated Shift of Consumer Preferences in China . 63 4.5. Scenario 5: Improvement of Capture Fisheries Productivity . 66 4.6. Scenario 6: Impacts of Climate Change on the Productivity of Capture Fisheries . 68 Chapter 5: Discussion. 71 5.1. Main Findings from the Analysis . 71 5.2. Discussion and Possible Future Directions . 72 References . 77 FIGURES Figure 1.1: Comparison of Fish to 2020 Projections and FAO Data for Global Food Fish Supply . .4 Figure 1.2: Evolution of World Food Fish Production, 1984–2009. .5 Figure 1.3: Average Annual Growth Rates of Capture and Aquaculture Production, 1960–2009 . .5 Figure 1.4: Trends of Real Prices of Selected Seafood . .6 Figure 1.5: Global Fishmeal Use . .7 Figure 2.1: Defi nition of Aggregate Regions for Results Reporting . 13 Figure 2.2: Schematic of Links of Fish with Fishmeal and Fish Oil in the IMPACT Model. 16 Figure 2.3: Key Data Relationships Used to Balance Fish Data in IMPACT . 22 Figure 2.4: Computational Steps and Sequence of the Model . 24 Figure 2.5: Comparison of Projections and Data for Global Fish Production, 2000–08. 25 Figure 2.6: Comparison of Projections and Data for Global Fish Utilization, 2000–06 . 25 Figure 2.7: Comparison of Projections and Data for Global Fishmeal Production, 2000–08 . 25 Figure 2.8: Comparison of Projections and Data for Regional Capture Fisheries Production, 2008 . 26 Figure 2.9: Comparison of Projections and Data for Capture Fisheries Production by Species, 2008. 26 Figure 2.10: Comparison of Projections and Data for Regional Aquaculture Production, 2008 . 26 Figure 2.11: Comparison of Projections and Data for Aquaculture Production by Species, 2008 . 27 Figure 2.12: Comparison of Projections and Data for Regional Per Capita Food Fish Consumption, 2006 . 27 Figure 2.13: Comparison of Projections and Data for Regional Total Food Fish Consumption, 2006 . 27 Figure 2.14: Comparison of Regional Projections and Data for Net Fish Export, 2006 . 28 Figure 2.15: Comparison of Projections and Data for World Fish Prices, 2000–08. 28 Figure 2.16: Comparison of Projections and Data for World Prices of Fishmeal, 1984–2011 . 29 Figure 2.17: Comparison of Projections and Data for World Prices of Fish Oil, 1984–2011 . 29 Figure 3.1: Global Fish Production: Data and Projections, 1984–2030 . 39 FISH TO 2030: PROSPECTS FOR FISHERIES AND AQUACULTURE CONTENTS v Figure 3.2: Volume and Share of Capture and Aquaculture Production in Global Harvest . 39 Figure 3.3: Average Annual Growth Rates of Capture and Aquaculture Production, 1960–2029 . 40 Figure 3.4: Projected Global Fish Supply by Species . 42 Figure 3.5: Projected Global Aquaculture Fish Supply by Species. 42 Figure 3.6: Projected Change in Real Prices between 2010 and 2030 by Commodities . 47 Figure 3.7: Projected Production and Fishmeal Use in Global Fed Aquaculture . 49 Figure 3.8: Projected Average Feed Conversion Ratio for Fishmeal in Global Fed Aquaculture . 50 Figure 3.9: Comparison of IMPACT and OECD-FAO Projections for Global Fish Supply . 51 Figure 3.10: Comparison of IMPACT and OECD-FAO Projections for Global Aquaculture Production . 51 Figure 3.11: Comparison of IMPACT and OECD-FAO Projections for Global Food Fish Consumption . 52 Figure 3.12: Comparison of IMPACT and OECD-FAO Projections for Global Fishmeal Supply . 52 Figure 3.13: Comparison of IMPACT and OECD-FAO Projections for Implied FCR for Fishmeal . 53 Figure 4.1: Projected Increase in Fishmeal Production due to Usage of Whole Fish and Fish Processing Waste in 2030 . ..
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