Schools Capacity Survey 2020 - Local Authority Commentary

APPENDIX B: Schools Capacity Survey 2020 - Local Authority Commentary

Local Authority Name The Royal Borough of Windsor and Maidenhead Local Authority Number 868

Black text – the template from the Department for Education Blue text – the Royal Borough’s response.

1. General LA overview indicating LA wide trends (Primary and Secondary age).

The Royal Borough of Windsor and Maidenhead has both a two-tier and a three-tier system. Windsor, Eton and Old Windsor operate a three-tier system with first, middle and upper schools. The rest of the borough, including Maidenhead and Ascot, has a two-tier system.

2. Factors affecting overall LA pupil numbers e.g. migration, housing development, live births. If you experience cross local authority boundary movement please identify the other local authorities involved and the scale of places affected.

The chart and table below shows the numbers of children resident, based on the Births data plotted against the year in which that cohort starts Reception. The shaded box indicates the cohort that started in September 2020. The borough does not yet have the 2019/20 births data.

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

1,868 1,817 1,863 1,735 1,650 1,652 1,721 1,670 1,597 1,489

Housing completions are expected to rise over the next couple of years – a number of significant developments are currently underway or due to start shortly. The longer-term level of housing building in the borough is subject to the agreement of the Borough Local Plan.

There is significant cross-border movement. Some borough schools have designated areas that cover parts of neighbouring local authority areas (and vice versa). Two neighbouring authorities also have grammar school systems, leading to large flows of pupils in and out of the borough at secondary transfer.

The Royal Borough has a policy of providing 5% surplus places wherever possible. This is to maximise parental choice, ensure that there are places available for children moving into the area and provide some leeway in case the projections underestimate the actual level of demand.

NOTE – this commentary provides two sets of projections for each area:

(a) The Full Projection. This projection is the borough’s projection of places and Includes demand from the borough’s current best estimates of all future new housing. (b) Maximum cohort projection. This takes into account the impact of inward and outward migration, and new housing as a cohort moves up through the schools, and gives the largest projected size of that cohort.

For the Full Projection figures no demographic data is available for the 2024 intake cohort. Projections for this cohort are based on a weighted average of the preceding five cohorts + the impact of new housing.

3. Summary of PRIMARY AGE pupil places in individual planning areas experiencing pressure on places either currently or projected and for which action is required to address.

You should include the local factors affecting each area identified and the impact of those factors, relating them, where appropriate, to the Local Authority wide factors described in 2 above in addition to area specific issues. Schools experiencing particular shortfalls of places, current or projected, should be identified here.

a. 8680001 Ascot Primary Schools

There are five primary schools in Ascot. Part of the area is served by a Bracknell Forest School – Ascot Heath Primary School.

Demographic trends • Adjusting for migration, the resident Reception age cohort for September 2020 (156) is similar to 2019 (157), but remains lower than in previous years (170 or above) (row ‘a’). • There do not appear to have been major changes in migration patterns in Ascot in recent years. • Taking account of the impact of new housing, the future Reception cohorts are expected to remain around current levels for the projection period (row ‘d’). • No demographic data is available for the September 2024 Reception cohort, which is therefore based on an average of preceding years.

New housing There continues to be additional demand arising from new housing in Ascot. The draft Borough Local Plan suggests that an additional 1,307 dwellings will be built in Ascot by 2032/33. This is expected to increase the Reception demand by a maximum of 45 places (43 by 2032/33). During the projection period, new housing is expected to add 14 children to the demand for Reception places (row ‘b’).

Actual intakes Projected intakes Year 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 a Transfer Cohort* 198 246 170 157 156 158 149 141 152 b Housing demand - - - - 5 5 8 10 14 c Total transfer cohort 198 246 170 157 161 163 157 151 166 d Reception PAN 136 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 e Temporary places ------f Planned places ------g Total places 136 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 h Actual Intake NOR 122 128 134 132 134 Autumn 2020 School Census i j FULL projection - - - - 136 137 131 124 138 k Surplus/Deficit +14 +22 +16 +18 +14 +13 +19 +26 +12 l % Surplus/Deficit +10.3 +14.7 +10.7 +12.0 +9.3 +8.7 +12.7 +17.3 +8.0 m Places short of 5% surplus 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 n Maximum cohort size - - - - 153 154 143 131 147 o Surplus/Deficit - - - - -3 -4 +7 +19 +3 *this is the number of children resident in Ascot (including North Ascot), based on GP registrations data and adjusted for movement in and out of the area.

