Feasibility of Alternative Cannabis Tax Schemes

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Feasibility of Alternative Cannabis Tax Schemes Feasibility of Alternative Cannabis Tax Schemes: A Legislative Report & Recommendation for Massachusetts July 2020 Massachusetts Cannabis Control Commission: Steven J. Hoffman, Chairman Jennifer Flanagan, Commissioner Britte McBride, Commissioner Shaleen Title, Commissioner Shawn Collins, Executive Director Prepared by Massachusetts Cannabis Control Commission in collaboration with Massachusetts Department of Revenue Alisa Stack, Chief Operating Officer, Cannabis Control Commission Julie K. Johnson, Director of Research, Cannabis Control Commission Geoffrey E. Snyder, Commissioner, Department of Revenue Kevin E. Brown, General Counsel, Department of Revenue Kazim Ozyurt, Chief Economist, Department of Revenue Acknowledgements Cannabis Control Commission Erika Scibelli, Chief of Staff David McKenna, Chief Technology Officer Kyle Potvin, Director of Licensing Chantelle Porter, Investigator Kirsten Swenson, Communications Specialist David Lakeman, Director of Government Affairs Samantha Doonan, Research Analyst Department of Revenue Tim Rooney, Chief Financial Officer Fushang Liu, Supervising Economist, Office of Tax Policy & Analysis John Paul Murphy, Senior Economist, Office of Tax Policy & Analysis Paul Casey, Deputy Commissioner, Legislative, External Affairs & Policy Nathalie Dailida, Director, Legislative & External Affairs Bill Graham, Senior Deputy Commissioner, Tax Administration Steve Moffatt, Deputy Commissioner, Tax Evan Garcia, Director, Miscellaneous Excises Purpose This report, Feasibility of Alternative Cannabis Tax Schemes: A Legislative Report & Recommendation for Massachusetts, supplemented by the study, Assessment of Alternative Tax Models for Adult-Use Cannabis in Massachusetts, has been prepared in response to the enabling legislation, Chapter 55 of the Acts of 2017 section 63: “The Massachusetts cannabis control commission, in collaboration with the department of revenue, shall study the feasibility of alternative tax bases for calculating taxes on marijuana and marijuana products, including by weight, volume or tetrahydrocannabinol potency. The commission shall file the results of this study together with any recommendations for changes to marijuana tax policy with the clerks of the senate and the house of representatives, who shall forward the recommendations to the senate and house chairs of the joint committee on marijuana policy and the senate and house chairs of the joint committee on revenue not later than July 1, 2020.” Table of Contents I. Tax Study Overview .......................................................................................................... 2 II. Current System .................................................................................................................. 3 III. Feasibility ............................................................................................................................ 4 Price-Based Scheme ................................................................................................................... 5 i. Price-Based Scheme Results Summary ............................................................................... 5 Chart III. A. Price- Based Tax Scheme Projections .......................................................... 5 ii. Price-Based Scheme Feasibility Assessment ....................................................................... 5 Weight-Based Scheme ................................................................................................................ 6 i. Weight-Based Scheme Results Summary ............................................................................ 6 Chart III. B. Weight- Based Tax Scheme Projections ....................................................... 6 ii. Weight-Based Scheme Feasibility Assessment ................................................................... 6 THC (“Potency”)-Based Scheme ............................................................................................... 7 i. THC (“Potency”)-Based Scheme Results Summary ........................................................... 7 Chart III. C. THC (“Potency”)- Based Tax Scheme Projections ..................................... 7 ii. THC (“Potency”)-Based Scheme Feasibility Assessment ................................................... 7 IV. Conclusion .......................................................................................................................... 9 V. Recommendation.............................................................................................................. 10 VI. Appendix: KPMG Study, Assessment of Alternative Tax Models for Adult-Use Cannabis in Massachusetts ......................................................................................................... 