IMPACT OF LAND COVER CHANGES ON THE ECOSYSTEM SERVICES PROVIDED BY THE WETLAND

Major project 2 Thesis

Submitted by

AKASH GAUR

For the partial fulfillment of the

Degree of Master of Technology in WATER RESOURCES ENGINEERING AND MANAGEMENT

Submitted to Coca-Cola Department of Regional Water Studies TERI School of Advanced Studies

(May 2020)

1 | P a g e

DECLARATION

This is to certify that the work that forms the basis of this project “IMPACT OF LAND COVER CHANGES ON THE ECOSYSTEM SERVICES PROVIDED BY THE RENUKA WETLAND” is an original work carried out by me and has not been submitted anywhere else for the award of any degree.

I certify that all sources of information and data are fully acknowledged in the project thesis.

AKASH GAUR Reg. no. 1800257MTWR

Date: 29th May 2020

2 | P a g e

CERTIFICATE

This is to certify that AKASH GAUR has carried out his major project 2 in partial fulfilment of the requirement for the degree of Master of Technology in WATER RESOURCES ENGINEERING AND MANAGEMENT on the topic “IMPACT OF LAND COVER CHANGES ON THE ECOSYSTEM SERVICES PROVIDED BY THE RENUKA WETLAND” during January-May 2020. The project was carried out at CENTRE FOR ECOLOGY DEVELOPMENT AND RESEARCH (CEDAR), Dehradun, .

Date: 29th May 2020

Ms. Anvita Pandey (External Supervisor) Dr. Arun Kansal Coordinator Head of the Department Centre for Ecology Development and Coca-Cola Department of Regional Water Studies Research TERI School of Advanced Studies Vasant Vihar, Dehradun New Delhi

3 | P a g e

ACKNOWLEDGMENT

The completion of this project could not have been possible without the participation and assistance of my External supervisor Ms. Anvita Pandey, Internal supervisor Dr. Sherly M.A., Executive Director of CEDAR Dehradun, Dr. Vishal Singh, and fellow Mr. Manish Kumar. Their contributions are sincerely appreciated and greatly acknowledged. I express sincere gratitude for the support, feedback, and encouragement of Dr. Arun Kansal, Ms. Ranjana Ray Choudhury, and Dr. Fawzia Tarannum during the interim presentations. Lastly, to the unconditional moral support of family and friends, I’m forever indebted to them.

Thank you.

4 | P a g e

Table of Contents

Abstract ...... 7

1. Introduction ...... 8

2. Background ...... 9

3. Material and Methods ...... 12

3.1. Study Area ...... 12

3.2. Objectives ...... 13

3.3. Data and Methodology ...... 13

4. Results and Discussions ...... 18

4.1. Land cover change over the past three decades ...... 18

4.2. Ecosystem services provided by the wetland ...... 22 4.2.1. Spatial Map of the villages within the Renuka wetland...... 23 4.2.1.1. Bedon Village ...... 23 4.2.1.2. Dhar Village ...... 24 4.2.1.3. Khala Village ...... 25 4.2.1.4. Kyar Village ...... 26 4.2.1.5. Taran Village ...... 27 4.2.2. Identification of ecosystem services ...... 28 4.2.3. Timeline of Renuka Ji ...... 29 4.2.4. Trend analysis of ecosystem services ...... 30 4.2.5. Seasonality of ecosystem services ...... 32 4.2.6. Prioritization of ecosystem services ...... 32 4.2.7. Challenges, Prioritization, and Impacts ...... 33

4.3. Temporal variation of rainfall ...... 35 4.3.1. Seasonality of rainfall ...... 35 4.3.2. Change of annual rainfall pattern over the years ...... 36 4.3.3. Anomaly Plots ...... 37 4.3.4. Seasonal trend decomposition using the Loess algorithm ...... 38

5. Conclusion ...... 39

6. References ...... 41

7. Annexure(s) ...... 43

5 | P a g e

List of Figures

Figure 1. Study Area – Renuka Ji ...... 12 Figure 2. LULC Map, 1990 ...... 19 Figure 3. LULC Map, 2008 ...... 19 Figure 4. LULC Map, 2018 ...... 20 Figure 5. The spatial distance of villages wrt the Renuka Wetland ...... 22 Figure 6. Map of Bedon Village ...... 23 Figure 7. Map of Dhar Village ...... 24 Figure 8. Map of Khala Village ...... 25 Figure 9. Map of Kyar Village ...... 26 Figure 10. Map of Taran Village ...... 27 Figure 11. List of ecosystem services ...... 28 Figure 12. Trend analysis of ecosystem services ...... 30 Figure 13. Box-whisker plots across months for seasonality ...... 35 Figure 14. Time-series annual rainfall plot ...... 36 Figure 15. Anomaly plots for annual rainfall ...... 37 Figure 16. Seasonal trend decomposition ...... 38

List of Tables

Table 1. Satellite data acquired for the study ...... 15 Table 2. Land Use Land Cover Classes of Renuka Ji ...... 18 Table 3. Accuracy Assessment for classification ...... 21 Table 4. Timeline events of Renuka Ji and nearby villages ...... 29 Table 5. Seasonality of ecosystem services in Renuka Ji...... 32 Table 6. Ranking and scoring of ecosystem services ...... 33

6 | P a g e

Abstract

Ecosystem services are the benefits that we people obtain from the ecosystem. These services are a critical component of human survival. According to the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, these services are classified into four major categories. These include provisioning services, regulating services, cultural services, and supporting services. So these services range from necessities like food, fuel, and water to inherent services like soil formation. The study focusses on a high altitude wetland and wildlife sanctuary in the western Himalayas, Renuka Ji. With the place getting its name on the list of Ramsar sites, it has experienced rapid growth in developmental activities and the conversion of forest cover into barren lands which is destroying the ecosystem landscape and functions. To maintain the present condition and understand the causes of increased siltation, a land cover analysis was done for an area of 16 km2 within close proximity to the wetland. The satellite images for 1990, 2008, and 2018 were used for LULC supervised classification. For the classification, five LULC classes were taken. Accuracy assessment and Kappa analysis was done to ensure better reliability on this classification. The most extensive class of the area is forest cover i.e. 69.95%, followed by barren land at 23.93%. The overall accuracy of the classification for 1990, 2008, and 2018 is 92.50%, 95%, and 95% respectively and Kappa statistics is 0.9062, 0.9375, and 0.9375 for the following years. This quantitative data was then followed by the qualitative data in the form of PRA exercises which tells the trend of the change in ecosystem services. It complements the LULC data and the changes observed through exercises such as spatial mapping, the timeline of the events, trend analysis, seasonality, and ranking and scoring method. The long-term variation in rainfall provides seasonality and changes in the trend using R software. This is then verified with the data collected through PRA.