The projections • The projections show that there will be sufficient places during the period to September 2024 (row ‘j’). • Demand from residents within the main Ascot area is projected to remain low. In recent years this low demand has, however, been offset by: o increased demand from the North Ascot area (served by the Ascot Heath schools), mainly into Cheapside CE Primary. o higher numbers of out-borough children, reaching 0.9 FE, above the long-term 0.6 FE average. • Accordingly, the level of surplus places is expected to remain numerically low, although above the target of 5% (row ‘l’). • Historically, Ascot cohorts have grown as they move up through the schools, and this is expected to continue (row ‘n’). This does growth generally includes a significant number of out-borough children.

The projected numbers are broadly in line with the 2019 projections, as higher intakes from the North Ascot area and from out-borough are factored in. If this trend does not continue then there is a risk of much higher surpluses of places.

Actions (current/planned) to address shortage/excess of places. Include no. of places to be added/removed in each school and by what date. You should include funding, levels & sources, allocated to the creation of additional places in each area.

No further actions are currently planned for Ascot during the projection period. Due to the significant numbers of new dwellings planned for the Ascot area, feasibility works have been carried out on the possibility of expanding local primary schools. Any proposals for new school places which be brought forward for public consultation as and when demand rises.

2 b. 8680004 Datchet & Wraysbury Primary Schools

There are two primary schools in Datchet and Wraysbury.

Demographic trends • Adjusting for migration, the resident Reception age cohort for September 2020 (112) is slightly smaller than that for 2019 (120) (row ‘a’). • There do not appear to have been major changes in migration patterns in Datchet/Wraysbury in recent years. • Taking account of the impact of new housing, the future Reception cohorts are set to continue fluctuating around current levels (94 to 121) for the projection period (row ‘d’). • No demographic data is available for the September 2024 Reception cohort, which is therefore based on an average of preceding years.

New housing There is currently little additional demand arising from new housing in Datchet and Wraysbury. The emerging Borough Local Plan suggests that an additional 660 dwellings will be built in the area up to 2032/33. This is expected to increase the Reception demand by a maximum of around 30 places (27 by 2032/33). During the projection period, new housing is expected to add 6 children to the demand for Reception places (row ‘b’).

Actual intakes Projected intakes Year 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 a Transfer Cohort* 131 110 124 120 112 121 94 111 112 b Housing demand - - - - 0 0 0 1 6 c Total transfer cohort 131 110 124 120 112 121 94 112 118 d Reception PAN 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 e Temporary places ------f Planned places ------g Total places 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 h Actual Intake NOR 89 87 88 89 88 Autumn 2020 School Census i j FULL projection - - - - 89 89 81 89 90 k Surplus/Deficit +1 +3 +2 +1 +1 +1 +9 +1 0 l % Surplus/Deficit +1.1 +3.3 +2.2 +1.1 +1.1 +1.1 +10.0 +1.1 0.0 m Places short of 5% surplus 3 1 2 3 3 3 0 3 5 n Maximum cohort size - - - - 90 90 88 90 90 o Surplus/Deficit - - - - 00 0 +2 0 0 *this is the number of children resident in Datchet & Wraysbury, based on GP registrations data and adjusted for movement in and out of the area.

The projections • The projections show that demand at least matches the available places during the period to 2024. • A small no. of local applicants are offered places in schools outside Datchet and Wraysbury. • There could potentially be a dip in demand in September 2022. • The surplus of places is well below the 5% target, except in 2022, when there could be a surplus of up to 10%. • The projections include approximately 0.4 FE out-borough demand. • There is generally no growth in the cohort sizes as they move up through the schools (row ‘o’).

The projections are in line with those from 2019, with the exception of 2022, where the previous significant dip is now expected to be less severe.

No additional primary school places are currently planned. Although there are only a relatively small number of new dwellings expected in the Datchet and Wraysbury area, feasibility works have nevertheless been carried out on the possibility of expanding the local primary schools. Any proposals for new school places will be brought forward for public consultation as and when demand rises.

