30 &h4vior AnalysislindSociRl Action- Vcdume 5, Numbfm, 1 /if 21 1986

Contingencies to Prevent Catastrophe: Behavioral Psychology and the Anti-Nuclear Anns Movement Christopher M. Murphy" State University of New York at Stony Brook

l Abstract On the Importance of the Peace Movement An active public strongly opposed to the nuclear arms race Is the anti-nucleararms movementourbesthopefor deve­ may offerthe besthope to preventweapons escalation and thereby loping solutions to the nuclear dilemma? Certain perspectives decrease the riskofnudearioar4 In spiteofMarxist interpretations to from the political left contend that it is not. These arguments thecontrary 1 thispaper argues thatthepeace movement isnecessary generally involve a Marxist interpretation; maintaining that the and potentiaUy powerful in creating social change. Some possible arms raceis fueledby the capitalist system. of military-industrial applications of behavioral psycJwlogy to the peace movement are partnership especially prevalent in the United States, examined. Knowledge about response allocation; self-control, and Lengthy supportive evidence is available. For example, the promotion ofnoveltyin responding maybolstertheeffectiveness historically the U.s. military-industrial partnership in traduced of public involvement r At the same time, efforts to create social the Atomic Bomb, the Hydrogen Bomb, the Submarine Laun­ chnnge providea proving ground for beluwioral principles. ched Ballistic Missile, and Multiple Independently Targetable Re-entry Vehicles. In fact; exceptfor theSoviet introduced Inter­ continental Ballistic Missile, the U .. S. arms development com­ munity has generatedvirtuallyeverymajor advancementin the Introduction nuclear arms race. Furthermore, the U.S4 economy is especially dependent In the1950' S T some patential goals of a behavi 0 ral technol­ on military spending to support advanced technology. In the ogy included that "men be happy, informed, skillful, well be­ 47)~ periodsince theinventionof theatomic bombapproximately42 haved and productive" (Skinner, 1955-56, p. In the 1980'81 percent of the U.S. scientific workforce has been engaged in theworldis faced.with firststrikenuclearweapons, an anusrace military related projects (ReppyJ 1985). As a direct result of this escalating into outer space, and knowledge about the devastat­ profligacy~ there are hundreds of thousands of people, both mil­ ing climatic effects of nuclear war. Thus; a more fundamental itary and civilian} with a vestedpersonal interestinmaintaining goalof a behavioral technology is continued survivalin a peaee-. thearms race. SimilarseH-interest exists for those who invest in ful world. Those who work to develop and apply the science of weapons industries. Like addicts suffering withdrawal, econo­ behavior possess skills crucial to this goal. mies dependent upon military spending "fixes" would suffer Onealternative to idlenessis theapplication of behavioral immense short term crises if the anns race were halted (see psychologyinactive oppositionto thenuclear arms race ~ Attack­ Nevin, 19821 for discussion of the arms race as a self...control ing such a large scale social problem would advance the under­ paradigm). standing of behavioral principles as well. But before exploring the possible gains of such a partnership, the need for the anti... nuclear arms movement, and its potentialeffectiveness require more careful examination.

