Lessons from Russia's Operations in Crimea and Eastern Ukraine

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

C O R P O R A T I O N Lessons from Russia’s Operations in Crimea and Eastern Ukraine Michael Kofman, Katya Migacheva, Brian Nichiporuk, Andrew Radin, Olesya Tkacheva, Jenny Oberholtzer www.rand.org/t/RR1498 This report assesses the annexation of Crimea by Russia (February–March 2014) and the early phases of political mobilization and combat operations in Eastern Ukraine (late February–late May 2014). It examines Russia’s approach, draws inferences from Moscow’s intentions, and evaluates the likelihood of such methods being used again elsewhere. RESEARCH QUESTIONS ? • Was Russia successful in its operations to annex Crimea and foment an insurgency in Eastern Ukraine? • What did Russia hope to accomplish by its actions? • Is it possible to infer military and political objectives from the operations? • Are these reproducible events, a possible model of operations, or were the circumstances and conditions unique? ✭ • What can we glean from the potential desire of Moscow to replicate a similar course of events elsewhere? • Did the combat, social-mobilization, and information-warfare aspects of these operations appear planned or improvised? • What lessons about Russia’s strategy and doctrine can we take away from the Ukrainian experience? continued on back KEY FINDINGS Russia’s Operation to Annex Crimea Represented Decisive and Competent Use of Military Force in Pursuit of Political Ends • Russia was able to seize the territory of a neighboring state with speed and mobility. To Do • The political maneuvering on the peninsula during the invasion suggests that it may have been launched without a predetermined political outcome in mind. • Russia likely sought to seize Crimea, and then evaluated its political options depending in part on how the intervention was received at home and abroad. Russia’s Operations in Crimea Benefited from a Series of Highly Favorable Circumstances That Makes It Difficult to Replicate • These included political, historical, geographical, linguistic, and military advantages in the region that have only partial analogues elsewhere in the former Soviet republics. • The confined geography of the peninsula, the proximity of Crimea to Russia, and its existence as a separate political unit within Ukraine gave Russia leverage. • Russia’s Black Sea Fleet was nearby, with legitimate transit routes that could be leveraged for a covert operation. Russian Leaders Are Likely to Consider Eastern Ukraine to Be a Strategic Success but an Unsuccessful Operation • Russia’s efforts in Eastern Ukraine proved to be a series of improvisations in response to resistance and friction when the initial political warfare effort foundered. • The lessons of Eastern Ukraine are rather mixed, demonstrating the limits of low-cost asymmetrical approaches even against a relatively weak and vulnerable state. • Russia achieved its primary objectives but at a much higher cost than desired and through a fitful cycle of adaptation. ARROYO CENTER RAND Arroyo Center is the Army’s federally funded research and development center for studies and analyses. Its mission is to help Army leaders make decisions that are informed by objective, high-quality analysis. For more information visit Arroyo’s website at www.rand.org/ard..

Copy Link

Recommended publications

The Liquidation of Denikin and Yudenich October 1919 – March 1920
The Liquidation of Denikin and Yudenich October 1919 – March 1920 “. Победить Деникина, уничтожить его, сделать невозможным повторение подобного нашествия – таков коренной интерес и Великорусских, и Украинских рабочих и крестьян.” “. To defeat Denikin, to annihilate him, to have made impossible for a similar invasion to recur – this is the main interest of the Great Russians, and the Ukrainian workers and peasants.” 45 Map 7 The Liquidation of Denikin and Yudenich // October 1919 – March 1920 Colored lithographic print, 99 x 64 cm. Compilers: A. N. de-Lazari and N. N. Lesevitskii Artist: N. D. Kazantsev Historical Background and Thematic Design The seventh map in the series depicts the Red Army’s defeat of the White counterrevolutionary forces of Gen- erals Denikin and Yudenich in the fall and winter of 1919-20. The map’s dominant visual image is the surge of Red Army soldiers, including soldiers with rifles and bayo- nets or cavalry with lances, who pursue White opposition forces into southern Russia and Ukraine, northern Russia, the Trans-Caspian, Crimea, Caucasus, Estonia, and Galicia, where they are illustrated as either hold- ing defensive positions, in flight, wounded, or killed. Bold red spearheads depict the movements of Red Ar- my forces, while green arrows indicate the defensive movement and retreat of White forces. Red is the dominant color and identifies the territory under control of the Red Army and the Soviet govern- ment. Green identifies territory remaining under White control, whereas gray indicates the area still being contested. Defeat of White Forces Overextended, outnumbered, and without local or international support, the White forces in southern Russia fell into a general retreat approximately 240 miles short of Moscow.