3 c. 8680003 Maidenhead Primary Schools

There are twenty-five primary schools in Maidenhead, including four infant and three junior schools.

Demographic trends • Adjusting for migration, the resident Reception age cohort for Sept. 2020 (1,112) is higher than in recent years (row ‘a’). • Comparing GP registrations data from different years suggests that there was significant net movement into the Maidenhead area across most year groups between 2017/18 and 2018/19. • Taking account of the impact of new housing, the future Reception cohorts are expected to grow (between 1,099 and 1,205) for the projection period (row ‘d’). • No demographic data is available for the September 2024 Reception cohort, which is therefore based on an average of preceding years.

New housing There continues to be additional demand arising from new housing. The emerging Borough Local Plan suggests that an additional 9,210 dwellings will be built in the town by 2032/33. This is expected to increase Reception demand by a maximum of 427 places (386 by 2032/33). During the projection period, new housing is expected to add 141 children to the demand for Reception places (row ‘b’).

Actual intakes Projected intakes Year 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 a Transfer Cohort* 1,081 1,025 1,005 1,053 1,112 1,061 1,134 1,068 1,094 b Housing demand - - - - 18 38 71 97 141 c Total transfer cohort 1,081 1,025 1,005 1,053 1,130 1,099 1,205 1,165 1,235 d Reception PAN 965 979 971 971 941 942 942 942 942 e Temporary places 33 - - - 30 30 30 30 0 f Planned places ------g ‘Mothballed’ places** - - (11) (11) (41) (41) (41) (41) (41) h Total places 998 979 971 971 971 972 972 972 942 i Actual Intake NOR 929 902 864 889 897 Autumn 2020 School Census j k FULL projection - - - - 939 927 1,020 987 1,041 l Surplus/Deficit +69 +77 +107 +82 +32 +45 -48 -15 -99 m % Surplus/Deficit +6.9 +7.9 +11.0 +8.4 +3.3 +4.6 -4.9 -1.5 -10.5 n Places short of 5% surplus 0 0 0 0 15 1 99 64 151 o Maximum cohort size - - - - 906 886 980 946 1,001 p Surplus/Deficit - - - - +65 +86 -8 +26 -59 *this is the number of children resident in Maidenhead, based on the GP registrations data and adjusted for movement in and out of the area. **Mothballed places indicate temporary reductions in PAN, which could be brought back into use when needed. These are not included in the places total.

The projections • The projections show that there will be sufficient overall places for 2021, but not in 2022 or, potentially, 2024 (row ‘k’). • There is set to be a deficit of 0.7% in September 2022, a small surplus of 2.7% in 2023, and a deficit of 6.2% in 2024. In order to provide a 5% surplus of places overall, 48 additional Reception places will be needed for September 2022 and, potentially a further 51 places in 2024 (row ‘l’). This could be partially offset by bringing mothballed places back into use. • The very latest GP registrations data indicates that the high inward migration noted above was not repeated in 2019/20. There has, however, been significant movement out of Reception classes in the Autumn term, with 40 fewer pupils on roll at the October census than had places at the start of term. This is a greater fall than is usually experienced. It is not yet clear how this will affect demand in the longer term, so the projections have not been adjusted. • At present, cohort sizes are not expected to grow significantly as they move up the schools (row ‘o’). • The projections include approximately 0.8 FE out-borough demand. • The overall projection masks significant variation within the town. Additional primary school places will be needed most urgently in South East Maidenhead, and specifically in the areas with significant amounts of new housing. There is also rising demand in North East Maidenhead and a bulge in Central Maidenhead for September 2022.

The projections are significantly higher than in 2019, due to increased inward migration between 2017/18 and 2018/19.

There are currently no planned school expansions, and proposals to provide new school places now need to be put forward for public consultation. Existing mothballed places could be brought back into use, if they provide places in the right areas. Due to the significant numbers of new dwellings planned for the Maidenhead area, feasibility works have already been carried out on the possibility of expanding local primary schools. 4 d. 8680002 Windsor First Schools

There are fourteen first schools in Windsor.