.,This paper isbased, in part, onasymposium presentationatthemeetings oftheAssociationfor BehaviorAnalysis~ Mny i 1985 ~ Theauthorwishes tothankJohn Neuin for his supportive enrou ragement in. the preparation ofthis work; and Karen Emmons andAdele Hayesforhelpful comments anan earlier draft. Requests for reprints shouldbe sent to: Christopher M. Murphy, Department of Psychology, SUNYat 5ttmyBrook, Stony Brook, New York; 11794. 1 Throughout the paperthe terms "peace activism'! and "anti-nuclear arms activism" are used. interchangeably. It could be argued that these terms shouldbeusedseparatelyr asNanti...nucleararmsactivism" implies amore restricted focus thandoes"peaceacdvism. h Yet,evenif all nuclear weapons wereeliminatedduringtime of peace, whatwould stopgovernmentsfrom building new oneswith the adventof war?The knowledge of physicsand chemistry needed to design and build new bombs wiDnot disappear with disarmament. Therefore, the eventual goal for both "peace" and I~ anti­ nuclear arms" activists must be the abolition not only of the accoutrements of war, but of war itself CONTINGENCIES TO PREVENT CATASTROPHE~ I Christopher M, Murphy 131

Tworelated conclusions canbe drawnfrom the beliefthat phasize the rationale of peace activism in general. Given poten­ the capitalistmilitary-induetrial partnership is primarily respon... tially infinite costs, rationality dictates the use of whatever sible for maintaining the arms race. First, as in any liberal social means presently available in designing a world free from the reform, the prospect that the peace movement might prolong threat of nuclear war4 the death of a malignant capitalist system without ever solving The argument remains, however, that calls for social re­ long term social problems must be considered (Rakes, 1980). form within theU.5. capitalist economy will nevergenerate the Band-aid solutions will not suffice if the arms race is somehow counter-momentum needed to haltthe arms race.Thereare sev.. inherently maintained by capitalism. Reorganization of society eral reasons why this might not be true. The first is historical would be the only solution. Since this question is presently un­ precedence, from other social movements as well as from the answerable, the potential gains ofthe peace movement mustbe anti-nucleararmsmovement. In recentdecades civil rightsactiv ... carefully balanced against the potential long-term costs of per­ ists and feminists have made considerable progress in promot­ petuating a system which drives the arms race. ing the rights of the disenfranchised. Although a great deal of The second related conclusion is that only a popularwork­ racism and sexism remain embedded in the fabric of American ing class revolution could generate the counter-momemtum culture.. tangible strideshavebeen made. Creatingsocialchange necessary to halt the arms race (Ulman, 1986)~ This argument is a slow and difficultprocess. Othersocialmovements teach us rests in part on the notion that the structure of a capitalist econ­ that change can be echieved, but only through many years of omy could not withstand, and therefore would not allow, the concerted and creative effort radical change needed to end strategic arms production. In the struggle against the arms race, social activism has While just treatment of the subtlety and complexity of yielded some perhaps less revolutionary yet significant results. these positions is not within the scope of the present paper ~ The popular movement opposed to atmospheric testing of nu­ nevertheless they clearly challenge the peace movement to de­ clear bombs is generally credited with a major role in bringing fend calls for socia Ichange within the capitalis t system. To begin about the Threshold Test Ban Treatyin the early 1960's (Boyer, such a defense one could argue that the collapse of capitalism 1982). Similarly, in the late 1970's and early1980's popular activ­ may not be on the immediate horizon. Yet current exigencies ismhelpedputthenuclearfreeze high on the Americanpolitical demand immediate action onthe problem of nuclear arms. The agenda. 1980'8 are critical years in the arms race. Due to an American Although it can be argued that these successes are small administration which does not supportarms control OJ restraint in weapons development {Scheer, 1982)J the arms race is now and insignificant, the magnitudeofpublicactivity in opposition to the arms race has been growing in recent years. Millions of escalating into outer space. American and European citizens have shown a deep commit­ This escalation will bring virtually total automation of the ment to ending the arms race through social action, The award­ decision to fire nuclear defenses. Certain aspects of strategic ing of the 1985 Nobel Peace Prize to DrS4 Lown and Chazov. nuclear defense, specifically a ttack of boost phase rockets~ antinuclear arms activist physicians, likewise highlights public would have to be capable ofalmost instantaneous response to supportfor this cause. As yet unseen results rnaybe