Estudios Estratégicos Para El Desarrollo Territorial De La Región Vaca Muerta Segunda Etapa

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Estudios Estratégicos Para El Desarrollo Territorial De La Región Vaca Muerta Segunda Etapa PROGRAMA DE FORTALECIMIENTO INSTITUCIONAL DE LA SUBSECRETARÍA DE PLANIFICACIÓN TERRITORIAL DE LA INVERSIÓN PÚBLICA ESTUDIOS ESTRATÉGICOS PARA EL DESARROLLO TERRITORIAL DE LA REGIÓN VACA MUERTA SEGUNDA ETAPA INFORME FINAL – TOMO 1 NOVIEMBRE 2015 Estudios Estratégicos para el Desarrollo Territorial de la Región Vaca Muerta. Segunda Etapa- Informe Final Esta publicación es resultado de los trabajos realizados dentro de los Estudios Estratégicos para el Desarrollo Territorial de la Región Vaca Muerta ‐financiados por CAF, Banco de Desarrollo de América Latina‐ en el marco del Programa de Fortalecimiento Institucional de la Subsecretaría de Planificación Territorial de la Inversión Pública. Estudios Estratégicos para el Desarrollo Territorial de la Región Vaca Muerta. Segunda Etapa- Informe Final AUTORIDADES NACIONALES Subsecretaria de Planificación Territorial de la Inversión Pública de la Nación Arq. Graciela Oporto Directora Nacional de Planificación Estratégica Territorial de la Nación Arq. Marta Aguilar Dirección Estudios Estratégicos para el Desarrollo Territorial de la Región Vaca Muerta – Segunda Etapa Comisión Regional Norpatagónica AUTORIDADES PROVINCIALES Director de Planificación para el Desarrollo Territorial - Provincia de La Pampa CPN. Fabio Grandón Presidente de la Agencia de Ordenamiento Territorial - Provincia de Mendoza Arq. Sonia Romero Subsecretario de Planificación y Acción para el Desarrollo - COPADE - Provincia de Neuquén Lic. Sebastián González Secretaria de Planificación - Provincia de Río Negro Arq. Laura Perilli SUBSECRETARÍA DE PLANIFICACIÓN TERRITORIAL DE LA INVERSIÓN PÚBLICA Secretaría permanente COFEPLAN Dr. Luis Balestri Estudios Estratégicos para el Desarrollo Territorial de la Región Vaca Muerta. Segunda Etapa- Informe Final EQUIPO DE TRABAJO Representantes Técnicos de la Comisión Subsecretaría de Planificación Territorial Regional Norpatagónica de la Inversión Pública Dirección de Planificación para el Coordinación Interinstitucional Desarrollo Territorial - Provincia de La Arq. Olaf Jovanovich Pampa Arq. Alejandra Wagner Arq. Iñaki Insausti Componentes 7 y 8 Presidente de la Agencia de Arq. Alejandra Wagner Ordenamiento Territorial - Provincia de Arq. Carlos Verdecchia Mendoza Urb. Laura Marcos Arq. Sonia Romero Lic. Mariana Campi Coordinación Provincial de Planificación Componentes 9 y 10 Territorial - COPADE - Provincia de Dr. Hernán Petrelli Dra. Marian Santos Neuquén Lic. Ana Servidio Secretaría de Planificación - Provincia de Río Negro CPN Ignacio Armidas EQUIPO TÉCNICO Coordinador Técnico Arq. David Kullock Componentes 1 a 12 Arq. Nilda Pierro Lic. Natalia Neri Componentes 1 y 2 Lic. Germán Hazaña Lic. Carolina Constanzo Caso Componentes 3 y 4 Arq. Hugo Bersanker Ing. Luis Scaglia Componentes 5 y 6 Arq. Artemio Abba Ing. Ignacio Tomasevich Estudios Estratégicos para el Desarrollo Territorial de la Región Vaca Muerta. Segunda Etapa- Informe Final Sumario Página Tomo 1 1. Introducción 1 1.1. Antecedentes del estudio 1 1.2. Objetivos del estudio 3 2. Area de Estudio: Región Vaca Muerta - RVM 4 2.1. Delimitación del Area de Estudio 4 2.2. Caracterización del medio natural 7 2.3. Proceso histórico de ocupación 10 2.4. Situación de poblamiento actual 14 3. El Fenómeno del Shale 20 3.1. La conformación de los hidrocarburos 20 3.2. El proceso de explotación 21 3.3. La Cuenca Neuquina y el yacimiento Vaca Muerta 25 3.4. Importancia del yacimiento Vaca Muerta 30 4. Diagnóstico de Situación de la RVM 33 4.1. Estructura Territorial 33 4.1.1. Centros urbanos 33 4.1.2. Sistemas de transporte 53 4.1.3. Estructura territorial 64 4.2. Estructura Productiva 76 4.2.1. Estructura productiva por Provincia 76 4.2.2. Actividades significativas 98 4.2.3. Conflicto entre actividades hidrocarburíferas y frutihortícolas 111 4.3. Hábitat Urbano 117 4.3.1. Situación habitacional 117 4.3.2. Equipamientos urbanos 121 4.3.3. Infraestructura de servicios 128 4.4. Formas y Dinámicas de Urbanización 142 4.4.1. Problemas y potencialidades 143 4.4.2. Mercado de suelo 145 4.4.3. Análisis de casos 148 4.5. Régimen Legal-Institucional 182 4.5.1. Provincia de Neuquén 183 Estudios Estratégicos para el Desarrollo Territorial de la Región Vaca Muerta. Segunda Etapa- Informe Final 4.5.2. Provincia de Río Negro 185 4.5.3. Provincia de La Pampa 188 4.5.3. Provincia de Mendoza 190 4.6. Síntesis Diagnóstica 200 Tomo 2 5. Hipótesis de Crecimiento y Modelo de Distribución Poblacional 205 5.1. Factibilidad de explotación del shale de Vaca Muerta 205 5.2. Hipótesis de desarrollo de actividades y población 209 5.3. Estimaciones de desarrollo por Ondas de Crecimiento 215 5.4. Estimaciones de desarrollo poblacional por Ondas y por Localidad 