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Podsumowanie Przemian Polityczno-Gospodarczych W P I E Rwszej Kadencji W∏Adimira Putina / 5 Jadwiga Rogo˝A, Iwona Wiêniewska

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Podsumowanie Przemian Polityczno-Gospodarczych W P I E Rwszej Kadencji W∏Adimira Putina / 5 Jadwiga Rogo˝A, Iwona Wiêniewska O R O D E K ST U D I Ó W WS C H O D N I C H Centre for Eastern Studies Prace OSW / CES Studies PodsumowanieP przemianR A polityczno-gospodarczych C E w p i e rwszej kadencji W¸adimira Putina A summary of the politico-economic changes takingOS place during VladimirW Putin’s first term of office CCzeczenia E a Rosja:S znaczenie kwestiiS TczeczeÄskiej U D I dla E wspó¸czesnejS Ro s j i Chechnya and Russia: The significance of the Chechen problem for contemporary Ru s s i a n u m e r 11 W a r s z a w a sierpieÄ 2003 / W a r s a w August 2003 © Copyright by OÊrodek Studiów Wschodnich © Copyright by Centre for Eastern Studies Redaktor serii / Series editor Anna ¸abuszewska Opracowanie graficzne / Graphic design Dorota Nowacka T¸umaczenie / Translation Izabela Zygmunt, Anna Wielopolska Wydawca / Publisher OÊrodek Studiów Wschodnich Centre for Eastern Studies ul. Koszykowa 6 a Warszawa / Warsaw, Poland tel./phone + 48 /22/ 525 80 00 fax: +48 /22/ 629 87 99 Seria „Prace OSW” zawiera materia¸y analityczne przygotowane w OÊrodku Studiów Wschodnich The “CES Studies” series contains analytical materials prepared at the Centre for Eastern Studies Materia¸y analityczne OSW mo˝na przeczytaç na stronie www.osw.waw.pl Tam równie˝ znaleêç mo˝na wi´cej informacji o OÊrodku Studiów Wschodnich The Centre’s analytical materials can be found on the Internet at www. osw.waw.pl More information about the Centre for Eastern Studies is available at the same web address ISSN 1642-4484 Spis treÊci / Contents Podsumowanie przemian polityczno-gospodarczych w p i e rwszej kadencji W¸adimira Putina / 5 Jadwiga Rogo˝a, Iwona WiÊniewska Czeczenia a Rosja: znaczenie kwestii czeczeÄskiej dla wspó¸czesnej Rosji / 25 Maciej Fa l k o w s k i A summary of the politico-economic changes taking place during Vladimir Putin’s first term of office / 45 Jadwiga Rogo˝a, Iwona WiÊniewska Chechnya and Russia: The significance of the Chechen problem for contemporary Russia / 65 Maciej Fa l k o w s k i Te z y 1. Najwa˝niejszym dokonaniem ekipy W∏adimi- ra Putina w ciàgu trzech lat jego kadencji jest zrealizowanie zmian legislacyjnych, które mogà stanowiç baz´ dla dalszych – bardziej szczegó∏o- wych Ð reform politycznych i gospodarczych. Jest to w pewnym stopniu powrót do zadaƒ go- spodarczych wytyczonych przez ekip« reforma- t o rów na poczàtku lat 90. Konflikty Kre m l a z w∏adzà ustawodawczà uniemo˝liwi∏y wów- czas ich realizacj«. 2. Wprowadzane za kadencji Putina reformy po- Podsumowanie prz e m i a n lityczne zmierza¸y przede wszystkim do zwi«k- szenia kontroli Kremla nad ˝yciem spo∏eczno- p o l i t y c z n o - g o s p o d a r c z y c h -politycznym w Rosji. Cel ten zosta¸ w du˝ej mie- rze zrealizowany. W efekcie z jednej strony do- sz¸o do wzrostu autorytetu i pozycji oÊrodka w p i e rwszej kadencji prezydenckiego, z drugiej Ð do autorytaryzacji W¸adimira Putina systemu politycznego w Rosji. 