ingestation r Soviet missile launch. The prospect of computer malfunction Extensivepublicinvolvementis causefor optimism; giventhatit mcreases dramatically with the complexity of such a system is tempered by a realistic assessment of the effort required to (Lin, 1985).In addhion, Soviet leadersperceive strategicnuclear foster social change. defense as an element of first strike capability, thereby adding another level of fear and mistrust to the existing acrimony. The potential effectiveness of the peace movement is fur.. ther evidenced by the threat it represents to established struc­ Hope should not be lost though, because many years or tures of power. On May 9J 1982; the Washington Post quoted a even decades will be needed to produce a space-based missile memorandum from Eugene Rostow, director of the U.S. Arms defense. In fact, the Pentagon has estimated that eight separate ControlandDisarmamentAgency, to NationalSecurityAdvisor technical problems, each as large in scope as theManhattan Pro­ William Clark about the growing anti-nuclear arms movement. ject, mustbe solved in orderto producea StarWars defense (The The memo stated: Union of Concerned Scientists, 1984). This situation decries the need. for immediate sodal response~ before this destabilizing there is participation on an increasing scale in the development goes too far. U.5.,ofthreegroups whosepotentialimpactshould be cause for concern. They are the churches, the In balance, the compelling need for arms reduction out­ 'loyal opposition', and perhaps most importantlyJ weighs the uncertain costs of liberal social action. The nuclear the unpoliticized public (Quoted in Scheer, 1982~ arms race is in a sense the reverse of Pascal's 'famous wager on p.85). theexistenceofGod (Nevin; 1982)~ Pascal reasoned that if there is the possibilityof an infinite gain (eternalIife) then the tational person should do anything possible to obtain it (wager on the The memo outlined a week long media campaign de­ existenceofGodby becominga believer). Likewise, ifthereis the signed to counterGround Zero Week's efforts to educate large possibility of an infinite loss (the extinction of humanity and life numbers of people about the hazards of nuclear war, A govern­ onearth)then therationalpersonshoulddoanythingpossible to ment agency so concerned about an awakening of the "unpoliti­ avoidit (workto avertthe possibilityof nuclearwarby becoming cized public," and willing to go to greatlengths toquell growing an activist). Although Nevin argued that an appeal to reason anti..nuclear arms sentiment, indicates that the nuclear arms may not bring converts to the peace movement, it serves to-em- status quo is endangered by the peace movement, 32f Christopher M. Murphy' CONTUfGENCIES TO PREVENT CATASTROPHE

Perhaps the strongest argument against viewing revolu­ able, and thatcitizenshavea moralresponsibility to preventwar tion as the only answer to the arms race is entirely pragmatic, (Tyler & McGraw, 1983)4 Although these cognitive variables Unless salient public forces such as the many groups actively have only been demonstrated to be correlated with peace activ­ opposing the arms race intervene within the current system ism; and therefore do not wanant conclusions about the causes first, a revolutionaryredistribution of power mightbring about ofactivism, neverthelessMook'S point is well taken. Thestakes the nuclear holocaust that it seeks to avert, For, beyond an ap­ are too high to ignore any potentialsource of understanding in peal to humanitarianism, whatis to stop the rich and powerful attempting to alleviate the preparations for nuclear war, from relying on whatever force is available to maintain their While the usefulness of cognitive mediation in under­ privileged status? standing activism needs to be more fully explored, the impor­ tance of more readily accessible processes suchas response aDo­ cation, stimulus control, and reinforcement deserves emphasis. What Can Behavioral Psychology Contribute to the Thus, the application of behavioral principles in the ensuing Anti-Nuclear Arms Movement? discussion is conducted in a pragmatic spirit, rather than a dog.. maticone. Giventhata sustainedandgrowing socialmovementmay Due to thecomplexityofthe subject, anunderstandingof be our best hope for developing constructive solutions to the peace activism as operant behavior must begin with basic con­ nucleardilemma, whatcanbehavioralpsychology contributeto cepts. All operants are classes of responding. Each response thiseffort? The answeris twofold. First.. behavioralpsychology within an operantclass m ust possess the propertyorproperties presents a useful framework for understanding the behavior of upon which reinforcement for the entire class canbemade con­ individual peaceactivists. Suchanalysis canbe conduetedwith tingent (Schick, 1971). Clearly, peace activismis too broada cate­ the goal of arranging contingencies that promote public gory of activity to bedescnbedas anoperant No single property in voIvem.ent. of form or effect