Demographic trends • Adjusting for migration, the resident Reception age cohort for Sept. 2020 (559) is identical to the previous year (row ‘a’). • Comparing GP registrations data from different years suggests that there was net movement into the Windsor area across most year groups between 2017/18 and 2018/19. • Taking account of the impact of new housing, the future Reception cohorts are expected to remain around current levels (between 470 and 506) for the projection period (row ‘d’). • No demographic data is available for the September 2024 Reception cohort, which is therefore based on an average of preceding years.

New housing There continues to be additional demand arising from new housing in Windsor. The emerging Borough Local Plan suggests that an additional 2,238 dwellings will be built in Windsor by 2032/33. This is expected to increase the Reception demand by a maximum of 86 places (81 by 2032/33). During the projection period, new housing is expected to add 57 children to the demand for Reception places (row ‘b’).

Actual intakes Projected intakes Year 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 a Transfer Cohort* 605 533 528 559 559 517 533 550 544 b Housing demand - - - - -3 10 26 35 57 c Total transfer cohort 605 533 528 559 556 527 559 585 601 d Reception PAN 545 545 545 545 545 545 545 545 545 e Temporary places 30 ------f Planned places ------g Total places 575 545 545 545 545 545 545 545 545 h Actual Intake NOR 531 500 478 503 487 Autumn 2020 School Census i j FULL projection - - - - 492 470 473 501 506 k Surplus/Deficit +44 +45 +67 +42 +53 +75 +72 +44 +39 l % Surplus/Deficit +7.7 +8.3 +12.3 +7.7 +9.7 +13.8 +13.2 +8.1 +7.2 m Places short of 5% surplus 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 n Maximum cohort size - - - - 507 484 490 517 522 o Surplus/Deficit - - - - +38 +61 +55 +28 +23 *this is the number of children resident in Windsor, based on the GP registrations data and adjusted for movement in and out of the area.

The projections • The projections show that there will be sufficient places during the period to September 2024 (row ‘j’). • The very latest GP registrations data indicates that the inward migration noted above may have been reversed in 2019/20; these projections have been adjusted downwards to take that into account. • Taking these factors into account, the projections suggest relatively low demand, with surpluses reaching 13-14% in 2021 and 2022, well above the 5% surplus place target (row ‘l’). • The projections include approximately 1.8 FE out-borough demand, which is in line with previous numbers. • There is some growth in the cohort size (row ‘n’) as they move up through the schools.

The projections are broadly similar to last year’s, (lower for 2020; higher for 2021 and beyond).

No new first school places are planned during the projection period. The borough will continue to consider whether any temporary reductions in school intakes are appropriate, given the high surpluses projected. Due to the significant numbers of new dwellings planned for the Windsor area, feasibility works have been carried out on the possibility of expanding local schools. Any proposals for new school places will be brought forward for public consultation as and when demand rises.

5 4. Summary of SECONDARY AGE pupil places in individual planning areas experiencing pressure on places either currently or projected and for which action is required to address. e. 8680005 Ascot Secondary Schools

There is one secondary school in Ascot, Charters School. It admits children from the five Ascot primary schools, and also has formal links with two Bracknell Forest schools.

Demographic trends • Based on historical primary to secondary transfers. • The Year 6 transfer cohort in 2020 is slightly smaller in size to the 2019 cohort (row ‘a’); 120 compared to 128, excluding the impact of new housing. • The transfer cohorts are expected to fall in size, with the exception of 2022, as lower numbers transfer up from the primary schools. Some of this will be offset by demand from new housing. • The cohorts at the feeder Bracknell schools are not expected to change significantly.

New housing New housing continues to generate additional demand in Ascot, which has only a relatively small immediate impact on secondary schools. The effect is felt instead once the larger cohorts move up from primary schools. The emerging Borough Local Plan suggests that 1,362 more dwellings will be built in the area by 2032/33, increasing the Year 7 demand by 36 places (36 by 2032/33). During the projection period, new housing is expected to add 17 children to the demand for Year 7 places (row ‘b’).