[Show full text]
Russia's Changing Role in Central Asia
Ideas for a fairer world FPC Briefing: Russia’s changing role in Central Asia - the post-Ukraine context, and implications Craig Oliphant Background Russia’s place in the world is a critical factor in contemporary global affairs. The way in which Russia engages with its former Soviet neighbours and how they respond will shape the security landscape in Eurasia, and has wider ramifications for international relations and the balance of global power.1 Russia’s relations with Ukraine, and in particular its intervention in Ukraine in 2014 through the de facto annexation of Crimea and support for rebel fighters in eastern Ukraine, have dominated that landscape and the current strategic agenda, and will continue to do so. Central Asian states have looked on with close attention and concern as events have unfolded in and on Ukraine in 2014 and 2015. It remains to be seen whether the actions Moscow has taken there are indicators of future attempts to reassert its influence elsewhere in the neighbourhood, and notably in Central Asia, or whether they mark some kind of watershed and are signs of Moscow’s weakening position - which of course poses its own set of challenges.2 A report highlighted by the Foreign Policy Centre in 2013, on Russia’s role and interests in Central Asia (CA), provided some of the historical background on Moscow’s approach towards the region and identified several features in Russia’s current bilateral relations with the CA countries.3 The first was that Moscow has found it hard to come to terms with its post-Soviet role – the perception and indeed reality of its diminished influence in neighbouring countries that were formerly part of the USSR.
[Show full text]
Crimea______9 3.1
CONTENTS Page Page 1. Introduction _____________________________________ 4 6. Transport complex ______________________________ 35 1.1. Brief description of the region ______________________ 4 1.2. Geographical location ____________________________ 5 7. Communications ________________________________ 38 1.3. Historical background ____________________________ 6 1.4. Natural resource potential _________________________ 7 8. Industry _______________________________________ 41 2. Strategic priorities of development __________________ 8 9. Energy sector ___________________________________ 44 3. Economic review 10. Construction sector _____________________________ 46 of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea ________________ 9 3.1. The main indicators of socio-economic development ____ 9 11. Education and science ___________________________ 48 3.2. Budget _______________________________________ 18 3.3. International cooperation _________________________ 20 12. Culture and cultural heritage protection ___________ 50 3.4. Investment activity _____________________________ 21 3.5. Monetary market _______________________________ 22 13. Public health care ______________________________ 52 3.6. Innovation development __________________________ 23 14. Regions of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea _____ 54 4. Health-resort and tourism complex_________________ 24 5. Agro-industrial complex __________________________ 29 5.1. Agriculture ____________________________________ 29 5.2. Food industry __________________________________ 31 5.3. Land resources _________________________________
[Show full text]
Islamic Art and Architecture in the European Periphery Crimea, Caucasus, and the Volga-Ural Region
Islamic Art and Architecture in the European Periphery Crimea, Caucasus, and the Volga-Ural Region Edited by Barbara Kellner-Heinkele, Joachim Gierlichs, and Brigitte Heuer 2008 Harrassowitz Verlag . Wiesbaden ISSN 05674980 ISBN 978-344705753-0 Contents Preface.................................................................................................................. 9 Abbreviations ....................................................................................................... 11 List of Figures ...................................................................................................... 13 Joachim Gierlichs Neglected Research Topics – Some Remarks ...................................................... 21 Ukraine Yuriy Boltryk and Svitlana Bilyayeva Investigations of Akkerman Fortress.................................................................... 35 Svitlana Bilyayeva and Bozkurt Ersoy Monuments of the Ottoman Period in the Ukraine: Archaeological Investigations (1989–2004)......................................................... 39 Ninel Bokii, Irina Kozyr, and Tatyana Pozywei A Golden Horde Complex in Podolia................................................................... 45 Bozkurt Ersoy The Inventory Project of Turkish Monuments in the Ukraine and Examples from the Crimea ............................................................................ 49 Đnci Kuyulu Ersoy Ottoman Cultural Heritage in the Ukraine............................................................ 53 Crimea Elena Aibabina Monumental
[Show full text]
Maintaining Arctic Cooperation with Russia Planning for Regional Change in the Far North
Maintaining Arctic Cooperation with Russia Planning for Regional Change in the Far North Stephanie Pezard, Abbie Tingstad, Kristin Van Abel, Scott Stephenson C O R P O R A T I O N For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR1731 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN: 978-0-8330-9745-3 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2017 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Cover: NASA/Operation Ice Bridge. Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface Despite a period of generally heightened tensions between Russia and the West, cooperation on Arctic affairs—particularly through the Arctic Council—has remained largely intact, with the exception of direct mil- itary-to-military cooperation in the region.
