Scenario Analysis for Evacuation Strategies for Residents in Big Cities During Large-Scale Flooding
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Journal of JSCE, Vol. 3, 209-223, 2015 (Originally published in Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B1, Vol. 69, No. 1, 71-82, 2013 in Japanese) SCENARIO ANALYSIS FOR EVACUATION STRATEGIES FOR RESIDENTS IN BIG CITIES DURING LARGE-SCALE FLOODING Toshitaka KATADA1, Noriyuki KUWASAWA2, Satoru SHIDA3 and Masaru KOJIMA4 1Member of JSCE, Professor, Research Center for Disaster Prevention in the Extended Tokyo Metropolitan Area, Gunma University (1-5-1 Tenjin-cho, Kiryu-shi, Gunma 376-8515, Japan) E-mail: [email protected] 2Member of JSCE, Research Center for Disaster Prevention in the Extended Tokyo Metropolitan Area, Gunma University (IDA Co., Ltd.) (1-5-1 Tenjin-cho, Kiryu-shi, Gunma 376-8515, Japan) E-mail: [email protected] 3Member of JSCE, River Planning Division, Water and Disaster Management Bureau, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (1F, Joint Government Building (Chuo Godo Chosha) No. 3, 2-1-3 Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-8918, Japan) E-mail: [email protected] 4Member of JSCE, River Department, Kanto Regional Development Bureau, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (16F, Saitama New Urban Center Joint Government Building No. 2, 2-1 Shintoshin, Chuo-ku, Saitama-shi, Saitama 330-9724, Japan) E-mail: [email protected] In major cities, large populations can hinder evacuation efforts in the event of a large-scale flooding. Therefore, for investigating evacuation strategies during large-scale flooding in such cities, population size and its impact must be considered. This study aims to examine the evacuation problems that arise when big cities are subjected to large-scale flood damage. In addition, it attempts to examine strategies that can over- come the evacuation problems. In this study, we developed a scenario simulator to elaborately simulate the flooding, evacuation of residents, and status of damage due to water exposure in the Edogawa Ward, which has a population of approximately 650,000. In addition, using a simulation that reflected the intended evacu- ation behaviors of the residents for a scenario in which the banks of the Arakawa River overflowed, we were able to identify the inherent evacuation problems of the city, including the damage caused by the presence of a large number of evacuees. Furthermore, we analyzed scenarios including measures to reduce the extent of damage. From this information, it became clear that countermeasures such as spatial and temporal disper- sion of evacuees and a reduction in evacuation demand are necessary. Key Words: scenario analysis, evacuation strategies, big cities, large-scale flooding, simulation 1. INTRODUCTION tion and industries in such cities has also accelerated. Consequently, extensive damage by large-scale In recent years, the risk of flooding has grown be- flooding is now a real concern. Hence, development cause of the increased frequency of torrential down- of disaster-prevention measures targeting large-scale pours and stronger typhoons as a result of climate flood damage in big cities has become an urgent change associated with global warming. Therefore, concern. In particular, demand has risen for promot- the need for disaster-prevention measures targeting ing software-based countermeasures, including flood damage has also grown. In large cities, in par- evacuation strategies. ticular, the frequency of exposure to water has re- In April 2010, the Expert Panel on Large-Scale duced as a result of aggressive flood control Flood Disaster Countermeasures of the Central Dis- measures and facilities implemented in recent years. aster Prevention Council of the Cabinet Office made However, at the same time, concentration of popula- recommendations to reduce damage from large- 209 scale flooding in the Tokyo metropolitan area1). Ac- in some areas, the river banks did not experience cording to estimations by this Expert Panel, in the washout, and fortunately, large-scale external flood- case of flooding of the Tone River, which would ing did not occur. During the largest recorded flood- cause maximum damage to the Tokyo metropolitan ing of the Shonai River, the city of Nagoya issued area, an area of approximately 500 km2 would be an evacuation advisory that targeted over a million submerged in water and 2.3 million people would be residents living in 181 school districts within the exposed to flooding. The Expert Panel also indicat- city 25 minutes after the river had exceeded the wa- ed that evacuation policies must be examined based ter level, which was the standard for announcing an on the characteristics of the city to reduce the extent evacuation advisory. However, the number of resi- of damage. As highlighted in these recommenda- dents who evacuated to facilities specified by the tions and in a case involving the city of Nagoya, city was limited to approximately 5,000 people. presented in the next chapter, evacuation strategies Hence, based on