Actual intakes Projected intakes Year 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 a Transfer Cohort* 117 112 126 128 120 120 143 109 103 105 96 b Housing demand - - - - - 4 7 11 19 13 17 c Total transfer cohort 117 112 126 128 120 124 150 120 122 118 113 d Year 7 PAN 240 270 270 270 270 270 270 270 270 270 270 e Temporary places - - - 30 ------f Planned places ------g Total places 240 270 270 300 270 270 270 270 270 270 270 h Actual Intake NOR 240 270 271 302 271 Autumn 2020 School Census i j FULL projection - - - - 270 270 270 270 270 270 270 k Surplus/Deficit 0 0 -1 -2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 l % Surplus/Deficit 0.0 0.0 -0.4 -0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 m Places short of 5% surplus 12 14 15 17 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 n Maximum cohort size - - - - 273 274 272 273 273 274 272 o Surplus/Deficit - - - - -3 -4 -2 -3 -3 -4 -2 *this is the number of children resident in Ascot and on roll in an Ascot school in Year 6.

The projections • The projections indicate that there should be enough places for Ascot and designated area residents in the period to 2026. • The surplus will remain non-existent as the school usually fills empty places regardless (row ‘k’). • The projections include approximately 4.0 FE out-borough demand; a significant part of this is from within the school’s designated area, but falling local demand has meant that there is currently more capacity for out-borough residents. • There is growth in the size of the cohorts as they move up through the school, as children moving into the area are often offered a place over and above the Published Admission Number (row ‘o’). • The school took a bulge class in September 2019, increasing its PAN to 300.

The 2020 projections are in line with those from 2019.

No further expansions are currently planned. Due to the numbers of new dwellings planned for the Ascot area, feasibility works have been carried out on the possibility of expanding Charters School. Any proposals for new school places will be brought forward for public consultation as and when demand rises.

f. 8680009 Datchet and Wraysbury Secondary Schools

There is one secondary school in Datchet and Wraysbury, Churchmead School. It admits children from the two local primary schools, and also has formal links with a number of Slough schools. Many of the children on roll at Churchmead live in Slough and attended a Slough primary school.

Demographic trends • Based on historical primary to secondary transfers + information from Slough Borough Council. • The Year 6 transfer cohort in 2020 is significantly larger than the 2019 cohort (row ‘a’); 75 compared to 48. • In future the cohorts moving should generally be larger, following earlier expansion at Wraysbury Primary School.

New housing There is currently little additional demand arising from new housing in Datchet and Wraysbury. The emerging Borough Local Plan suggests that an additional 660 dwellings will be built in the area up to 2032/33. This is expected to increase the Year 7 demand by a maximum of around 22 places (16 by 2032/33). During the projection period, new housing is not expected to any children to the demand for Year 7 places (row ‘b’).

Actual intakes Projected intakes Year 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 a Transfer Cohort* 45 65 68 48 75 81 69 65 67 70 63 b Housing demand - - - - - 0 0 0 0 0 0 c Total transfer cohort 45 65 68 48 75 81 69 65 67 70 63 d Reception PAN 140 140 110 110 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 e Temporary places ------f Planned places ------g ‘Mothballed’ places** - - (30) (30) (20) (20) (20) (20) (20) (20) (20) h Total places 140 140 110 110 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 i Actual Intake NOR 59 77 96 90 119 Autumn 2020 School Census j k FULL projection - - - - 112 119 118 114 112 113 111 l Surplus/Deficit +81 +63 +14 +20 +8 +1 +2 +6 +8 +7 +9 m % Surplus/Deficit +57.9 +45.0 +12.7 +18.2 +6.7 +0.8 +1.7 +5.0 +6.7 +5.8 +7.5 n Places short of 5% surplus 0 0 0 0 0 5 4 0 0 0 0 o Maximum cohort size - - - - 112 119 118 114 112 113 111 p Surplus/Deficit - - - - +8 +1 +2 +6 +8 +7 +9 *this is the number of children resident in Datchet and Wraysbury and on roll in a Datchet & Wraysbury school in Year 6. **Mothballed places indicate temporary reductions in PAN, which could be brought back into use when needed. These are not included in the places total.