[Show full text]
Svalbard's Risk of Russian Annexation
The Coldest War: Svalbard's Risk of Russian Annexation The Harvard community has made this article openly available. Please share how this access benefits you. Your story matters Citation Vlasman, Savannah. 2019. The Coldest War: Svalbard's Risk of Russian Annexation. Master's thesis, Harvard Extension School. Citable link http://nrs.harvard.edu/urn-3:HUL.InstRepos:42004069 Terms of Use This article was downloaded from Harvard University’s DASH repository, and is made available under the terms and conditions applicable to Other Posted Material, as set forth at http:// nrs.harvard.edu/urn-3:HUL.InstRepos:dash.current.terms-of- use#LAA The Coldest War: Svalbard’s Risk of Russian Annexation Savannah Vlasman A Thesis In the Field of International Relations for the Degree of Master of Liberal Arts in Extension Studies Harvard University 2018 Savannah Vlasman Copyright 2018 Abstract Svalbard is a remote Norwegian archipelago in the Arctic Ocean, home to the northernmost permanent human settlement. This paper investigates Russia’s imperialistic interest in Svalbard and examines the likelihood of Russia annexing Svalbard in the near future. The examination reveals Svalbard is particularly vulnerable at present due to melting sea ice, rising oil prices, and escalating tension between Russia and the West. Through analyzing the past and present of Svalbard, Russia’s interests in the territory, and the details of the Svalbard Treaty, it became evident that a Russian annexation is plausible if not probable. An assessment of Russia’s actions in annexing Crimea, as well as their legal justifications, reveals that these same arguments could be used in annexing Svalbard.
[Show full text]
Hijra and Forced Migration from Nineteenth-Century Russia to The
Cahiers du monde russe Russie - Empire russe - Union soviétique et États indépendants 41/1 | 2000 Varia Hijra and forced migration from nineteenth- century Russia to the Ottoman Empire A critical analysis of the Great Tatar emigration of 1860-1861 Brian Glyn Williams Electronic version URL: http://journals.openedition.org/monderusse/39 DOI: 10.4000/monderusse.39 ISSN: 1777-5388 Publisher Éditions de l’EHESS Printed version Date of publication: 1 January 2000 Number of pages: 79-108 ISBN: 2-7132-1353-3 ISSN: 1252-6576 Electronic reference Brian Glyn Williams, « Hijra and forced migration from nineteenth-century Russia to the Ottoman Empire », Cahiers du monde russe [Online], 41/1 | 2000, Online since 15 January 2007, Connection on 20 April 2019. URL : http://journals.openedition.org/monderusse/39 ; DOI : 10.4000/monderusse.39 © École des hautes études en sciences sociales, Paris. BRIAN GLYN WILLIAMS HIJRA AND FORCED MIGRATION FROM NINETEENTH-CENTURY RUSSIA TO THE OTTOMAN EMPIRE A critical analysis of the Great Crimean Tatar emigration of 1860-1861 THE LARGEST EXAMPLES OF FORCED MIGRATIONS in Europe since the World War II era have involved the expulsion of Muslim ethnic groups from their homelands by Orthodox Slavs. Hundreds of thousands of Bulgarian Turks were expelled from Bulgaria by Todor Zhivkov’s communist regime during the late 1980s; hundreds of thousands of Bosniacs were cleansed from their lands by Republika Srbska forces in the mid-1990s; and, most recently, close to half a million Kosovar Muslims have been forced from their lands by Yugoslav forces in Kosovo in Spring of 1999. This process can be seen as a continuation of the “Great Retreat” of Muslim ethnies from the Balkans, Pontic rim and Caucasus related to the nineteenth-century collapse of Ottoman Muslim power in this region.
