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Climate Engineering“ Lecture „Climate Engineering“ 1. Introduction Ulrich Platt Institut für Umweltphysik Lecture Program of „Climate Engineering Part 1: Introduction to the Climate System (4 sessions) 1. Introduction and scope of the lecture 2. The Climate System – Radiation Balance 3. Elements of the Climate System - Greenhouse Gases, Clouds, Aerosol 4. Dynamics of the Climate System - Sensitivity, Predictions Part 2: Climate Engineering Methods - Solar Radiation Management, SRM 1. SRM – Reflectors in space 2. SRM – Aerosol in the Stratosphere 3. SRM – Cloud Whitening 4. SRM – Anything else Part 3: Climate Engineering Methods – Carbon Dioxide Removal, CDR 1. Direct CO 2 removal from air 2. Alkalinity to the ocean (enhanced weathering) 3. Ocean fertilization 4. Removal of other greenhouse gases Part 4: CE – Effectiveness, Side Effects (3 sessions) 1. Comparison of Techniques, characterisation of side effects 2. Other parameters than temperature 3. Summary 2 Contents of Today's Lecture • Global Warming - „Climate Change“ • What is Climate Engineering • Why Climate Engineering? • Physics of Climate – which knobs to turn? • „Leverage“ of CE-Techniques • Techniques to influence the climate, examples • Even stranger ideas • Conclusion Literature Bodansky, D. (1996), 'May we Engineer the Climate?', Climatic Change 33 , 309-321. Boyd, P. W. (2008), 'Ranking geo-engineering schemes', Nature Geoscience 1, 722-724. Cicerone, R. J. (2006), Geoengineering: Encouraging research and overseeing implementation, National Academy of Sciences, Washington DC, chapter Climatic Change, pp. 221-226. Crutzen, P. J. (2006), 'Albedo Enhancement by Stratospheric Sulfur Injections: A Contribution to Resolve a Policy Dilemma?', Climatic Change 77(3-4), 211--220. Feichter, J. & Leisner, T. (2009), 'Climate engineering: A critical review of approaches to modify the global energy balance', The European Physical Journal - Special Topics 176(1), 81--92 Hegerl, G. C. & Solomon, S. (2009), 'Risks of Climate Engineering', Science 325, 955-956. IPCC Climate Change 2014 Synthesis Report: https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full.pdf Lamb, H. H. (1971), 'Climate-Engineering Schemes to meet a Climatic Emergency', Earth-Science Reviews 7, 87-95. Lenton, T. M. & Vaughan, N. E. (2009), 'The radiative forcing potential of different climate geoengineering options', Atmos. Chem. Phys. 9, 5539-5561. Robock, A. (2008), '20 reasons why geoengineeringmay be a bad idea', Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 64(2), 14-18. Society, The Royal (2009), Geoengineering the climate: Science, governance and uncertainty', Technical report, The Royal Society (RS Policy Document 10/09 ). Wood, L.; Hyde, R. & Teller, E. (1997), 'Global Warming and Ice Ages: I. Prospects for Physics-Based Modulation of Global Change'. Ross A & Matthews HD (2009) Climate engineering and the riskof rapid climate change. Environmental Research Letters 4, 045103 doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/4/4/045103 Web – Pages of Interest Heidelberg Marsilius Project on Climate Engineering: http://www.climate-engineering.uni-hd.de/projects/ Asilomar Conference on Climate Intervention Techniques: http://www.climateresponsefund.org/ Report: Climate Engineering Responses to Climate Emergencies: http://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/0907/0907.5140.pdf Report of the Britischen Royal Society on CE: http://royalsociety.org/policy/publications/2009/geoengineering-climate/ David Keith‘s Home Page: http://keith.seas.harvard.edu/ Alan Robock‘s Home Page: http://www.envsci.rutgers.edu/~robock/ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC: https://www.ipcc.ch/ YouTube CE-Playlist (CE-Related Video Clips): http://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLF8369A27273 314D8 Provided by: Andrew Lockley Interventions into the Climate System ? Assessing the Climate Editors: Engineering Debate Wilfried Rickels, Gernot Klepper, and Jonas Dovern Authors: Gregor Betz, Nadine Brachatzek, Sebastian Cacean, Kerstin Güssow, Jost Heintzenberg, Sylvia Hiller, Corinna Hoose, Gernot Klepper, Thomas Leisner, Andreas Oschlies, Ulrich Platt, Alexander Proelß, Ortwin Renn, Wilfried Rickels, Stefan Schäfer, Michael Zürn From the Preface: …. Climate engineering raises numerous questions of fundamental importance: Which proposals are scientifically realistic? Can they be technically implemented, and how effective are they likely to be? What interactions and side-effects (e.g., in the climate system) are to be expected? How far do the efficiency advantages of individual measures go in a comprehensive macro- economic consideration? Will climate engineering become an endurance test for society and international relations? Is selective intervention in the Earth system ethically acceptable or justifiable? … 2011 Dr. Georg Schütte State Secretary at the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) Climate Engineering (frequently also called „Geoengineering “) Intentional, large scale manipulation of the environment to counteract the unintended effects of anthropogenic climate change (D. Keith, 2000). Absichtliche, großskalige Manipulation der Umwelt, um unerwünschten Effekten des anthropogenen Klimawandels entgegenzuwirken (D. Keith, 2000) Questions: 1) Is it actually possible and (if yes) affordable? 