Keywords: Wetland, Renuka Ji, Land Use, Land Cover, Participatory Rural Appraisal, Temporal Variation.

7 | P a g e

1. Introduction

Ecosystem services are critical for human survival and include benefits that we obtain from the ecosystem. These services are the main products of an ecosystem because it comprises of components that are most essential for survival and development in a human setting and often plays a major role in rural society (Arico et al., 2005). The ecosystem services in a wetland setting are generally more useful for nearby communities as they have easy access to resources and services directly. The identification and listing of these services have been utilized for decades or centuries and thus become important to categorically classify them. It contributes both to the economic as well as the ecological aspect of the wetland. According to a report by Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA, 2005), ecosystem services are classified into the following categories: provisioning services, regulating services, supporting services, and cultural services. Provisioning services include necessities like food, water, fiber, and fuel while the regulating services mainly consist of the regulation of hydrology, climate, erosion, and purification of water. Cultural services provide a whole new dimension of spirituality and aesthetic in inclusion with the recreational part. Supporting services are more towards factors like soil formation and nutrient cycling. These services as a whole are studied to classify the services obtained and utilized by the communities as they provide a holistic view to plan and strategize things at the bigger level. Western Himalaya is an important region because of its unique biodiversity and ecosystem services. The study focusses on understanding the changes in critical ecosystem services associated with Renuka Ji, a high-altitude wetland and wildlife sanctuary in . There is a serious challenge of continuous and rapid urban expansion and the conversion of forest cover into barren land which changes the ecological landscape and ecosystem functions (Das and Das, 2019) and in a wetland setting like the Renuka Ji, it becomes very important to categorize these changes quantitatively since the region is experiencing abrupt changes after its declaration as a Ramsar site. Thus, land use and land cover change become an important tool to identify and determine the changes that occurred over a long period. The changes that occurred in the land cover influenced the dependence of the surrounding communities on the ecosystem services, directly or indirectly. Determination of decadal changes in the land use pattern strengthens the point regarding the haphazard developments that took place in the nearby areas and changes the ecosystem services spatially and 8 | P a g e temporally. Since Renuka Ji is not only a wetland but also a wildlife sanctuary, hence it makes it different from any other wetland in India. The dependence of the population residing there are also very different. Earlier when there was no forest department and wildlife sanctuary, it was different, and then the changes in the services happened after their introduction. After the declaration of the sanctuary, the wetland has undergone several changes. With the development in and around the lake taking place, locals were forbidden to extract services from sanctuary which was once their forest. For ecosystem services such as fodder and fuelwood, some of the villages within the catchment area are still completely or partially dependent on the sanctuary. With the help of participatory rural appraisal (PRA) methods, the identification and changes within the ecosystem services were observed. Some of the local population goes to the sanctuary at odd hours and steal fodder to escape from the fine imposed by the Forest Department. This impacted their livelihood and some of them had to seek other alternative sites for fodder and fuelwood. After the declaration of the lake as a Ramsar site, the changes observed were quite abrupt. Infrastructural developments such as the building of roads posed a serious problem in the form of soil erosion from the adjacent mountain which destroys some of the agricultural fields that are nearer to the wetland and ultimately the head of the lake absorbs this silt. The wetland acts as a buffer and prevents the silt from going to the catchment of the Giri River. In 2015, when the local annual fair got upgraded to international fair, the influx of both national and international tourists during November/December increased many multi-folds due to which the land use type is changing. It needs to be addressed keeping the view of people who are directly/indirectly associated with the Renuka wetland.

2. Background

I. Impact of land use and land cover on ecosystem service

There are few life survival components in the form of ecosystem services that need to be conserved to sustain on this earth. In the Himalayan landscape, these ecosystem services become important as their reduction means the overall deterioration of the ecosystem. The reduction in ecosystem services is often

9 | P a g e highlighted due to recent rapid urban growth and a decrease in forest cover (Singh, 2007). A study conducted in the Western Himalaya suggested that due to population expansion, the Himalayan mountains have suffered harmful effects of deforestation, encroachments of agricultural fields, and soil erosion that follows (Ma, Maohua, Singh, Ram Babu, Hietala, 2012). This is happening on a large scale in the state of Himachal Pradesh and . Generally, the reason for the decline in the ecosystem services is mainly due to the expansion of built-up land that replaces other types of land. Continuous change in the land-use type degrades the functions of an ecosystem (Hu et al., 2019). This directly impacts the livelihood of the people who are associated with it. Another research stated that the change in land use and land cover has a direct impact on the ecosystem services as it changes the structure and functions of an ecosystem (Yuan et al., 2019). The consequences of the change in land cover for ecosystem services and human well-being have received very less attention at a local scale (Reyers et al., 2009). Quantification of the land-use change and its effect on ecosystem services is quite important for socio-economic development and ecological protection (Grenyer et al., 2009). The reduction in a particular class goes on to show that people are not able to utilize a particular ecosystem service which once they had access to. In the context of wetland, these ecosystems are quite sensitive to land use and land cover changes altering the overall quality of services and pose a greater risk because of the promotion of regional development (Valdez, Ruiz-luna and Berlanga-robles, 2016). This situation is quite identical in the case of Renuka wetland also. Due to the recent popularity of the place, it has become sensitive to anthropogenic changes and activities that are taking place near the periphery of the wetland and the sanctuary. But the current challenge is to move from this conceptual framework to an operational framework. It is only now that the literature on the effect of land-use change on ecosystem services is coming up but that too within a wetland system is obsolete (Raudsepp-hearne, Peterson and Bennett, 2010). Ecosystem services vary both spatially as well as temporally due to natural or human-induced changes in the ecosystem (Grenyer et al., 2009). A major challenge to deal with is the limited availability of data on the distribution of services near a lake ecosystem (Anderson, Thomas and Gaston, 2011). The change in the ecosystem and their services is caused by direct drivers like land-use change which in turn is controlled

10 | P a g e by indirect drivers such as demographic, economic, and cultural changes (Sharma and Sharma, 2019). It is an important driver that also alters the hydrology of an ecosystem. An inland wetland largely influences the hydrological cycle, while the change in hydrology affects the wetland (MA, 2005). Drawing on these sources, it is clear that there is a direct impact of land-use change on the ecosystem services and it needs to be studied and analyzed in detail in the context of Renuka wetland also.