[Show full text]
Using Kosovo Precedent to Legitimize the Annexation of Crimea1
Instrumentalising Balkan’s recent past. How Russia is (miss-)using Kosovo precedent to legitimize the annexation of Crimea1 Vasile Rotaru, PhD Post-doctoral researcher [email protected] Miruna Troncotă, PhD Post-doctoral researcher [email protected] Department of International Relations and European Integration. National University of Political Science and Public Administration, Bucharest, Romania Abstract The article aims to contribute to the broader scholarly discussions which have comparatively examined the similarities and the differences between the conflict settlement strategies in the Western Balkans (former Yugoslav space) and the Black Sea Region (former Soviet space) in recent years. In particular, we aim to analyze the ways in which Russian foreign policy has used the Yugoslav secession wars and external intervention for the legitimization of its own actions in the former Soviet space; and the consequences of Russia’s ability to exploit the legal ambiguities, more precisely the tension between the principles of self- determination and territorial integrity and between the humanitarian intervention and the illegal military intervention (open or covered) for a particular interpretation of international law. The “precedent” created by Kosovo’s secession from Serbia was invoked first by Vladimir Putin when Russia recognized the independence of the breakaway regions of Abkhazia 1 This work was supported by a grant of the Romanian National Authority for Scientific Research and Innovation, CNCS – UEFISCDI, project number PN-II-TE-2014-4-0534 1 and South Ossetia. It reappeared in the rhetoric of the Russian President again with the secessionist referendum in Crimea and subsequently managed territory’s smooth takeover from Ukraine.
[Show full text]
Russia's Ambiguous Warfare and Implications for the U.S. Marine Corps
Russia’s Ambiguous Warfare and Implications for the U.S. Marine Corps Mary Ellen Connell and Ryan Evans Abstract. The Russian Federation used ambiguous warfare strategies to annex Crimea in 2014 and propagate Ukrainian instability. Rapidly generated, highly trained, and well-disciplined Russian forces on the ground in Ukraine unoffi cially coordinated with pro-Russian separatists to conduct psychological operations, intimidation, and bribery among the population to undermine nationalist resis- tance. Illustrating warfare’s expanding reach, these activities obscure the factors that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization traditionally uses to identify the need for the cooperative defense of a member nation. This summary of a CNA- organized meeting of experts captures these topics and their implications on the U.S. government’s current warfi ghting strategy. Keywords: Gerasimov Doctrine, Russia, Ukraine, Crimea, Donbass, Baltic states, Spetsnaz, U.S. Marine Corps, maskirovka, ambiguous warfare, warfi ghting strategy, unmanned aerial vehicle, drone use n 2014, “little green men”—strongly suspected to be Russian Federation soldiers—surged into Crimea and drove out all elements and symbols of IUkrainian authority.1 Peace now prevails on the Crimean peninsula under Rus- sian control, but as of this writing, war still rages in Ukraine’s eastern region of Donbass, where Russian-backed separatists wield Russian weapons, drive Russian Mary Ellen Connell is a research scientist with CNA’s Center for Strategic Studies and a graduate of the National War College. A former counselor in the U.S. Senior Foreign Service, Connell served at U.S. embassies in Africa and Europe and the U.S. mission to NATO.
[Show full text]
45 Russia's Arctic Security Policy
SIPRI Policy Paper RUSSIA’S ARCTIC 45 SECURITY POLICY February 2016 Still Quiet in the High North? ekaterina klimenko STOCKHOLM INTERNATIONAL PEACE RESEARCH INSTITUTE SIPRI is an independent international institute dedicated to research into conflict, armaments, arms control and disarmament. Established in 1966, SIPRI provides data, analysis and recommendations, based on open sources, to policymakers, researchers, media and the interested public. The Governing Board is not responsible for the views expressed in the publications of the Institute. GOVERNING BOARD Ambassador Sven-Olof Petersson, Chairman (Sweden) Dr Dewi Fortuna Anwar (Indonesia) Dr Vladimir Baranovsky (Russia) Ambassador Lakhdar Brahimi (Algeria) Jayantha Dhanapala (Sri Lanka) Ambassador Wolfgang Ischinger (Germany) Professor Mary Kaldor (United Kingdom) The Director DIRECTOR Dan Smith (United Kingdom) Signalistgatan 9 SE-169 70 Solna, Sweden Telephone: +46 8 655 97 00 Fax: +46 8 655 97 33 Email: [email protected] Internet: www.sipri.org Russia’s Arctic Security Policy Still quiet in the High North? SIPRI Policy Paper No. 45 EKATERINA KLIMENKO February 2016 © SIPRI 2016 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without the prior permission in writing of SIPRI or as expressly permitted by law. ISBN 978–91–85114–89–4 Contents Preface iv Summary v Abbreviations vii 1. Introduction 1 2. Russia’s Arctic aspirations 3 Russia’s Arctic policymaking 3 Russia’s Arctic energy resources: no development without foreign 6 technology The Northern Sea Route 9 The extension of limits of the continental shelf 11 3. Russia’s security policy in the Arctic 13 Arctic threat assessment 13 Russia’s military and civil emergency capacity in the Arctic 17 Russia’s growing military capabilities in, but not for, the Arctic 26 4.
