Cyclone Tauktae, May 2021 Table 1: Forecasted Impact1 on the States in the Next 48 Hours - Rainfall

Cyclone Tauktae, May 2021 Table 1: Forecasted impact1 on the States in the next 48 hours - Rainfall

State 15th May 16th May 17th May A depression over Lakshadweep area in the Arabian Sea on May 14, 2021 Lakshadweep Heavy to very heavy Heavy intensified into a Cyclonic Storm Tauktae (62-88 kmph) according to the IMD Islands (isolated) Bulletin on May 15, 2021 at 0530 hours IST. It is very likely to intensify further into a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm (VSCS) (119-165 kmph) during the next 24 Kerala Light to moderate; heavy to Heavy to very heavy hours and move north-westwards reaching Gujarat coast by early May 18, very heavy at few places (isolated) 2021. Karnataka Light to moderate; heavy to Heavy Being the first cyclone to impact India in 2021, this VSCS is expected to bring very heavy at few places; extremely heavy at isolated heavy rainfall and wind to all States and UTs in the western coast of India. places Table 1 & 2 provides a brief overview of the potential impacts over the several Gujarat Heavy to very heavy Heavy to very heavy; Heavy to Indian states in the next 48 hours. extremely heavy very heavy The major impact of the cyclonic system is expected across the western (isolated) coastline of India. Low lying areas of Lakshadweep Islands are anticipated to Goa Light to moderate; heavy to Heavy to very heavy remain inundated till May 16, 2021. very heavy at few places (isolated)

Flash floods and landslides are anticipated across the coastal districts of Kerala, Karnataka and Goa till May 16, 2021; and in Saurashtra and Kutch during May 18-19, owing to very heavy to extremely heavy rainfall brought on by the Table 2: Forecasted impact on the States in the next 48 hours - Wind system. State 15th May 16th May 17th May 18th May Additionally, very rough to high seas, squally weather and gale winds around Lakshadweep Squally wind Gale wind the system centre will affect shipping vessels and fishing operations. Warnings Islands speed reaching speed (70 – for thunder squalls and lightning, with possible adverse impacts to humans and 65-75 km 80 kmph) (gusting to 85 gusting to 90 livestock have also been issued. kmph) kmph

1 Spatial rainfall distribution: Isolated: <25%, A few: 26-50%, Many: 51-75%, Most: 76-100%; Rainfall amount (mm): Heavy rain: 64.5 – 115.5, Very heavy rain: 115.6 – 204.4, Extremely heavy rain: 204.5 or more

State 15th May 16th May 17th May 18th May Chellanam, a coastal village in Ernakulam district has been severely affected Kerala Squally wind due to incessant rains brought by the depression, coupled with sea-erosion. speed (50-60 Tidal waves up to 1 m have battered houses in along coastal stretches of kmph) gusting to 70 kmph Kadalundi, Koyilandi, Chellanam and Vypeen. Karnataka Squally wind With the country battling a second wave of Covid-19, and all these states under speed (50-60 kmph) gusting to strict lockdown like conditions for controlling the spread of the pandemic, 70 kmph along emergency response, rescue and relief are being conducted with due the coast precautions. Maharashtra Squally wind Gale winds speed (40-50 speed (60-70 The National Disaster Response Force (NDRF) has earmarked 53 teams to kmph) gusting to kmph) tackle possible after-effects of the anticipated cyclone. People and government 60 kmph gusting to 80 in India are at a war footing, battling climate extremes amidst the devastating kmph second wave of coronavirus. Gujarat Squally Gale winds speed wind speed  150-160 kmph (40-50 gusting to 175kmph kmph) along & off gusting to Saurashtra & Kutch 60 kmph coasts  120-150 kmph gusting to 165 kmph over Kutch, Porbandar, Junagarh and Jamnagar districts Goa Squally wind Gale winds speed (40-50 speed (60-70 kmph) gusting to kmph) 60 kmph gusting to 80 kmph

Figure 1: NDRF team deployed in Kerala taking utmost precautions amidst COVID conditions (Image Source: Google)

ANALYSIS

RMSI has analysed potential flood and wind impact due to Cyclone Tauktae (from May 14 to May 18, 2021), based on the IMD bulletin on May 14, 2021 at 1500 hours IST (for rainfall) and May 15, 2021 at 0530 hours IST (for wind). The following maps represent results of the analysis.

Figure 3: Estimated wind speeds for Cyclone Tauktae as per IMD bulletin on 14th May 1500 IST

Figure 2: Estimated wind speeds for Cyclone Tauktae as per IMD bulletin on 15th May 0530 IST

Figure 4: Estimated flood depths in Kerala due to Cyclone Tauktae th Figure 5: Estimated flood depths in Karnataka due to Cyclone Tauktae as per IMD Bulletin on 14 May 1500 IST as per IMD Bulletin on 14th May 1500 IST

Figure 6: Estimated flood depths in Goa due to Cyclone Tauktae as per IMD Bulletin on 14th May 1500 IST Figure 7: Estimated flood depths in Maharashtra due to Cyclone Tauktae as per IMD Bulletin on 14th May 1500 IST

According to a Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) Report ‘Assessment of Climate Change over the Indian Region’, observations indicate that frequency of extremely severe cyclonic storms (ESCS) over the Arabian Sea has increased during the post-monsoon seasons of 1998–2018. Most models are projecting a higher sea surface warming in the Arabian Sea than the Bay of Bengal. The report suggests that the rapid warming in the Arabian Sea can actively support cyclone formation. With implications on climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction, it is important to understand the changing nature of risk by commissioning scientific risk assessments.

Figure 8: Estimated flood depths in Gujarat due to Cyclone Tauktae as per IMD Bulletin on 14th May 1500 IST

DISCLAIMER : This report contains information generated through the analyses, and model predictions based on data provided by IMD and compiled using proprietary computer risk assessment technology of RMSI Pvt. Ltd. The technology and data used in providing this information is based on the scientific data, mathematical and empirical models, and encoded experience of scientists and specialists (including without limitation, earthquake engineers, wind engineers, structural engineers, geologists, seismologists, meteorologists, and geotechnical specialists). As with any model of physical systems, particularly those with low frequencies of occurrence and potentially high severity outcomes, the actual losses from catastrophic events may differ from the results of simulation analyses.

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