By Anders Hellner Illustration Ragni Svensson

40 essay feature interview reviews 41 NATURAL GAS MAKES RUSSIA STRONGER BY ANDERS HELLNER ILLUSTRATION RAGNI SVENSSON or nearly 45 years, the Baltic was a divided Russia has not been particularly helpful. For the EU, sea. Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania were which has so many member states with “difficult” incorporated into the Soviet Union. Poland backgrounds in the area, the development of a stra- and East Germany were nominally inde- tegy and program for the Baltic Sea has long held high pendent states, but were essentially governed from priority. This is particularly the case when it comes to Moscow. Finland had throughout its history enjoyed issues of energy and the environment. limited freedom of action, especially when it came to foreign and security policies. This bit of modern history, which ended less than twenty years ago, still in- In June 2009, the EU Commission presented a fluences cooperation and integration within the Baltic proposal for a strategy and action plan for the entire Sea area. region — in accordance with a decision to produce The former Baltic Soviet republics were soon in- such a strategy, which the EU Parliament had reached tegrated into the European Union and the Western in 2006. Immediately thereafter, the European defense alliance NATO. The U.S. and Western Europe Council gave the Commission the task of formulating accomplished this in an almost coup-like manner. It what was, for the EU, a unique proposal. The EU had was a question of acting while Russia was in a weake- never before developed strategies applying to specific ned state. East Germany was reunited with West Ger- geographical areas within the Union. The Baltic Sea many and was thus pulled into both the EU and NATO. strategy is a pilot project and may come to be followed Following the Baltic States’ example, Poland quickly by similar projects for other areas. During the lat- let itself be incorporated into the West’s economic ter half of 2009, under Sweden’s EU presidency, the and military structures. A resurrected but weakened project, parts of which had been initiated earlier, was Russia viewed this development with disapproval and launched. The project is extensive, if somewhat vague, bitterness. The Russian prime minister Vladimir Putin and affects almost 100 million people living in eight has called the dissolution of the Soviet Union a geopo- EU countries around the Baltic Sea. The strategy has litical catastrophe. its roots in concern over the lack of coordination that The integration has run into a series of difficulties. has characterized the region for so long, and which is First, many loved a weak Germany. Then, many loved a weak Russia. In the Nord Stream project, the two have found each other. As in the 1920s? 42 essay feature interview reviews 43 primarily caused by the region’s sharp division during 2000, both the EU Commission and the EU Parlia- primarily grounded in the fact that Russia has disap- use their large energy resources for political purposes. the Cold War. The principle problems are: the seri- ment expressed their support for the project, and re- pointed expectations when it comes to developing de- Here, the EU can get into serious political trouble in ously worsened state of the environment throughout affirmed their support in 2006. Here, then, a number mocracy, a market economy, and a state ruled by law. the future. The only countries among the Baltic Sea almost the entire Baltic Sea, inadequate transporta- of European countries are torn between their need for On the other side of the Baltic Sea, especially in the region’s EU members that have a positive view of the tion infrastructure, trade barriers, and uncertainty energy, and their fear that Russia will use its energy Baltic States and Poland, where memories of Russian project are, in fact, Germany and Denmark. surrounding energy sources. resources to regain influence over the areas that once hegemony are fresh, there is great suspicion of Rus- In late October 2009, Denmark gave its consent The Baltic Sea strategy entails a new way of working made up the Soviet Union, including those countries sian intentions and Russia’s exercise of power. to the project, and Sweden and Finland gave theirs and cooperating within the Union. New laws or institu- which once were members of the Communist empire’s in November. The Swedish government’s decision tions are not really essential to future progress. What Warsaw Pact. In an open letter to President Obama met with critique from, among others, the Swedish is essential is that the governments show willingness to this spring, 23 former heads of state and a number Few claim that the Nord Stream project would Social Democrats. The minister of the environment, find new ways of cooperating effectively. The countri- of Central European intellectuals pointed out