Israel and the Middle East News Update

Tuesday, June 10

Headlines:  Likud's Rivlin Defeats Sheetrit, Will be Tenth President of Israel  Premier Raps 'Inexperienced' Lapid Over 'Reckless Peace Plan'  Intelligence Officer Warns of Hundreds of Rockets from Gaza at Tel Aviv  Rivals Hamas, Abbas in First Showdown in Gaza  Hamas: PA Forces Assault Protesters in Ramallah  Senator Menendez Vows Response from Congress to Palestinian Unity Gov’t  Israeli Spy General Says Iran Serious in Negotiations on Nuclear Deal  Meeting Privately with US, Iran Suggests More Time for Nuclear Talks

Commentary:

 Mako: “Countdown to End of Netanyahu Government Begins”  By Rina Matzliah  Ma’ariv: “Headache Number One”  By Ben Caspit

S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace 633 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, 5th Floor, Washington, DC 20004 www.centerpeace.org ● Yoni Komorov, Editor ● Nathaniel Sobel, Associate Editor

News Excerpts June 10, 2014 Ha’aretz Likud's Rivlin Defeats Sheetrit, Will be Tenth President of Israel Likud MK Reuven Rivlin will be the tenth president of Israel after he scored a victory over Hatnua MK Meir Sheetrit in the second round of voting at the Knesset on Tuesday. Rivlin received 63 votes in the second round, while Sheetrit received 53 votes. Rivlin, who won out in a field of five presidential candidates, will replace Peres in the position when the 90-year-old steps down on July 27 when his seven year term comes to a close. Sheetrit and Rivlin went to a second round runoff round after none of the candidates managed to get a majority 61 votes in the first round of voting on Tuesday. See also, "Right-winger Reuven Rivlin elected Israel's president" (Reuters) See also, "Peres, at 90, is ready to leave the Israeli Presidency, but not to retire" (New York Times)

Jerusalem Post Premier Raps 'Inexperienced' Lapid Over 'Reckless Peace Plan' Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu attacked his largest coalition partner, Finance Minister Yair Lapid, at his Likud Knesset faction on Monday, describing him as an inexperienced politician with a reckless peace plan. At the same time, he touted his own skills as the most responsible veteran diplomat to successfully navigate Israel through its current impasse with the Palestinians. “Someone who is inexperienced in diplomatic negotiations and security matters should not initiate a reckless plan whose results would be akin to those of [the 2005 Gaza] disengagement,” Netanyahu said. See also, "After failed peace talks, Israel divided" (Associated Press)

Yedioth Ahronoth Intelligence Officer Warns of Hundreds of Rockets from Gaza at Tel Aviv The number of rockets in Gaza that are capable of reaching Tel Aviv has multiplied by 20 since Operation Pillar of Defense, and today Hamas and Islamic Jihad in the Gaza Strip have 400 rockets that have a range of between 75 and 80 kilometers. This is the assessment of IDF intelligence officials. While it is true that the Egyptians have blocked the weapons tunnels from Gaza to Rafah, Hamas and Islamic Jihad have developed a local military industry in the Gaza Strip to manufacture the same long-range rockets [formerly smuggled in by tunnel]. See also, "Hamas calls on armed wing to kill soldiers and settlers" (Times of Israel)

Associated Press Rivals Hamas, Abbas in First Showdown in Gaza An argument over money set off the first serious dispute Monday between Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and the Islamic militant group Hamas since the long-time rivals formed a unity government a week ago. The standoff over salary payments for more than 40,000 government employees — hired by Hamas during its seven-year rule of the Gaza Strip — highlights the volatile nature of the relationship between Abbas and Hamas. Security forces loyal to Hamas have kept banks in Gaza closed since last week to pressure Abbas into paying the salaries of the ex-civil servants. See also, “Israel stops wealthy Palestinian mediator Masri from Gaza entry” (Bloomberg) 2

Ma’an Palestinian News Hamas: PA Forces Assault Protesters in Ramallah Palestinian Authority security forces "assaulted" Hamas-affiliated protesters in Ramallah Monday evening, the Islamist movement said. Hamas said it had organized a protest in support of hunger- striking Palestinian prisoners and that PA forces who were trying to prevent the rally assaulted Hamas leader Hassan Yousef, among other protesters. Additionally, three Palestinian journalists who were covering the rally were also targeted by PA forces. As the security forces attempted to disperse the rally, brawls broke out, leading to injuries among protesters.

