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Strategic Suppliers to the UK Government

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Strategic Suppliers to the UK Government Strategic Suppliers to the UK Government 2018/19 Update September 2019 Trusted insight on government contracts and spend Tussell Strategic Suppliers Update September 2019 Public procurement is a market worth 10% of UK GDP, making the government the largest and most influential customer in the country. The Spending Round in early September 2019 announced measures that will actually increase the size of public spending as a proportion of GDP for the first time since 2010. With both main parties talking up investment in infrastructure and an end to austerity this looks set to continue into 2020 and beyond. Despite this market potential, the last two years have been a turbulent time to be a major supplier to government. From the collapse of Carillion to a number of high-profile IT contract failures, many questions have been raised over the model of outsourcing and large contractors have often been in the news for all the wrong reasons. In a climate of public controversy, media scrutiny and investor scepticism about suppliers to government, it is easy to lose sight of the facts. Without them, it is impossible for firms to navigate a shifting market, for government to monitor value for money, or for the media to scrutinise public spending. That is why we think it’s more important than ever to monitor the Strategic Suppliers*: the 34 firms deemed so vital to the functioning of public services that the Cabinet Office centrally manages the government’s relationship with them. This report is the latest in our series monitoring government spend with the Strategic Suppliers. In it we analyse the performance of the 34 firms in the government’s last financial year and examine the very diverse strategies these firms employ to survive and thrive in the public sector marketplace. Key Findings: · Central & Local Government spent more than £10bn on the 34 Strategic Suppliers in the 2018/19 financial year. · However their strong market positions are under pressure – their market share declined by 15% year on year. · There is considerable variance in the go-to-market strategy of the Strategic Suppliers, even those operating in the same sector. · While Central Government is the main source of revenue for the Strategic Suppliers, Local Government appears to be under-penetrated by several of them. · Four Central Government departments are responsible for three quarters of all spend with the strategic suppliers – the MoD, DfT, Home Office and DWP. · Looking ahead, while some of the Strategic Suppliers face risk of revenue attrition from upcoming contract expirations, others have seen particularly positive rates of revenue replacement from new contracts won. Our report shows that the government’s policy of diversifying its direct suppliers in order to reduce over-reliance on a core group of companies is broadly achieving its goal. While this is good news for public services – a more diverse supply chain is more competitive, innovative and efficient – it also means that the Strategic Suppliers are operating in an increasingly challenging environment. These firms cannot take their relationship with the public sector for granted and will have to continue to evolve their strategies and to improve their execution in order to defend – let alone build on – their strong market position. * For more info on who the Strategic Suppliers are, see Appendix 1 of this report. Strategic Suppliers Update . More than half of public sector spend on Strategic Suppliers goes to construction and engineering firms Market intel: Who are your competitors top public sector Central and Local Government authorities spent more than £10bn on the Strategic Suppliers in the last financial year customers? alone. The majority of spend went on suppliers in the construction and engineering industries – the same as was spent on IT, outsourcing, consulting and telecoms combined. In contrast to other sectors, spend on the major consulting firms is fairly evenly split amongst the firms. Construction/Engineering IT Telecoms Public sector spend on the Strategic Suppliers in 2018/19 Consulting Outsourcing/Facilities Engie £428M Kier Capita Fujitsu Capgemini £1,332M Babcock KBR £783M £418M £362M £707M £627M Serco £280M G4S £145M Oracle Atos DXC £89M £346M Amey Technology £920M £213M Accenture £89M Mitie £96M Interserve Jacobs IBM ISS A/S £233M CGI £64M £551M £456M Sopra Steria £59M Microsoft Sodexo £84M £28M £82M PwC EY Balfour Beatty Vodafone £100M £82M £841M BT Motorola £156M £308M £293M Mott Macdonald Atkins KPMG Deloitte £157M £90M £86M Virgin Media £74M £44M Strategic Suppliers Update Page 1 Strategic Suppliers' dominance waning Market intel: Who is winning (and losing) from this erosion in Last year the Strategic Suppliers won contracts worth £8.3bn - over £1bn more than in the year prior. Despite this, market share? faster growth in the value of contracts awarded to all other suppliers meant that their overall market share actually shrank by 15% year-on-year - down from a high of 14.4% in 2015/16 to 10.2% in 2o18/19. Year-on-year market share of the Strategic Suppliers since