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TEMIDAYO JAMES ARANSIOLA Four Empirical Essays About Crime And

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TEMIDAYO JAMES ARANSIOLA Four Empirical Essays About Crime And UNIVERSIDADE ESTADUAL DE CAMPINAS INSTITUTO DE ECONOMIA TEMIDAYO JAMES ARANSIOLA Four empirical essays about crime and violence in an economic and interdisciplinary approach Quatro ensaios empíricos sobre crime e violência em uma abordagem econômica e interdisciplinar Campinas 2021 UNIVERSIDADE ESTADUAL DE CAMPINAS INSTITUTO DE ECONOMIA TEMIDAYO JAMES ARANSIOLA Four empirical essays about crime and violence in an economic and interdisciplinary approach Quatro ensaios empíricos sobre crime e violência em uma abordagem econômica e interdisciplinar Prof. Dr. Marcelo Justus dos Santos – orientador Prof.ª Dr.ª Vânia Aparecida Ceccato – coorientadora Tese de Doutorado apresentada ao Programa de Pós-Graduação em Ciências Econômicas do Instituto de Economia da Universidade Estadual de Campinas para obtenção do título de Doutor em Ciências Econômicas, área de Teoria Econômica. ESTE EXEMPLAR CORRESPONDE À VERSÃO FINAL DA TESE DEFENDIDA PELO ALUNO TEMIDAYO JAMES ARANSIOLA, ORIENTADA PELO PROF. DR. MARCELO JUSTUS DOS SANTOS E COORIENTADA PELA PROFª DRª VÂNIA APARECIDA CECCATO. Campinas 2021 Ficha catalográfica Universidade Estadual de Campinas Biblioteca do Instituto de Economia Luana Araujo de Lima - CRB 8/9706 Aransiola, Temidayo James, 1991- Ar14e Empirical essays on crime and violence in an economic and interdisciplinary approach / Temidayo James Aransiola. – Campinas, SP : [s.n.], 2021. Orientador: Marcelo Justus dos Santos. Coorientador: Vânia Aparecida Ceccato. Tese (doutorado) – Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Economia. 1. Crime. 2. Violência. 3. Economia. I. Santos, Marcelo Justus do, 1977-. II. Ceccato, Vânia Aparecida. III. Universidade Estadual de Campinas. Instituto de Economia. IV. Título. Informações para Biblioteca Digital Título em outro idioma: Ensaios empíricos sobre crime e violência em uma abordagem econômica e interdisciplinar Palavras-chave em inglês: Crime Violence Economics Área de concentração: Teoria Econômica Titulação: Doutor em Ciências Econômicas Banca examinadora: Marcelo Justus dos Santos [Orientador] Alexandre Gori Maia Thomas Victor Conti Daniel Ricardo de Castro Cerqueira Augusta Pelinski Raiher Data de defesa: 29-01-2021 Programa de Pós-Graduação: Ciências Econômicas Identificação e informações acadêmicas do(a) aluno(a) - ORCID do autor: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5578-0065 - Currículo Lattes do autor: http://lattes.cnpq.br/9071602758122013 UNIVERSIDADE ESTADUAL DE CAMPINAS INSTITUTO DE ECONOMIA TEMIDAYO JAMES ARANSIOLA Four empirical essays about crime and violence in an economic and interdisciplinary approach Quatro ensaios empíricos sobre crime e violência em uma abordagem econômica e interdisciplinar Prof. Dr. Marcelo Justus dos Santos – orientador Prof.ª Dr.ª Vânia Aparecida Ceccato – coorientadora Defendida em 29/01/2021 COMISSÃO JULGADORA Prof. Dr. Marcelo Justus dos Santos – PRESIDENTE Universidade Estadual de Campinas (IE/UNICAMP) Prof. Dr. Alexandre Gori Maia Universidade Estadual de Campinas (IE/UNICAMP) Prof.ª Dr.ª Augusta Pelinski Raiher Universidade Estadual de Ponta Grossa (UEPG) Prof. Dr. Daniel Ricardo de Castro Cerqueira Universidade Federal do Triângulo Mineiro (UFTM) Prof. Dr. Thomas Victor Conti Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa (INSPER) A Ata de Defesa, assinada pelos membros da Comissão Examinadora, consta no processo de vida acadêmica do aluno. ACKNOWLEDGEMENT I give thanks to God for life, the blessing, wisdom, knowledge, creative mind, and physical and mental health without which this research would not have been possible. I also thank God for guiding me to the right people, places, and institutions that provided the opportunity and conditions necessary for the development of this research. Regarding people, first I express my deepest gratitude to my Supervisor, Professor Dr. Marcelo Justus who has lavished me with academic and personal counsels, guidance, and support from my undergraduate studies to my doctoral degree. He has been the mentor of my academic career. I am also profoundly grateful to my co-supervisor, Prof. Dr. Vania Aparecida Ceccato, who warmly received me during my doctoral exchange program at the KTH Royal Institute of Technology in Stockholm. Her teachings and guidance have been so enlightening and motivating to my academic career. I also thank all the Professors that, directly or indirectly, passed unto me the knowledge that guided me through my doctoral studies. Still on people, I thank every member of my direct family for the emotional and moral support that they have always made abundant throughout my academic career. They have been the pillar of the emotional and mental strength that guided my academic career thus far. I