14 POINT LEAD for CARTER by Louis Harris B in a Head-To-Head Pairing

Home , Jimmy Carter

The Harris Survey For Release: September 9, 1976 14 POINT LEAD FOR CARTER By Louis Harris b In a head-to-head pairing. Democrat Jimmy Carter leads President Ford by 53-39 per cent according to a Harris Survey of 2,844 likely voters.

However, with former Sen. Eugene McCarthy in the race, Carter's lead is 49-38 per cent, with McCarthy winning 6 per cent of the vote.

In the six largest northern industrial states -- California, New York, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Michigan -- Carter holds only a slender 43-40 per cent lead, with McCarthy receiving 7 per cent of the vote. And in the 10 largest states, which include the big six of the north, plus Texas, Florida, Massachusetts, and New Jersey, Carter is ahead by only a slender 44-39 per cent, with PIcCarthy again at 7 per cent.

Carter's base among the voters is evident when the results of the three-way race are examined. In the South. he holds a commanding 59-33 per cent lead over the President. Among southern whites, he leads by 56-39 per cent. Among blacks nationwide, he is way out front by 81-13 per cent. In the rural areas of the country, he holds a 50-41 per cent edge, and in the small towns, a 49-41 per cent one.

Carter's problem centers in the big industrial states of the North. He is ahead in the suburbs by only a narrow 44-40 per cent. Among Catholics, he holds no more than a 47-36 per cent edge. And among Jewish voters, he is ahead by 48-31 per cent, with McCarthy garnering a strikingly high 14 per cent. The Carter margins among both the Catholic and Jewish groups are far below the normal showing for a Democratic candidate for President.

However, if the South can hold solidly for him, Carter will not have to win a majority of the big 10 states of the country to carry the electoral college. He can win four of them and still edge out a victory next November.

President Ford's problem is quite different. It now seems apparent that there is little hope in the Ford campaign for resurrecting the much-touted sunbelt strategy that Republicans have talked about in recent years. Mr. Ford is stuck with a big-state strategy to have any hope of winning. He must win seven out of 10 of the big states, which is no small order.

The two regions in which the President shows strength are his native Midwest, where he holds a slender 43-41 per cent edge over Carter, and in the West, where he trails Carter by 46-38 per cent, with McCarthy at a high 11 per cent. In the East, Carter is ahead by a substantial 48-36 per cent.

L The keys to a Ford victory must be found in the suburbs, where he is behind by 4 points; among the college- educated voters, where he leads by 44-40 per cent, with McCarthy at 10 per cent; among independents, where he leads by a slender 40-39 per cent, with McCarthy at 10 per cent; among professional people, where he is ahead by 44-39 per cent, with McCarthy at 9 per cent.

These are all swing voting groups, with little party allegiance, and all have turned out in high numbers at the polls on past election days. If Gerald Ford can gain five points among these groups, he will be in a good position to narrow the gap against Carter in the big states and move into a lead in electoral college votes.

One possibility suggested by these results is the off-chance that Carter may win the popular vote in a close election but lose the electoral college vote. The reason is that the big 10 states can each be won by a whisker-thin margin and, in the aggregate, far outweigh the current huge Carter majorities in the less populated southern states.

Such speculation, of course, is vastly premature at this stage of the race, for a 14-point Carter lead in the head-to-head pairing with Ford and an 11-point lead in the three-way contest with Ford and McCarthy is certainly substantial. Nonetheless, the peculiar nature of the likely vote in this election must be watched carefully as the campaign unfolds.

There is one other element in this race indicating that volatility rather than stability is likely to be the rule in the final eight weeks of the race. No more than 35 per cent of Carter's voters say they are now "very strongly" for him, while 31 per cent of the people favoring.President Ford say they are "very strongly" for him. This means that a majority of both candidate's supporters are "soft" and capable of straying away from their current favorite. TABLES

Between Aug. 18 and 30, a cross section of 2,844 likely voters was asked: "For President this November it will be between Gerald Ford for the Republicans and Jimmy Carter for the Democrats. If you had to make up mind right now. would you vote for Ford the Republican or for Carter the Democrat?" dr

FORD VS. CARTER TREND

-Ford --Carter Not Sure X X X

Late August 1976 Early August July (post-Democratic convention) June

The cross section was also asked: ''In some states. former U.S. Sen. Eugene McCarthy will also be on the presidential ballot, running as an independent. If he's on the ballot in this state, and you had to make up your mind right now, would you vote for Ford the Republican, Carter the Democrat or McCarthy the independent?"

FORD VS. CARTER VS. McCARTHY TREND

--Ford Carter McCarthx Not Sure % X X %

Late August 1976 Early August