The Crown Estate

Land East of Barton Road

Transport Appraisal Report

May 2017

Contents

EXECTUTIVE SUMMARY ...... 1

Site Location ...... 1 Pedestrian & Cyclist Accessibility ...... 1 Bus Accessibility ...... 2 Rail Accessibility ...... 2 Vehicular Accessibility ...... 2

1 INTRODUCTION ...... 4

2 BASELINE CONTEXT ...... 5

Site Location ...... 5 Land North of Luton and Sundon RFI (Rail Freight Interchange) ...... 5 Walking and Cycling ...... 6 Local Facilities ...... 6 Public Transport ...... 7 Bus ...... 7 Rail ...... 8

3 ACCESS STRATEGY ...... 10

Planned Infrastructure ...... 10

4 SUMMARY & CONCLUSIONS ...... 13

Overall Conclusions ...... 13 Overall Sustainability ...... 13

Figures

Figure 1 - Site Location Plan Figure 2 - Local Facilities Plan Figure 3 - Cycling Isochrone Figure 4 - Bus Routes Figure 5 - Luton Northern Bypass – Route Options

Appendices

Appendix A - WYG Access Feasibility Report

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EXECTUTIVE SUMMARY

Site Location

The Site is located on the northern edge of Luton, approximately 5.2km from Luton Town Centre. The Site is also approximately 3.8 km north-east of Rail Station and 5.5km from Luton Rail Station.

The western border of the Site, extends along Barton Road (A6) from Great Lane northwards to the access to New Farm, Streatley (a distance of approximately 630 metres). The southern perimeter of the Site is formed by the built up area comprising primarily of residential housing in Turnpike Drive. The north and east borders are made up largely of open space and farm land.

A number of key facilities are available within a distance of 2km from the Site such as retail, community and public facilities as well as leisure destinations.

A Framework Plan for the Land North of Luton (situated immediately to the west of the Site, otherwise known as the North Luton Strategic Allocation – NLSA) was adopted in March 2015 and set out a vision and strategy for a sustainable new development in an area stretching from the M1 to the A6 Barton Road. It was envisaged that the Land North of Luton would provide a mix of market and affordable housing, commercial development, new schools, accessible open space, and sports and leisure facilities.

Pedestrian & Cyclist Accessibility

In terms of pedestrian and cyclist accessibility, the Site is well connected to the existing footway/cycleway network:

 There is a footway/cycleway on the western side of Barton Road in the vicinity of the Site. There is also a footway/cycleway on the eastern side of Barton Road, which commences at the southwest corner of the Site then runs south along Barton Road (the cycle route leads to the town centre).  The footway/cycleway on Barton Road offers a traffic-free route. This is part of the National Cycle Network and connects to the National Cycle Route 6 located to the south of the Site, linking Luton with destinations such as Market Harborough, Northampton and Milton Keynes.

Land East of Barton Road 1 Transport Appraisal Report May 2017

 The Land North of Luton site, when built, will provide significant opportunities for residents of the Site to access local amenities such as primary schools and a local centre. This would be encourage through the provision of safe crossing opportunities on Barton Road between the two sites.  The Land north of Luton site would include a number of amenities. Whilst a planning application showing a definitive layout is not available, a concept plan has been produced. On the concept plan, a potential location for a primary school is shown approximately 500m from the Site, whilst the local centre is shown approximately 2.0km from the Site.

Bus Accessibility

The Site benefits from being in the vicinity of existing bus services:

 There are 3 bus stops near the Site. The closest bus stop is located on the western side of Barton Road approximately 500m walking distance from the centre of the Site. The other two bus stops are located on Quantock Rise.  The Land North of Luton site is likely to be served by bus services. The concept plan shows a potential bus route through the allocated site and a bus stop close to Barton Road. The Framework Plan highlights the opportunities for linking the allocated site to bus routes and encouraging a link to the Luton Guided Busway. There would be opportunities for residents of the Site to utilise these connections.

Rail Accessibility

Regular rail services are available from local stations:

 Leagrave station, which is located 3.8km south west of the Site, is the closest rail station to the Site. Leagrave station can be reached by using the 24H bus service on Quantock Rise.  Luton Railway Station is 5.7km from the site. The 24H, 25, 79 and 81 bus routes all serve Luton Station.