II. Use of participatory rural appraisal method for spatial and temporal analysis

Regarding the usage of participatory rural appraisal methods in the analysis of land use and land cover and temporal variation, within the literature there are two main arguments researchers tend to make, one is that in most cases there is lack of generalizability because of the limited spatial coverage of the study area (de Castro et al., 2002) and the other is, participatory rural appraisal methods produce knowledge of both natural and anthropogenic changes that are valid and reliable (Campbell, 2001). The first argument emphasizes that there is limited availability of spatial and temporal data for a mountainous region. The available remote sensing data is not always useful to detect the land-use classes properly. The same happens with time- series data, which most of the time have missing values and then in the end researcher have to interpolate the missing data. Community viewpoints make it viable for the researcher to classify more accurately. The second argument builds on the previous model that the community perception about the changes happening across their place is more reliable than any remote sensing software. Even though ground truthing can be beneficial for change detection but sitting with the local population and knowing from them about how the services and their usage changed over the years give more accurate results. Both views address the usage of PRA in land cover classification and temporal variation and point towards the data triangulation which may give accurate results.

11 | P a g e

3. Material and Methods

3.1. Study Area

Renuka wetland is a natural lake located in the of Himachal Pradesh, 672 m above the mean sea level. The geographical location of Renuka Ji is Latitude 30°36′36″N, Longitude 77°27′30″E. It is an oblong-shaped wetland flanked by two parallel steep hills running east-west. It was declared as a Ramsar site in the year 2005 because of its unique biodiversity and ecological character. This natural lake provides various fundamental ecological functions in the form of economic, cultural, scientific, and recreational value. The Renuka Lake is regarded as a pious water body that holds cultural, religious significance for not only the locals of the adjoining villages but for people all over the country. The total area of the Renuka Ji sub-district is 297 km2. There are almost 74 villages within the Renuka Ji administrative area which comprises a total population of 47,388 out of which 24,221 are male and 23,167 are females (Census, 2011). Figure 1 shows the study area and the following five villages that were considered for the study within proximity to the wetland. Various livelihood opportunities are available in the nearby areas ranging from agriculture to labour work.

Figure 1. Study Area – Renuka Ji Source: Maxar Technologies

12 | P a g e

In the year 1987, an area of around 1400 ha of the lake and adjoining area was declared a sanctuary to protect the rich biodiversity of the area as well as restrict the ongoing illegal poaching activities. With increasing pressure on the wetland through various activities, sound and sustainable management practices must be devised in a participatory manner with all the key stakeholders around the Renuka Wetland. Land-use change near the wetland and adjoining areas will be seen over three major events: Sanctuary declaration, Ramsar site declaration, and International Fair declaration. These events are important in terms of the development activities that took place in and around the lake and how it affected the ecosystem services which the communities used to access within the catchment.

3.2. Objectives

The objectives of this study are:

1. To study the land cover change over the past three decades on the Renuka Wetland.

2. To assess the ecosystem services provided by the wetland and the influence of land cover changes on these services.

3. To analyze the long-term temporal variation of rainfall over the wetland.

3.3. Data and Methodology

The study is based on the mixed-method research in which both qualitative and quantitative data is to be analyzed. The mixed-method approach used is based on the triangulation design in which both qualitative data and quantitative data will be analyzed and interpreted. The qualitative data will complement the quantitative data. The analytic framework for the same is presented below.

13 | P a g e

METHODOLOGY

Satellite data acquired from USGS Participatory Rural IMD Precipitation Data Landsat 5 TM (1990 , 2008) Appraisal (PRA) Method

Landsat 8 OLI (2018)

Image pre- Identification of Rainfall data loaded processing ecosystem services into R Environment

Spatial Map Installation of Georeferencing relevant packages

Radiometric Timeline Box-whisker plots for seasonality Calibration

Annual rainfall Supervised image Trend analysis change plots classification

Accuracy Seasonal calendar Anomaly plots Assessment

Seasonal trend Ranking and Scoring LULC Maps of decomposition 1989, 2008, 2017

Prioritization & Impacts

14 | P a g e

For the study of the land cover changes, the following method was considered:

The LULC changes over three major events were seen: a) Establishment of the wildlife sanctuary. b) Ramsar site declaration. c) International fair declaration.

In this study, a cloud-free Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper data of 1990 and 2008 and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager data of 2018 obtained from United States Geological Survey (USGS) have been used for land use and land cover classification (Das and Das, 2019). The acquired Landsat data were georeferenced with Universal Transverse Mercator Zone 44 datum and the coordinate system applied was World Geodetic System 1984 datum.

Table 1. Satellite data acquired for the study

Satellite images Acquisition date Resolution (m) Cloud Cover (%)

Landsat 5 TM 03/04/1990 30x30 < 10

Landsat 5 TM 13/04/2008 30x30 <10

Landsat 8 OLI 25/04/2018 30x30 (15 m for band <10 8)

The GIS format file of the study area was extracted with the help of Google Earth Pro and ArcGIS 10.1. The Landsat data collected from USGS Earth Explorer was then pre-processed for radiometric or geometric corrections. Image enhancement was done to improve the appearance of the image for visual interpretation and analysis. Image pre-processing, enhancement and the transformation was done by ERDAS IMAGINE 14 software. The study area image was cropped by Extraction Tool under Spatial Analyst Tools of Arc Toolbox in ArcGIS 10.1. For this study, supervised classification was utilized since it gives a very good accuracy over a small area. In that, the maximum likelihood classifier was used. For the classification, five LULC classes i.e. water bodies, forest cover, barren land, agricultural land, and urban high density were classified. The reason for 15 | P a g e choosing these classes was because, during field visits, these were the main classes that were identified. For supervised classification, a total of 78 training sites were made by demarcating a polygon for all the five LULC types (Kaul and Sopan, 2012). After the classification, accuracy assessment was carried out to check the reliability of the maps. To determine the accuracy of supervised classification, a sample of pixels was automatically selected at random and their class is then compared with the reference class. The technique used for accuracy assessment is Kappa analysis of which the Kappa coefficient tells the accuracy of the image within a level of 0 to 1. More is the Kappa coefficient, more is the accuracy of the classification.

For Participatory Rural Appraisal (PRA) exercises, the following method was followed:

A) Population and Study Sample A research was conducted in the villages which are within the catchment of Renuka Wetland. For this, a buffer area consisting of a sanctuary area and villages that are surrounded near the Renuka wetland was considered. The target population was the community from a total of 5 villages which are indirectly or directly associated with Renuka. Ji.

B) Sources of Data: 1. Primary Data The data was obtained through Participatory Rural Appraisal (PRA) exercises and group discussions with the villagers. 2. Secondary Data The data was obtained from Research papers, articles, and reports.

Based on the 4 types of ecosystem services categories (provisioning, regulating, cultural, and supporting) that were found through secondary literature review, focused group discussions were conducted with the community. Remote Sensing and GIS Tool was used to defining the boundary. The spatial drawing of the site enabled us to identify and list ecosystem services from the wetland. Dependence and seasonal dimensions also enabled us to understand the temporal and spatial

16 | P a g e distribution of the ecosystem services. A historical transect helped us identify the temporal changes in ecosystem services. Trend analysis reflected changes in the ecosystem services over the years along with reasons behind the same. Prioritization of Ecosystem services differs for each stakeholder as relationships and perceptions were different for each stakeholder. Ranking and scoring methods were useful for prioritization after listing of different ecosystem services done by different stakeholders within the community.

