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RAISING the ALARM: the CULTURAL ORIGINS of CLIMATE 'DENIALISM' in AMERICA, 1970-1988 by Gabriel Henderson a DISSERTATION Su

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RAISING the ALARM: the CULTURAL ORIGINS of CLIMATE 'DENIALISM' in AMERICA, 1970-1988 by Gabriel Henderson a DISSERTATION Su RAISING THE ALARM: THE CULTURAL ORIGINS OF CLIMATE ‘DENIALISM’ IN AMERICA, 1970-1988 By Gabriel Henderson A DISSERTATION Submitted to Michigan State University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of History -- Doctor of Philosophy 2014 ABSTRACT RAISING THE ALARM: THE CULTURAL ORIGINS OF CLIMATE ‘DENIALISM’ IN AMERICA, 1970-1988 By Gabriel Henderson At the height of the environmental movement between the late 1960s and early 1970s, a cadre of elite American scientists sought to establish what they believed to be a middle ground between opposing perspectives of future environmental threats. On the one hand were those within the environmental movement who appeared to depict the future in exaggerated doom-and- gloom terms, when the existence of humanity itself seemed threatened by environmental degradation and abuse. On the other hand were pro-growth interest groups that dismissed environmental concerns and regulations because they appeared to indicate the government's encroachment on private markets. This political back and forth, at least according to those who perceived themselves as more rational and dispassionate within the scientific establishment, seemed overly adversarial and disruptive to the business of understanding and managing environmental threats. An examination of how and why they sought to position themselves between these two poles within the environmental movement serves as the basis for this dissertation. Considered scientific experts, these individuals -- S. Fred Singer, Helmut Landsberg, Philip Handler, Philip Abelson, Frank Press -- strongly believed in the importance of what sociologists of science call "organized skepticism," whereby scientific claims are validated by scientists prior to being released to the public. To protect the integrity of their position, they frequently leveled two kinds of criticism against those with whom they disagreed. The first criticism was direct toward those scientists whom they felt engaged in advocacy in that they used their scientific credentials to advocate for policy changes based on their own non-scientific value judgments. Advocacy, they argued, threatened the credibility and authority of the scientific community. Second, they reserved their most potent criticism for those whom they called prophets of doom -- individuals who appeared overly emotional and irrational in their imaginings of future catastrophe. This latter criticism was more serious because it suggested that scientists used the language of science to buttress their public claims while simultaneously avoiding or overlooking the technical uncertainties that could undermine their own authority. Additionally, the claims of so-called prophets of doom appeared to resemble the kinds of sensationalized claims that appeared in the media; without a proper appreciation for the uncertainties within one's public claims, some scientists could risk appearing as unprofessional headline seekers. Whether perceived as an advocate or a prophet of doom, scientists -- as argued by the aforementioned experts -- had an obligation to avoid inflaming pre-existing public anxieties about the future. Doing so, they believed, could minimize what they saw as a gradual undermining of public confidence in science to solve the nation's environmental problems. In sum, this dissertation does three things. First, it examines the disagreements scientists had regarding the assessment and public communication of environmental threats. Second, it explains what appears to be their underlying motivations. Third, it seeks to provide a possible foundation on which to understand why present debates over climate change often orbit around issues of proper scientific communication and public engagement. Ultimately, this dissertation examines how and why scientists spent a great deal of time negotiating the proper manner in which to 'go public' about the nature and urgency of environmental threats during the 1970s and early 1980s. Copyright by GABRIEL HENDERSON 2014 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Anyone who has ever written a dissertation knows that more than one person is involved in the process, ranging from archivists, librarians, professors, mentors, committees, organizations, friends and loved ones. I want to first extend my gratitude to my doctoral committee. My advisor, John Waller, and committee member David Bailey have been wonderful sources for critical feedback and direction. I am particularly thankful for John's early advice to pursue a history of climate change and his vigilant proofreading as this dissertation took shape. His commitment and enthusiasm provided on