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Population Growth: What Do Australian Voters Want?

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Population Growth: What Do Australian Voters Want? POPULATION GROWTH: WHAT DO AUSTRALIAN VOTERS WANT? Katharine Betts Immigration-fuelled population growth has accelerated under the Rudd Government. Recent projections suggest that Australia may grow from its current 22 million to 35.9 million by 2050. This prospect has sparked a public debate about the country’s demographic future. If population growth were to become an election issue how would Australian voters respond? Relevant new data are available from the latest Australian Survey of Social Attitudes, a mailout questionnaire sent to a large random sample of voters. It was completed between December 2009 and February 2010. The results show that only 31 per cent want growth while 69 per cent want stability. This is an increase on the proportions who have been pro-stability in the past: 50 per cent in 1977 and the 65 per cent in 2001. THE ROLE OF IMMIGRATION IN These were based on assumptions POPULATION GROWTH shaped by current growth rates and said In December 1945 there were 7.4 million that Australia’s population could reach people in Australia.1 Since then, there has PLOOLRQE\)RUWKH¿UVWWLPHLQ been continual growth. Table 1 shows many years, critics and supporters began that, in the 26 years from December 1982 to engage in a lively population debate in to December 2008, the population grew WKHPHGLDDERXWWKHFRVWVDQGEHQH¿WVRI from 15.3 million to 21.6 million, an an- population growth. nual average growth rate of 1.3 per cent. The Australian Survey of Social Atti- In the latter years of the Howard Govern- tudes (AuSSA)3 was planned early in 2009 ment (2005 to 2007), numbers and rates EXWE\WKHWLPHLWZDVLQWKH¿HOGIURP increased sharply but, with the election of December 2009 to February 2010, many the Rudd Labor Government in Novem- citizens would not only have been feeling ber 2007, growth accelerated further. For the pressures of growth for some time, a example, in 2008–09 the population grew number would have become interested in by 2.1 per cent, adding 443,100 people, the debate. The demography of the period, an all-time record, with 64 per cent of the and the media’s reaction to it, therefore play growth due to net overseas migration.2 a role in shaping people’s attitudes to what Most voters would not be aware of otherwise might seem rather abstract ques- WKH¿JXUHVEXWDVWKH¿UVWGHFDGHRIWKH tions: is population growth something that new century wore on, congestion in the voters think Australia should be pursuing? major cities and escalating housing prices Do they want it? were symptoms of growth that few could Recent demography has not been miss. At the same time, drought and water shaped by immigration alone. Fertility rose restrictions brought home some of the from a total fertility rate of around 1.72 constraints imposed by the natural envi- in the early years of the decade to 1.97 in ronment. And informed critics, together 2008–094 and life expectancy at birth also with growth supporters, were mostly well increased. From 1988 to 2006–2008 males aware of the underlying demography. In added an extra 6.1 years and females 4.2 September 2009 the projections in the years.5 These trends, together with a rising Treasury’s Third Intergenerational Report base population, have lifted natural increase were announced. WRQXPEHUVQRWVHHQVLQFHWKH¿QDO\HDUV People and Place, vol. 18, no. 1, 2010, page 49 Table 1: Population growth, Australia, December 1982 to June 2009 Year to Natural increase NOM 1 Total increase2 Total population Per cent 31 Dec growth 1982 125,100 102,700 227,800 15,288,900 1.6 1983 132,500 55,000 187,500 15,483,500 1.3 1984 126,600 59,900 186,500 15,677,300 1.3 1985 126,000 89,400 215,400 15,900,600 1.4 1986 128,400 110,800 239,200 16,138,800 1.5 1987 126,600 136,100 262,700 16,394,600 1.6 1988 126,300 172,900 292,500 16,687,100 1.8 1989 126,600 129,500 249,600 16,936,700 1.5 1990 142,600 97,200 233,100 17,169,800 1.4 1991 139,300 81,700 217,200 17,387,000 1.3 1992 139,200 51,400 194,300 17,581,300 1.1 1993 137,800 34,900 178,700 17,760,000 1.0 1994 131,500 55,600 191,500 17,951,500 1.1 1995 129,800 106,800 244,600 18,196,100 1.4 1996 124,800 97,400 224,200 18,420,300 1.2 1997 122,500 72,400 188,800 18,609,100 1.0 1998 120,800 88,800 205,200 18,814,300 1.1 1999 122,000 104,200 224,000 19,038,300 1.2 2000 120,400 111,400 234,300 19,272,600 1.2 2001 117,100 136,100 261,400 19,534,000 1.4 2002 114,600 110,500 237,000 19,771,000 1.2 2003 116,300 110,100 240,900 20,011,900 1.2 2004 116,200 106,400 240,200 20,252,100 1.2 2005 132,000 137,000 292,000 20,544,100 1.4 2006 134,000 182,200 304,700 20,848,800 1.5 2007 148,100 216,200 331,800 21,180,600 1.6 2008 152,700 253,400 406,100 21,644,000 2.2 Year to June 30 2008-09 157,800 285,300 443,100 21,874,900 2.1 Sources: Australian Demographic Statistics, Time series, March 2008, Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), Catalogue no. 310101 for 1982 to 2007; Australian Demographic Statistics, June 2009, ABS December &DWDORJXHQRIRUDQG¿JXUHV Notes: 1 NOM stands for net overseas migration. 