For determination of the temporal variation of rainfall, the following method was adopted:

The long term temporal variation of rainfall over the Renuka Wetland was analyzed using the R 3.6 version. The data was obtained from the Indian Meteorological Division (IMD) gridded precipitation data at 0.25° for the year 1970 to 2016. It was made available to me by Mr. Manish Kumar, Fellow at Centre for Ecology Development and Research, Dehradun.

The rainfall dataset was loaded into the R 3.6 environment and the data frame was converted into a time-series object for time-series exploration (Kamath and Kamat, 2018). The data was then plotted using the ‘ggplot2’ package in the form of a box- whisker plot to determine the seasonality of rainfall. This seasonality was further complemented by a change in the annual rainfall over the past four decades. It was done to see if the rainfall is increasing or decreasing over time. Anomaly plots were also plotted for the determination of the increase/decrease in the rainfall from the mean rainfall. Finally, the seasonal trend decomposition using the loess algorithm was plotted. This decomposition is used to remove the seasonal effect from rainfall time-series data. For instance, lower rainfall during certain months does not imply that it will be a drought year. Hence, it removes seasonal anomalies from the data.

Rainfall, a proxy for precipitation is a vital ecosystem service that is used by the community residing near the Renuka Wetland. The villagers do not have any irrigation mechanism until now and have to depend on rain for agriculture. This study aimed to analyze the seasonality, change in pattern, and change in the trend of rainfall quantitatively also, in addition to the exercise that was already done

17 | P a g e qualitatively with the community. The following sub-objectives were aimed in this study: a) Seasonality of rainfall. b) Annual rainfall patterns change with time. c) Seasonal trend decomposition using the Loess algorithm.

4. Results and Discussions

4.1. Land cover change over the past three decades

The supervised classification that was done for 1990, 2008, and 2018 images. Figure 2, 3, and 4 shows that the area of water bodies, which comprises the Renuka Lake and the nearby Giri stream shows less variation, but the area covered by these water bodies significantly decreased in last decades. The area of water bodies in 1990 was 0.20 sq. km i.e. 1.25% which decreased to 1.23% in 2008 and 1.06% in 2018. This can be attributed to the fact that the nearby Giri catchment reduced after several dams got constructed in the upper reaches of the River in Himachal Pradesh. There is not much variation observed in the area of Renuka Lake.

Table 2. Land Use Land Cover Classes of Renuka Ji

S.No. Classes Area in 1990 Area in Area in 2018 (sq. km) 2008 (sq. (sq. km) km)

1. Water Bodies 0.2007 0.198 0.171

2. Forest Cover 12.8592 11.556 11.2257

3. Barren Land 2.3274 3.3417 3.8412

4. Agricultural Land 0.5589 0.7452 0.4968

5. Urban High Density 0.1008 0.2061 0.3123

18 | P a g e

Figure 2. LULC Map, 1990

Figure 3. LULC Map, 2008

19 | P a g e

Figure 4. LULC Map, 2018

The most extensive land cover of the study area was the forest cover. It shows greater variations in these three periods i.e. 1990, 2008, and 2018. As shown in Table 2, the forest cover calculated in 1990 was 12.85 sq. km i.e. 80.13% but in 2008 the forest cover decreased to 72.01% because a lot of the green cover changed to the barren land. This can be attributed to the forest fire that happened in the Renuka Ji tehsil in the mid-1990s. There was a very minimal decrease of around 2% in the forest cover from 2008 to 2018.

The second most extensive land cover category is barren land, which had around 2.32 sq. km (14.50%) of the area covered in 1990, 3.34 sq. km (20.82%) in 2008, and 3.84 sq. km (23.94%) in 2018. The barren land has increased very rapidly as can be seen from the figures. Forests fire can be one of the reason and soil erosion is also happening in the mountains rapidly.

The agricultural land has observed a significant increase in its area of 0.55 sq. km (3.49%) in 1990 to an area of 0.74 sq. km in 2008. But during the last few years, the agricultural lands in the region have decreased. In 2018, the area reduced to 0.50 sq. km (3.10%). Many of the fields have been destroyed by the wild animals of the sanctuary. Many people left farming because of getting very less output.

20 | P a g e

The last LULC class classified by the supervised classification is urban high density. These are the area of human habitation and civic amenities. The total area under urban high density increased from 0.10 sq. km (0.62%) in 1990 to 0.20 sq. km (1.29%) in 2008. This further increased to 0.31 sq. km (1.95%) in 2018. This significant increase in urban settlements shows that the area nearby to Renuka Ji is developing at a very fast rate.

Table 3. Accuracy Assessment for classification

Classes Producer’s Accuracy (in %) User’s Accuracy (in %)

1990 2008 2018 1990 2008 2018

Water 100 100 100 100 100 100 Bodies

Forest 77.78 87.50 88.89 87.50 87.50 100 Cover

Barren Land 87.50 87.50 100 87.50 87.50 87.50

Agricultural 100 100 100 87.50 100 87.50 Land

Urban High 100 100 100 100 100 100 Density

1990 – (Overall Classification Accuracy) = 92.50% (Overall Kappa Statistics 0.9062)

2008 – (Overall Classification Accuracy) = 95% (Overall Kappa Statistics 0.9375)

2018 – (Overall Classification Accuracy) = 95% (Overall Kappa Statistics 0.9375)

The results in Table 3 show that the performance of classification is quite good, having an overall accuracy of 92.50%, 95%, and 95% for 1990, 2008, and 2018 respectively. Kappa statistics for the same period is 0.9062, 0.9375, and 0.9375. The accuracy assessment indicates high Kappa values (close to 1). Considering individual classification accuracies, the ‘water bodies’ and ‘urban high density’ gives the most accurately classified with both user’s and producer’s accuracy stands at 100%.

21 | P a g e

4.2. Ecosystem services provided by the wetland

There are a total of five villages on the west face mountain of the Renuka Ji wetland which was considered for this study.

The villages that were completed: Bedon, Dhar, Khala, Kyar, and Taran Village.

Figure 5. The spatial distance of villages wrt the Renuka Wetland Source: Maxar Technologies

The activities undertaken in the following villages were:

1. Spatial map of the villages within the Renuka wetland. 2. Identification of ecosystem services. 3. Time line of Renuka Ji. 4. Trend analysis of ecosystem services. 5. Seasonality of ecosystem services. 6. Prioritization of ecosystem services.