2) If 1) should be true, should we actually do it? 3) What are the side effects? Geoengineering Blasphemous - How can we dare to interfere with nature (or God)? Hubris - How can we think that everything can be accomplished by technology? yet We are modifying our climate already – not intentionally though - e.g. by releasing greenhouse gases to the atmosphere The History of Weather Control http://www.terraforminginc.com/weather-control/ Modifying Weather and Climate? History of CE-Proposals (1) Source: Climate engineering, Technical status, future directions, and po tential responses Center for Science, Technology, and Engineering United States Government Accountability Office, GAO, July 2011, GAO-11-71 September 29, 1921: End Of Iceberg Menace! Nuke the Arctic Professor Julian Huxley. “Can We Atomize the Arctic?”, Jan. 1945 Wallace W. Ashley and Elmer V. Swan. According to them, Professor Julian Huxley had proposed the idea of using nuclear bombs to melt the polar ice caps. This would moderate our northern climate, eliminating pesky cold snaps and opening up shipping across the top of the world. History of CE-Proposals (2) Source: Climate engineering, Technical status, future directions, and potential responses, GAO, July 2011, GAO-11-71 History of CE-Proposals (3) Source: Climate engineering, Technical status, future directions, and potential responses, GAO, July 2011, GAO-11-71 The Atmospheric CO 2 – Mixing Ratio During the last 60 Years CO 2-fraction 2.4 ppm/Yr. in dry air, µmole/mole or ppm 400 380 360 340 320 Charles D. Keeling (1928-2005) 0.8 ppm/Yr. Scripps Mauna Loa, Hawaii, USA, 3397m a.s.l. Source: World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Cumulative Anthropogenic Carbon Emission to the Atmosphere 1850-2006 (in units of 10 9 tC) By 2011: 360 GtC equiv. to 1.3 10 22 J Heat Air by 3K Average Power: 510 -3W Source: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC.com) and values of atmospheric CO 2 concentrations from Mauna Loa, as well as other locations. Carbon emissions from land use change and deforestation not included. Global Annual Mean Surface Air Temperature Change Tropospheric aerosols mask warming (global dimming) Greenhouse gases dominate Recovery from volcanic eruptions dominates http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/Fig.A2.pdf The Challenge: Limit CO2-Growth Constant emissions at 2010 rate 33% of 2010 rate 10% of 2010 rate 0% of 2010 rate From: Klaus Lackner Will We Manage to Reduce CO2 – Emissions? Will We Manage to Reduce CO 2 – Emissions? Example: Germany Mt CO 2equiv. 100% Emission of greenhouse gases regulated by UNFCC -31% -40% -55% -70% -95% Radiative Climate Forcing Components Source: IPCC-AR5, Fig. SPM.5 Problem beyond Gradual Changes : „Tipping Elements“ Timothy M. Lenton, Hermann Held, Elmar Kriegler, Jim W. Hall, Wolfgang Lucht, Stefan Rahmstorf, and Hans Joachim Schellnhuber (2008), Tipping elements in the Earth’s climate system, PNAS 105(6), 1786–1793. Climate subsystems where anthropogenic climate forcing could cause threshold-type behavior. small perturbation at a critical point qualitatively alters the future fate of the system. They could be triggered this century and would undergo a qualitative change within this millennium. (“Tipping Elements” in colour, overlain on global population density) Climate Change – what to do? Mitigation (Abwendung ) Adaptation (Anpassung ) Rapid reduction of Relocate population, greenhouse gas emissions change structure of agriculture, higher levies... Climate Engineering Reduction of solar radiation, removal of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere, … From: nature reports climate change, Vol. 4, p. 5, Jan. 2010, Climate Engineering • Serious discussions since about the mid-1960ties (basic ideas shade sun, raise Earth‘s albedo) • Increasing number of publications since about 2006 • Today there are many proposed techniques, more and more problems are noticed Historical Background - “Can We Atomize the Arctic?”, Jan. 1945, Prof. Julian Huxley Idea of using nuclear bombs to melt the polar ice caps. This would moderate the northern climate, eliminating pesky cold snaps and opening up shipping across the top of the world. - Weather and precipitation control for commercial and military purposes (USA, UdSSR, China, 1950 ~ 1980) As our civilization steadily becomes more mechanized and as our population density
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