27KLVLVQDWXUDOLQFUHDVHSOXV120,WGRHVQRWDGGH[DFWO\WRWKHLQFUHDVH¿JXUHVWKDWFDQEHGHULYHGIURP FKDQJHVLQWKH\HDURQ\HDUWRWDOSRSXODWLRQ¿JXUHV0LQRUGLVFUHSDQFLHVDUHLQWKHRULJLQDOGDWDWKH$%6 adds that differences between total growth and the sum of the components of population change prior to September quarter 2006 are due to intercensal discrepancy (ABS Catalogue no. 3101.0, December 2009, p. 10). People and Place, vol. 18, no. 1, page 50 of the baby boom.6 But as Table 1 shows, students and 146,370 holders of 457 vi- net overseas migration, the variable most sas.8 This gives a total of over one million directly under government control, has temporary residents, without counting any risen much faster and is making the more other foreigners present on long-term visas VLJQL¿FDQWFRQWULEXWLRQWRWRWDOJURZWK such as working holiday-makers or people Net overseas migration (NOM) counts on bridging visas. all people arriving in Australia for stays of Though these temporary numbers are, 12 months or more, minus all departures in principle, under government control, the for 12 months or more.7 This means that permanent migration program is the aspect it is different from the formal permanent of immigration policy most immediately immigration program, described in Table 2. affected by government decisions. Table 2 The latter only counts new settlers granted shows how this program has changed since permanent visas. It does not include New the mid 1990s. When the Howard Coalition Zealanders, or temporary migrants, and Government was elected in March 1996 it it does not take account of departures. moved to reduce the numbers. However, Sometimes one of the series of numbers is by 2001, these were increased until, by the larger, sometimes the other. But in recent WLPHWKH&RDOLWLRQORVWRI¿FHLQ1RYHPEHU years high levels of temporary migration 2007, they were very high. Today, however, have pushed NOM way out in front; it is they are higher still. QRZPXFKKLJKHUWKDQWKHRI¿FLDOSHUPD- nent immigration program (which itself is THE NOVEMBER 2007 ELECTION nonetheless very large). Immigration was not an election issue in The ballooning numbers in the NOM 2007 and the economy was strong; it did series are partly due to the explosion in the QRWEHJLQWRIDOWHUXQWLOWKHJOREDO¿QDQFLDO numbers of international students entering crisis developed in September 2008. The Australia on long-term temporary visas, new Labor Government was led by Kevin partly to the free movement of New Zealand 5XGG2QHRILWV¿UVWDFWVZDVWRLQFUHDVH FLWL]HQVDQGSDUWO\WRWKHLQÀX[RIWHPSR- the permanent migration program for rary workers on 457 visas. For example, in 2008–09 to a record 203,800, a number June 2009 there were 548,256 New Zealand later reduced, in March 2009, to 185,230 as citizens in Australia, 386,523 international the economy weakened.9%XWWKLVQHZ¿J- Table 2: Permanent immigration program, Australia, selected years Category 1996–97 1998–99 2001–02 2006–07 2007–08 2008–09 2009–101 Family reunion 44,580 32,040 38,090 50,080 49,870 56,370 60,300 Skilled 27,550 35,000 53,520 97,920 108,500 115,000 108,100 Special eligibility 1,730 890 1,480 200 220 180 300 Humanitarian 11,900 11,356 12,349 13,017 13,000 13,500 13,750 Total 85,760 79,290 105,440 161,217 171,000 2185,230 182,450 Sources: Population Flows, Immigration Department, various issues. Note: 17KH¿JXUHVIRU±DUHSODQQLQJ¿JXUHVDQGFRPHIURP0LQLVWHULDOPHGLDUHOHDVHV 2 Originally 203,800, but reduced to 185,230 in March 2009; see text. People and Place, vol. 18, no. 1, 2010, page 51 XUHZDVVWLOOWKHKLJKHVWHYHUIRUWKHRI¿FLDO Howard’s failure to mention Work Choices program.10 The Rudd Government also, as during the 2004 campaign).17 Table 1 shows, presided over the increas- John Howard did not press Rudd on his ing numbers of net overseas migrants, an immigration policy, an oversight which is increase which was historically unusual in understandable, given his own rediscov- a time of economic downturn. ered support for growth.
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