the evacuation percentage, only a in large cities pose a difficult set of problems be- very limited evacuation could be performed2). If we cause a large population is affected. also consider the evacuees who fled to locations Based on an awareness of the abovementioned other than those that were designated as evacuation problems, the aim of this study is to understand the shelters, the actual number of evacuees was a little evacuation problems that arise with large-scale higher. However, if the Shonai River had burst its flooding in large cities, as well as to examine appro- banks at that time, it is not hard to imagine the priate countermeasures for such problems. First, to large-scale damage that would have occurred. How- specifically identify the problems associated with a ever, on the other hand, if most residents who were large number of evacuees present in cities with large warned to evacuate had actually evacuated, an un- populations, we developed a scenario simulator to precedented large-scale flood evacuation would simulate the evacuation of local residents necessitated have unfolded. In such a scenario, it is easy to imag- by flooding in the Edogawa Ward of Tokyo, which ine that the evacuation would have resulted in seri- has a population of over 650,000 people. We then ous confusion. Furthermore, if large-scale external used the developed simulator to analyze a scenario flooding had occurred, we cannot deny the possibil- that assumed a washout of the banks of the Arakawa ity that there would have been numerous casualties River. This information was then used to understand among the evacuees. the status of damage based on the behaviors of the As can be imagined from this case, the problem residents to examine measures to reduce damage, as of evacuating residents from large cities is a compli- well as to verify the effectiveness of such measures. cated concern, which, depending on the presence of Consequently, we were able to clarify the evacua- a large population to be evacuated, cannot be re- tion problems inherent to large cities where stereo- solved by merely promoting evacuation. Therefore, typical evacuations cannot be promoted or derived, to examine appropriate evacuation strategies for as well as the directionality of the strategies that large cities, rather than statically considering the should be adopted. regional population as the scale for a maintenance target or an evacuation target, we must also address problems that occur during evacuation, including 2. POLICY FOR EXAMINING FLOOD- evacuation behaviors using the way people think ING EVACUATION MEASURES FOR and act as dynamic elements that depend on the LARGE CITIES progression of the situation and the acquisition of information. (1) Evacuation problems during flooding of large cities (2) Policy for examining the evacuation of resi- When Typhoon No. 15 was located in the south- dents in the event of large-scale flooding of a ern ocean waters of Kyushu the day before it made large city landfall in eastern Japan and caused extensive dam- In this study, based on an awareness of the prob- age in September 2011, it fed damp air to the stag- lems described in the previous section, we devel- nated front line on Honshu and caused intermittent, oped a scenario simulator (hereinafter, simulator) to heavy downpours in the Gifu and Aichi prefectures. specifically determine the status of flood damage in At the Shonai River, the watershed for this region, a specific region to examine the problem of evacua- the torrential downpour caused the water level to tion in the event of large-scale flooding in a metro- rise rapidly, reaching a height of 6.23 m, thereby politan area. exceeding the previous peak caused by the Tokai Much of our nation’s simulation research target- torrential downpour in 2000 by approximately 50 ing the evacuation of residents focuses on confined cm. However, while excessive water was observed spaces such as underground complexes3) or targets 210 only a portion of the given region4). There are only teristics of the targeted region, the simulator few simulations that assume the evacuation of a elaborately models the elements that express the large population in a large city5), 6). However, local affected region such as its topography, road net- municipalities are examining the evacuation of resi- work, distribution of residents, and establishment dents. In studies that target large-scale flood damage and layout of disaster prevention facilities. in which an extensive area is submerged in water, at ● The response behavior of residents is an element the very least, the evacuation conditions of the entire that has a major impact on the extent of damage, area of each municipality must be considered. Fur- and therefore, the simulator reflects and models thermore, when a large city is affected, an examina- the residents’ level of awareness to examine ac- tion specifically considering the impact of popula- tual issues and strategies. tion size on the evacuation and devastation condi- ● To examine strategies that aim toward reducing tions is required.