is shared by the various responses that fall under this label, Second, behavioral psychology can offer practical guid­ ance for the peacemovement through application of known be­ Nevin (1984) characterized peace activism as an open havioral principles and systematicresearch. Deeperknowledge endedrepertoire, or molar response class. Peace activism... then, about the behavior of individual activists could help direct the is a moregeneralclass of respondingcomprisedof manyrelated efforts of organizersworking ona local scale. Behavioral theory operant classes r Activities suchas atrending meetings, writing mayalso help peacemovement organizers working on a larger letters to public offictels, marching in peace rallies; or collecting scale to choose more effective movement goals and strategies. signatures onanti-arms petitions fit the description of operants. Within each of these types of activism, individual responses As an approach to understanding human activity; behav­ share many properties upon which reinforcement could be iorism's most consistently important contnbution hasbeen an contingent. emphasisonthe functions servedbyactions. From this perspec.. tive, complexbehaviorsuchas peaceactivismissomefunctionof The various activities in an individual's peace activism its discriminated consequences. This natural scientific perspec­ repertoire are related through the process of response general.. tive tends to demystify behavior I withoutdenying the rich com­ ization. Reinforcement or punislunent for a response in one of plexityinvolved in its deterrrdnation. Nevin (1984)claimed, "a these operantclasses may affect the probability of responses in behavioralapproach does not necessarily do anythingradically relatedclasses. Forexample, a stronglypositiveexperienceatan different, butit can do more, better, andfaster, by being specific anti-nuclear arms demonstration might increase not only the in its goals and systematic in its methods. u likelihood of attending future demonstrations, but of writing letters to congressmen, or attendingorganizational meetings as This paper is not intended to argue against a cognitive well. approach in understanding political activism. In fact, cognitive mediating variables might add to our understanding of peace Some important suggestions arise from constming peace activism, as Mook (1983)has argued for understanding the nu­ activism as operantbehavior. First, organizers should focus on cleardilemmaingeneral. Tetlock (1983) .. for example, examined those contingencies of reinforcement and punishment which poll tical leaders' judgementst claimingthaterrorsandbias often help determine the individual's commitment to peace activism. resultfromllhighly simplifiedimagesof theintemationalscene;' All too often, newcomers to an organizational meeting are ig­ (p. 67). He maintained that "complex information processing noredintheflury of ongoingbusiness. In addition" they maybe maybe mostdifficultto achievewhenit is mostneeded- in the given boring task work such as stuffing envelopes or hanging highly threateningandchaotic environmentof the intern ationa1 posters or flyers, crisis" (p4 80)4 Cognitive research concerned with decision mak­ An alternative approach based on behavioral principles ing underconditionsof uncertainty(e.g .... Kahneman& Tversky, mightprompt responses from newcomers thatproduce greater 1979)mighthelpavoid the devastatingeffects of a singleerrorin immediate reinforcement. The principles involved in shaping judgement during an international crisis. behavior will be critical in selecting the appropriate initial in.. Several cognitive research findings are more directly rele­ volvement responses4 Newcomers could beasked to help com­ vant to peace activism. Activistsreport more concreteimages of pose a letterto a politicianor diplomat,for example, or to suggest nudearwarthan non-activists (Fiske, Pratto &tPavekhak, 1983). ways for thegroupto bettereducate theirconununityonnuclear They perceive a greater risk of nuclear war than non-activists. armsissues. Thosewhoarefirst becominginvolvedwitha peace tend to believe that nuclear war is preventable; but not surviv.. groupcanalsoserve as a sourceof feedback on how the groupis CONTINGENCIES TO PREVENT CATASTROPHE: I ChristPpho M~ Murphy I 33

