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Teoría Y Práctica De La Estrategia Hedging: Descifrando La Política

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Teoría Y Práctica De La Estrategia Hedging: Descifrando La Política Tesis doctoral Teoría y práctica de la estrategia hedging: Descifrando la política exterior japonesa ante la incertidumbre del ascenso de China Presentada por Ivan González Pujol Para la obtención del título de Doctor en Sociedad de la Información y el Conocimiento Director: Dr. Lluc López i Vidal (UOC) Co-director: Dr. Oriol Costa Fernández (UAB) Universitat Oberta de Catalunya (UOC) A l’inexorable pas del temps. Al Passat, al Present i al Futur: A la Padrina, a l’Alberto i a l’Alba. Agradecimientos Esta investigación ha sido sin duda una de las empresas más complicadas y estresantes a las que he tenido que afrontarme. Durante los últimos tres años he experimentado momentos de gran expectación por las posibilidades de la investigación e instantes en que la renuncia parecía la única opción. Sin duda, el respaldo de las personas que me han acompañado este tiempo ha devenido fundamental para poder concluir la tesis. Aún recuerdo el día que un «yo» bastante joven enviaba un correo electrónico al Dr. Lluc López para pedirle que fuera mi director de tesis. No solo recibí su ayuda para identificar la estrategia hedging como el objeto de estudio, sino que ha sido el mejor director que cualquier estudiante pudiera desear en el cumplimiento de su doctorado. Por tu guía e inestimable apoyo durante todo el proceso, mil gracias. Estos tres años han transcurrido con la valiosa aportación de numerosas personas. En primer lugar, quiero agradecer el soporte al Dr. Oriol Costa, cuyas contribuciones en el marco metodológico han sido de indudable valía para que la investigación avanzara sin contratiempos significativos. En segundo lugar, al Dr. Tomomi Kozaki, por haberme permitido investigar con él en la Universidad de Senshū y por compartir conmigo su conocimiento sobre la política exterior japonesa. En tercer lugar, a la Cátedra Príncipe de Asturias y a su catedrática, la Dra. Natividad Fernández, por hacer posible mi estancia en la Universidad de Georgetown, así como por su soporte posibilitando las entrevistas v a expertos y el acceso a información de alto interés para la investigación. Asimismo, por ofrecer su ayuda desinteresada cuando me ha sido necesaria, agradezco al conjunto de los miembros del grupo de investigación ALTER, en concreto al Dr. David Martínez y al Dr. Carles Prado; al Dr. Just Castillo; a la Dra. Àngels Pelegrín, y a los profesores de la Facultad de Derecho y Ciencia Política de la Universitat Oberta de Catalunya. Finalmente, quiero reconocer la aportación de los entrevistados que generosamente dedicaron su tiempo para contribuir al desarrollo de la presente investigación. Sin vuestra ayuda esta tesis nunca hubiera sido posible. En paralelo, esta tesis ha sido posible gracias al apoyo económico de la Universitat Oberta de Catalunya a través de sus becas de investigación predoctoral y sus diferentes ayudas económicas para fomentar las estancias de investigación y la movilidad. Ello conlleva el imprescindible reconocimiento a aquellos trabajadores de la Escuela de Doctorado y de la OSRT que lo hacen posible. Asimismo, agradezco también a la embajada de Japón en España y al Ministerio japonés de Educación, Cultura, Deporte, Ciencia y Tecnología, quienes creyeron que el proyecto basado en esta tesis era digno de recibir la beca Monbukagakusho, lo cual aseguró mi estancia en Japón y garantizó la incorporación de valiosa información. En última instancia, pero no menos importante, gracias a mi familia y amigos. Gracias a mis padres, Dolors y José Antonio por inculcarme que el saber no ocupa lugar y a mi hermano Raul por haber sido siempre un modelo a seguir. Gracias, Alberto, por ofrecerme tu apoyo incondicional; Lidia, por haber sido una gran amiga incluso en mis vi momentos de mayor retraimiento, y Chihiro, por tu inestimable ayuda durante mi estancia en Japón. Gracias a todos. vii Resum Hedging és una estratègia de política exterior comprensiva que combina comportaments de competició i cooperació. Tot i que la introducció del terme «hedging» a la disciplina de les Relacions Internacionals és recent, algunes de les aproximacions a aquesta estratègia han esdevingut rellevants per explicar els canvis en la política exterior dels Estats. A partir d’aquestes contribucions prèvies, la nostra recerca perfecciona el marc teòric i analític de l’estratègia hedging. La nostra recerca té una naturalesa eminentment teòrica. El seu èmfasi es concentra en dues qüestions: clarificar el marc teòric de l’estratègia hedging i millorar el seu model analític. Per a fer-ho, hem emprat una aproximació metodològica backward-looking i problem-driven. En aquest sentit, atès que sabem que els Estats implementen estratègies que combinen comportaments