Vehicular Accessibility

 WYG previously explored access options for the Barton Road Site. It was decided that the most appropriate means of access was via a standard roundabout on Barton Road

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and that a priority junction would not have the capacity to support access to the development. It is still considered that a roundabout would be the best option for access to the development.  Speeds on Barton Road are likely to be high as it is a straight road and the speed limit is derestricted. In terms of highway safety, it would be preferable if the speed limit on Barton Road was changed to 40mph to the north of the proposed site access.

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1 INTRODUCTION

1.1 Vectos has been appointed by The Crown Estate to provide transport advice on a potential new residential development in Central on land east of Barton Road (A6), referred to in this technical note as the “Site”.

1.2 The Site is being promoted for residential development through the emerging Central Bedfordshire Local Plan. The previous iteration of the Plan, which was withdrawn prior to adoption, proposed a large scale residential development to the north of Luton, including the land to the west of Barton Road (referred to as the Land North of Luton and Sundon Rail Freight Interchange and also as the North Luton Strategic Allocation - NLSA), opposite the site. This “allocation” for c.4,000 new homes would have included a wide array of community services and facilities.

1.3 The purpose of this technical note is to provide an appraisal of potential access and sustainable transport facilities for the Site. A site location plan is included at Figure 1.

1.4 The report will include the following sections:

 Section 2: Baseline Context – A review of transport conditions at the Site and surrounding area, existing pedestrian and cycle routes, public transport provision and the highway network.  Section 3: Access Strategy – A review of potential access options at the site.  Section 4: Summary & Conclusions – A review of the key points described in this report

1.5 A previous study by WYG has been included at Appendix A for reference.

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2 BASELINE CONTEXT

Site Location

2.1 The Site is located on the northern edge of Luton, approximately 5.2km from Luton Town Centre. A site location plan is included at Figure 1. The Site is also approximately 3.8 km north-east of Leagrave Rail Station and 5.5km from Luton Rail Station.

2.2 The western border of the Site, extends along Barton Road (A6) from Great Bramingham Lane northwards to the access to New Farm, Streatley (a distance of approximately 630 metres).

2.3 The A6 is a single carriageway road and is a key radial route into Luton from Bedford.

2.4 The southern perimeter of the site is formed by the built up area comprising primarily of residential housing in Turnpike Drive. The north and east borders are made up largely of open space and farm land.

Land North of Luton and Sundon RFI (Rail Freight Interchange)

2.5 A Framework Plan for the Land North of Luton and Sundon RFI was adopted in March 2015 and set out a vision and strategy for a sustainable new development in an area stretching from the M1 to the A6 Barton Road.

2.6 It was envisaged that the Land North of Luton would provide a mix of market and affordable housing, commercial development, new schools, accessible open space, and sports and leisure facilities. Land adjacent to Sundon Quarry, known as Sundon Rail Freight Interchange (RFI), will deliver a new sub-regional RFI adjacent to the and complimentary commercial development. Both strategic allocations were intended to support the delivery of a major new east-west route from the new Junction 11A of the M1 to the A6.

2.7 Whilst the exact route of this link had not been finalised, the Framework Plan set out a preferred alignment. The eastern end of the link is shown to tie in with the A6 Barton Road via a new roundabout.

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2.8 To our knowledge a planning application has yet to be submitted for these sites, however, a significant level of funding has been secured through local growth fund mechanisms for the M1 – A6 link.

Walking and Cycling

2.9 There is a footway/cycleway on the western side of Barton Road in the vicinity of the Site. There is also a footway/cycleway on the eastern side of Barton Road, which commences at the southwest corner of the Site then runs south along Barton Road (the cycle route leads to the town centre). Street lighting is provided on both sides of Barton Road. A 2km walking isochrone is shown in Figure 2.

2.10 The footway/cycleway on Barton Road offers a traffic-free route. This is part of the National Cycle Network and connects to the National Cycle Route 6 located 2.6 km south of the Site, linking Luton with destinations such as Market Harborough, Northampton and Milton Keynes. A 5km cycle isochrone is shown in Figure 3.