The projections • There should be sufficient places (in all year groups) throughout the projection period. • The surplus is projected to be below 10% for most of the projection period (row ‘m’). • The school continues to attract more children transferring from the Datchet and Wraysbury primary schools, although the proportion has dropped in 2020. • The projections include approximately 2.3 FE out-borough demand, which is an increase on previous years, and a return to levels last seen in 2012. A significant part of the school’s designated area covers Slough. • The school has previously taken one teaching block out of use, reducing its PAN to 110. The PAN has been increased slightly for 2020 onwards, to 120. • There is no growth as the cohorts move up through the schools (row ‘n’).

The 2020 projections are higher than those from last year, mainly reflecting higher out-borough demand.

There are currently no plans to expand secondary school provision in this area. Although there are only a relatively small number of new dwellings expected in the Datchet and Wraysbury area, feasibility works have nevertheless been carried out on the possibility of expanding Churchmead School. Any proposals for new school places will be brought forward for public consultation as and when demand rises.

7 g. 8680008 Maidenhead Secondary Schools

There are six secondary schools in Maidenhead, including two single-sex schools (one for boys and one for girls). One of the secondary schools reserves part of its intake for boarders.

Demographic trends • Based on historical primary to secondary transfers. • The Year 6 transfer cohort in 2020 is larger than the 2019 cohort (row ‘a’); 850 compared to 839, excluding the impact of new housing. • The size of the Year 6 cohort is set to increase again slightly for September 20201 and again in 2023, particularly once the impact of new housing is taken into account (row ‘c’).

New housing New housing continues to generate additional demand in Maidenhead. The emerging Borough Local Plan suggests that 9,210 more dwellings will be built in the town by 2032/33, increasing the Year 7 demand by 388 places (257 by 2032/33). During the projection period, new housing is expected to add 86 children to the demand for Year 7 places (row ‘b’) (note, however, that many of these children will already be in borough primary schools).

Actual intakes Projected intakes Year 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 a Transfer Cohort* 700 763 798 839 850 852 822 858 778 748 750 b Housing demand - - - - - 11 25 46 55 67 86 c Total transfer cohort 700 763 798 839 850 863 847 904 833 815 836 d Year 7 PAN 938 944 1,004 1,008 1,038 1,064 1,064 1,064 1,064 1,064 1,064 e Temporary places 66 60 4 9 26** ------f Planned places ------g Total places 1,004 1,004 1,008 1,017 1,038 1,064 1,064 1,064 1,064 1,064 1,064 h Actual Intake NOR 868 874 921 955 985 Autumn 2020 School Census i j FULL projection - - - - 988 1,000 986 1,037 974 955 974 k Surplus/Deficit +136 +130 +87 +62 +50 +64 +78 +27 +90 +109 +90 l % Surplus/Deficit +13.5 +12.9 +8.6 +6.1 +4.8 +6.0 +7.3 +2.5 +8.5 +10.2 +8.5 m Places short of 5% surplus 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 25 0 0 0 n Maximum cohort size - - - - 988 1,000 986 1,037 974 955 974 o Surplus/Deficit - - - - +50 +64 +78 +27 +90 +109 +90 *this is the number of children resident in Maidenhead and on roll in a Maidenhead school in Year 6. ***Holyport College has increased its Year 7 PAN for day pupils from 26 to 52.

The projections • There are expected to be sufficient places available in Year 7 during the projection period. • Although the surplus will be below 5% in September 2023, the number of pupils attending from out-borough means there is scope to address more local demand by taking fewer out-borough children, through the normal operation of the school admissions criteria. • The projections include approximately 7.3 FE out-borough demand, up from 6.9 FE last year and 5.0 FE in 2015. • The number of Maidenhead children taking up places in selective schools in neighbouring local authorities remains high, reaching 5.2 FE for September 2020. This compares to a 2010 to 2017 average of 90. Two selective schools in Buckinghamshire extended their catchment/designated areas to cover Maidenhead from September 2020. One of these, and a third selective school, are also increased their PANs. This does not immediately appear to have had a significant effect on the overall numbers getting places – over 70% of Maidenhead applicants to a selective school are already successful. • There is not expected to be growth in the cohort sizes as they move up through the schools (row ‘n’).

The 2020 projections are in line with those from 2019 up until 2023, and lower afterwards. The projections assume that recent trends in the numbers of out-borough children attending Maidenhead schools, and Maidenhead residents attending out-borough selective schools, will continue.