22 | P a g e

4.2.1. Spatial Map of the villages within the Renuka wetland

4.2.1.1. Bedon Village

Figure 6. Map of Bedon Village

This is a semi-urban village that is a part of the Khala-Kyar Panchayat in the Renuka Ji administrative area situated within the Sirmaur district. It is one of the closest villages to the wetland.

Most of the people living here are daily wage earners who work at Dadahu or even Paonta. The main occupation is mainly in the form of labour and the male members of the family go to work. Females are mostly confined to household chores and other domestic work. There is also a ‘Mahila Mandal’ in the village who holds a meeting every month. There are two schools in Bedon. One is a government school which is functioning for decades while a private school has been established recently around 5-6 years back. Another institution of importance is Industrial Training Institute (I.T.I.) which came into the picture in around 2005 when the wetland was given status as a Ramsar Site. Kubja Pavilion is a hall in which various functions used to take place earlier at a very low cost but now it is of not much utility because of the high cost of service. On enquiring about the road

23 | P a g e constructed, the community which also consisted of elderly people could not tell us the approximate duration. They told it has been decades old but the Giri Bridge which connects Bedon to Dadahu was constructed around 1965-1970.

4.2.1.2. Dhar Village

Figure 7. Map of Dhar Village

This is a village which is situated at the west face mountain and is a part of Khala- Kyar Panchayat. The community usually takes the village name as Dhar Taran but we have taken both of the hamlets alone since the whole village is very vast and it was not possible to assemble people of both the villages in one place. We did the same exercises separately in both the village.

The community here mostly work as labourers in the Dadahu market. Few people are engaged in govt. service as well. There are several important infrastructure present in the village. The school situated in Dhar was primary for a long time and it only became middle school around 25 years back. Other resources like road came up around 13-14 years back. Communication tower by Airtel was set up in 2003 while two years back Reliance Jio tower also came up here. Fodder requirement is there for the households which are into animal husbandry. For other households, it is not of much importance. Fuelwood requirement is there for 24 | P a g e households not having stoves or gas cylinders. Its requirement is more in winters and is used to warm oneself.

4.2.1.3. Khala Village

Figure 8. Map of Khala Village

The village is situated at the bottom of the west face mountain of Renuka Ji. It is particularly a settled plain area with agriculture practiced in dominance. This area has no dependency on the sanctuary area for anything for decades.

The community here is mostly engaged in agriculture occupation but few people go for labour works as well. Female members are mostly homemaker and during crop harvest, they help the male members. This trend is prevalent in the village. There are several important infrastructures present in the village. This list includes high school, animal dispensary, and village road among others. For fodder and fuelwood, the village is no way dependent on the sanctuary now because its

25 | P a g e distance is quite far. In events of extreme importance i.e. fodder not available in their forest lands then only they need to go to the sanctuary.

4.2.1.4. Kyar Village

Figure 9. Map of Kyar Village

The village boundary starts just after the head end of the Renuka Lake. Kyar village is situated at the foothills of the west side mountain. Like Khala village, this village is also settled in a plain area with agriculture in dominance. Villagers own animals as well for the dairy business. Some of the households have rental shops at Ashrams. Kun hamlet was also included in the discussion and activities and is shown on the map.

Agriculture is a predominant occupation here with animal husbandry as a second occupation. As stated earlier, few households have rental shops at Ashrams as well. Few people also go for seasonal labour. Some of the important infrastructures present in the village include a primary school, water pipeline, Anganwadi, etc. Its proximity to the wetland helped in the recent developments but it harmed the community as well. It will be discussed in detail in the challenges part. Households 26 | P a g e who are into animal husbandry needs fodder in all the seasons. The same is the case with fuelwood. This village is highly dependent on the sanctuary for these services.

4.2.1.5. Taran Village

Figure 10. Map of Taran Village

The village is situated at the other end of the west face mountain of Renuka Ji. It is at the bottom end of the west face mountain, at one end is the Renuka Ji Lake, and at the other end is the Giri River. Animal husbandry and agriculture are practiced in dominance here. Nawana hamlet is also included within this spatial map as it was easy for people to be a part of the discussion.

As stated earlier, agriculture and animal husbandry is predominant in this village like the case with most of the villages. Few people engage in seasonal employment as well. Important infrastructures present in the village consist of a village road, water pipeline, communication facility which have made life easier for the residents. For fodder and fuelwood, the village has its forest and some of the

27 | P a g e individuals have their personal forest lands. The village is not dependent on the sanctuary for these services.

4.2.2. Identification of ecosystem services

These services were obtained through discussions with the community of the following five villages on the status of various resources that they are using in and around the village. The services obtained was then helpful in the trend analysis and prioritization exercise.

Ecosystem Services

Provisioning Regulating Supporting Cultural Services Services Services Services

Fodder, Fuelwood, Pure Climate, Employment, Prevention of Annual Fair, soil erosion, Faith, Tourism, Natural Herbs Clean Water, Infrastructural Quality of water Kubja Pavilion Development, in the lake Springs

Figure 11. List of ecosystem services

28 | P a g e

4.2.3. Timeline of Renuka Ji

The timeline exercise was carried out to understand the trajectory of developments in the village and the sanctuary, both. This would further help in understanding the trend of different activates over the past few decades. This information was collected from all the five villages and then clubbed together to avoid the repetition of events.

Table 4. Timeline events of Renuka Ji and nearby villages

YEARS EVENTS SINCE CENTURIES Renuka Ji Temple 1930-1940 Nirvana Ashram 1935 Brahm Ashram 1950 Road Development (from Renuka to Sataun) 1950-1960 Temple Structural Development 1957 Khala Village Road 1960 Ashram's Structural Development 1965-1970 Bridge on Giri River 1970 Sanyas Ashram Development 1975-1980 HP Tourism Hotel 1980 Boating 1980 Water Pipeline in Dhar Village 1984-1985 Renuka Vikas Board 1984-1985 Renuka Lake Beautification 1985 Water Pipeline in Khala Village 1985 Parshuram Tal Development 1987 Wildlife Sanctuary declaration 1987 Zoo 1987 Renu Manch 1988-1989 Fencing around sanctuary 1990 Kubja Pavilion Development 1992-1993 Soil Erosion (After the road development of Jamu-Koti Panchayat) 1990-2000 Bathing Ghats 1994-1995 Water Pipeline in Kyar 1995 Lake Cleaning (every 2-3 years) 1995 Canteen near temple 1996-1997 Middle School in Dhar 2000 Animal Dispensary in Khala 2003 Middle School in Khala 2005 Wetland - Ramsar Site declaration 2005 Road Connectivity in Taran 2005-2006 Mahila Bhawan in Kyar

29 | P a g e

2006 Airtel Tower in Dhar 2007 Road Connectivity in Dhar 2008 Anganwadi in Kyar 2010-2012 Primary School in Kyar 2012-2013 Parikrama Pathway around Renuka Lake 2014-2015 Private School in Bedon 2015 International Fair declaration 2015 Nirvana Ashram Gate 2016 High School in Khala 2017 Shops near Ashram 2018 Reliance Jio Tower in Dhar

4.2.4. Trend analysis of ecosystem services

The trend analysis was determined for the ecosystem services that the villages use. This signifies the change in the usage/accessibility of an ecosystem service. These changes are attributed to knowing the change in the services derived by the villagers with respect to the expansion of Renuka Ji as a whole and the village.

