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European Private Equity Market Outlook for 2012

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European Private Equity Market Outlook for 2012 European Private Equity Market Outlook for 2012 May 2012 European Private Equity Market Outlook for 2012 DISCLAIMER This study has been prepared by Idinvest Partners and/or its affiliates (“Idinvest Partners”) for the exclusive use of the party to whom Idinvest Partners delivers this presentation (together with its subsidiaries and affiliates, the “Company”) using information provided by the Company and other publicly available information. The valuations, forecasts, estimates, opinions and projections contained herein involve elements of subjective judgment and analysis. This material is for information and illustrative purposes only, is not investment advice and is no assurance of actual future performance or results of any Private Equity segment or fund. Any information or opinion expressed herein is subject to change without notice. Nothing contained herein is, or shall be relied upon as, a promise or representation as to the past or future. Idinvest Partners, its affiliates, directors, officers, employees and/or agents expressly disclaim any and all liability relating or resulting from the use of all or any part of this study. This study has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. The Company should not construe the contents of this presentation as legal, tax, accounting or investment advice or a recommendation. The Company should consult its own counsel, tax and financial advisors as to legal and related matters concerning any transaction described herein. This study does not purport to be all-inclusive or to contain all of the information that the Company may require. No investment, divestment or other financial decisions or actions should be based solely on the information in this study. Distribution of this study to any person other than the Company and those persons retained to advise the Company, who agree to maintain the confidentiality of this material and be bound by the limitations outlined herein, is unauthorized. This material must not be copied, reproduced, distributed or passed to others at any time, in whole or in part, without the prior written consent of Idinvest Partners. Idinvest Partners specifically prohibits the redistribution of this material and accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties in this respect. 2 European Private Equity Market Outlook for 2012 TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................ 4 MacrOECONOMIC OVERVIEW....................................... 9 Economic Growth . 9 Inflation . 10 Public markets . 10 PRIVate EQUITY MARKET PERFORMANCE............................. 11 PRIVate EQUITY MARKET REVIEW .................................. 13 Fundraising .............................................13 Deal making . 14 Institutional Investors’ Allocation to Private Equity for 2012 . 18 SECONdarY MARKET OVERVIEW ................................... 21 Secondary Market Overview ................................21 Secondary sellers. 22 Secondary buyers . 23 Secondary Fundraising ....................................23 Secondary pricing ........................................24 Secondary performance . 25 Secondary outlook for 2012 . 25 REGIONAL & COUNTRY PROFILES ................................... 27 Evaluation Criteria . 27 France . 30 Germany, Switzerland & Austria (Dach) . 32 UK & Ireland . 40 Nordics . 42 Benelux . 52 Iberia . 59 Italy . 62 C&E Europe.............................................64 North America...........................................66 Asia . 68 Latin America . 70 Rating Synthesis by Region . 72 APPENDIX .................................................... 74 1. Size of European Funds in the market ......................74 2. Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections..........75 3. Number and value of European Buyout deals by size range . 76 3 European Private Equity Market Outlook for 2012 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY GLOBAL ECONOMY & PRIVate EQUITY MARKET PERFORMANCE With the global economy slowdown, volatile financial markets and the European debt crisis, 2011 has been a difficult year both for investors and fund managers. In these difficult market conditions, Private Equity buyout investments largely outperform their public equity peers. During the post-crisis periods, Private Equity investments register a peak performance because of a lack of long term visibility due to high public markets volatility. Private Equity volatility remains on average 50% lower than the public markets’ volatility. Thus, Private Equity is considered as an attractive asset class in times economic turmoil. Mid-market funds have proven to be more resilient in difficult