There are currently no further plans for expansion. Due to the numbers of new dwellings planned for the Maidenhead area, feasibility works have been carried out on the possibility of expanding the secondary schools. Any proposals for new school places will be brought forward for public consultation as and when demand rises.

8 h. 8680006 Windsor Middle Schools

There are four middle schools in Windsor: three in Windsor itself; the fourth in Old Windsor village.

Demographic trends • Based on historical first to middle transfers. • The Year 4 transfer cohort in 2020 is similar in size to the 2019 cohort (row ‘a’); 421 compared to 429, excluding the impact of new housing. • The size of the Year 4 cohort is set to remain relatively high by historical standards for most of the projection period, particularly once the impact of new housing is taken into account (row ‘c’).

New housing There continues to be a low level of additional demand arising from new housing in Windsor. The emerging Borough Local Plan suggests that an additional 2,238 dwellings will be built in Windsor up to 2032/33. This is expected to increase the Year 5 demand by a maximum of 41 places (39 by 2032/33). During the projection period, new housing is expected to add 18 children to the demand for Year 5 places (row ‘b’).

Actual intakes Projected intakes Year 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 a Transfer Cohort* 384 396 418 429 421 426 411 388 409 395 366 b Housing demand - - - - - 3 4 7 6 11 18 c Total transfer cohort 384 396 418 429 421 429 415 395 415 406 384 d Year 5 PAN 450 450 510 540 540 540 540 540 540 540 540 e Temporary places ------f Planned places ------g Total places 450 450 510 540 540 540 540 540 540 540 540 h Actual Intake NOR 453 449 473 494 463 Autumn 2020 School Census i j FULL projection - - - - 481 487 478 451 487 476 452 k Surplus/Deficit -3 +1 +37 +46 +59 +53 +62 +89 +53 +64 +88 l % Surplus/Deficit -0.7 +0.2 +7.3 +8.5 +10.9 +9.8 +11.5 +16.5 +9.8 +11.9 +16.3 m Places short of 5% surplus 26 21 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 n Maximum cohort size - - - - 483 487 478 421 487 476 452 o Surplus/Deficit - - - - +57 +53 +62 +119 +53 +64 +88 *this is the number of children resident in Windsor and on roll in Windsor schools in Year 4.

The projections • The projections show that there will be sufficient places to meet demand during the period to 2025, following the completion of the expansion at Peter’s CE Middle School. • The surplus of places will be above the 5% target, rising to 16.5% in September 2023. • There has previously been some uncertainty around the projections due to a July 2019 army unit move. The Household Cavalry has been replaced by the Welsh Guards, previously based at Pirbright. Approximately 100 children are thought to have moved away as a result. Current indications are that the numbers that have moved in are lower, and concentrated in the younger year groups. This will feed through to future middle school demand in due course. • There has, however, been movement out of Year 5 classes in the Autumn term, with 14 fewer pupils on roll at the October census than had places at the start of term. This is a greater fall than is usually experienced. . It is not yet clear how this will affect demand in the longer term, so the projections have not been adjusted. • The projections include approximately 1.3 FE out-borough demand. Most of these children are on roll in the first schools. • The projections also include approximately 0.7 FE from Datchet/Wraysbury residents. Half are on roll in the first schools. • There is generally little growth in the cohort size (row ‘n’) as they move up through the schools.

The projections are lower than the 2019 projections, largely reflecting changes made to match recent movement out of Year 5.

No further middle school expansions are planned, following on from the expansions at St Peter’s CE Middle School and Dedworth Middle School. Due to the numbers of new dwellings planned for the Windsor area, feasibility works have been carried out on the possibility of expanding the middle schools. Any proposals for new school places will be brought forward for public consultation as and when demand rises.

9 i. 8680007 Windsor Upper Schools

There are two upper schools in Windsor, one for boys and one for girls, which together form the Windsor Learning Partnership (WLP). Windsor is also currently served by a secondary school (Holyport College) that has an intake at Year 9, prioritising children from the Windsor system. The projections below for the Windsor upper schools exclude the numbers moving up from Year 8 into Year 9 at this school (as these are included in the Maidenhead numbers). Similarly, the PAN set out below for Windsor excludes the 44 places at that school taken up by the pupils moving up from Year 8.

