Out-Of-Sequence DTP and Measles Vaccinations and Child Mortality in Guinea-Bissau: a Reanalysis
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Open access Original research BMJ Open: first published as 10.1136/bmjopen-2018-024893 on 5 September 2019. Downloaded from Out-of-sequence DTP and measles vaccinations and child mortality in Guinea-Bissau: a reanalysis Sanne M Thysen, 1,2,3,4 Amabelia Rodrigues,2 Peter Aaby,2,3 Ane B Fisker1,2,3 To cite: Thysen SM, ABSTRACT Strengths and limitations of this study Rodrigues A, Aaby P, et al. Objectives To assess whether the sequence of Out-of-sequence DTP and diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis vaccine (DTP) and measles ► Vaccination status of the children were only updated measles vaccinations and vaccine (MV) was associated with child survival in a child mortality in Guinea- at the inspection of a vaccination card. dataset previously used to assess non-specific effects of Bissau: a reanalysis. BMJ Open ► This study used the landmark analyses and thus vaccines with no consideration of vaccination sequence. 2019;9:e024893. doi:10.1136/ prevented survival bias. Design Prospective cohort study analysed using the bmjopen-2018-024893 ► Misclassification of vaccinations due to the land- landmark approach. mark approach would yield conservative estimates. ► Prepublication history and Setting Bandim Health Project’s Health and Demographic ► Booster doses of diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis (DTP) additional material for this Surveillance System covering 100 village clusters in rural paper are available online. To were not registered before 1996, and we were Guinea-Bissau. The recommended vaccination schedule view these files, please visit therefore not able to make any firm conclusions of was BCG and oral polio vaccine (OPV) at birth, DTP and the journal online (http:// dx. doi. the effect of booster DTP. OPV at 6, 10 and 14 weeks, MV at 9 months and booster org/ 10. 1136/ bmjopen- 2018- ► Sensitivity analyses were conducted to limit the ef- DTP and OPV at 18 months of age. 024893). fect of vaccinations during follow-up. Participants Children aged 9–17 months (main analysis) Received 22 June 2018 and 18–35 months (secondary analysis: age of booster Revised 06 August 2019 DTP) with vaccination status assessed between April 1991 Accepted 09 August 2019 and April 1996. is due to a reduction in preventable child- Methods Survival during the 6 months after assessing hood diseases much of which is commonly vaccination status was compared by vaccination sequence ascribed to vaccines.2 Vaccines are designed in Cox-proportional hazards models with age as underlying 3 time. Analyses were stratified by sex and village cluster. to protect against specific pathogens. Main outcome measure Mortality rate ratio (MRR) for However, vaccines may have broader effects out-of-sequence vaccinations compared with in-sequence aside from the disease-specific protection http://bmjopen.bmj.com/ vaccinations. with the live vaccines stimulating the immune Results Among children aged 9–17 months, 60% system and reducing mortality by more of observations (3574/5937) were from children who than can be explained by preventing the had received both MV and DTP. Among these, 1590 target infection.4–7 Hence, due to beneficial observations were classified as in-sequence vaccinations non-specific effects (NSEs) of live vaccines, © Author(s) (or their (last DTP before MV), and 1984 observations were vaccines may have played an even larger role employer(s)) 2019. Re-use out-of-sequence vaccinations (1491: MV with DTP and permitted under CC BY-NC. No in the decline of childhood mortality than 493: MV before DTP). Out-of-sequence vaccinations on October 1, 2021 by guest. Protected copyright. commercial re-use. See rights usually assumed. were associated with higher mortality than in-sequence and permissions. Published by vaccinations (MRR 2.10, 95% CI 1.07 to 4.11); the MRR Studies from the introduction of the BMJ. measles vaccine (MV) in the 1970s and 1980s 1 was 2.30 (95% CI 1.15 to 4.58) for MV with DTP and OPEN, Institute of Clinical from Asia and Africa showed larger reduc- Research, University of Southern 1.45 (95% CI 0.50 to 4.22) for DTP after MV. Associations were similar for boys and girls (p=0.77). Between 18 and tions in mortality than could be ascribed Denmark, Odense, Denmark 8–10 2Bandim Health Project, 35 months the mortality rate increased among children to the prevention of measles infection. INDEPTH Network, Bissau, vaccinated in-sequence and the differential effect of out- Both observational studies and randomised Guinea-Bissau of-sequence vaccinations disappeared. controlled trials (RCTs) have later confirmed 3 Research Centre for Vitamins Conclusion Out-of-sequence vaccinations may increase lower mortality among measles-vaccinated and Vaccines, Bandim Health child mortality. Hence, sequence of vaccinations should children compared with measles-unvacci- Project, Statens Serum Institut, be considered when planning