reaching the community ~ FurtherI new activists can provide a activism. Changes in this allocation of responding as activists sou rce of data and directionfor techniques used by the group to move toward more committed longer term involvement could expand membership. help identify contingencies associated with specific forms of ac­ tivism. This could also provide clues as to why so many people As part of the shapingprocess, initial activities shouldbe participate in the peace movement for a very short time only. followed with an opportunity to commit to further involvement. Further, such an analysis might suggest strategies to keep activ­ Newcomers could be asked to bring refreshments to the next ists involved for longer periods of time. Greater understanding meeting} for example, or to attend committee meetings, or col­ ofcontingenciesoperatingto determineindividuals'peacework lect petition signatures from friends. Ainslee (1974)demonstra­ would also be an important step in the direction of maximizing ted that even pigeons can use commitment responses to facili­ the effectiveness of efforts to induce social change. tate the shift toward more delayed reinforcers. Elaborate forms of commitment responding may be needed to bridge the gap The promotion of novelty in responding is another poten­ from the more certain short... term reinforcers of not being an tial application to consider! partlybecause thatmay increase the activist (more free time. less constant thought about the horrors chances of emitting a response that produces reinforcement of nuclear war! etc.) to the less certain long-term reinforcers of (Staddon & Simmelhag, 1971), but perhaps more importantly, activism (social change and nuclear disarmament). because new and novel variants of activism often gain wide­ Similarly, a high degree of social reinforcement for initial spread public attention. Students at Brown University, for ex­ involvement should be arranged. Research on anti-nuclear ample, received national media coverage for their 1984petition power activism in the Three Mile Island area after the reactor requestingtheuniversityhealth serviceto stockpile cyanidepills accident there indicated that social networks are stronglyasso­ for distribution in the event of a nuclear war. Students at many colleges across the country followed suit with similar requests. ciated with initiation of activism. In fact" friends. associates and During the same year activists in Seattle painted silhouettes on relativeswere as predictive of activism as werepoliticalbeliefsOr attitudes (Walsh & Warland, 1983).Social reinforcement is prob­ the city' s sidewalks to symbolize victims vaporizedin a nuclear ably instrumental in maintaining activism as well, attack. Again.. this novel variant of activism received wide­ spread media coverage. Application of the Three Mile Island findings to the peace movement maybe somewhatlimited because theyrefer to mem­ Behavioral research with both humans and animals, al.. bers of a community responding to a social problem in their though relatively scarce inthis area, has suggested ways to pro­ immediate geographic area. In addition" the association be­ mote novelty in behavior (see Winston & Baker, 1985, for a re­ tween political beliefs and attitudes and peace activism appears view). Pryor, Haag, and O'Reilly (1969) significantly increased the frequency of novel responses in dolphins by reinforcing be­ to befairlystrong (Tyler & McGrnw 1 1983). Nonetheless, group organization and activity should be as pleasant and sociable as haviors that had not been previously observed by the re­ possible to encourage long-term involvement. searchers. Similarly, Maltzman (1960) reported training origi­ nalityinhumanverbalrespondingby havingsubjectsgive many The question of whether beliefs or social networks are different responses to the same stimulus, Furthermore, he more predictive of initiating activism is important in another found that "reinforcement of one instance of original behavior dimension. It raises the issue of whetherorganizers should first increases the response tendency for other instances of such be­ induce beliefs through education/ and then encourage activity" havior under different stimulus conditions" (p. 240). Finally, or whether they should try to hook people into acting first, as­ Bandura (1977) has described the role of modeling (observa­ suming that their beliefs will follow accordingly. VVhile this tionalleaming) in the acquisition of novel sequences of behav­ question remains open! one recommendation is clear. Activists ior} a fine example of which is the imitation of the Brown Univer­ tend to believe thatpublic involvement can prevent nuclearwar sity student's request for cyanide pills. (Tyler & McGraw! 1983). Those who would focus on changing beliefs first should spend less time convincing people that nu­ The deliberate prompting, emission, and reinforcement clearwar is bad, and more time convincing people that activism of new types of activism, by members of the peace movement can do something about it. clearly has the potential to reach a wide audience, via the mass medial with messages about the need for disarmament. How­ Morawski and Goldstein (1985) related that many psy­ ever/ it couldbe argued that the deep changesin society needed chologists are currently serving as consultants to anti-nuclear to effectively counter the arms race are not generated by media arms groups. It behooves behaviorally oriented researchers to hype. Some might also claim that media "blitzers" lend a false come up with sound recommendations in this regard. Because sense of accomplishment and unwarranted zealousness to the peace activism is action-oriented and goal directed" tactfully pre­ movement. This argument, which is analogous