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The Air League Newsletter Issue 6: November/December 2015 (Photo RAF Crown Copyright 2015) FINAL VULCAN TRIBUTE TO BOMBER COMMAND eteran aircraft of past and present RAF combat missions paid tribute in October to the memory of Bomber Command by performing a spectacular mid-air link-up over Lincolnshire. Tornado GR4 fighter bomber crews, whose colleagues are currently taking part in the campaign against Islamic StateV militants over Iraq, flew in formation with former Cold War V-Bomber, Vulcan XH558, to mark the unveiling of the Bomber Command Memorial spire in Lincoln. A 12 (Bomber) Squadron pilot who flew on the sortie the Falklands in the famous ‘Operation Black Buck’ said: “It was a real privilege to fly one last time with mission to deny the Argentines use of the airfield. such a historic and magnificent aircraft. It was a fitting Vulcan pilot Wing Commander Bill Ramsey (retired), tribute that the RAF’s current bomber, the Tornado who flew the delta-winged icon for nine years, said: “I GR4, escorted the old Vulcan bomber, a once in a am really pleased the RAF and Vulcan To The Sky team lifetime opportunity which we were very proud to be came together to set up a Vulcan and Tornado ‘Past a part of.” and Present’ flight; especially on the occasion of the The RAF Marham-based squadron, which this year dedication of the new Bomber Command Memorial in celebrated its centenary, has a distinguished list of Lincoln that commemorates the service and sacrifice of battle honours including combat operations in Iraq, so many brave people.” being the first GR4 unit to operate in Afghanistan, and In addition to the formation spectacular, October saw a supporting long-range bombing raids against Gaddafi- final farewell tour by XH588 over the weekend of 10th and regime targets in Libya. 11th, passing over many of the locations associated with Britain’s only flying Vulcan, which this year completed the V-bombers and over aviation museums and airfields its final flying season, was the first B2 bomber delivered where the “big tin triangle” became such a unique and into RAF service on 1 July 1960 and at 55 years old is popular sight during its revived preservation years. Many the last and oldest of its type anywhere in the world. thousands of onlookers appeared all over the country Despite 24 years’ service in the RAF the Vulcan was for one last glance as it gracefully passed overhead. The only once used in anger – against Port Stanley in “Vulcan Draw” worked its magic to the end. In this issue... Sir Andrew Humphrey Lecture P2-3 ISTAR WARS P4-5 Industry News P6 Members’ news and Diary events P8 An influential champion for aviation in challenging times www.airleague.co.uk 1 UK DEFENCE IN A DANGEROUS WORLD This year’s Air League Sir Andrew Humphrey Lecture was presented by former Defence Minister and active pilot, Sir Gerald Howarth, Member of Parliament for Aldershot. This is an edited version of his thought-provoking and wide-ranging review of Britain’s defence stance in an increasingly challenging global environment. The original lecture is available on the Air League’s website, and we recommend all readers to take advantage of this. illiam Hague said before the 2010 General has a stake in the region which we should not forget - we Election that under a Conservative Government instigated the Five Powers Defence Arrangements in 1971 there would be no strategic shrinkage and that under which we, Australia and New Zealand would seek WBritain would seek to help shape the world in which to protect the interests of newly-independent Malaysia we find ourselves, not simply be shaped by it. The and Singapore. It gives Britain a valuable position. Add Conservatives did not win that election and even had into this potentially toxic mixture North Korea and the we done so the 2010 SDSR was never going to deliver continuing simmering pot of nuclear-powered India and a strategic vision. It had to be Treasury driven as the Pakistan and we can see a potentially very dangerous country stood on the brink of a financial catastrophe - world. Indeed, the new world order is disorder. The trouble our budget deficit stood at more than £150 billion and is that today’s policy is driven by a belief that a key way to represented 11% of the nation’s entire output. Our respond is to increase our intervention ‘upstream’ so that failure to check it would have resulted in the loss of by providing aid to poor and dysfunctional countries we confidence in the international financial community, reduce the causes of tension and thus our need for hard so we had to act fast. I made