Reagan Now Far Behind Carter As the President's Lead Continues to Grow

ABC News -Harris Survey -~'------

For Release: Thursday AM, January 3rd, 1980 Vol. II No. 2 ISSN 0163-4846 REAGAN NOW FAR BEHIND CARTER AS THE PRESIDENT'S LEAD CONTINUES TO GROW

By Louis Harris

With the nation closing ranks behind the President in a crisis, Jimmy Carter has swept to a massive 59-36 percent lead over Ronald Reagan in the latest ABC News Harris Survey test. By contrast, Senator Edward Kennedy has now slipped behind Reagan by 49-46 percent.

Back in early October, Kennedy was ahead of Reagan by an overwhelming 64-34 percent and Carter lagged behind the former California governor by 52-45 percent.

Thus, in just 10 weeks, Carter and Kennedy have traded places in the 1980 race. Carter has come from the brink of political disaster to a dominating position, while Kennedy has gone from a soaring lead to a point where a run against Reagan might find him fighting an uphill battle.

These latest ABC News - Harris Survey results, taken among a nationwide cross section of 1,500 likely voters between December 14th and December 16th, confirm in dramatic terms the recent rise in Carter's political fortunes and the commensurate decline of Kennedy's.

In this same survey, Carter also has moved out to a sizable 58-38 percent lead over Kennedy among Democratic likely voters in the race for that party's nomination. At this point, Carter's poll numbers are literally out of sight: far ahead for the nomination and even farther ahead in the November run against the leading GOP aspirant, Ronald Reagan.

--On a regional basis, Carter is uniformly ahead of Reagan, leading by 23 points in the East, Midwest and South and by 19 points in the West. By contrast, in the East, Kennedy has fallen behind Reagan by 48-47 percent, compared with the 60-35 percent lead he had in late November. Kennedy is behind Reagan in the Midwest by the same 48-47 percent score, far off the 57-38 percent edge he held in that region at the beginning of November. In the South, Kennedy has now fallen behind Reagan by a decisive 56-39 percent, compared with a narrow 51-47 percent Kennedy lead in late November. In the West, Kennedy still leads Reagan by 58-36 percent, scarcely changed from his 57-38 percent margin in early November.

--Carter leads Reagan by sizable majorities among city, suburban and rural voters, and runs slightly ahead among small-town residents. Kennedy runs well ahead in the big cities and in the suburbs, and is well behind in small towns and rural areas.

--Carter runs 20 points or more ahead of Reagan among both men and women, while Kennedy loses to Reagan among men voters by 52-44 percent but is ahead among women by 49-46 percent.

--Carter wins over Reagan among white Protestants and Catholics and Jews, while Kennedy loses to Reagan by almost a 2 to 1 margin among white Protestants, but wins substantially among Catholics and Jews.

--Carter is ahead of Reagan among conservatives, moderates and liberals, while Kennedy loses the conservatives to Reagan decisively, moderates by a relatively close margin, but wins by more than 3 to 1 among liberals.

(over) -2

The pattern seems clear. At the moment, Carter is running strong in both normally Democratic and normally Republican sectors of the electorate. By contrast, Kennedy is winning most of the Democratic strongholds, but is behind heavily in normally Republican areas, and is losing the independent, swing groups by a narrow margin. In turn, this suggests that a Carter-Reagan contest, without the overlay of an Iranian crisis, could be much closer than the current ABC News - Harris Survey results indicate.

These results also point clearly to the fact that if Kennedy can win what is now an uphill fight for the Democratic nomination, he would face a tough and likely close race against the GOP nominee in the fall. Gone are last summer's wide Kennedy margins over any combination of Republicans in the election or Democrats in the primaries. Before Kennedy announced, many Democrats felt that his coattails would be welcomed by other Democratic candidates for lesser offices, and, indeed, the polls bore out this judgment. Now, it is Carter, not Kennedy, who offers the prospect of aid to other Democrats running in the fall.

Given the wide swings that have occurred during the past year, the soundest analysis of the current returns is that the 1980 presidential election could well shape up as a close race, regardless of whom either party ends up nominating.

But, going into the primaries, whatever bandwagon effect there is now clearly belongs to Carter, and this could be a factor on the minds of Democratic voters. The party faithful always want a winner.

TAB L E S

Between December 14th and 16th, the ABC News - Harris Survey asked a cross section of 1,500 likely voters nationwide by telephone:

"Next year/ suppose for president it was between former Governor Ronald Reagan for the Republicans and President Jimmy Carter for the Democrats. If you had to choose right now, would you vote for Reagan or Carter?"

REAGAN VS. CARTER IN 1980

Reagan Carter Not sure % % %

December 36 59 5

Late November 44 53 3

Early November 42 53 5

October 45 52 3

DECEMBER DEMOGRAPHICS

East 36 59 5 Midwest 37 60 3 South 36 59 5 West 37 56 7

Cities 31 64 5 Suburbs 32 62 6 Towns 47 48 5 Rural 41 55 4

Men 38 58 4 Women 35 60 5

White Protestant 43 52 5 White Catholic 31 64 5 Jewish 25 70 5

TABLE CONTINUED -3

REAGAN VS. CARTER IN 1980 CONT'D.

Reagan Carter Not sure % % %

Conservative 43 51 6 Middle of the road 35 62 3 Liberal 28 68 4

"Now, in 1980 for president, suppose it was between former Governor Ronald Reagan for the Republicans and Senator Edward Kennedy for the Democrats. If you had to choose right now, would you vote for Reagan or Kennedy?"

REAGAN VS. KENNEDY IN 1980

Reagan Kennedy Not sure % % %

December 49 46 5

Late November 42 55 3

Early November 38 58 4

October 34 64 2

DECEMBER DEMOGRAPHICS

East 48 47 5 Midwest 48 47 5 South 56 39 5 West 36 58 6

Cities 43 52 5 Suburbs 44 52 4 Towns 55 38 7 Rural 58 38 4

Men 52 44 4 Women 46 49 5

White Protestant 63 32 5 White Catholic 42 55 3 Jewish 24 72 4

Conservative 62 34 4 Middle of the road 50 45 5 Liberal 23 74 3

Louis Harris and Associates, Inc. subscribes to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls. The principles are that all reports of survey findings of member organizations, prepared specifically for public release, will include reference to the following: sponsorship of the survey; dates of interviewing; method of obtaining the interviews; population that was sampled; size of the sample; size and description of the sub-sample, if the survey report relies primarily on less than the total sample; complete wording of questions upon which the release is based; and, the percentages upon which conclusions are based.

All of this information is provided fn this release.