to problems sented behavioral principles shouldappeal to any more eclectic with non..contingentreinforcement (Skinner, 1981)1 asserts tha t psychoJogists who may be doing this consulting. the magnitude of reinforcement is not commensurate with the Although this trend is very encouraging" consultation is behavioral output. This discrepancy, combined with the low not enough. Systematic research on the behavior of individual probability that large magnitude reinforcers for activism will activists is sorely needed. The exigencies of the social and politi­ continue indefinitely, may increase the likelihood that peace cal environmentpreclude the levelof control normallyobtained activism will extinguish rapidly. Despite this concern, it is clear in the experimental analysis of behavior. Yet less rigorously COn­ that media coverage reaches many people! and provides oppor­ trolled methods are available. One starting point for such re­ tunities for numerous observationalleaming effects for both ac­ search might beto gather observational data on the manner in tivists and nonactivists: acquisition of novel sequences of behav ~

whichindividuals allocate their time to different form s of peace iort facilitation of responses 'Withinthe individual"s behavioral 34/ Christopher M. Mutplty I CONTINGENOES TO PREVENT CATASTROPHE

repertoire that are not currently emitted}" disinhibition ofinhib­ simply elaborating the types of strategies likely to bring about ited behaviors, and of course vicarious reinforcement (particu­ small wins. larly for individuals already emitting peace-related behaviors) In a further illustration of disproportionate movement (Bandura1fTl7). Whiletheremaybe no substitutefor the tedious goals, millions demonstrated against the emplacement of U.5. toil of strong organization; ongoing media attention plays an cruise and Pershing missiles in Europe in 1983. They were indespensible role in promoting the peace movement. n protesting a decision to which NATO and the United States Traditionally, behavior analysis has dealt only with the were already deeply committed. Even the active objection of behaviorofindividualorganisms. Theprecedingdiscussionhas millions could nothavereversed this decision, Insofaras block­ beenconsistentwiththisconvention L Yet because theindividual ing Euromissile deployment was the goal of these demonstra­ activistoperates in a com piexsocialandpoliticalclimate another tionsI highattritionrates in peacemovement numbersdueto the fruitful approach is to considerpeace activism as behavior in an lack of reinforcement in the political environment would be aggregate, on the level of a social movement, predicted, Data published by Baum (1974) suggested that an aggreo­ In summary, behavioral principles could be brought to gategroupoffree-ranging wild pigeons allocated responsesin a bearon future mass activism, on both the individual and aggre­ pattern consistent with the generalized matching law. Thus the gate levels. More carefully engineered positive feedback from behavior of an unspecified group of organisms fell under the the social environmentoftheindividualaswellas from the polit­ control of specific discriminative stimuli, and was sensitive to icalenvironmentof the movementwillallowfor more consistent reinforcement schedules on alternate response keys. Although and realistic opposition to the arms race. extrapolation of this data to-humans must be cautious, some interesting questions can be posed. For example, does an aggre.. gate human group; such as the anti...nuclear arms movement, What Can the Peace Movement Contribute to respond analogouslyto specificstirn uti?Are suchmovements as Behavioral Psychology? a whole sensitive to reinforcement throughchange in the social and political environment? Research needed to help bolster the peace movement Writers working in a less scientific arena often use this could also help advance behavioralpsychology. The resolution typeof reasoning in theiranalysis of peaceactivism. Salient pub­ of poll tical tensions, including the fervent escalationofthe arms race, represents a fascinating forum for examining behavioral lic events are considered the determiners of movement activity + For example... an article in Foreign Policy by Van Voorst (1982) principles, In a chapter on the relation between basic and ap­ attributes the burgeoning peace movement of the 1980"8 to plied research in psychology, Baer (1978) argued: Reagan ad.ministration claims that nuclearwar is winnable. Ad­ miral Gene laRocque (1983) similarly referred to Uthejingoism It is in exactly the loose, largely uncontrolled set­ of President Reagan and his close associates" (p. 29)4 tings in which social problems are analyzed that screening for generality should occur. Generality In infonnal discussions} members of the nuclear freeze will determine the basic importance of any variable, campeign report a decline in ranks in the period after the 1984­ reinforcement-based or otherwise, for theory. To elections. A behavioral analysis of this attrition