11 Executive Summary This legislative report has been prepared in response to the enabling legislation, Section 63 of Chapter 55 of the Acts of 2017, to assess feasibility in implementing varying adult-use cannabis market tax schemes. A comprehensive assessment on varying price, weight, and potency-based schemes was contracted and conducted by KPMG LLP (KPMG). All of the varying tax schemes assessed could feasibly be implemented in Massachusetts [See KPMG study for all schemes assessed (page 19)]; However, analyses suggest that the current 20% tax rate, including a 6.25% sales tax, 10.75% excise tax, and <3% local tax, is within the optimal range for revenue and feasibility in Massachusetts. Keeping the current 20% tax rate, the study’s forecasted analyses show that annual cannabis sales in Massachusetts have the potential to reach $1 billion by June 2021 (i.e., July 2020 through June 2021), which will generate annual tax revenue of approximately $200 million. Any change to the current tax structure is projected to result in marginal tax revenue changes and could cause disruption to the still new and maturing market. The Massachusetts Cannabis Control Commission (“Commission”) recommend that no changes be made to the current taxation rate at this time. However, a re-assessment of tax schemes may be warranted as the market matures in the future. Both the Commission and the Massachusetts Department of Revenue (DOR) defer to the Legislature to determine tax rates. DOR’s contributions to this report are limited to evaluation of alternative tax schemes for feasibility of implementation. 1 I. Tax Study Overview This legislative report, Feasibility of Alternative Cannabis Tax Schemes: A Legislative Report & Recommendation for Massachusetts (“report”), supplemented by study, Assessment of Alternative Tax Models for Adult-Use Cannabis in Massachusetts (“study”), has been prepared in response to the enabling legislation, Section 63 of Chapter 55 of the Acts of 2017, to assess feasibility in implementing varying tax schemes by weight, volume, and tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) potency. For these purposes, the Cannabis Control Commission (“Commission), in collaboration with the Massachusetts Department of Revenue (“DOR”), released a request for proposals to conduct an econometric study of varying cannabis tax schemes. This contract was awarded to KPMG LLP (KPMG), an independent public accounting firm with expertise in both the Massachusetts policy landscape and economic theory and methodologies. This study’s primary objective was to forecast future cannabis sales and tax revenue under different cannabis tax schemes, which included: two price-based, four weight-based, and two potency-based schemes. This study found that all alternative tax schemes, except for one weight- based tax scheme, are estimated to generate more tax revenue, compared with the current price- based tax of <20%; However, these changes would be relatively small, potentially short-term in nature, and may disrupt the still nascent cannabis industry in Massachusetts. This report provides the Massachusetts Legislature with an assessment of the feasibility of alternative cannabis tax schemes and concludes with recommendations based on study results. [See KPMG study in Appendix (pages 12-40), Assessment of Alternative Tax Models for Adult- Use Cannabis in Massachusetts] 2 II. Current System While cannabis is not new, the legal marketplace for adult-use cannabis has only recently emerged in the United States (U.S.). In 2012, Colorado and Washington made history as the first states to legalize adult-use cannabis with Colorado’s retail stores opening for business in 2014. Additional states followed suit with a range of heterogenous policies and regulations. The result has been a legal industry with distinct differences from other industries and between states. Massachusetts enacted and implemented non-medical adult-use cannabis legalization in 2016 with Question 4, “Massachusetts Legalization, Regulation and Taxation of Marijuana Initiative.” The ballot measure outlined a tax scheme at 12%, which would have been the lowest tax rate of all legalized states. In 2017, the Legislature revised the effective rate to 20% where it stands today. There was concern that the proposed excise tax in the original measure was too low, as other legalized states had higher rates at this time [CO (29%), WA (37%), and OR and AK (25%)]. Revisions in Massachusetts included a change in excise tax from 3.75% to 10.75% and local tax from <2% to <3%. Massachusetts currently has a price-based tax scheme, including a 6.25% sales tax, 10.75% excise tax, and <3% local tax. Similar to the heterogeneity inherent in adult-use cannabis policy and regulation, states also implement varying
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