many occasions the crucial bit of reassurance to propel me forward. David has also been a wonderful person to work with because of his breadth of knowledge and charming appreciation for the historian's "project." He pushed me to think about the broader cultural implications of my research, and I think my dissertation is better for it. I also want to extend my appreciation to Mark Largent for meeting with me early on in my project and agreeing to serve on my committee. He showed me what it means to critically reflect not only about my research, but also about my goals and sensibilities as a historian. Jeff Andresen, as the Michigan state climatologist, generously provided his time and energy when I wanted to learn more about the science of meteorology and climate. His willingness to work with me on an independent research project was invaluable in understanding how climatologists think about the natural world. Looking back over the last five years, historian of science James Fleming has been a friend and mentor in my evolution as an early-scholar. Since 2009, when he invited me to attend my first history of climate science workshop at Colby College, Jim has been a wonderful source of both professional and personal advice and support. His stoic patience and understanding, combined with an earnest concern for my progress as a scholar, continues to provide the courage v to overcome my own frustrations and insecurities. A source of inspiration, Jim has provided a model of what it means to guide others. For that, I am eternally grateful. Without archivists, the great project of historical research is lost to the abyss of time. Elizabeth Novara, an archivist at the University of Maryland Archive, was a tremendous source of assistance and guidance during my visits to the Helmut Landsberg Papers early in my research. Kate Legg, archivist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, has become a friend and collaborator over the last two years, particularly when it came to deciphering the world of Boulder. David Hays, archivist at the University of Colorado-Boulder, provided a helpful hand and wonderful conversation. His willingness to talk with me over lunch on multiple occasions made my experience in Boulder that much more pleasant. Invaluable assistance has also been provided by Lisa Kemplin (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign), Janice Goldblum (National Academy of Sciences Archive), Hui Hua Chua (Michigan State University Library), James Herring (Jimmy Carter Library), Rodney Ross (National Archives), as well as archivists at the Smithsonian Air and Space Museum. I also want to acknowledge the incredible generosity of Gerald Barney in allowing me to use his personal collection of documents pertaining the Global 2000 Report. I can only imagine the significant amount of time and energy it took for him to organize and scan the thousands of documents necessary for my research. Gregory Good, Director of the History of Physics Center at the American Institute of Physics, made much of my research possible. His commitment to the history of science profoundly influenced my understanding of the field, and I especially appreciated his infectious laugh and courteous responsiveness to young scholars like myself. The AGU Grants-in-Aid program has been an invaluable resource, and will continue to be for years to come. vi To those who have provided their time in reviewing and contributing to my work, I want to extend a personal note of gratitude -- Roger Turner, Jacob Hamblin, Christine Root, Georgina Montgomery, Amanda Lewis, and Helen Veit were gracious enough to share their ideas and experiences on grant writing; Jason Friedman, Jim Porter, Marci Baranski, and James Bergman were brave enough to venture into the unknown reaches of my research ideas and provide invaluable feedback; Kaya Tolon provided me excellent background material for one of my dissertation chapters; Jenni Marlow generously notified me of an opportunity to work for the MSU Writing Center; Norman Canfield, Ferdinand Baer, John Gribbin, S. Fred Singer, Gus Speth, Eugene Rasmussen, Mike MacCracken, and Alan Robock contributed greatly to deciphering the culture and science of climate discussions during the 1970s and 80s, for which I am very grateful. I could not have done my research without the financial assistance of the American Geophysical Union, the American Meteorological Society, and the Department of History at Michigan State University. I wish to express my appreciation to Kristine Harper of the History of Geophysics Committee, Jean Phillips of the AMS History Committee, as well as to MSU faculty Walter Hawthorne and Pero Dagbovie for their support. The MSU Department staff, faculty, and students have provided a wonderfully place to explore history, and I can only hope that future historians of science can benefit from the opportunities I have been given. I am especially grateful for Peggy Medler, Kelli
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