competitius i cooperatius, hem cercat les causes d’aquests comportaments. Així, hem formulat les variables en dos nivells d’anàlisis: el sistèmic i el domèstic. Finalment, hem aplicat les nostres proposicions teòriques a la política exterior del Japó envers la Xina. La tesis respon a quatre preguntes de recerca. La pregunta principal versa sobre les característiques de l’estratègia hedging i el seu encaix en les teories existents de les Relacions Internacionals. El orígens teòrics de l’estratègia hedging poden traçar-se fins a la teoria de l’equilibri de poder. Tot i això, les aproximacions institucionalistes tingueren ix un paper important en descriure les estratègies mixtes i en posar de rellevància el rol de l'economia i la diplomàcia en les anàlisis de política exterior. La segona pregunta gira al voltant del model analític de Kuik, el qual millorem mitjançant la redefinició de la majoria dels seus elements constitutius. La tercera pregunta al·ludeix a les variables independents i intervinents de l’estratègia hedging. Per una part, la incertesa sistèmica actua com a variable independent de l’estratègia hedging. Per l’altra part, les variables domèstiques operen com a variables intervinents, atès que emmenen els responsables polítics a implementar una estratègia hedging que tendeixi més a la cooperació o a la competició. Finalment, la quarta pregunta fa referència a l'avaluació del nostre model analític. Aquesta avaluació es duu a terme a través de l’estudi sobre com s’ha implementat l’estratègia hedging japonesa en relació a la Xina des del 2001. A la tesis demostrem que el hedging és una estratègia racional en casos d’incertesa sistèmica. Sota aquesta condició sistèmica, els Estats reben incentius per a comportar-se de manera incoherent entre la competició i la cooperació, per la qual cosa implementen una estratègia hedging. Aquestes incoherències sorgeixen de la interacció entre els interessos estatals a curt i llarg termini i de com els responsables polítics perceben la incertesa. Alhora, també provem que el nostre model analític és empíricament útil per a destacar les característiques de la política exterior d’un Estat i per a ressaltar els seus canvis a través del temps. x Resumen Hedging es una estrategia de política exterior comprehensiva que combina comportamientos de competición y cooperación. Aunque la incorporación del término «hedging» a la disciplina de las Relaciones Internacionales es reciente, algunas aproximaciones académicas a dicha estrategia han devenido relevantes para explicar los cambios en la política exterior de los Estados. A partir de estas contribuciones previas, la presente investigación perfecciona el marco teórico y analítico de la estrategia hedging. Nuestra investigación tiene una naturaleza eminentemente teórica. Su énfasis se concentra en dos cuestiones: clarificar el marco teórico de la estrategia hedging y mejorar su modelo analítico. Para ello, hemos adoptado una aproximación metodológica backward-looking y problem-driven. En este sentido, puesto que sabemos que los Estados implementan estrategias que combinan comportamientos competitivos y cooperativos, hemos buscado las causas de dichos comportamientos. De este modo, hemos formulado las variables en dos niveles de análisis, el sistémico y el doméstico. Finalmente, hemos aplicado nuestras proposiciones teóricas a la política exterior de Japón con relación a China. La tesis responde a cuatro preguntas de investigación. La pregunta principal versa sobre las características de la estrategia hedging y su encaje en las teorías existentes de las Relaciones Internacionales. Los orígenes teóricos de la estrategia hedging pueden trazarse xi hasta la teoría del equilibrio de poder. No obstante, las aproximaciones institucionalistas tuvieron un papel importante en describir las estrategias mixtas y en poner de relevancia el rol de la economía y la diplomacia en los análisis de política exterior. La segunda pregunta gira entorno al modelo analítico de Kuik, el cual mejoramos mediante la redefinición de la mayoría de sus elementos constitutivos. La tercera pregunta se refiere a las variables independientes e intervinientes de la estrategia hedging. Por una parte, la incertidumbre sistémica actúa como variable independiente de la estrategia hedging. Por la otra parte, las variables domésticas operan como variables intervinientes, puesto que inducen a los responsables políticos a implementar una estrategia hedging tendiente a la cooperación o a la competición. Finalmente, la cuarta pregunta concierne a la evaluación de nuestro modelo analítico. Esta evaluación se ha realizado a través del estudio sobre cómo se ha implementado la estrategia hedging japonesa en relación con China desde 2001. En la tesis demostramos que el hedging es una estrategia racional en casos de incertidumbre sistémica. Bajo dicha condición sistémica,
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