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The Resiliency Compass: Navigating Global Value Chain Disruption in an Age of Uncertainty

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In Collaboration with Kearney The Resiliency Compass: Navigating Global Value Chain Disruption in an Age of Uncertainty WHITE PAPER JULY 2021 Images: Getty Images, Unsplash Contents Foreword 3 Executive summary 4 1 Disruption drives a rethink 5 2 Resilience in action 8 2.1 Getting to grips with disruption 8 2.2 Introducing the resiliency compass 8 2.3 Who are the resilience leaders? 10 3 Setting the right course with the resiliency compass 11 4 Call for action: global coordination for the long term 14 Methodology 15 Contributors 16 Acknowledgements 17 Endnotes 19 © 2021 World Economic Forum. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, including photocopying and recording, or by any information storage and retrieval system. The Resiliency Compass: Navigating Global Value Chain Disruption in an Age of Uncertainty 2 July 2021 The Resiliency Compass: Navigating Global Value Chain Disruption in an Age of Uncertainty Foreword Unlocking the future of cooperation, resilience and prosperity for global value chains. Francisco Betti Per Kristian Hong Head of Shaping the Future of Managing Director and Advanced Manufacturing and Partner, Strategic Operations Production, Member of the and World Economic Forum Executive Committee, World Relationship Lead, Kearney Economic Forum COVID-19 has kept manufacturing companies systems if both the global economy and companies beyond busy for many months and the challenges are to successfully navigate future disruptions that are far from over, from ensuring safety and may affect global value chains. security on the shop floor and facing supply and demand disruptions to accelerating digital In 2020, the World Economic Forum, in transformation and reskilling to build resilience. collaboration with Kearney, mobilized the global At the same time, the pandemic has highlighted manufacturing community to identify the best the unique ability of the global population to make responses to the COVID-19 pandemic and to radical behavioural changes, the extraordinary build resilience across manufacturing and supply power of collaboration to support those most systems through new business partnerships in need, and the crucial role of technology and public-private cooperation. Building on last and innovation to overcome challenges. year’s work, this new white paper summarizes the latest insights from a consultation conducted The future economic outlook is still uncertain and with over 400 senior executives responsible for we are likely to see an acceleration of some mega- operations and the supply chain, and government trends that will continue to threaten manufacturing representatives. By working closely with our and supply systems. Climate change, geopolitical global community, we developed the resiliency tensions and emerging Fourth Industrial Revolution compass, a unique framework aimed at enabling technologies are forcing companies to respond and organizations to identify priorities, manage risks continuously upgrade their contingency plans. and confidently define sustainable strategies to navigate disruption and uncertainty. Based on our recent survey, only 12% of companies are sufficiently protected against future We trust that this white paper provides a disruptions in supply chains and operations, with meaningful contribution and will inform discussions the remaining 88% urgently needing additional and decisions within the global manufacturing measures aimed at building resilience. Leaders from community which seek to increase resilience across the public and private sectors need to build across manufacturing and supply systems and on recent experience and stress-test production help to future-proof global value chains. The Resiliency Compass: Navigating Global Value Chain Disruption in an Age of Uncertainty 3 Executive summary Next generation operations and supply chain leaders will be defined by their ability to withstand and quickly adapt to increasingly disruptive headwinds. The resiliency compass provides a Recognizing this urgency, the World Economic unique framework to help organizations Forum, in collaboration with Kearney, surveyed identify priorities, manage risks and define more than 400 senior operations and supply chain sustainable strategies to navigate uncertainty executives and representatives from government and develop a competitive edge. and academia in an effort to draw lessons from the past 18 months and inform the development of The increasing frequency of supply-driven more resilient manufacturing and supply systems. disruptions – ranging from global pandemics and Building on the gathered data and working closely the climate crisis to cyber threats and geopolitical with a select group of organizations engaged in the tensions – combined with an ever-intensifying set World Economic Forum’s Platform for Shaping the of demand-driven disruptions – including the rise of Future of Advanced Manufacturing and Production, new consumer channels, pent-up demand and a we developed the resiliency compass. fragmented reopening of the global economy – will continue to destabilize global value chains. These The compass provides a new framework for both forces are too large, too grave and too urgent for public and private organizations to accelerate the any single entity to address alone. Instead, a greater resilience-building process and define the new sense of shared responsibility and collaboration priorities and actions needed to prepare for and is required for the global manufacturing respond to future disruption. The results of our community to successfully navigate the future. analyses using the compass framework show that only 12% of companies, the resilience leaders, are Companies are being forced to reconsider their sufficiently protected against future disruptions, global footprint, product portfolio and go-to- with the remaining 88% needing to take immediate market strategies, along with their approach to action to build resilience. planning, sourcing, production and distribution. Governments are having to redesign industrial Resilience leaders are at the forefront of digitization strategies and policy to boost recovery and redefine and the Fourth Industrial Revolution, enabled by competitiveness in a new, volatile global context. the availability of data across the entire value chain, The world is unpredictable and the future remains from their suppliers’ suppliers to their customers’ uncertain for all. customers. They are characterized by the following qualities, as identified through a parsing of executives’ Supply-chain resilience and a mindset of continuous responses to the aforementioned survey questions: adaptation are required to navigate near-term uncertainty and strengthen competitive advantages 1. Simplified product portfolio design. in the long term. The future of operations and 2. Smart customer orientation. supply chains will be defined by a shift from “just- 3. Financial visibility and agility. in-time” to “just-in-case”, driven by best-cost rather 4. Diversified customer distribution network. than lowest-cost thinking in order to mitigate risks. 5. Robust and transparent logistics. 6. Responsive manufacturing set-up. Although the COVID-19 pandemic accelerated 7. Strategic supplier relationships. innovation and strengthened cooperation to help 8. Advanced planning tools. stakeholders overcome unprecedented challenges, it is essential to step back and draw lessons The above dimensions of the resiliency compass learned, as they serve as a critical guidepost are the starting point to identify the systemic towards building long-term resilience. A constant challenges in global value chains that organizations iterative process is required to stay ahead and reach will face. Future analysis will leverage these new levels of agility for continuous adaptation, and dimensions to create archetypes for resiliency in develop a new, competitive edge to withstand a the face of disruption. In the coming months, we disruptive headwind, whatever its form. will continue to engage with leaders from business, government, academia, and civil society to build new partnerships and inform the development of new strategies for safeguarding the future of resilient global value chains. The Resiliency Compass: Navigating Global Value Chain Disruption in an Age of Uncertainty 4 1 Disruption drives a rethink Strategies employed by firms must adapt to an ever-changing world full of disruption. A confluence of economic, social, technological, In a previous study, Reshaping Global Value,1 the and environmental mega-trends is radically World Economic Forum and the United Nations reshaping global production and supply systems, Development Programme (UNDP), in collaboration forcing companies to reassess and redesign with Kearney, investigated the disruptive impact of their strategies in order to build resilience. These mega-trends on production systems. Projections dynamics, which are affecting global value chains across end-to-end value chains indicated a in terms of both supply and demand, are increasing maximum potential value loss of 40% at the the frequency and severity of disruptions, with lower end and potential gains of 70% at the important implications for manufacturing sectors upper end. The wide variance in these extremes and society as a whole. Moreover, the functionality demonstrates the need for companies to manage and reliability of value chains is becoming and capitalize on the forces impacting global value a national priority,
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