Trend 10

5

0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Fodder Fuelwood Employment opportunities Clean water availability Infrastructural development Springs Pure climate Quality of water in the lake Prevention of soil erosion Annual Fair Faith Tourism

Figure 12. Trend analysis of ecosystem services

Dependence of the population on the sanctuary for all of the villages has certainly decreased in the last few decades due to restrictions on the cutting and extraction

30 | P a g e of fodder and fuelwood. Another reason which came up for the decrease was the forest fire. Around the mid-1990s, forest fire occurred in the west side mountain of the wetland and the forests became less dense. Few households across the villages who are into dairy business for their livelihood go to the sanctuary area at odd hours to escape from the fine imposed by the Forest Department. These villages are Dhar, Kyar, and Bedon. The other two villages viz. Khala and Taran are not dependent on the sanctuary. They have their forests. In terms of employment opportunities, people of every village agree that there is a definite increase within Renuka Ji as compared to the late 1980s. But still, there are not a lot of permanent jobs. Seasonal work is taken up by the youth for livelihood. Only a few people get seasonal employment which is for just a few days in a year. Many people are engaged in Dadahu and nearby places as labourers. In Khala and Taran village, during the focus group discussion, an important service came up in the form of the quality of water and its availability. The community feels that the quality of water that is supplied to them has not changed even after decades and the quantity of water available is also adequate in all the months except in some months of summer when they have to go to a nearby srot (spring). Springs topic came in discussion in both Khala and Taran village, there is a perception that the springs are declining in numbers. Many of the springs which were present earlier has now disappeared. The community at Khala village also stressed the vital service which is obtained by the wetland i.e. pure climate. They feel that the quality of good air has decreased over the past decades. This can be inferred from the development activities that took place in the region in the past decades or so. Infrastructural developments as a service were discussed in Dhar village and the people feel that the development has increased in recent years. Roads from Renuka Ji to nearby villages have been built in the last decade. Soil erosion occurrence has also increased in recent years due to rapid infrastructural developments on slopes and because of it, the soil is becoming loose. Thus, Renuka Lake is absorbing a lot of silt which is mainly due to these urban developments and prevents the siltation in the Giri River catchment. Tourism has emerged as one of the key services and came in all the FGDs conducted in the villages. It has certainly increased after the place got publicity on both national and international platforms in the form of the Ramsar site and international fair declaration. Tourism is positively affecting employment. People are now able to indulge in small odd jobs within the tehsil. The community in every village feels that the faith/spirituality of the local

31 | P a g e population has remained intact for centuries but the outside population visiting Renuka Ji has increased since more devotees come to the temple now. This increase is felt more in November when the international fair takes place. A natural resource in the form of herbs was usually found in the reaches of the sanctuary but after it came under the forest department, this service is hardly utilized now.

4.2.5. Seasonality of ecosystem services

The seasonality of services are shown in the following table:

Table 5. Seasonality of ecosystem services in Renuka Ji

Ecosystem Services Months

Rainfall June-September, December-January

Fodder November-June

Fuelwood November-June

Seasonal Employment May-October

The major rainfall event occurs from June to September while minor rainfall is observed in December and January. This temporal variation in rainfall was later verified quantitatively with the help of R software. The requirement of fodder is mostly in the months from November to June. Fuelwood is also required from November to June. Its demand increases from November to February as the winter here is freezing. Seasonal employment is available for plantation, for setting up gabions (if any), repairing of roads or for gravel lift. These are available only for a short duration from May to October.

4.2.6. Prioritization of ecosystem services

An exercise based on the prioritization of services was undertaken to rank the ecosystem services starting from the most important to least important service which is associated with the community/village around the periphery of Renuka

32 | P a g e

Wetland. The community was asked to score a particular service out of 10 and thus the ranking of services was obtained. This is a compilation of all the exercises conducted within the five villages.

Table 6. Ranking and scoring of ecosystem services

Ecosystem Services Scoring (out of 10) Ranking Fodder 10 I Employment opportunities 10 II Faith 10 III Fuelwood 8 IV Clean water 7 V Pure climate 7 VI Infrastructural development 6 VII Springs 5 VIII Tourism 5 IX Quality of water in the lake 5 X Prevention of soil erosion 4 XI Annual fair 3 XII Kubja pavilion 1 XIII Herbs 1 XIV

4.2.7. Challenges, Prioritization, and Impacts

Prioritization of ecosystem services obtained through the exercise presents a broad picture of what is at the top-most priority for the community and what is of least importance.

The requirement of fodder is essential for households that are into animal husbandry. During the early 1980s when the surrounding forests near the wetland were not under the forest department, there was no restriction on the extraction of both fodder and fuelwood. Later on, when iron nets were used to demarcate the sanctuary area and fines were imposed, people had to look for alternative sites even if they have to travel a few kilometres more. Few times when people are caught, their sickle gets captured by the forest guards. Due to this helplessness people have to go to the sanctuary in times when there is no fodder in their forest lands. Hence the dependence decreased considerably on the sanctuary for both

33 | P a g e fodder and fuelwood. Employment as an ecosystem service has fairly increased as compared to the late 1990s due to popularization of the place both for faith and leisure but these are limited to labour works but still, a very small number of permanent jobs are available to the local youth. A very few individuals from the villages are into the local government jobs. Others have to do odd jobs to earn some money. Many are engaged in the nearby Dadahu market as labourers. Repairing works, plantation are some of the common work available in seasonal opportunities. Another ecosystem service that is of importance is faith/spirituality on Renuka Ji. The community believes that faith is one thing that they will never compromise on account of anything. They gave an example of boating at Renuka Ji Lake as an instance. They were pretty clear that it is against their sentiments to boat over Renuka Ji and no one from any of the village has ever taken the ride on a boat. This trend is seen across all the villages surveyed. Springs which are very crucial services in the mountains is becoming a major concern here and to conserve it there must be better management practice. Few of the springs have disappeared in the past decades or so. It is very important for this area according to the villagers to have natural resources in their original state because most of them get water in the households through springs. Linking the springs with the availability of clean water, more springs will ensure a better mechanism to supply clean water. There is a major spring situated within the Jamu village of the Jamu-Koti Panchayat from where most of the villages get its water supply. Even though the quality of water has not decreased over the years in the Jamu-Koti spring but a decrease in its volume may impact future water needs. After the place came on the list of places of international interest for environment and biodiversity, it is trying to expand in terms of development also. Its infrastructural developments have grown from the early 2000s and due to this people are finding it more convenient to travel and transport via road. There are negative sides to it too. Due to excessive construction on slopes, forests are decreasing and soil erosion is increasing. Renuka Ji has experienced the impact of change in the climate in the past few years as the rainfall which used to happen over the long duration has shortened and the heavy downpour is experienced in a short period due to which increased phenomenon of siltation is observed every year. The quality of water in the lake is also deteriorating because of soil erosion/siltation. The lake acts as a buffer and thus this silt does not go to the Giri catchment. The community is very well aware that the water in the lake is not that pure now but still the faith prevails and they take a