financial conditions. Performance across time horizons varied according to fund size. In the long term, the best-performing funds were the mid-market buyout funds in the €200 million to €500 million bracket (with a net-pooled IRR since inception of 19%). European Buyout funds performance by fund size as of 30/09/2011 (Formed between 2000 - 2011) Fund Size No. of funds Pooled IRR 0 - 200m 262 11,7% 200m - 500m 80 19,0% 500m - 1bn 57 15,5% 1bn + 59 9,3% All Buyout 458 11,8% Source: Compiled by Idinvest Partners, Thomson Reuters 4 European Private Equity Market Outlook for 2012 CURRENT BUYOUT actiVITY IN EUROPE Despite a shy rebound in 2011 fundraising and deal making, the growth trend is expected to continue as investors are likely to maintain or slightly increase their allocation to Private Equity in 2012. Institutional investors will most probably continue to back their existing GP relationships with a constant look at newer fund managers with compelling stories. In terms of regional allocation, investors show a growing interest of the European market, and more specifically the Nordics countries, Germany, United Kingdom and France. In 2011, these regions have known a strong rebound both in terms of deal volume and value, and have almost reached 2007 value and volume levels. European Buyout deals: value and volume levels (2007 vs. 2011) 100 Volume 80 Value vels 60 le 40 2007 20 0 Nordics France Iberia Benelux CEE DACH United Kingdom Source: Compiled by Idinvest Partners, Private Equity Insight The most vigorous activity was registered in the €100 million to €1 billion transactions’ 100 bracket, while large transactions’ volume has slightly decreased. 80 The60 fundraising outlook for 2012 remains relatively positive, although institutional investors40 are demanding regarding fund selection. 20 0 Nordics France Iberia Benelux CEE DACH United Kingdom PERSPECTIVES: INstitUTIONAL INVestORS’ ALLOcatiON TO PRIVate EQUITY FOR 2012 Although the market remains uncertain, institutional investors show an increased interest in Private Equity. The rebound from the global financial crisis continues, and investors are likely to commit more in Private Equity in 2012, especially with existing GP relationships as the appetite for new managers remains limited. Investors are targeting mid-market funds in their home markets. Interest in U.S. large buyout funds and global mega buyout funds remains low. Institutional investors are currently increasing their allocation to the secondary Private Equity market. Common motivations are: mitigation of the J-curve effect, early cash distribution, good discounts on NAV, and diversification by vintage year. North America and Western Europe remain geographical regions of greatest interest for institutional investors. 5 European Private Equity Market Outlook for 2012 SECONdarY MARKET The global secondary market deal-flow in 2011 saw a 24% growth of levels of activity compared to 2010, thus becoming the busiest year in the secondary market history, with the $ 27 billion amount exceeded for the first time. Historical and 2012 projected secondary transaction volume ($ bn) $ bn 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 E Source: NYPPEX The secondary market volume was primarily driven by mid-market funds of less than $500m. Secondary pricing for all Private Equity funds in H2 2011 decreased as a percentage of NAV. In H2 2011, the average high bid decreased from 84.5% in H1 2011 to 80.6% of the reported NAV. The secondary transactions show an attractive risk–adjusted return compared to other Private Equity asset classes, with a median IRR of 17%, calculated over a pool of funds launched between 2000 and 2011. Risk and Return Profile by Fund Strategy, Vintage 2000 - 2011 R 30% All private Equity 25% Buyout 20% Mezzanine 15% Secondaries Deviation of Net IR 10% rd 5% Venture Standa Median Net IRR 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Source: Compiled by Idinvest Partners, Preqin The secondary market has been constantly growing since several years, taking its place in the overall Private Equity industry. This positive trend is expected to continue in 2012, accelerating both the investment pace and the fundraising levels. Based on both primary funds’ volume, and large secondary offerings currently on the market, the secondary deal-flow should remain deep and abundant. 2012 should be also a good year in terms of secondary fundraising – as of mid-2011, more than 30 funds were in the market totaling over $20 billion in commitments. Secondary market pricing is expected to be in-line with current levels, assuming that Q4 2011 NAVs reflect the current situation and take into the account the European debt crisis. Given the current levels of fundraising, dry powder and total sales’ volumes in the secondary market, supply and demand
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