Demographic trends • Based on historical middle to upper transfers. • The Year 8 transfer cohort in 2020 is larger than the 2019 cohort (row ‘a’); 367 compared to 3, excluding the impact of new housing. • The size of the Year 8 cohort is set to continue increasing for most of the projection period, particularly once the impact of new housing is taken into account (row ‘c’).

New housing There continues to be a low level of additional demand arising from new housing in Windsor. This tends to have only limited immediate major impact on upper schools, but the effect is subsequently felt once the larger cohorts move up from first and middle schools. The emerging Borough Local Plan suggests that an additional 2,238 dwellings will be built in Windsor in the period to 2032/33. This is expected to increase the Year 9 demand by 38 places (35 by 2032/33). During the projection period, new housing is expected to add 12 children to the demand for Year 9 places (row ‘b’).

Actual intakes Projected intakes Year 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 a Transfer Cohort* 285 334 306 341 338 363 369 380 379 381 370 b Housing demand - - - - - 4 4 6 7 10 12 c Total transfer cohort 285 334 306 341 338 367 373 386 386 391 382 d Year 9 PAN 452** 498 498 498 498 498 472*** 472 472 472 472 e Temporary places ------f Planned places ------g Total places 452 498 498 498 498 498 472 472 472 472 472 h Actual Intake NOR 403 456 420 449 468 Autumn 2020 School Census i j FULL projection - - - - 476 492 463 484 495 499 476 k Surplus/Deficit +49 +42 +78 +49 +22 +6 +9 -12 -23 -27 -4 l % Surplus/Deficit +10.8 +8.4 +15.7 +9.8 +4.4 +1.2 +1.9 -2.5 -4.9 -5.7 -0.8 m Places short of 5% surplus 0 0 0 0 2 19 14 36 48 52 28 n Maximum cohort size - - - - 489 504 471 494 504 508 484 o Surplus/Deficit - - - - +9 -6 +1 -22 -32 -36 -12 *this is the number of children resident in Windsor and on roll in a Windsor school in Year 8. **Although Holyport College has 18 places available for boarders in Year 9, these are not generally being taken up by Windsor children, so only 4 places are counted as ‘available’ here. ***Holyport College has approved changes to its admissions arrangements that end the current intake of 26 children into Year 9 in September 2022.

The projections • The projections show that the surplus of places will be very small in 2021 and 2022. • From September 2023, there is set to be an overall deficit of places, requiring a further form of entry to meet demand in that year, and second form of entry in September 2024. The projected deficit is partially the result of increased demand moving up from the Windsor middle schools, and partially due to changes in the admissions arrangements at Holyport College. From September 2022 the school will no longer have a Year 9 intake for 26 day pupils. • More detailed work indicates that there will be a shortage of places for girls from September 2022, and potentially as early as 2021 (depending on the gender split of (i) applications made by Windsor residents to Holyport College, and (ii) applications to the upper schools from areas outside Windsor). • There has been some uncertainty around the projections due to a July 2019 army unit move. The Household Cavalry has been replaced by the Welsh Guards, previously based at Pirbright. Approximately 100 children are thought to have moved away as a result. Current indications are that the numbers that have moved in are lower, and concentrated in the younger year groups. This will feed through to future upper school demand in due course. • The projections include approximately 2.0 FE out-borough demand. Most of these children are transferring up from the middle schools. • There is a small amount of growth as the cohorts move up through the schools (row ‘n’).

The projections are lower than those from 2019. Part of this is down to the removal of the Year 9 day places at Holyport College from this line, and partly due to changing staying on rates as cohorts move up through the schools.

10 Actions (current/planned) to address shortage/excess of places. Include no. of places to be added/removed in each school and by what date. You should include funding, levels & sources, allocated to the creation of additional places in each area.

There are currently no planned school expansions, and proposals to provide new school places now need to be put forward for public consultation. As demand for middle school places has been falling some of the additional capacity could be temporary. Due to the numbers of new dwellings planned for the Windsor area, feasibility works have been carried out on the possibility of expanding the upper schools. Any proposals for new school places will be brought forward for public consultation as and when demand rises.