vaccination programmes nated children.11–13 Based on accumulating Copenhagen, Denmark or introducing new vaccines into the current vaccination 4Center for Global Health evidence, WHO’s Strategic Advisory Group of schedule. (GloHAU), Aarhus University, Experts on immunisation recently reviewed Aarhus, Denmark the evidence for NSEs of some vaccines, and Correspondence to INTRODUCTION concluded that the evidence for MV was Dr Sanne M Thysen; Child mortality has declined significantly consistent with beneficial NSEs, especially for s. thysen@ bandim. org between 2000 and 2015.1 Part of this decline girls.7 14 Thysen SM, et al. BMJ Open 2019;9:e024893. doi:10.1136/bmjopen-2018-024893 1 Open access BMJ Open: first published as 10.1136/bmjopen-2018-024893 on 5 September 2019. Downloaded from The introduction of diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis At all visits, vaccination status, nutritional status and vaccine (DTP) in the 1980s was associated with higher vital status were assessed. Vaccination status was assessed overall mortality, despite the protection against the by inspection of a vaccination card. Children with no specific diseases.15–17 Other studies comparing mortality vaccination card and whose mother stated that the child of DTP-vaccinated children and DTP-unvaccinated chil- had never received any vaccine were considered ‘unvacci- dren have later confirmed the negative NSEs, especially nated’. Only children with ascertained vaccination status for girls.11 18–21 The WHO review of NSEs stated that bene- (seen vaccination card, confirmed unvaccinated) were ficial or deleterious NSEs of DTP could not be confirmed included in the analyses. Nutritional status was assessed nor refuted based on the evidence available.7 14 However, by measurement of the child’s mid-upper arm circumfer- the WHO review included studies with major survival bias; ence (MUAC). if the meta-analysis is restricted to studies with documen- tation of vaccination status and prospective follow-up, Vaccination programme and definition of exposure DTP-vaccinated children had twofold higher mortality The vaccination schedule consisted of BCG vaccine and than DTP-unvaccinated children.22 oral polio vaccine (OPV) at birth, 3 doses of DTP and Both observational studies18 20 23–27 and RCTs19 28 suggest OPV at 6, 10 and 14 weeks of age, MV at 9 months of that the NSEs depends most strongly on the most recent age and booster doses of DTP and OPV at 18 months of vaccination and that sequence of vaccinations therefore age. The vaccination schedule did not change during the is important. RCTs have compared inactivated vaccine study period. Vaccinations were provided through the after medium-titre or high-titre MV with standard-titre national immunisation programme. Systematic registra- MV after inactivated vaccine. A meta-analysis of the trials tion of DTP and OPV booster doses were only initiated in indicates that receiving an inactivated vaccine after a live 1996, and thus, booster doses were not registered during MV was associated with a mortality rate ratio (MRR) of the study period. 1.38 (95% CI 1.05 to 1.83) compared with receiving live Children were divided into five groups according to the MV after an inactivated vaccine, the negative effect being most recent vaccination(s) at the time their vaccination particularly strong for females.28 card was inspected: one group consisted of children, who In the first study that assessed the effect on mortality were vaccinated in the recommended sequence, having of MV and DTP, having received MV versus no MV was received MV after DTP (DTP<MV). Two groups were associated with an MRR of 0.48 (95% CI 0.27 to 0.87); in vaccinated out-of-sequence: children who had received contrast, having received DTP versus no DTP was asso- DTP and MV simultaneously (DTP=MV), and children ciated with higher mortality (MRR=1.84, 95% CI 1.10 to who had received DTP after MV (DTP>MV). Two groups 3.10).11 The analysis did not consider sequence of vaccina- had not received MV; children who had received DTP, tions, the potential importance of which had not yet been but had not received MV (DTP, no MV) and children who detected. We took advantage of this historical dataset11 had neither received MV nor DTP (no DTP, no MV). to test if the different sequences of DTP and MV vaccina- http://bmjopen.bmj.com/ tions were associated with mortality. The issue is partic- Study population ularly important now because WHO is planning to add Children aged 9–35 months when visited between 9 several non-live vaccines to the vaccination schedule,29 April 1991 and 24 April 1996 were eligible for the study. including booster DTP and RTS,S malaria vaccine, and Figure 1 depicts the combined mortality rate of all study some will be given after MV. children. Mortality declines with age as expected in the beginning, but around 21 months of age the mortality rate increases. The primary analysis is the age group 9–17 METHODS months since this is the period after MV is scheduled and on October 1, 2021 by guest.