[Show full text]
Russian Strategic Intentions
APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE Russian Strategic Intentions A Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA) White Paper May 2019 Contributing Authors: Dr. John Arquilla (Naval Postgraduate School), Ms. Anna Borshchevskaya (The Washington Institute for Near East Policy), Dr. Belinda Bragg (NSI, Inc.), Mr. Pavel Devyatkin (The Arctic Institute), MAJ Adam Dyet (U.S. Army, J5-Policy USCENTCOM), Dr. R. Evan Ellis (U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute), Mr. Daniel J. Flynn (Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI)), Dr. Daniel Goure (Lexington Institute), Ms. Abigail C. Kamp (National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START)), Dr. Roger Kangas (National Defense University), Dr. Mark N. Katz (George Mason University, Schar School of Policy and Government), Dr. Barnett S. Koven (National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START)), Dr. Jeremy W. Lamoreaux (Brigham Young University- Idaho), Dr. Marlene Laruelle (George Washington University), Dr. Christopher Marsh (Special Operations Research Association), Dr. Robert Person (United States Military Academy, West Point), Mr. Roman “Comrade” Pyatkov (HAF/A3K CHECKMATE), Dr. John Schindler (The Locarno Group), Ms. Malin Severin (UK Ministry of Defence Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre (DCDC)), Dr. Thomas Sherlock (United States Military Academy, West Point), Dr. Joseph Siegle (Africa Center for Strategic Studies, National Defense University), Dr. Robert Spalding III (U.S. Air Force), Dr. Richard Weitz (Center for Political-Military Analysis at the Hudson Institute), Mr. Jason Werchan (USEUCOM Strategy Division & Russia Strategic Initiative (RSI)) Prefaces Provided By: RDML Jeffrey J. Czerewko (Joint Staff, J39), Mr. Jason Werchan (USEUCOM Strategy Division & Russia Strategic Initiative (RSI)) Editor: Ms.
[Show full text]
Shining a Light on the Western Balkans
Shining a Light on the Western Balkans Internal Vulnerabilities and Malign Influence from Russia, Terrorism, and Transnational Organized Crime Vera Zakem, Bill Rosenau, and Danielle Johnson May 2017 Select a caveat DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release: distribution unlimited. CNA’s Occasional Paper series is published by CNA, but the opinions expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of CNA or the Department of the Navy. Distribution DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release: distribution unlimited. SPECIFIC AUTHORITY: N00014-16-D-5003 5/9/2017 Other requests for this document shall be referred to CNA Document Center at [email protected]. Photography Credit: https://florianbieber.org/2016/07/04/the-western-balkans-after-the- brexit-vote-russias-gain-europes-loss/ Approved by: May 2017 Dr. Jonathan Schroden, Director Center for Stability and Development Center for Strategic Studies This work was performed under Federal Government Contract No. N00014-16-D-5003. Copyright © 2017 CNA Abstract Since the civil wars of the 1990s, the Western Balkans region has been plagued by conflict and instability. The United States and Western Europe disengaged from this region in the last decade, and the Western Balkan countries have become particularly unstable due to internal vulnerabilities and external influence from state and non- state actors. CNA initiated a study to assess these internal vulnerabilities and external influence and threats from Russia, international terrorism, and transnational organized crime. Using research and semi-structured discussions with subject matter experts in the United States, Serbia, and Macedonia, including recent U.S. senior military and civilian leaders, this paper presents findings and implications for U.S.
[Show full text]