217 6. Escenarios y Recomendaciones 229 6.1. Estructura territorial: hábitat urbano, actividades productivas y movilidad regional 229 6.1.1. Hábitat urbano 229 6.1.2. Promoción de las actividades productivas 260 6.1.3. Promoción de la movilidad regional 265 6.1.4. Estructura territorial propuesta 275 6.2. Modelo de Gestión: Dispositivos Técnico Normativos 277 6.2.1. Plan Urbano 278 6.2.2. Dispositivos de gestión urbanística 279 6.2.3. Dispositivos de gestión económica 283 6.2.4. Dispositivos de monitoreo 286 6.2.5. Criterios de articulación institucional 287 7. Reflexiones Finales 292 7.1. Principales restricciones 293 7.2. Desafíos más significativos 296 7.3. Concepciones rectoras 298 Estudios Estratégicos para el Desarrollo Territorial de la Región Vaca Muerta. Segunda Etapa Informe Final – Coordinación Técnica 1. INTRODUCCION 1. 1. Antecedentes del estudio La razón de ser del presente estudio fue la puesta en explotación del Yacimiento Vaca Muerta. Dicho yacimiento, cuya existencia era conocida desde hace un siglo, reúne condiciones excepcionales de extensión y espesor pero, si bien se conocía su riqueza, recién en la presente década, a partir de la puesta a punto de tecnologías no convencionales (TNC), denominadas “fracking” o fracturación hidráulica, se puso en marcha su explotación con resultados exitosos. En los últimos 3 años, ello ha implicado la concurrencia, el interés, la gestión y concreción de contratos con empresas petrolíferas de primera línea a nivel mundial. A su vez, las primeras operaciones (Loma La Lata y Loma Campana) han ocasionado un incremento demográfico de orden geométrico, tanto en la cantidad de habitantes de las zonas más inmediatas (entorno de la localidad de Añelo), como en la cantidad de desplazamientos de personas y de cargas en las vías de comunicación que vinculan dicha zona, los centros de referencia (la ciudad de Neuquén, especialmente) y los puntos de origen de los insumos requeridos (la arena, en especial). La región está en el foco del interés nacional e internacional e incluye las áreas en las que se están realizando y se proyectan las explotaciones no convencionales de hidrocarburos que son clave para la recuperación del autoabastecimiento energético. La exploración y explotación de estos yacimientos implicará un gran crecimiento demográfico en la región, acentuando el proceso que ya se viene dando en los últimos años. Además de las consecuencias sobre la situación demográfica, se prevén grandes transformaciones económicas y sociales que impactarán en la región, que es necesario delimitar, estimar y proyectar adecuadamente. Se presenta así un gran desafío a las localidades involucradas, a las provincias implicadas y a la Nación: definir y abordar claras estrategias territoriales integrales, referidas a la diversificación económica productiva, al desarrollo de infraestructura social y comunitaria que acompañe el crecimiento poblacional y al desarrollo de servicios que permitan mejorar la calidad de vida de los habitantes, y generar condiciones propicias para el desarrollo de inversiones privadas, no sólo en lo energético. Primera Etapa de los Estudios Dada la magnitud de las transformaciones y la incertidumbre sobre el futuro del fenómeno, la Provincia de Neuquén solicitó asistencia técnica a la Subsecretaría de Planificación Territorial de la Inversión Pública de la Nación (SSPTIP, Ministerio de Planificación Federal, Inversión Pública y Servicios) que, con financiamiento del Banco de Desarrollo de América Latina (CAF), brindó apoyo técnico para la formulación de una Primera Etapa de Estudios Estratégicos para el Desarrollo Territorial de la Región Vaca Muerta, la que fue desarrollada durante el año 2014 y se abocó a identificar las transformaciones sociales, productivas y territoriales previsibles a partir de la dinámica de las nuevas formas y escalas de explotación hidrocarburífera. El primer estudio asumió como Área de Estudio (AE) al cuadrante noreste de la Provincia, delimitado por la RN 40 al oeste y la RN 22 al sur e incluyó los siguientes contenidos: La caracterización de la actividad hidrocarburífera, su importancia y sus probables impactos 1 Estudios Estratégicos para el Desarrollo Territorial de la Región Vaca Muerta. Segunda Etapa Informe Final – Coordinación Técnica La caracterización y diagnóstico del AE; con especial énfasis en su Estructura Territorial, su Hábitat Urbano y su Estructura Productiva, caracterizada por la predominancia de las actividades petrolíferas y la competitividad que establecen con la frutihorticultura, en especial. La prospección sobre la evolución socio‐territorial que el desarrollo del fracking podría producir, a cuyos efectos de elaboró un modelo de estimación del incremento poblacional según 3 escenarios de desarrollo y un modelo de distribución de la población, según tres factores de atracción (cercanía al lugar
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