identifies a lack putit differently, whatworkson the socialproblems of reinforcement through social change, since no comprehen­ is what deserves to be countedamong themost fun... sive nor even a partial.freeze has been negotiated. Again, a spe­ damental variables of a unified behavior theory (p. cific social and political circumstance, in this case the lack of 15). reinforcement, appears to be functionally related to the change in an aggregate group's responding. Obse.rvationalresearchoneffective peaceactivists, would While thisapproach no doubt oversimplifies the complex follow a trend suggested by Neuringer (1984): environmental control of social behavior, certain analytic tools used to study the behaviorofindividual organisms could prove ifa majorconcernis howbestto influence or control helpful in understanding the behavior of complex social move­ anotherorganism, thenitmightbebestto study the ments with unspecified membership. For example, given that behavior of successful politicians, or of priests and the reeentdeclinein the freezemovementis dueat leastin partto other persons of religion, or of successful animal alack of tangibleresults, behaviorists mightattempt to estimate trainers (p.400401)~ the typesandmagnitudeof socialchangelikelyto maintainsuch a movement, Although this appears to be a highly speculative In the same article, Neuringer called for evaluating re­ endeavor.. organizers could use estimates of this type in an at­ searchbased on its potential for allevia ting humansuffering,"As temptto schedulesuccessful outcomes. Ifmovementgoals were kept within the boundaries of obtainable yet important suc­ an evaluativecriterion for basicresearchthis is problematic. The cesses, then reinforcement in the form of social change would relief of human suffering which might result from a program of basic research is notalwaysdear. Evenas anevaluativecriterion maximize public involvement, for applied. research a similarargument for "social validity" has This approach is consistent with the philosophy of small been incisively criticized by Dietz (1978)4 Yet, the criterion of wins (Weick, 1984). By estimating the magnitude of success melioration finds its place in guiding research on more global likely to maintain and expand public activism. it goes beyond applications of behavioral principles. Any contribution to un- CONTINGENCIES TO PREVENT CATASTROPHE; I Christopher M. Murphy 1 35

derstandinganderadicalingtheannsrace certainly satisfiesthis Fiske, S.T. f Pratte, F' I & Pavalehak, M.A. (1983). Citizens' images of nuclear war: Contents and consequences. Tournal of Sodm Is­ aim. sues l 39; 41.-65. Finally; the peace movement endeavors to provide a Kahnernan, D. &: Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory; An analysis of world safe from the threat of nuclear holocaust. A single break­ decision under risk, Econometrka,. 47" 263-269. down in deterrence could destroybehaviorism and psychology LaRocquer G.R. (1983). America..~ s nuclear ferment: Opportunities for along with ourentire intellectual history and culture, The inter­ change. Annalsofthe American Academy ofPoliticaland Sodsl est of all people is at stake. 5dmce, 469 (Sept.), 28--37. Lin, H. (1985)~ Thedevelopmentofsoftwarefor ballistic missile defense,

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Skinner, B.F. (1981 r April). Whydo wenotact to saveourworld? Robert L Watson Lecture, The University of New Hampshire. Staddon, J~E.R+ &: Simmelhag, V.L. (1971). The "superstition" experi.. References ment: A reexamination of its implications for theprinciples of adaptive behavior. PsycJwlogic41 R.euiew, 78r 3-43. J(}UT~ Ainslee, G.W ~ (1974)+ Impulse control in pigeons. lournal of the Experi­ Tetlock, P.E. (1983). Polieymakers' imagesof international conflict. ~ ~ me11tn1 Analysis ofBehavior, 21, 485489. nalof SociJlI Issues 39 67-86+ T~R+ Basr,D .M~ (1978).Ontherelation betweenbasic andappliedresearch. In Tyler, & McGraw, K+M. (1983). The threat of nuclear war: Risk A+C. Catania and T .A. Brigham (Eds.) I-landbook ofapplied be~ interpretation andbehavioral response+ TournaI of Social Issues, 39~ 25-40~ hamar analysi6: Social andinstructional processes. New York: Ir­ vinton Publishers. Ulman, J.D~ (1986). Working class strategies for world peace. Behavir>r AcHon~ Bandura, A. (1977). Social learning theory. EngJewood Cliffs, N.J ~: Analysis and Socud 5; 37-44. Prentice-Hall. The Union of Concerned Scientists (1984). Space based missile defense MA~ Baum, W.M. (1974). Choice in free..ranging wild pigeons. Sciem:e., ]85/ briefing paper. Cambridge 78-79. VanVoorsr. J.a.(1982). The critical masses. Foreign Policy; 48(Fall)182-93. Boyer, P. (1982)+ From activism to apathy: The American people and Walsh, E.). &;Warland~ R~H. (1983)+ Socialmovementinvolvementin the 1963~ ~ nuclear weapons, 1980r [ouma! of American History 701 wakeof a nuclearaccident:Activists and free riders in theTMI 764~180. 821..844. area. American Socioiagical Reviews 481

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