April 2015 by proportion of total public sector contract award value £81.7B £80B £70B £63.2B £59.8B £60B £56.4B £50B £40B Award Value Award £30B £20B £10B £8.1B £6.5B £7.2B £8.3B £0B 14.4% 10.3% 12.0% 10.2% FY 15/16 FY 16/17 FY 17/18 FY 18/19 Strategic Suppliers Update Page 2 Companies adopting diverse public sector strategies Market intel: How exposed are your competitors to If it’s safe to say the government is actively managing its over-reliance on the Strategic Suppliers, then it appears that the individual contracts? companies are adapting to this environment in different ways. Some companies focus on large cornerstone contracts, while others build a portfolio of smaller pieces of work. Strategic Supplier average and total contract award value and total award volume in 2018/19 Strategic Suppliers (sectors) Strategic Suppliers Balfour Beatty Amey Interserve Jacobs Construction/Engineering Kier Babcock Mott Macdonald Atkins KBR Serco Mitie Sodexo Outsourcing/Facilities At £16.5m, Mitie’s average Engie contract size was 7x as high G4S ISS A/S as G4S Sopra Steria Atos Capita won nearly 200 DXC Technology contracts last year - the firm is Fujitsu clearly taking a broad Accenture Sopra Steria won contracts approach to its contract footprint, in sharp contrast to IT Capgemini worth a similar amount to CGI Accenture, but the average other firms it is often grouped Capita value of its contracts was 2x with such as Serco Microsoft as high - showing it is more IBM focused on large Oracle programmes of work Deloitte EY Consulting PwC KPMG BT Vodafone Telecoms Virgin Media Motorola £0M £20M £40M £60M £80M £500.0M £1,000.0M £1,500.0M £2,000.0M 0 50 100 150 200 Avg. Award Value Award Value Award Volume * Rail franchise contracts have been excluded from this report, but it should be noted that last financial year Amey, through a joint venture with Keolis, won a £5bn rail franchise contract to manage the Welsh Borders trains. Strategic Suppliers Update Page 3 Wide disparities in customer concentration Market intel: How does your go-to-market strategy compare Following on from the point above, it’s interesting to note the wide disparities in customer concentration - even within the to your competitors'? same sector. Strategic Suppliers in the Telecoms sector, for example, have a large number of smaller public sector clients (with the exception of Motorola), while companies in the IT sector have much higher customer concentration (with the exception of Capita). Strategic Supplier - customer concentration (total spend vs. distinct buyers) in 2018/19 £1.4B Construction/Engineering Consulting Kier IT £1.2B Outsourcing/Facilities Telecoms Motorola is the only major £1.0B telecoms provider working with a small number of Although most of the buyers - its public sector consulting firms are pulling in fairly similar revenues, telecoms work mostly Amey revolves around its KPMG, PwC and EY are doing this through work £0.8B management of the Public Balfour Beatty Services Network (PSN), the with many buyers, in stark Atkins works with more buyers than any of the emergency services contrast to Accenture and Capita other engineering or communications to a lesser extent, Deloitte. Babcock construction firms, though Total Spend Total programme. £0.6B Mott Macdonald does KBR come in close behind, and with a higher public sector Interserve revenue. £0.4B Jacobs Fujitsu Engie Average: £312M Capgemini Atos Motorola BT Serco £0.2B IBM G4S DXC Technology PwC Mott Macdonald Accenture Deloitte Vodafone Mitie Sodexo EY Atkins CGI Virgin Media £0.0B Sopra Steria ISS A/S Microsoft Average:Average 64 KPMG Oracle 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 Distinct Buyers Strategic Suppliers Update Page 4 75% of all Central Government spend came from just four departments Market intel: Which suppliers would be most exposed to a Just four department (and their arms lengths bodies) are responsible for 75% of all Central Government spending on post-election reallocation of the Strategic Suppliers - MoD, DfT, Home Office and the DWP. These four departments spent £5.7bn on these firms in departmental budgets? 2018/19. Cuts in defence spending, or the cancellation of HS2, would have a major impact on suppliers reliant on the MoD and DfT respectively. 2018/19 spend on the Strategic Suppliers by Central Government department - absolute and running total £8B £8B £7.6B (99%) £7.6B (100%) £7.7B (100%) £7.7B (100%) £7.3B (95%) £7.6B (100%) £7.6B (100%) £7.7B (100%) £7.0B (91%) £7B £7B £6.7B (87%) £6.3B (82%) £6B £5.7B (74%) £6B £5.0B (65%) £5B £5B £4.2B (55%) £4B £4B Total Spend Total £3B £3B Spend Total of Sum Running £2.5B (33%) £2B £1,709M £2B £1B £749M £1B £716M £580M £383M £307M £177M £164M £144M £108M £0B £63M £11M £10M £7M £6M £1M £0B MoD DfT Home DWP HMRC MoJ DfE DFID DEFRA FCO DHSC Cabinet MHCLG DIT HM BEIS DExEU Office Office Treasury Strategic Suppliers Update Page 5 Missed opportunities in Local Government Market intel: Are there attractive adjacent markets Last year only six Strategic Suppliers earned more public sector revenue from Local Government than from Central - that your business could most notably Engie, for whom revenue from Local Government was 16x that of Central.
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