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DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORT NATIONALNATIONAL TRANSPORTTRANSPORT MASTERMASTER PLANPLAN 20502050 Presentation to Portfolio Committee on Transport: 4 May 2010 NATMAPNATMAP –– TransportTransport forfor 20502050 Table of Contents 1. Introduction – what is NATMAP? 2. Vision 2050 3. Transport – status quo 4. South Africa – future scenarios 5. Transport operations • Passenger operations • Freight operations 6. Infrastructure 7. Key financial, legal and institutional actions 8. Critical projects 9. Actions required from Portfolio Committee 1. Introduction – what is NATMAP? NATMAP 2050 Project goal • National Transport Master Plan (NATMAP) 2050 “…to develop a dynamic, long term, sustainable land use / multi-modal transportation systems framework for the development of networks infrastructure facilities, interchange termini facilities and service delivery” • NATMAP to be: – Demand responsive to • Socio-economic growth strategies, or • Any sectoral integrated spatial development plan – An action agenda for the whole country until 2050 Project approach 2050 PhasePhase 3: 3: Forward Forward Planning Planning ••DemandDemand projection projection 9 Road 2005 9 Road Phase 2: Analysis 99RailRail Phase 2: Analysis •Future Model 99AirAir •Future Model 9Land-use 99PortPort 9Land-use 9Economic Activity ••EvaluateEvaluate alternatives alternatives 9Economic Activity 99PopulationPopulation 9Infrastructure capacity PhasePhase 1: 1: Status Status Quo Quo 9Infrastructure capacity Phase 1: Status Quo •Analyse issues & problems •Transport•Transport Infrastructure Infrastructure •Analyse issues & problems 99RoadRoad 99RailRail 99AirAir 99PortPort •Land-use•Land-use PhasePhase 4: 4: Action Action Agenda Agenda •Economic•Economic activity activity ••Programmes,Programmes, projects, projects, costs costs •Population•Population ••PoliciesPolicies ••StructuresStructures DELIVERABLES •Round Table Ph1 •Round Table Ph3 •Round Table Ph4 •Round Table Ph2 •Report 1 •Report 3 •Report 4 •Report 2 2. Vision 2050 Vision 2050 “By 2050, transport in South Africa will meet the needs of freight and passenger customers for accessible, affordable, safe, frequent, high quality, reliable, efficient and seamless transport operations and infrastructure. “It will do so by continuously upgrading infrastructure and services ahead of demand, as well as in an innovative, flexible and economically and environmentally sustainable manner. “Transport will support and enable government strategies, particularly those for growth development, redistribution, employment creation and social integration, both in South Africa and in the Southern African Region.” Goals to support vision 1) To provide integrated land use and transport solutions 2) To promote economic development 3) To promote rural development giving priority to presidential nodes 4) To maximize the utilization of existing infrastructure facilities 5) To maximize the economic return on investment in transport 6) To promote integration of transport infrastructure and services 7) To minimize the impact on the environment and reduce the carbon-footprint of transport 8) To provide energy-efficient transport, using energy sources that are sustainable in the long term 9) To provide affordable transport to end users, operators and government Goals to support vision 10) To provide transport that is equitable to all stakeholders 11) To develop transport infrastructure that are meeting international standards and are technologically sustainable 3. Transport – status quo Road infrastructure • Road infrastructure condition – SANRAL network generally good to fair – Provincial paved roads generally fair to poor – Huge maintenance backlog in some areas, e.g. coal haulage area in Mpumalanga • Traffic usage – Growth of traffic outstripped extension of paved network – Significant amounts of heavy traffic on roads • Heavy vehicle overloading • Road safety issues, exacerbated by poor road condition, absence of clear road marking etc. Rail infrastructure • Rail infrastructure condition – Heavy haul lines well maintained, good condition – Rest of network in fair condition; some lines however not maintained • Rail network generally underutilised • Rolling stock is old • Rail gauge – SA use narrow gauge (outdated) • Institutional setup – PRASA providing passenger services – Transnet providing infrastructure and freight services Other infrastructure • ACSA airports – 10 airports (including the 3 major international airports) – Generally good condition and service – Some airports are (or will be in near future) approaching saturation, e.g. ORTIA and Cape Town • Ports & pipelines – Port throughput is approaching capacity in some cases – Poor road access to some ports (e.g. roads to Durban and Cape Town are severely