also acknowledge the important friendships (too many to mention) from many parts of the world (especially, Nigeria, Sweden, Brazil, Germany, and the United States) that have been present (physically or not), supportive, and comprehensive whenever I could not give enough attention or had to turn down invitations due to academic duties. Regarding Institutions, first I deeply thank the São Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP) for financially sponsoring my Ph.D. research with a fully-funded scholarship (grant number 2016/23475-2) and fully-funded research abroad (grant number 2018/14236-0). Without the FAPESP scholarship, my masters and doctoral degrees and my academic researches would have been even more challenging. I also thank the University of Campinas (Unicamp) and the KTH Royal Institute of Technology for the excellent academic infrastructure and opportunities during my studies. ABSTRACT The main objective of this study is to provide specific discussions concerning the determinants of crime and violence in four empirical essays from an economic and multidisciplinary approach. The first essay investigates the space-temporal growth of homicide rates in Brazil by providing empirical evidence of a convergence process and identifying predictors of the country’s geography of homicides growth. The second investigates the effect of absolute deprivation (proxy unemployment) and relative deprivation (proxy income inequality) on homicide levels in Brazil. The data for these first two essays were obtained from the Brazilian Information System about Mortality and Census, but the empirical strategy for both differ – spatial autoregression model for the first and negative binomial model for the second. The third essay empirically tests four competing hypotheses of the causes of cargo theft – the space-time dynamics hypothesis, the economic attractiveness hypothesis, the social structure hypothesis, and the deterrence hypothesis – focusing on the São Paulo case. The Autoregressive-Distributed Lag model was estimated to test these hypotheses. The fourth essay investigates the effect of economic conditions on lethal crimes by testing the hypotheses that the relationship between GDP and homicide rates is non-linear and influenced by levels of income inequality. This last essay used data panel data of the OECD member countries to estimate GMM models for testing these hypotheses. As to results, the first paper confirms that the convergence of lethal violence exists in Brazil and is happening faster due to the increasing growth observed in the North and Northeast regions of the country. The second essay found that unemployment and income inequality increase lethal crimes and their effects are intertwined in that the effect of one exacerbates that of the other. The third essay found that the number of cargo thefts of a geographic area can be predicted by itself and that of neighboring areas. The result for economic attractiveness and social structure is inconclusive but police activity reduces cargo theft. The fourth essay found a non-linear relationship between GDP and homicide rates. Besides having a predominant effect on homicide rates, income inequality conditions the effect of GDP on homicide rates. Keywords: Crime. Violence. Causes. Economics. RESUMO O principal objetivo deste estudo é apresentar discussões específicas sobre os determinantes de crime e violência em quatro ensaios a partir de uma abordagem econômica e multidisciplinar. O primeiro ensaio investiga o crescimento espacio-temporal da taxa de homicídios no Brasil, fornecendo evidências empíricas do processo de convergência e identificando preditores da geografia do crescimento de homicídios do país. O segundo ensaio investiga o efeito de privação/pobreza absoluta (proxy desemprego) e privação/pobreza relativa (proxy desigualdade de renda) sobre níveis de homicídio no Brasil. Os dados para os primeiros dois artigos foram obtidos do Sistema de Informações sobre Mortalidade e censos, mas a estratégia empírica de ambos varia – modelo autorregressivo especial para o primeiro e modelo binomial negative para o segundo. O terceiro artigo testa quatro hipóteses sobre as causas de roubo de carga – da dinâmica espacio-temporal, da atratividade econômica, da estrutura social, e da dissuasão – focando no caso de São Paulo. Modelos Autorregressivos de Defasagens Distribuídas foram estimadas para testar essas hipóteses. O quarto ensaio investiga o efeito de condições econômicas em crimes letais, testando a hipótese da não-linearidade da relação entre o PIB e taxa de homicídio, e que essa relação é condicionada ao nível de desigualdade. Essas hipóteses foram testadas usando painel de dados de países membros da OECD para estimar modelos de painel dinâmico (GMM). Quanto a resultados, o primeiro ensaio confirma a existência de convergência de violência letal no Brasil, e esse processo
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