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Economic Outlook

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Economic Outlook AN UNOBSTRUCTED VIEW APRIL 2012 ECONOMIC UPDATE: 360 © Matthias Paul Kuhlmey, 2012 AN UNOBSTRUCTED VIEW | 1 These materials are solely informational. In preparing these materials, we have relied upon and assumed without independent verification, the accuracy and completeness of all information available from public and internal sources. HighTower shall not in any way be liable for claims and make no expressed or implied representations or warranties as to their accuracy or completeness or for statements or errors contained in or omissions from them. Matthias Paul Kuhlmey is an investment professional registered with HighTower Securities, LLC, member FINRA, MSRB and SIPC & HighTower Advisors, LLC a registered investment advisor with the SEC. All securities are offered through HighTower Securities, LLC and advisory services are offered through HighTower Advisors, LLC. 993741-2012.05 AN UNOBSTRUCTED VIEW APRIL 2012 ECONOMIC UPDATE: 360 ‘Seen the Future I. Status-Quo It was quite the fascinating spectacle, not only for little boys, when about two weeks ago, the final journey of the Space Shuttle Enterprise took course over New York skies. The “retired” shuttle will be installed at the Intrepid Sea, Air and Space Museum on the Hudson River and will go on display July 19, 2012. “Nice,” one may think, as something “quite distant,” at least under previously normal circumstances, will become closer to the eye of an observer. On the other hand, this is a somewhat “tragic retirement,” as nothing comparable, at least so far, has replaced the Shuttle or the entire related Space Mission. The same is true for the once fastest passenger plane, the Concorde, which was taken out of service in 2003 and not yet replaced with an equivalent. No longer being able to fly between London and New York in about 3.5 hours, or to lift-off to space in a manned spacecraft, makes us wonder whether we are truly creating a technological evolution, or if we may be moving backwards (hopefully to prepare for the next “wave forward”). When observing today’s state of global financial markets, especially when ignoring the “noise” of intraday trading of financial instruments and their price movements/valuations, one may wonder if we are moving backwards in this area, as well. If the situation is evaluated on a purely nominal basis (for most onlookers, a relevant indicator is the level of stock markets), the anticipated economic recovery since the onset of the Credit Crisis of 2008/2009 may well be underway. If, however, this aspect is judged from a broader perspective, the global economy and related financial markets may have become a place with increased levels of imbedded systemic risk – with expansive credit creation being only one of the contributors to this issue. ‘Seen the Future is most certainly a daring title for this Quarterly Outlook, but as a mounting number of our respected clients and friends continue asking about “how the entire dilemma could play out,” we will attempt to bring some answers, or at least raise questions that should be asked when prudently allocating money. One of the most important things to explore is whether we have indeed been moving backwards and if this may continue for some time to come or, alternatively, if the “move forward” has already started. We realize that we must accept a certain degree of personal and/or professional risk, since our messaging may appear overly concerned, or even negative, at times. In applying an elevated standard of care, as a fiduciary to our clients, we have no choice but to “tell it like it is.” Thus, a broad investment framework on how investors should be positioned will be part of this update. AN UNOBSTRUCTED VIEW | 2 These materials are solely informational. In preparing these materials, we have relied upon and assumed without independent verification, the accuracy and completeness of all information available from public and internal sources. HighTower shall not in any way be liable for claims and make no expressed or implied representations or warranties as to their accuracy or completeness or for statements or errors contained in or omissions from them. Matthias Paul Kuhlmey is an investment professional registered with HighTower Securities, LLC, member FINRA, MSRB and SIPC & HighTower Advisors, LLC a registered investment advisor with the SEC. All securities are offered through HighTower Securities, LLC and advisory services are offered through HighTower Advisors, LLC. 993741-2012.05 AN UNOBSTRUCTED VIEW APRIL 2012 ECONOMIC UPDATE: 360 II. Things To Remember 1. Benjamin Franklin In 1758, Benjamin Franklin, also known as one of the Founding Fathers of the United States, published “The Way to Wealth”; one may think this must be quite outdated, but the concepts and ideas described by Mr. Franklin make us wonder if we would not be better off with him here, 250 years later, to