congested) – Pipeline network at capacity; freight diverted to road. Busy with NMPP Some major challenges • Infrastructure – Lack of expenditure on road maintenance – Overloading on roads – Condition of rail infrastructure (non-heavy haul lines) – Rail infrastructure management systems are ineffectual (isolated systems, old or incomplete data) – Need to cater for growth in demand • Road – high traffic growth • Rail – underutilisation • Ports – high growth in containers (Durban), Some major challenges • Operations – Monopoly control of rail transport (distorts charges) – Unsatisfied demand for rail taken up by road (less efficient) – Technical regulation of freight transport – Standard of public transport is declining – Customers are dissatisfied 4. South Africa – future scenarios Demography and Economy • Study performed by Global Insight and BMR on behalf of NATMAP 2050 • 3 scenarios investigated – Demographic scenarios • High (centralised population, low HIV/Aids, higher international in-migration) • Medium (migration levels similar to current trends, HIV/Aids assumptions of greatest likelihood) • Low (decentralised population, high HIV/Aids) – Economic scenarios • Also High (positive), Medium and Low (negative) variants Demography and Economy • Major findings – Population will grow from 47 million (2005) to about 60 million people by 2050 • Significant migration to Gauteng and Western Cape, from other provinces • EAP to increase from 19 million (2005) to 26 million (2050) • Unemployment to decrease from 38% (2005) to 8.5% (2050) – GDP expected to grow between 5% and 6% per year Land use 1 Index: 2008 = 100 100 150 200 50 0 Well planned journey scenario gap between fuelsupply between fuelsupply gap journeyWell planned scenario Energy 2008 what itistoday. available fuelwillhave reducedtoabout50%of horizon isabout20years, atwhichpointthe and byhowmuch.All indicationsarethatthetime Oil scarcityisinevitable, theonlyquestioniswhen 2009 2010 2011 Liquid fuelLiquid supply 2012 2013 2014 and demand demand and 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 BAU demand BAU 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 4 Index: 2008 - 100 100 150 200 50 0 2008 & between fuelsupply gap road scenario Bumpy 2009 2010 2011 Liquid fuelLiquid supply 2012 2013 2014 2015 demand demand 2016 2017 2018 2019 BAU demand 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Energy TRANSPORT INTERVENTIONS Peak oil Road, rail and Mode specific Road based Move to new projections air based measures and measures only technologies measures mode shifts Well planned Entirely Not required Not required Not required journey sufficient Taking the Insufficient Barely sufficient Not required Not required back roads Riding the Insufficient Insufficient Sufficient Not required wave Entirely Bumpy road Insufficient Insufficient Insufficient sufficient 5. Transport operations Passenger transport: SPTN • Development of integrated, high quality public transport – Linking all cities and towns of national significance – Consists of integrated PT network of primary and secondary routes – Providing mobility and accessibility – Using optimal modal mix – mode appropriate to each link/corridor – Accessed via high-quality modal transfer facilities – It is only a framework for further refinement – Extension of IRPTN’s of 12 cities – Phased development over time Passenger transport: 2050 PT potential Passenger transport: appropriate mode Freight transport: selected strategies • Road freight – Operator registration – RTQS implementation • Loads (weighbridge network and enforcement strategy) • Vehicles (COR – roadside inspection) • Drivers (training and driver hours regulation) etc • Rail and port freight – Reorganisation (see FILM proposals) – Open market, industry involvement – Develop customised rolling stock – Skills training (technical, operational and managerial) – Develop intermodal interfaces and facilities Freight transport: rail demand Freight transport: road demand 6. Infrastructure Road infrastructure Road: selected recommendations • Road maintenance – Focus on strategic network (“roads of national importance”) – Elimination of backlog – about R50 billion – Periodic and routine maintenance – about R12 billion/year – (See proposals on funding) • Promote public transport investment – Regional passenger rail network (take pax off road) – Develop public transport services on SPTN (increase vehicle occupancy) • Priority bus or normal bus services – (See passenger operations proposals) Road: selected recommendations • Capacity upgrades – Add lanes when roads reach LOS E (reported per province) • New constructions / major upgrades – When feasible, in high economic centres (e.g. PWV routes in Gauteng) – In isolated cases, in line with land use directives (e.g. Makhado-Giyani-Phalaborwa-Mbombela-Richards Bay)