2.11 South of the Site, running east-west, there is an unpaved signed cycle path which offers connection to the National Cycle Network. Figure 3 shows the major cycle routes in the 5km catchment area.

2.12 The Land North of Luton site, when built, will provide significant opportunities for residents of the Site to access local amenities such as primary schools and a local centre. This would be encourage through the provision of safe crossing opportunities on Barton Road between the two sites.

Local Facilities

2.13 A number of key facilities are available within a distance of 2km from the site such as retail, community and public facilities as well as leisure destinations. A summary of the key existing facilities and their relative distances from the site, are listed below in Table 1. Measurements have been taken from the centre of the site. These local facilities are shown on Figure 2.

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Table 1: Local facilities Facility Type Facility Name Approx. Distance from Site Leisure Bramingham Park 1.0km Retail Homebase 1.0km College 1.1km Chemist Warden Hill Chemist - Alphega Pharmacy 1.1km Leisure Beefeater Warden 1.3km School Cardinal Newman Catholic School 1.4km Medical Centre Bramingham Medical Centre 1.5km Retail Sainsbury’s, Bramingham Park 1.6km School Bramingham Primary School 1.7km

2.14 Table 1 shows the walk distances from the site to local facilities. A key aim will be to enhance pedestrian connectivity to the site as much as possible. This could be done by providing a footway along the eastern side of Barton Road, or providing a good pedestrian crossing facility from the site access to the existing footway along the western side of Barton Road. Another alternative would be providing pedestrian links from the southern end of the potential residential site to Turnpike Drive, bordering the south of the site. Ensuring good cycle and public transport will also need to be prioritised.

2.15 It is noted that the Land north of Luton site would include a number of amenities. Whilst a planning application showing a definitive layout is note available, a concept plan has been produced. On the concept plan, a potential location for a primary school is shown approximately 500m from the Site, whilst the local centre is shown approximately 2.0km from the Site.

Public Transport

Bus

2.16 Bus stop locations and bus services in the vicinity of the site are presented in Figure 4. There are 3 bus stops near the site. However, the closest bus stop is located on the western side of Barton Road approximately 500m walking distance from the centre of the Site (and 750m from the furthest residential units). The other two bus stops are located 680-700m from the centre of the Site, on Quantock Rise.

2.17 Further information on local bus services and frequencies is provided in Table 2.

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Table 2: Local Bus Services

Service Average Frequency (mins) Route No. Mon-Fri Saturday Sunday Every 20 and Every 20 and 25 – Luton Town Centre - 40 mins 40mins Luton - Marsh Farm - Farm - 24H Every 60 mins Every 60mins - Dunstable Every 120 81 Bedford - Luton Every 60 mins Every 60 mins mins Luton - Barton - Shefford - Every 120 Every 120 79 - Meppershall mins mins

2.18 It is likely that the highway authority will request that closer bus stops be provided (along the site frontage on Barton Road), as the existing bus stops are more than 400m from the site (which is the recommended maximum distance generally applied by highway authorities).

2.19 The sustainability of the site will clearly be enhanced by providing more frequent bus services and/or closer bus stops. A potential solution would be to explore whether services 24H and 25 could be diverted further north along Barton Road (a distance of approximately 250 metres) to serve the Site. These services could potentially turn around at the proposed site access, which would involve a total additional distance of 500m for these buses.

2.20 It should be noted that the Land North of Luton site is likely to be served by bus services. The concept plan shows a potential bus route through the allocated site and a bus stop close to Barton Road. The Framework Plan highlights the opportunities for linking the allocated site to bus routes and encouraging a link to the Luton Dunstable Guided Busway. There would be opportunities for residents of the Site to utilise these connections.

2.21 Further discussions with bus operators will be required to understand the options available.

Rail

2.22 Leagrave station, which is located 3.8km south west of the Site, is the closest rail station to the Site. Although this is outside of comfortable walking distance, Leagrave station can be reached by using the 24H bus service on Quantock Rise. Leagrave station is managed by . Destinations and relative rail frequencies are summarised in Table 3 below.