3. W sferze gospodarczej w ciàgu ostatnich Jadwiga Rogo˝a, trzech i pó∏ roku uda∏o si´ m.in. przeprowadziç reform´ ziemskà (dopuszczajàcà do obrotu zie- Iwona WiÊniewska mià w Federacji Rosyjskiej), zmiany w sferze bu- d˝etowo-fiskalnej, w systemie emerytalnym. Ro- sja zosta∏a skreÊlona z czarnej listy FATF i otrzy- ma¸a status gospodarki rynkowej przyznany jej przez UE i USA. RównoczeÊnie jednak naciski ró˝nych, przeciwnych reformom, grup z otocze- nia prezydenta, a tak˝e elit biznesowych i regio- nalnych sprawi∏y, ˝e ju˝ na etapie formu∏owania bazy prawnej reformatorskie projekty cz«sto traci∏y swój liberalny wydêwi´k i radykalizm. Z tego mi´dzy innymi powodu przemiany, które zainicjowano w niemal wszystkich sferach ro- syjskiej gospodarki, w wielu przypadkach okaza- ¸y si« niekonsekwentne i po¸owiczne. Problemy z ich wdra˝aniem oraz powolne tempo reform strukturalnych nie pozwoli¸o na wzmocnienie sektorów niesurowcowych i na uniezale˝nianie si« gospodarki Rosji od koniunktury na rynkach zagranicznych. G∏ówne cele re f o r m a t o r s k i e g o projektu gospodarczego prezydenta Putina nie zosta¸y wi«c zrealizowane. 4. Szczególnie istotne znaczenie dla obecnej sy- tuacji w Rosji mia∏y tak˝e zmiany pozalegislacyj- ne podejmowane przez oÊrodek prezydencki. P r a c e O S W Zmiany te nie mia∏y pod∏o˝a prawnego i wynika- W s t « p ¸y z nieformalnych dzia¸aÄ podejmowanych lub inspirowanych przez w¸adze. Na skutek tych dzia¸aÄ prezydent uzyska¸ lojalnà wi«kszoÊç Po dojÊciu do w∏adzy w 2000 r. W¸adimir Putin w parlamencie, doprowadzi¸ do wzrostu roli przedstawi∏ ca∏oÊciowy program spo∏eczno-eko- s∏u˝b specjalnych w paƒstwie, jednoczeÊnie od- nomicznego rozwoju Rosji do 2010 r.1 Przygoto- bierajàc wielkiemu biznesowi bezpoÊre d n i waniem tego programu zajà∏ si´ zespó∏ eksper- wp¸yw na decyzje polityczne Kremla. Zmiany tów ekonomicznych z Centrum Studiów Strate- pozalegislacyjne doprowadzi∏y równie˝ do ogra- gicznych (CSS) 2 pracujàcy pod przewodnictwem niczenia wolnoÊci s∏owa i pluralizmu informa- petersburczyka Germana Grefa. Mimo i˝ opraco- cyjnego w Rosji. wany przez ekspertów dokument nigdy nie zo- sta¸ przyj«ty w ca¸oÊci, a ty l k o zatwierdzono jego 5. Wydaje si«, i˝ proces reform zainicjowany g¸ówne za¸o˝enia, to jednak od 2000 r. krót k o- przez prezydenta Putina nadal zale˝y przede i Êre d n i o o k r esowe programy spo¸eczno-g o s p o d a r - wszystkim od wsparcia ze strony oÊrodka prez y - cze rzàdu powstawa¸y w op a r ciu o jego za¸o˝enia. de n c k i e g o . Z tego wzgl«du kontynuacja ref o r m w kolejnych latach b«dzie ÊciÊle zwiàzana z po z y - Âredniookresowym celem opracowanej strategii cjà Putina po prawdopodobnej reelekcji w ma rc u rozwoju Rosji do 2010 r. mia∏o byç przeciwdzia- 2004 roku i jego politycznà determinacjà kon t y - ∏anie pog∏´bianiu si´ przepaÊci mi´dzy Rosjà nuowania zmian. Obok czynników wewn«trz- i paƒstwami rozwini´tymi, zaÊ w d¸ugotermino- nych kluczowe znaczenie dla procesu reform b«- wej Ð odtworzenie i umocnienie pozycji Rosji ja- dà mia¸y ceny ropy naftowej na rynku Êwiato- ko jednego z liderów Êwiatowego wzrostu3. Tym wym. Takie uzale˝nienie ogranicza szanse Ros j i celom s∏u˝yç mia∏y reformy systemu w∏adzy na realnà modernizacj« w najbli˝szych