provide his fellow Americans with guidance. In his work, Franklin expresses opinions about Taxes, the Industry, Frugality, but most importantly about Pride and Debt. Mr. Franklin notes that acquiring debt compares to nothing else but surrendering freedom, dignity, and power. Life, as such, is in a state that will become controlled by creditors, who, according to Mr. Franklin, “always have better memories than their debtors.” Being in debt, so Franklin professes, robs one of character and moral integrity, as “… it is hard for an empty bag to stand upright.” This is an interesting and somewhat accurate analogy, since the overly indebted (U.S.) consumer was the first to “falter” under the pressure of a deleveraging housing market, which was linked to enormous borrowing. Pride, on the other hand, is the basis for “departing” from a reasonable approach or sense of expenditure. Another true observation, considering the fact that, for decades, consumption in the U.S. has accounted for about 70% of GDP – most certainly an unsustainable model in the long run. Mr. Franklin was “slightly off,” as it relates to his assessment of the borrowing process; to learn the true value of money, according to Franklin, one should “go and try to borrow some.” It was his view that someone who tries to find a loan will meet only anguish. While conceptually true, lax bank regulations, lack of oversight, and misaligned incentives over the past decade(s) made it possible for nearly everyone to borrow. After all, it was during the lending “heyday” of the last decade that the term, “NINJA loan” became fashionable; that’s right - “No Income, No Job, No Assets,” but plenty of available credit! What is interesting to consider is that Franklin’s work was not a stand-alone publication, but rather the foreword to Poor Richard’s Almanack, a book of advice by writer Richard Saunders, which was a pseudonym Franklin used to camouflage his true identity. An example of the work: “Richard Saunders, the author of Poor Richard’s Almanack, considers buying cloth for a new coat, but after some moments of reflection, he decides thriftily to keep wearing his old one. He leaves the auction, telling those who would read his thoughts, “I am, as ever, thine to serve thee.” We have clearly not learned to live as frugally as Mr. Saunders (Household Sector Debt in 2011 at 89% of GDP, up from 68% in 2000); and while we’ve been all about the Benjamins for years in the U.S., we now must be concerned with our creditors – the ones with the longer memories, mainly residing in Asia. AN UNOBSTRUCTED VIEW | 3 These materials are solely informational. In preparing these materials, we have relied upon and assumed without independent verification, the accuracy and completeness of all information available from public and internal sources. HighTower shall not in any way be liable for claims and make no expressed or implied representations or warranties as to their accuracy or completeness or for statements or errors contained in or omissions from them. Matthias Paul Kuhlmey is an investment professional registered with HighTower Securities, LLC, member FINRA, MSRB and SIPC & HighTower Advisors, LLC a registered investment advisor with the SEC. All securities are offered through HighTower Securities, LLC and advisory services are offered through HighTower Advisors, LLC. 993741-2012.05 AN UNOBSTRUCTED VIEW APRIL 2012 ECONOMIC UPDATE: 360 2. Asia’s “Reservations” Today, Asian nations hold more than 50% (!) of all global reserves, better known as Official International Reserves or International Reserves. Those reserves, in “a strict sense are the Foreign Currency (FX) deposits and Bonds held by Central Banks and monetary authorities. However, the term in popular usage commonly includes Foreign Exchange, Gold, and Special Drawing Rights (SDRs).” From our point-of-view, there are two primary reasons why Asian nations have become the main aggregator of global reserves: 1. A continued and lasting response to the Asian Crisis of the mid 1990s 2. An increasingly imbalanced pattern of global consumption and savings It is important to understand how reserves actually “occur.” We have explained before that, in an over-simplified fashion, reserves can be considered “savings of a nation,” stemming from how global accounting is structured; more specifically, this is known as the Balance of Payments (BoP), or “an accounting record of all monetary transactions between a country and the rest of the world.” The BoP can also be understood as a “Global Balance Sheet”: “While the overall BoP accounts will always balance when all types of payments are included, imbalances are possible on individual elements of the BoP, such as the Current Account, the Capital Account excluding the Central Bank's reserve account, or the sum of the two. Imbalances in the latter sum can result in surplus countries accumulating wealth, while deficit nations become increasingly indebted.” With the U.S.
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