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DGAP Commentary No. 17, May 2020

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DGAP Commentary No. 17, May 2020 German Council on Foreign Relations No. 17 May 2020 COMMENTARY How Poland’s Postponed Election is Boosting Opposition Hopes What was supposed to be a simple called into question and triggered Po- reelection campaign for President land’s most serious crisis of democra- Andrzej Duda could be a political cy since it joined the EU, 16 years ago. turning point for Poland. Contrary to expectations that authoritative lead- The debacle of the postponed election ers would use the pandemic to con- highlighted cracks in the foundations Adam Traczyk Junior Fellow, Robert Bosch solidate power, it exposed the ruling of the governing “United Right” coali- Center for Central and Eastern party’s vulnerability. The outcome of tion, which is built around the national Europe, Russia, and Central Asia the new elections, which are expected conservative Law and Justice (Prawo i to take place in late June or early Sprawiedliwość, PiS) party. In contrast July 2020, is now uncertain. Europe to Hungary, where Viktor Orban’s party should pay attention, because a new Fidesz holds a constitutional majority president could help reconfigure do- in parliament, the ruling alliance in Po- mestic politics and restore Poland’s land is not monolithic. It is rather a position as a more constructive EU conglomerate of different groupings partner. held together by PiS’ leader Jarosław Milan Nič Kaczyński. Simply put, the ruling alli- Head, Robert Bosch Center for In early May, just weeks after it entered ance is more fragile than it may seem Central and Eastern Europe, Russia, and Central Asia a state of lockdown, Poland decided from the outside. to push ahead with a highly disputed election. Amid the global pandemic, a Developments before May 10 also postal-only model was proposed. In showed that while Kaczyński’s pow- the end, the presidential election was er in Poland might not be restrained called off at the last minute. It became by law, it can be curbed by political re- clear that in a country of 38 million in- alities. Last October, PiS lost control habitants, a last-minute postal vote over the senate after it fell into the op- was logistically impossible. Postpon- position’s hands in the parliamenta- ing the election has averted the worst- ry elections. The narrow majority of case scenario: a situation in which the the “United Right” coalition in the Se- election result itself could have been jm hangs by a thread as internal rows No. 17 | 2 COMMENTARY How Poland’s Postponed Election is Boosting Opposition Hopes between technocrats and hardliners current president could count on the land’s attitude towards Europe. A re- threaten to break apart the ruling alli- support of slightly more than 40 per- cent public opinion poll conducted by ance. It remains to be seen if Kaczyński cent of the voters. That still places the European Council on Foreign Re- will be able to maintain the balance be- Duda on pole position, but raises the lations (ECFR) showed that over half tween the different groups and hold the possibility of a run-off with the lead- of Duda’s supporters believe that Pol- “United Right” together. Regardless of ing opposition candidate. The race for ish values are under threat in the EU, the final result of the presidential race, the presidency is becoming more and and that in today’s world, Poland must he has a difficult task on his hands. more competitive. primarily rely on itself. Meanwhile, as many as two-thirds of Civic Platform Assuming that the new electoral law, and Polish People’s Party supporters A FAILED ELECTION which will allow both in-person and want Poland to rely on the EU. In the BACK ON TRACK postal voting, restores the standards past, President Duda has compared of a fair and free election, postpon- Poland’s membership in the EU with PiS initially wanted to hold the presi- ing the vote to early summer could past occupations by foreign powers. dential election on May 10 at any cost. have a tremendous impact on the out- Although the three opposition candi- Even despite the risks connected with come of the presidential race. The dates have similar world-views – with the coronavirus pandemic and nu- postponement of the elections has al- center-right Trzaskowski being the merous legal and logistical hurdles re- so brought about important shifts in most liberal among them – whichev- garding how citizens could safely vote the opposition camp. The biggest op- er candidate advances to the run-off without threatening public health. The position party, the centrist Civic Plat- alongside Duda could have at least a leadership of PiS believed that with form (Platforma Obywatelska, PO), medium-term impact on the Polish po- time, the anticipated economic fall- has already seized the opportunity to litical landscape. out caused by the pandemic could hurt swap Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska, who Andrzej Duda’s chances for reelection. was falling in the