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Independent Research, Indispensable Results A Transformative Shift Towards Electric Vehicles and Autonomy PRESENTERS: GARRETT NELSON & ANGELO ZINO DECEMBER 17, 2019 Independent Research, Indispensable Results PAGE 1 Agenda • About CFRA • Electric Vehicle Outlook • Autonomous Vehicle Outlook • Semiconductor Automotive Outlook • Questions Independent Research, Indispensable Results PAGE 2 Our History More than 90 years of innovation and growth as an independent research firm. CFRA Legal CFRA MSCI CFRA CFRA CFRA Founded Edge Sold Acquired Acquired Acquired Is one of the world’s Launched To Risk Risk from MSCI First Bridge largest Independent Metrics Metrics Data research firms 09’ 11’ 201 2016 1927 1994 2006 2007 2009 2010 2013 2016 2019 Today S&P S&P Equity and Fund Research Global equity coverage begins Acquired by CFRA Independent Research, Indispensable Results PAGE 3 Proprietary Methodology Engine CFRA blends fundamental equity with forensic accounting • Weekly market commentary, sector insights and portfolio guidance • Robust analysis covering 11 sectors and 68 industries • Unique holdings-based analysis covering 1,800+ ETFs and mutual funds • Qualitative research of 1,500 global companies; quantitative coverage of 25,000+ global companies • Diagnostic industry and company monitoring for risk assessment • Investigative insights utilizing forensic accounting, legal and exception-based insights Independent Research, Indispensable Results PAGE 4 Independence Research is all we do. CFRA does NOT manage money or make trades Many independent investment research providers claim to be free of conflicts but are NOT Independent Research, Indispensable Results PAGE 5 Electric Vehicle Outlook Garrett Nelson, Senior Equity Analyst Independent Research, Indispensable Results PAGE 6 Electric Vehicles Independent Research, Indispensable Results PAGE 7 Sources: CFRA, Pxhere.com. A History of Electric Vehicles (EVs) • Late 1820’s / Early 1830’s – Anyos Jedlik (Hungary) Invents First Small Scale EV, Robert Anderson (Scotland) Develops First Crude EV • 1889 – William Morrison Creates First Successful EV in U.S. • 1900 – EVs Account For Roughly 33% of All Vehicles on the Road in U.S. • 1901 – Ferdinand Porsche Invents First Electric Hybrid Car • 1908 – Ford Introduces the Gas-Powered, Mass Market Model T • 1913 – Ford Introduces First Conveyor Belt-Based Assembly Line, Significantly Reducing Costs • 1910’s / 1920’s – Discovery of Cheap Texas Crude Oil Makes EVs Nearly Obsolete By 1935 • 1970’s – Clean Air Act is Passed, Oil Prices Soar, Reviving Interest In Alternative Fuel Vehicles Independent Research, Indispensable Results PAGE 8 Sources: CFRA, U.S. Department of Energy. A History of Electric Vehicles (EVs) • 1990’s – New Government Regulations Renew Interest in EVs • 1996 – GM Releases EV1 Which Quickly Gains A Cult Following But is Unprofitable • 1997 – Toyota Introduces The First Mass-Produced Hybrid (The Prius) • 2000’s – Oil Prices Soar, Again Reviving Interest In Alternative Fuel Vehicles • 2003 – Silicon Valley Startup Tesla Motors Founded With Goal of Producing EVs • 2008 – Tesla Introduces Roadster EV • 2010 – Nissan Releases First EV (Nissan Leaf), GM Releases First Plug-In Hybrid (Chevy Bolt) • 2010’s – Battery Costs Drop By 50% Due to Innovation and Investments By DOE