Jerusalem Post Senator Menendez Vows Response from Congress to Palestinian Unity Gov’t "Severe consequences" await a unified Fatah-Hamas government, Senate Foreign Relations Committee chairman Robert Menendez warned on Monday, referring to the new Palestinian Authority as a "two-headed dragon" in violation of US aid requirements. "Palestinians must choose between peace with Israel as a Jewish state and a marriage with Hamas, a terrorist organization," Menendez (D-NJ) told a gathering of the American Jewish Committee in New Jersey, adding that the marriage "will have severe consequences." "US law is explicit on this," he added. "We will not provide assistance to a Palestinian government in which Hamas has a role and exercises 'undue influence.'”

Reuters Israeli Spy General Says Iran Serious in Negotiations on Nuclear Deal Iran is negotiating seriously on a deal to curb its disputed nuclear programme, a senior Israeli intelligence officer said on Monday in a shift of tone from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's scepticism. Brigadier-General Itai Brun, military intelligence's chief analyst, told a strategic forum that Iran was honouring a November interim agreement that Netanyahu had condemned as an "historic mistake" for easing sanctions on Israel's arch-enemy. "It is very possible that Iran and the world powers that are negotiating with it are moving toward the signing, sometime during the year, of a permanent nuclear deal," he told the annual Herzliya Conference near Tel Aviv.

Jerusalem Post Meeting Privately with US, Iran Suggests More Time for Nuclear Talks Senior American and Iranian officials spent over five hours together in private meetings in Geneva on Monday, jointly seeking a path forward in negotiations over Iran's nuclear program only six weeks before a self-imposed deadline on talks aimed at ending the crisis. At the bilateral meeting, and in quotes placed in state-run Iranian media, Islamic Republic officials suggested world powers may have "no choice" but to extend the negotiations past the July 20 deadline. Talks have stalled over specific Western requests of Iran to dismantle key components of its vast nuclear infrastructure.

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Mako – June 10, 2014 Countdown to End of Netanyahu Government Begins By Rina Matzliah  The stench that rose from the presidential elections has covered up the smell of looming general elections. The sense that the third Netanyahu government has begun the countdown to its dissolution does not necessarily stem from Finance Minister Yair Lapid’s speech at the Herzliya Conference on Sunday, which was a speech in which Lapid set red lines. More important is that Lapid, so it would seem, has come to realize that war on the Haredim is good for an election campaign, but it really is not quite enough for someone who is aiming to lead the country.  Lapid is trying to fix the mistake of making the “alliance of brothers,” in hope that it isn’t too late already. As noted, however, Lapid’s speech, like Amram Mitzna’s call on his fellow party members to quit the coalition, are only signs of the government’s instability.  Leaders of the centrist parties have been engaged in intensive political activity in the past number of weeks, and not only in an attempt to form a bloc that might defeat Netanyahu in the next elections. Let’s begin with the new alliance, the alliance between Lapid and Lieberman. People close to both men said that they had found a common language, and not only about matters of state and religion.  Lapid has been careful not to be identified with the Left. Anyone who has listened closely to Lieberman can hear that he has become more moderate. The two of them are supposed to meet in the center. As far as is known, they have no intention of running jointly in the next elections, but it could very well be that the alliance that Lapid and Lieberman are currently working on is an alliance for the day after, similar to the alliance of brothers he formed with Bennett, in hope that the new alliance [with Lieberman] will last longer.  There are other players in the political Center as well. It is clear that Tzipi Livni and Hatnua will not be able to run alone for fear that they might not cross the electoral threshold. Livni has been talking about cooperation with Lapid, Kahlon and Herzog. She has met and discussed this issue with all three. Livni is inclined towards Lapid and Yesh Atid, with a promise for cooperation with Lieberman in the future. Alternately, her fellow party member, Amir Peretz, has been pushing more in the direction of cooperation with the Labor Party. As such, it would not be unreasonable to envision a situation in which the partnership between Livni and Peretz might come to an end before the next elections, at which point they would each go their separate ways.  Livni, say her colleagues, cannot join the Labor Party, not even as a separate faction. While she has already made a significant shift in her positions [moving from the Likud toward the Left], the Labor Party is a red line she won’t cross. Alternately, it would be natural for Amir Peretz and Amram Mitzna to return to the post-Yachimovich Labor Party. The Labor Party under Yitzhak Herzog is more welcoming, sharing and accepting.  The new rising star, Moshe Kahlon, is the most courted man in politics today. Yair Lapid has held a series of meetings with him, as has Tzipi Livni. But Kahlon has different plans, and he wants to run alone. Kahlon would prefer six seats that are only his, over 12 seats that he can’t