that entail a direct military threat. On the other hand, the Andreas Carlgren, however, was of the opinion that es’ economies must be coordinated. Today, trade with Russia, after the invasion of Georgia, had proclaimed project may give the Russian military occasion for the government had made an extensive environme- countries that are immediate neighbors predomina- a “sphere of privileged interests” which might very expanding its presence in the middle of the Baltic Sea. ntal investigation of the gas pipeline and that Nord tes. The development in the Baltic Sea region has been likely include their countries as well. “Pipeline politics A hypothetical terror threat would serve as an excel- Stream, during the 23 months the investigation lasted, hindered by the great distances within the area, but is a Russian tactic”, said the authors of the letter, two lent excuse for Russia (and for Germany) to arrange had been assigned some serious homework. Carlgren also the distances to the rest of the EU countries. It of which were Václav Hável and Lech Walesa. for military supervision of the construction of Nord further stated that “all states have the right to place a takes 36 hours to get from Warsaw to Tallinn by train. Radoslaw Sikorski, at present Poland’s foreign mi- Stream, which would continue, perhaps, even after line in international waters”. The United Nations Con- Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania are isolated when it co- nister, went the furthest. During his term as defense the pipeline has begun to function. In the future, Nord ference on the Law of the Sea is unequivocal. This is mes to energy supplies. minister, he compared the Russian-German agree- Stream will provide a significant proportion of the EU because no coastal state should be able to monopolize ment on the construction of the Nord Stream pipeline countries’ energy supply; it may fetter EU in its future international waters. So Nord Stream is not a joint pro- with the 1939 Molotov-Ribbentrop pact, which had de dealings with Russia. ject for the Baltic Sea. This also means that the large Lately, the Russian-German energy project facto divided Central Europe into spheres of Russian Nord Stream’s structures are expected to operate project will make it more difficult to decide on a joint Nord Stream has added to tensions in the Baltic re- and German influence. for about fifty years. If and when the Russian military EU energy policy. gion. As in the case of a similar project, South Stream, presence in the area increases, it is not unreasonable The Danish Ministry of Climate and Energy con- which runs under the Black Sea, Russia has managed to assume that other countries will also boost their cluded that the gas line will not be a serious threat to to get a firm grip on Europe’s future energy supply. In At present, it seems that a service platform, which was 17 percent up until 2030. If this forecast proves realis- Gerhard Schröder played an interesting role military presence. The result will be increased ten- environment, marine life, or cultural heritage. During a number of countries, fear is spreading, a fear rooted to be established northeast of Gotland at a depth of 50 tic, the future need for Russian gas will be significantly in the foundation of Nord Stream. It was while he sion, perhaps incidents that will require diplomatic the period of environmental impact assessment by the in previous experience. This is not just a matter of Rus- to 90 meters, will not in fact be built. smaller than today’s estimates. was Federal Chancellor that Germany approved the intervention. Any terrorist threats leveled against the Danish authorities, the corporation agreed to comply sia securing the export of its large gas reserves, or of If everything goes according to plan, one of the two A variety of different objections were raised against project and, furthermore, provided an economical installation will be dealt with by Russian armed forces. with a series of Danish demands. Among other things, meeting Western Europe’s great energy requirements. lines, with a capacity of 27.5 billion cubic meters, will Nord Stream. The construction of the pipeline may, guarantee of 1.4 billion dollars. The deal between Rus- A law passed fairly recently gives the Russian presi- the route is to be changed so that it goes south rather No, say many: in the background, a broad and ambi- be ready to start operating in 2010. The second line, for instance, lead to environmental problems. These sia and Germany was cemented a few weeks before dent the mandate to deploy Russian forces abroad than north of Bornholm. The Bornholm fishermen tious political agenda is unfolding, designed by an with the same capacity, would be ready in 2012. specific misgivings have delayed the start of the pro- Schröder left office after the election defeat of 2005.

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