Independent Research, Indispensable Results PAGE 9 Sources: CFRA, U.S. Department of Energy. Global EV Sales Being Driven by Battery EVs Global EV Sales Volume Global EV Stock (units in thousands) (units in thousands) 2,500 6,000 1,975 2,000 5,000 4,000 1,500 1,174 3,000 1,000 752 2,000 546 500 1,000 119 8 0 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Battery Electric Vehicles Plug-In Hybrids Battery Electric Vehicles Plug-In Hybrids • In 2018, global EV sales totaled 1.98M units (1.35M BEV and 630K PHEV), a 68% yr/yr jump, which increased total global EV stock to 5.12M units – 78% growth for BEVs (Tesla Model 3 introduced in late 2017) and 50% for PHEVs Independent Research, Indispensable Results PAGE 10 Sources: CFRA, EVAdoption.com. Consumer Reports Survey Results • 36% of Prospective Car Buyers said they Would Consider Buying (31%) or Would Definitely Buy (5%) a Plug-in EV within the next two years • Interest in owning an EV is highest among consumers with an annual income of $100,000+ • $100,000 or more - 39% (Would Consider Buying 34%, 5% Would Definitely Buy) • $50,000-$100,000 - 38% (Would Consider Buying 33%, 5% Would Definitely Buy) • Less than $50,000 - 32% (Would Consider Buying 28%, 4% Would Definitely Buy) • Top factors that would make an EV purchase more likely: • Lower purchase price - 59% • Longer driving range - 51% • Lower operating costs - 39% • Shorter charging time - 36% • 75% said that incentives and tax rebates for EVs should be available to all buyers; 63% said their state should make it easier for consumers to purchase EVs Independent Research, Indispensable Results PAGE 11 Sources: Consumer Reports and Union of Concerned Scientists survey of 1,659 U.S. adults conducted between 4/8/18-4/19/19. Margin of error = 2.4% . EVs: What The Experts Are Saying • Former Fiat Chrysler Chairman & CEO Sergio Marchionne – “I hope you don’t buy it (the Fiat 500e) because every time I sell one it costs me $14,000.” -May 21, 2014 – “I don’t know of a company that is making money selling electric vehicles unless you are selling them at the very, very high end of the spectrum.” -January 15, 2018 • Tesla CEO Elon Musk – “You have to match the convenience of the gasoline car in order for people to buy an electric car.” -June 28, 2017 • Ford Chairman Bill Ford Jr. – “Electrification is here to stay. History will show whether it was smart or not (to talk about plans) but it’s important to signal where we’re going.” -January 15, 2018 Independent Research, Indispensable Results PAGE 12 Expiring Tax Credits: Winners & Losers • Internal Revenue Code Section 30D provides a federal tax credit for Qualified Plug-in Electric Vehicles – EV purchases are eligible for a $7,500 federal tax credit until the manufacturer has sold a total of 200,000 eligible EVs on a cumulative basis for sales beginning January 1, 2010 • The credit begins to phase out over a 12-month period at the beginning of the second calendar quarter after the manufacturer has sold 200,000 vehicles, as announced by the IRS – The credit declines to 50% of the original amount ($3,750) over the first six months and to 25% of the original amount ($1,875) over the following six months • Companies which have sold 200,000 EVs and phase out period dates: – Tesla: January 1, 2019 – December 31, 2019 – General Motors: April 1, 2019 – March 31, 2020 • Other automakers’ cumulative EV sales in U.S. (through 6/30/19): – Nissan: 135,550 Ford: 116,926 Toyota: 104,375 BMW: 93,696 Independent Research, Indispensable Results PAGE 13 Sources: CFRA, IRS.gov, EVAdoption.com. The Long List of Failed EV Start-Ups • Fisker • AMP • Coda • Aptera • Spyker Cars • Better Place • Detroit Electric • Li-ion Motors • Corbin • HumanCar • Bright Automotive • LeEco • Key Takeaway: The global auto industry is a highly competitive, cyclical, high fixed-cost, and low-margin industry. The failure rate for new entrants is high. Independent Research, Indispensable Results PAGE 14 Source: CFRA. …And Discontinued Models Discontinue BEV/ Manufacturer Brand Model Date PHEV Type General Motors Chevy Volt 2019 PHEV Hatchback Volkswagen Audi A3 Sportback e-tron 2019 PHEV Sedan General Motors Cadillac CT6 2019 PHEV Sedan Ford Ford Focus Electric 2019 BEV Hatchback Ford Ford C-Max 2018 PHEV Hatchback General Motors Cadillac ELR 2017 PHEV Coupe Daimler Mercedes-Benz B250e 2017 BEV Hatchback Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Mitsubishi iMiEV 2017 BEV Subcompact General Motors Chevy Spark 2016 BEV Subcompact Toyota Toyota Prius PHV 2016 PHEV Hatchback Honda Honda Accord 2015 PHEV Sedan Honda Honda Fit 2014 BEV Subcompact Toyota Toyota RAV4 EV 2014 BEV SUV Coda Coda Coda 2013 BEV Sedan Fisker Fisker Karma 2012 PHEV Sports car Tesla Tesla Roadster 2012 BEV Sports car Toyota Toyota RAV4 EV 2003 BEV SUV Ford Ford Ranger 2002 BEV Pickup General Motors General Motors EV1 1999 BEV Coupe General Motors Chevy S-10 Electric 1998 BEV Pickup Note: BEV = Battery Electric Vehicle, PHEV = Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle Independent Research, Indispensable Results PAGE 15 Sources: CFRA, EVAdoption.com. 25 New EV Models To Debut in U.S. in 2020 Availability Model BEV/ Range Estimated Manufacturer Brand Model Date Year PHEV Type (miles) MSRP Aston Martin Aston Martin RapidE 2020 2020 BEV Sedan 200+ $250,000 BMW BMW iX3 2020 2021 BEV SUV 210 $50,000 BMW BMW X5 2020 2021 PHEV SUV 40 $62,000 BMW Mini Cooper S E 2020 2020 BEV Hatchback 114 $37,500 Bollinger Bollinger B1 2020 2020 BEV Pickup/Worktruck 200 $60,000 Daimler Mercedes-Benz EQC 2020 2020 BEV SUV 225 $75,000 Fiat Chrysler Jeep Renegade PHEV 2020 2020 PHEV SUV 25 $28,000 Fiat Chrysler Jeep Wrangler PHEV 2020 2021 PHEV SUV 25 $35,000 Fiat Chrysler Maserati Levante 2020 2021 PHEV SUV 25 $90,000 Ford Ford TBD 2020 2021 BEV SUV 300 $45,000-$48,000 Ford Ford Escape 2020 2020 PHEV SUV 30 $35,000 Geely Volvo XC40 2020 2021 BEV SUV 222 $58,000 Geely Polestar Polestar 1 2020 2020 PHEV Sport coupe 65 $155,000 Geely Polestar Polestar 2 2020 2021 BEV Sedan 275 $63,000 Hyundai Kia Soul 2020 2020 BEV CUV 243 $36,000 Hyundai Kia Stonic 2020 2020 BEV SUV 190 $26,000 Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Mitsubishi Outlander 2020 2020 PHEV SUV 38 $36,000 Rivian Rivian R1T 2020 2021 BEV Pickup 230-400 $70,000-$100,000 Tesla Tesla Model Y 2020 2020 BEV CUV 300 $48,000 Toyota Toyota RAV4 2020 2020 PHEV SUV 30 $32,000 Volkswagen Audi Sportback e-tron 2020 2020 BEV Sport coupe 275 $90,000 Volkswagen Audi e-tron GT 2020 2020 BEV Sedan 248 $90,000 Volkswagen Bentley Bentayga Hybrid 2020 2020 PHEV SUV 31 $190,000 Volkswagen Porsche Taycan 2020 2020 BEV Sports car 250 $80,000 Volkswagen Volkswagen I.D.
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