polls, for the popular mayor of Warsaw, Rafał Trzaskowski. BREAKING WITH THE But it was not as simple as PiS had TWO-PARTY SYSTEM? hoped it would be. Jarosław Gowin, Polls are already showing Trzaskowski the leader of Agreement (Porozumie- as the front-runner among the oppo- The Duda-Trzaskowski confrontation nie), one of Law and Justice’s small co- sition candidates; he is projected to would be yet another installment of Po- alition partners, rebelled against this win just under 20 percent of the vote. land’s old and deeply polarizing rivalry plan, backed up by a handful of MPs Other notable contenders to challenge between the same two political par- loyal to him. Because the ruling coa- President Duda in the run-off are ties. It is a political confrontation that lition holds a very slim parliamentary Szymon Hołownia, a former television has been poisoning Poland for the last majority of only five seats, and be- host and Catholic humanitarian activ- 15 years ever since Lech Kaczyński and cause the PiS leadership failed to con- ist with two-digit support, and until Donald Tusk competed for the presi- vince any of the opposition MPs to recently, Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, dency in 2005. But that could change. change sides, Gowin had his way. In the dynamic leader of the small this political game of chicken, it was Christian-democratic Polish Peasants’ Both Hołownia and Kosiniak-Kamysz Kaczyński who swerved first to avoid a Party (Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe, may have the potential to break this potentially fatal head-on collision that PSL). However, support for Kosiniak- pattern and bring about some renew- could have broken the ruling coalition Kamysz dropped to single digits after al of the Polish political system. If one apart, right before the election. Trzaskowski entered the race. of them makes it to the second round, it could break the dominant duopoly Polls conducted ahead of May 10 in- that has characterized Polish politics dicated that a significant number of CLASHING OVER EUROPE for years and rearrange the landscape opposition voters planned to boy- of Polish political parties. Kosiniak- cott the election. Therefore, polls in- Regardless of which candidate will Kamysz, whose supporters mostly hail dicated that President Duda, backed challenge President Andrzej Duda in from the countryside, has gained some by PiS, would be almost guaranteed the run-off, it will be a neck and neck momentum in larger cities. He could to secure the presidency in the first race as most opposition voters will even attract voters disappointed in round by winning more than 50 per- throw their support behind any of the ruling party. Hołownia, on the oth- cent of the votes. More recent polls Duda’s challengers. One of the main er hand, is somewhat a political nov- have shown that if the election were battlegrounds on which the opposition ice. He fits into a wider phenomenon to be held in normal conditions, the candidate will clash with Duda is Po- of young political outsiders who cap- No. 17 | 3 COMMENTARY How Poland’s Postponed Election is Boosting Opposition Hopes ARE POLISH VALUES THREATENED IN EUROPE? BY VOTING INTENTION, IN % Strongly Tend to Neither agree Tend to Strongly disagree disagree nor disagree agree agree TOTAL 12 19 23 13 Andrzej Duda 5 13 33 18 Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska 26 35 13 11 Szymon Hołownia 13 15 24 9 Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz 22 23 16 11 Robert Biedroń 21 22 17 8 Krzysztof Bosak 7 16 36 15 Source: 4P research mix (2-12 April 2020, 1,557 respondents). Poll commissioned by ECFR: https://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_polands_presidential_election_political_chaos_and_divides_on_eur italize on voters’ fatigue with tradi- point that leads to a new parliamentary pean Union a serious internal problem. tional political elites. He is capable of election. The European Commission has already mobilizing the youth vote, attracting launched numerous infringement pro- voters from different political camps, Although most presidential powers are cedures including Article 7 over Po- and even reaching out to non-voters. symbolic, the president is still by far land’s rule of law and judicial reforms. For all this, his chances to reach the the most decisive veto-player in the Holding a potentially illegitimate run-off may be undermined by lacking Polish political system. His or her ve- election would top all former clash- a broad and loyal voter base. to can be overruled only by a qualified es. Postponing the election allows EU majority of three-fifths. This means leaders to prioritize far-reaching de- that even if the nationalist conservative cisions about Europe’s economic re- CHANGING OF THE GUARD government of Mateusz Morawiecki covery, rather than worrying about its were to continue in power, it would fifth largest country challenging the All three opposition candidates also have to find a way to work with a pres- EU’s cohesion and values.
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