34 | P a g e dip in the Lake during Sankranti. The local fair which now has become international provides people an opportunity to explore and celebrate the festival but there are problems associated with it too. Cleanliness, an arising issue after the fair gets over is a major highlight. The influx of tourists has increased by many multi-folds in recent times due to which the environment gets further deteriorated after the fair. The sewage directly goes into the lake and because of that, the sanctity of the place is destroyed. Kubja pavilion which was once a very important service has become redundant in recent times. The same is the case with natural herbs as they are now not accessible due to restrictions and it has become a long- lost service that was once used.

4.3. Temporal variation of rainfall

4.3.1. Seasonality of rainfall

Figure 13. Box-whisker plots across months for seasonality

It can be inferred from the graph that the rainfall occurs maximum from June to September in a calendar year. Thus seasonality of rainfall is during these following months. During the before sanctuary declaration period, July registers the maximum amount of rainfall up to 700 mm while August received the maximum 35 | P a g e amount at around 600 mm. A one-off event during one of the years in the period 1970-1986 has seen August receive the maximum ever rainfall of 800 mm. During the period from 1987 to 2004, the maximum amount of rainfall that was registered was in July (825 mm). A mean rainfall of 650 mm is observed in July during this period. Average rainfall increased during this period as opposed to the period before the sanctuary declaration. During the period of Ramsar site declaration to the international fair, the mean rainfall is maximum in the July month and it stands at around 525 mm. While the actual maximum rainfall occurred was around 875 mm in August. Here also, the seasonality of rainfall is from June to September.

4.3.2. Change of annual rainfall pattern over the years

Figure 14. Time-series annual rainfall plot

It can be inferred from the graph that in the year 1974, Renuka Ji experienced the lowest amount of annual rainfall which was around 50 mm, probably the year around this was attributed as drought years. But after that, the rainfall started increasing exponentially in the late 1970s. Even though there were fluctuations but the annual rainfall did not fall below 1000 mm in any of these years. Hence there was an increased rainfall trend before the establishment of the wildlife sanctuary.

36 | P a g e

The period between the establishment of the wildlife sanctuary and the Ramsar site declaration, the rainfall trend has been without any significant trend. Even when there is no particular trend that can be inferred from the graph but the rainfall did not fall below 1000 mm in any of these years. The maximum rainfall that occurred during these years was around 2250 mm which is well above the annual average rainfall in India. The rainfall is not following only the increasing curve but still, the rainfall event that occurred during this period has increased from the past trend.

The period from the Ramsar site to international fair declaration presents a broader picture of how unpredictable the rainfall was during these years. With minimum rainfall of 902 mm in the year 2009 to a maximum rainfall of 2697 mm in 2013, the mean rainfall increased to 1728 mm from the past mean of 1696 mm. This shows that the rainfall in Renuka Ji is increasing every decade as opposed to what the people’s perception was.

4.3.3. Anomaly Plots

Figure 15. Anomaly plots for annual rainfall

Anomaly plots were used to analyze the anomaly between the mean rainfall during these years and the rainfall that occurred during that particular year. The mean

37 | P a g e rainfall for the period (1970-1986) is 1144 mm. It can be inferred from this graph that most of the negative anomaly can be seen from the year 1972 to 1977. The highest negative anomaly is 1095 mm in the year 1974 whereas the highest positive anomaly is 779 mm in the year 1978. The positive impact of rainfall is seen from the early 1980s when the rainfall event started improving. After the establishment of the wildlife sanctuary, the plot signifies that the highest positive and negative anomaly occurred during two consecutive years (1990 and 1991). The mean rainfall during the period (1987-2004) is 1696 mm. The highest positive anomaly and the highest negative anomaly is around 600 mm. Overall it shows that there is a positive trend observed after the establishment of wildlife sanctuary and the amount of mean rainfall increased from 1144 mm to 1696 mm i.e. an increase of around 500 mm. During the start of the Ramsar site period, the rainfall was around the mean rainfall i.e. 1728 mm, but as we progressed it also experienced the highest negative anomaly of 826 mm in the year 2009. Later in that period, the highest positive anomaly was experienced in 2013 with 967 mm of extra rainfall. Overall the decade experienced an increasing trend of rainfall with average rainfall increasing than the past decades. This has also increased various problems near the wetland.

4.3.4. Seasonal trend decomposition using the Loess algorithm

Figure 16. Seasonal trend decomposition

38 | P a g e

The seasonal trend decomposition was obtained using the loess algorithm and it signifies the data in a very distributed manner. Within this single graph, there are four sub-graphs out of which the first one showcase the data in its raw form which was obtained from the IMD. The second sub-graph represents the seasonal variation. The third sub-graph represents the actual trend of the rainfall. The forth sub-graph shows the data that is remaining. Before the establishment of the wildlife sanctuary, the seasonal variation did not experience much change. It could be inferred from the graph that there was a certain decrease in the trend in the mid- 1970s because of less rainfall but after that, it has increased quite rapidly and it reaches the maximum in around the late-1970s. After that, there is a drop which again rises and the trend reaches a maximum around the establishment of the wildlife sanctuary. In the period between the establishment of wildlife sanctuary and the Ramsar site declaration, the rainfall increased. With this, the seasonal variation also changed and it peaked around 1996-1997 and after that, it decreased. The trend line however shows a not so fluctuating multi-modal curve. It peaks around 1988 and 1990 and after that, it remains constant and around 2002 it touches the trough. During the period between the Ramsar site and international fair, there is a very haphazard pattern in precipitation with some years experiencing very high rainfall in the history of the data availability. The seasonal variation does not change very much in this decade. However, the trend line is fluctuating as in the case of its previous interval. There is an overall increase in the trend and it peaks around 2010 and 2013 when it rained more than usual.

5. Conclusion

The study focussed on three individual aspects.