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control absolutely. The former communications minister feels that he is a sufficiently powerful brand name that he has no need for partners. Kahlon is the only one who will be able to take a few seats away from the Likud and Shas, and to become a linchpin.  It is clear to anyone looking from the sidelines that the natural thing to do would be for the Center parties to unite into a single large bloc, but that is never going to happen, of course. Why? Because of inflated egos. Lapid, Herzog, Livni and Kahlon all want to be number one. However, the decision to raise the electoral threshold, as well as proposed legislation that would obligate the president to grant the task for forming the coalition government to the leader of the largest faction in the Knesset, might force the dear friends to swallow their pride and to make the necessary mergers.  And what about the right wing bloc? Traditionally, no one in the Likud runs against an incumbent prime minister. But that tradition might now come to an end in the next round. There are a number of people who want to run the Likud. Interior Minister Gidon Saar is one of them, and he has already begun flexing his muscles at Binyamin Netanyahu. Saar has recently begun to refrain from answering the telephone on the Sabbath. He is shomer shabbes, said his aides. That news was enough to make Netanyahu suspect that a secret alliance had been formed between Saar and the Haredim to topple him. Sometimes, even if you are paranoid, that doesn’t mean that no one is trying to topple you from power.

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Ma’ariv – June 10, 2014 Headache Number One By Ben Caspit  It will finally be over today. The MKs will elect citizen number one and we will be rid of headache number one that has been troubling the Israeli public in the last few weeks. It’s been a long time since so many egos, belonging to so many candidates, squabbled over a position that has almost no real authority. Seven set out (unofficially, Silvan Shalom didn’t manage to declare his candidacy), five reached the last lap. Of them, three are politicians and two are external candidates. Let’s start with them.  Dan Shechtman is not really in the race. He explained why at a press conference that he called in the Knesset. In an amazing display of naivete, Shechtman answer a question posed by Ma’ariv’s Arik Bender and admitted that if he were not elected president, he was definitely considering, given the public’s support he has received, forming a political party and heading it, or alternatively, joining forces with Moshe Kahlon. Now he wants them to vote for him. Shechtman will not be president, and if he forms a political party—he will be eaten alive before he can manage to draw up a platform.  True, we don’t have enough Shechtmans, and if there were another 1,000 like Shechtman, Israel would look a lot better. That does not mean that he cannot be a good politician or a good president. He would not be able to relay clever messages to Barack Obama, to get chummy with Francois Hollande, to confide a secret to Angela Merkel, to be the responsible adult in squabbles between Netanyahu and Lapid and Lieberman and Bennett and Livni (as necessary), to pick up the phone to call Fattah el-Sisi, or plot with King Abdullah. Politics is a profession, politics is an art that requires a certain minimum of qualities that Shechtman doesn’t have. That is to his credit. A president is a representative position, but it still has major weight in our constitutional system. It is a kind of system of checks and balances, it is a lightning rod, it is a wailing wall, it is about a lot of responsibility and a fair bit of skill.  The same thing is true, I think, for Judge Dorner. Add to this the odd fact that she did not bother to suspend herself from the position of president of the Israel Press Council during the period of the campaign. If she were a politician, and not a retired respected judge, she would have been torn to shreds.  We’re left with the trio: Ruby Rivlin, Dalia Itzik, Meir Sheetrit. All three have much to their credit. They are outstanding Israelis, seasoned politicians, each of them a success story in their own right. Rivlin and Itzik are true blue Jerusalemites. Shetrit comes from the periphery. Itzik, as I see it, has an inherent advantage of being a woman, because it is time for a woman president. Shetrit has the most experience—both in executive roles and in the security cabinet (Itzik was also in the security cabinet for a significant time). One major issue distinguishes between Itzik and Shetrit, on the one hand, and Rivlin, on the other, is the matter of the peace process, an issue that goes to our very soul. Rivlin is far to the right of the clear Israeli consensus, he is opposed to the two-state solution, he is an out and out supporter of the settlement enterprise on both sides of the separation fence. There are some MKs who say that even though this is not their view, this does not bother them. That is their prerogative. In any case, it seems to me that choosing one of them would not embarrass the State of Israel.

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 And in the meantime, in the real world: Avigdor Lieberman yesterday did his regular standup act, mocked the various plans (Bennett, Danny Dayan, Yair Lapid) recently presented, whereas Binyamin Netanyahu and Yair Lapid continued their battle, in a heavyweight class, that began two days ago with a surprising and pointed speech by Lapid, including a foreign policy plan (“separation”), plus a coalition threat, and plus and plus.  And then Netanyahu responded with a vicious kick below Lapid’s belt when he confronted him with statements made by the very same Lapid during his election campaign. Netanyahu talked about “experience” and “security,” his two main cards. Lapid hit back with a hook to Bibi’s lower jaw when his close associates said that Netanyahu’s “experience” had so far not gotten them anywhere, had not stopped the Iranian nuclear program, had not restored relations with Turkey and had eroded the alliance with the US. Our tragedy is that they’re both right.

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