clear to the then Secretary power. There seems to be a quaint idea that soft power of State, Liam Fox, that I thought we should be finding offers an alternative to hard power. But without hard savings from elsewhere, but we were in coalition with power your soft power is non-existent. Better to carry a the Liberals and therefore not completely in command. big stick and you can then speak softly. Today, there is no such excuse as we approach the SDSR and the CSR due to be announced on the 25th The 2% November. We have had 5 years for the MoD, No 10 and Last year at the NATO summit at Newport our PM rightly the FCO to study the current international situation. reprimanded those member states who failed to adhere Indeed, as the Minister for International Security to the NATO commitment to spend a minimum of 2% of Strategy, I had a hand in developing the Defence GDP on defence. However, throughout the entire General Engagement Strategy which took the first steps in our Election campaign we Conservatives refused to commit to search to apply a political context to today’s defence the UK spending 2%, despite the most clear exhortations needs. So how has the strategic context changed from from our U.S. ally from the President downwards. We really 2010? Clearly, the turmoil created by the Arab spring, cannot afford to ignore this kind of warning. This profound the Syrian uprising, the Libyan campaign, Russia’s reluctance to commit to the NATO 2% was thrown into even annexation of The Crimea and the rise of ISIL have sharper relief by the Conservative leadership’s decision to transformed the international landscape. Significantly, enshrine in law that the UK spends at least 0.7% of GNI on in the space of barely three years those assumptions overseas aid. Leaving aside the fact that so bloated has this made in 2010 were blown apart. None of those events budget become that over 60% of it is dispensed not by the was remotely foreseen. Department itself but through international agencies such as the EU and the World Bank, it can never be a substitute Budget deficits across the western world have seen large for strong defence. We need to spend what is necessary to cuts in defence spending, including in the U.S, and the deliver the defence posture required to meet the threats we principal western democracies have witnessed a decided face both at home and to our wider international interests. reluctance among their electorates to sacrifice any more Sadly, rather than step up to the plate and recognise that lives on foreign excursions. That has manifested itself on current plans the UK risks falling below the 2% figure most obviously in the UK in a Parliamentary defeat in the next year or so, the Government has chosen to re-jig for David Cameron which has instilled in him a greater the formula for calculating the figure. The Chancellor’s degree of caution than he had hitherto shown. However, ‘extra’ 0.5% pa is no more than a rearrangement of the the vote in the House of Commons infected the U.S. PM’s commitment at the time of the last SDSR to a 1% Congress too. I submit that the combination of those cuts real terms increase in the procurement budget which of and that reluctance have not gone unnoticed around the course accounts for about half of all MoD spend. If the world and accordingly increased the potential for serious economy is growing at around 2.5% UK NATO eligible conflicts. As we look forward, it would be a brave man expense would fall from 2.08% in 2015/16 to 1.85% of who relied upon the assumption that Putin’s Russia was GDP in 2020/21 so we would need to spend an extra £1 now content with its current status. Above all, ISIL and billion just to keep pace. It looks as though the gap will be other associated Islamic extremist organisations drawing filled by including expenditure on the intelligence agencies growing support from young men and women brought up from a new ‘Joint Security Fund’ which will rise to £1.5 to respect a completely different set of values now pose billion by 2020 although it is unclear how the allocation of the greatest threat not just to the Middle East but also money from this fund will be calculated. to Europe and beyond as we witness the largest flow of migrants since WW2, generated by the civil war in Syria. State of the Armed Forces Surely the lesson of Iraq and Libya is that before you seek What do we need from SDSR 2015? First, we need to remove a disliked or even murderous regime you have to disabuse ourselves of the idea that sophisticated to calculate whether there exists a competent alternative, technology, essential as it is, is a substitute for numbers.