1. Land cover changes over the past three decades in Renuka wetland. 2. Ecosystem services provided by the Renuka wetland and the changes observed. 3. Temporal variation in rainfall from 1970 to 2016.

Through the land use land cover data, the major outcome was the conversion of forest ecosystem service into barren land and urban high density over the past three

39 | P a g e decades. Barren land has increased by over 65% while urban expansion has increased by over 210% over the past three decades within the tehsil. On the other hand, forest cover has decreased by 15% in the same period. Clearly, there is a major shift from forest cover to the barren land and urban high-density class. Because of this, the phenomenon of siltation is increasing and the lake which acts as a buffer and provides regulating ecosystem service in the form of prevention of soil erosion is getting degraded. Several other issues also emerged at the village level but urbanization is the most highlighted one. Dadahu town which is just 2 km away from the wetland has experienced the most of this urbanization followed by Bedon village. Even though the accessibility of ecosystem services like fodder and fuelwood has decreased in the past decades as can be seen in the land-use maps but there has been an increase in the provisioning ecosystem service like employment opportunities due to infrastructural developments for the local population. Earlier the locals were dependent on just agriculture but after the Ramsar site declaration, the growth in urbanization has open up opportunities for people to work nearby to their villages. Tourism service is also a big factor in this.

The seasonality of ecosystem services was analyzed using the PRA technique. In this, rainfall was one of the key services which the wetland obtain. It was then analyzed through R software. After analyzing the whole trend of seasonality in all these years, June-September has come out as the period during which the maximum amount of rainfall occurs in a year. Through PRA exercise with the community, the seasonality of rainfall came out to be July and August which is true. In some of the places like Kyar village, we even obtained the exact months during our discussions i.e. June-September. The annual rainfall pattern over the years, however, was not confirmed with the PRA as the community feels that the rainfall phenomenon has reduced but it is exactly opposite to what people perception was. It has only increased over the decades, but this could be attributed to the fact that the rainfall duration has reduced, and flash rainfall phenomenon has increased. The trend has also not been very significant over the decades.

Even though the aspects were individually different but they were inherently connected. This study provides a holistic viewpoint of the community with regards to the land cover changes and how the ecosystem services got impacted by the same. There are both negatives and positives from the land-use changes and the negatives like overexploitation of natural resources at the cost of urbanization need

40 | P a g e to be managed efficiently by the local authority. The western Himalayas are already experiencing a boom in urbanization and it becomes very important in a wetland setting like the Renuka Ji which has just started growing from the last decade.

6. References

Anderson, B. J., Thomas, C. D. and Gaston, K. J. (2011) ‘The influence of temporal variation on relationships between ecosystem services’, pp. 3285–3294. doi: 10.1007/s10531-011-0113-1.

Arico, S. et al. (2005) Ecosystems and Human Well-Being.

Campbell, J. R. (2001) ‘Participatory Rural Appraisal as Qualitative Research: Distinguishing Methodological Issues from Participatory Claims’, Human Organization. Society for Applied Anthropology, 60(4), pp. 380–389. Available at: http://www.jstor.org/stable/44127502. de Castro, F. et al. (2002) ‘The Use of Remotely Sensed Data in Rapid Rural Assessment’, Field Methods, 14(3), pp. 243–269. doi: 10.1177/15222X014003001.

Das, M. and Das, A. (2019) ‘Dynamics of Urbanization and its impact on Urban Ecosystem Services ( UESs ): A study of a medium size town of , Eastern India’, Journal of Urban Management. Elsevier B.V., 8(3), pp. 420–434. doi: 10.1016/j.jum.2019.03.002.

Grenyer, R. et al. (2009) ‘Priority research areas for ecosystem services in a changing world’, pp. 1–15.

Hu, S. et al. (2019) ‘Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Ecosystem Service Value Determined by Land-Use Changes in the Urbanization of Anhui Province , China’, pp. 1–18.

Kamath, R. S. and Kamat, R. K. (2018) ‘Time-series Analysis and Forecasting of Rainfall at Idukki district , : Machine Learning Approach’, (October).

Kaul, H. a and Sopan, I. (2012) ‘Land Use Land Cover Classification and Change

41 | P a g e

Detection Using High Resolution Temporal Satellite Data’, Journal of Environment, 01(04), pp. 146–152.

Ma, Maohua, Singh, Ram Babu, Hietala, R. (2012) ‘Human driving forces for ecosystem services in the Himalayan region’, Environmental Economics, 3(1), pp. 53–57.

MA (2005) Ecosystems and Human Well-Being: Wetlands and Water.

Raudsepp-hearne, C., Peterson, G. D. and Bennett, E. M. (2010) ‘Ecosystem service bundles for analyzing tradeoffs in diverse landscapes’. doi: 10.1073/pnas.0907284107.

Reyers, B. et al. (2009) ‘Ecosystem Services, Land-Cover Change, and Stakeholders : Finding a Sustainable Foothold for a Semiarid Biodiversity Hotspot’.

Sharma, Abhay and Sharma, Abha (2019) ‘Impact of anthropogenic activities on Himalayan ecosystem services and their management / sustainability : A review’, 8(1), pp. 361–365.

Singh, S. P. (2007) ‘Himalayan Forest Ecosystem Services’, p. 53. Available at: https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/48026024.pdf.

Valdez, V. C., Ruiz-luna, A. and Berlanga-robles, C. A. (2016) ‘Journal of Coastal Zone Effects of Land Use Changes on Ecosystem Services Value Provided By Coastal Wetlands : Recent and Future Landscape Scenarios’, 19(1), pp. 1–7. doi: 10.4172/2473-3350.1000418.

Yuan, K. et al. (2019) ‘The Influence of Land Use Change on Ecosystem Service Value in Shangzhou District’.

42 | P a g e

7. Annexure(s)

Important information required for PRA exercises

Spatial Map Timeline (in Time Trend (List of ecosystem Seasonality Scoring and terms of services and changes in terms of Ranking historical the pattern) changes) In the context of In the context village of livelihood

Location of Declaration of Forest cover It will differ Fodder Scoring and village w.r.t. Renuka Vikas ranking of the wetland Board, services which Sanctuary, we found Ramsar Site and Wetland (Process and Impacts)

Demarcate Infrastructure Soil erosion Rainfall According to the forest changes challenges faced area used for by villagers and fodder Buildings prioritization of collection these services Temples

Shops

Demarcate Land uses, Water sources Water the forest changes and availability/ area used for impact on it sources fodder collection Livelihood Other

List of houses Soil erosions Water Soil Erosion at the village (Reasons) quantity/quality level Land sliding (Reasons)

43 | P a g e

Fair and Events Rainfall

Local-level

Other kinds of fair and events

Some photographs from the stakeholders’ meeting and community interaction

44 | P a g e