latach. w Rosji, polityki spo¸ecznej oraz modernizacja gospodarki. Celem niniejszego opracowania jest opis i anali- za reform politycznych oraz spo¸eczno-gospo- darczych, a tak˝e zmian pozalegislacyjnych pod- j«tych w okresie prezydentury W¸adimira Puti- na. Najprawdopodobniej przez pó∏rocze, jakie pozostaje do wyborów prezydenckich, nowe dzia∏ania reformatorskie nie b´dà inicjowane. Dlatego ju˝ teraz mo˝na podsumowaç zmiany, jakie dokona¸y si« w polityce, gospodarce oraz sferze spo¸ecznej w pierwszej kadencji prezy- denta Putina. W cz´Êci poczàtkowej tekstu zamieszczono opis reform politycznych oraz gospodarczych, a tak˝e zmian nie majàcych pod∏o˝a legislacyjnego, któ- re dokona¸y si« w Federacji Rosyjskiej w ciàgu ostatnich trzech i pó∏ roku. W konkluzjach spró- bowano podsumowaç realne dokonania ekipy Putina oraz odpowiedzieç na pytanie o perspek- tywy procesu reform i czynniki decydujàce o je- go kszta¸cie. P r a c e O S W Reformy i z m i a n y Kolejne zapisy z pakietu reformy administracyj- nej wprowadza¸y mo˝liwoÊç odwo¸ywania Ð na podstawie wyroku sàdowego Ð przez prez y d e n t a Reformy realizowane w okresie prezydentury szefów regionów (wybieranych w wyborach po- W∏adimira Putina przebiega∏y na dwóch p∏asz- ws z e c h n y c h ) 6 i rozwiàzywania lokalnych parla- czyznach. me n t ó w . Gubernatorzy z kolei uzyskali prawo dy- Z jednej strony mieliÊmy do czynienia z reforma- misjonowania merów wi«kszych miast we w¸a- mi dokonywanymi na podstawie zmian legisla- sn y m regionie. Warto jednak zaznaczyç, i˝ przez cyjnych, przygotowywanych przez rzàd (strate- trzy lata, jakie min«¸y od przyj«cia reformy, gia Centrum Studiów Strategicznych) lub Admi- Kreml nie si´gnà∏ po ustalone wówczas mecha- nistracj« Prezydenta i uchwalane przez parla- nizmy dymisjonowania przywódców regional- ment. Dotyczy¸y one w pierwszym rz«dzie sfery nych. W kilku przypadkach usuni«cia guberna- gospodarki, ale tak˝e kwestii politycznych. Dzia- torów, do których dosz∏o w ostatnich latach, wy- ¸ania podejmowane w tych dziedzinach mia¸y korzystano mechanizmy nieformalne (szanta˝, na celu przede wszystkim wzmocnienie i centra- nominacja na inne stanowisko itp.). lizacj´ paƒstwa oraz wdra˝anie zmian o charak- terze rynkowym w rosyjskiej gospodarce. Latem 2000 roku parlament uchwali¸ ustaw« Z drugiej strony w Rosji zachodzi∏y tak˝e prze- przewidujàcà zmian´ trybu formowania izby obra˝enia, wynikajàce nie ze zmian legislacyj- wy˝szej rosyjskiego parlamentu – Rady Federa- nych, lecz z nieformalnych dzia¸aÄ podejmowa- cji. Zamiast zasiadajàcych w niej wczeÊniej nych lub inspirowanych przez w¸adze. Wi«k- z urz´du gubernatorów oraz przewodniczàcych szoÊç z nich mia¸a na celu zwi«kszenie kontroli lokalnych parlamentów, w sk¸ad izby obecnie w∏adz nad poszczególnymi oÊrodkami ˝ycia pu- wchodzà regionalni przedstawiciele w¸adzy blicznego (podmiotami ˝ycia politycznego i go- ustawodawczej i w¸adzy wykonawczej, nomino- spodarczego, mediami itd.). wani przez w¸adze regionu (gubernatora oraz parlament). Gubernatorzy, opuszczajàc Rad´ Fe- 1. Najwa˝niejsze reformy polityczne deracji, utracili immunitet oraz bezpoÊredni do- st«p do procesu stanowienia prawa i lobbowa- 1.1.
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