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Table 3: Typical Rail Frequencies from Leagrave Station (minutes) Average Frequency (mins) Destination Route Mon-Fri Saturday Sunday Bedford–Luton–London St Pancras– 30 30 15 Gatwick- Brighton Bedford-Luton-London St Pancras- Three Bridges 30 30 15 Gatwick-Three Bridges Three Bridges-Gatwick-London St Bedford 15 15 15 Pancras-Luton-Bedford Bedford – Luton – London St Seven Oaks 60 30 30 Pancras-Bromley South-Seven Oaks Beckenham Bedford-Luton-London St Pancras- 30 30 15 Junction Beckenham Junction

2.23 Luton Railway Station is 5.7km from the site. Although this is outside of comfortable walking distance, the 24H, 25, 79 and 81 bus routes all serve Luton Station. The station is managed by Thameslink. Information on the typical rail frequencies from Luton Station is given in Table 4.

Table 4: Typical Rail Frequencies from Luton Station (minutes)

Average Frequency (mins) Destination Route Mon-Fri Saturday Sunday Sutton (Surrey)-Wimbledon-St Bedford 10 12 12 Pancras--Bedford Bedford-Luton-St Pancras-Gatwick Brighton 30 30 30 Airport-Brighton Bedford-Luton-St Albans-St Pancras- Three Bridges 30 30 30 East Croydon-Three Bridges Luton-St Albans-St Pancras- Sutton (Surrey) 30 30 30 Wimbledon-Sutton (Surrey) Luton-St Albans-St Pancras-Bromley Sevenoaks 60 - - South-Sevenoaks Corby St Pancras-Luton-Bedford-Corby 60 60 60 Derby-Leicester-Bedford-Luton-St London St Pancras 60 60 60 Pancras

2.24 One barrier to sustainable travel by train (via bus) that remains is that residents would still have to walk from the Site to relatively remote bus stops. Closer bus stops would make travel to the station via bus more attractive.

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3 ACCESS STRATEGY

3.1 WYG previously explored access options for the Site (refer to Appendix A). It was decided that the most appropriate means of access was via a standard roundabout on Barton Road and that a priority junction would not have the capacity to support access to the development. It is still considered that a roundabout would be the best option for access to the development. It also allows buses to U-turn if they are designed to serve closer bus stops at the site.

3.2 Speeds on Barton Road are likely to be high as it is a straight road and the speed limit is derestricted. In terms of highway safety, it would be preferable if the speed limit on Barton Road was changed to 40mph to the north of the proposed site access.

3.3 The southern section of Barton Road already has a 40mph speed limit and therefore the extension of the 40mph speed limit should be welcomed, particularly as it would be adjacent to the future built up area.

3.4 Furthermore, the implementation of the Land North of Luton site is likely to involve a change in character of Barton Road in the vicinity of the Site, which would also encourage the highway authority to reduce the speed limit along this section of Barton Road.

Planned Infrastructure

3.5 The Luton Northern Bypass is a scheme being promoted by a consortium of and Bedfordshire County Council. Figure 4 shows the possible route options for the Luton Northern Bypass. These include four route options from the M1 to the A6 and then three route options from the A6 to the A505.

3.6 Furthermore, the concept plan associated with the Land North of Luton’s Framework Plan shows a potential route for the M1 to A6 route (this appears to follow the orange line in Figure 4).

3.7 The Central Bedfordshire Local Transport Plan 3 states that the link to the east of the A6 are long term aspirations and it will not be built until at least 2026.

3.8 A bypass, if required, could potentially perform three main functions:

 be a key part of a route around the urban area

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 form a new link between the M1, A6 and, potentially, A505  be the main access to major new housing and employment sites located to the north of the M1 to A6 section of the new route

3.9 Some of the key objectives of the bypass are to:

 remove excessive traffic from the conurbation, and in particular from Luton town centre  take into account the need for development land in line with the Milton Keynes/South Midlands sub-regional strategy and advise on the implications for the development land  potentially provide good/improved access to and from development areas  limit environmental impact  design the route to ensure minimum traffic impact on the local road network  encourage modal shift through linkage to park and ride facilities and bus priority measures to improve public transport reliability and journey times in the urban area  improve access to and between public transport interchanges  address road safety problems by reducing congestion in urban areas and removing unnecessary traffic from rural roads  improve conditions for pedestrians, cyclists and horse riders by providing safe routes including crossings at junctions

3.10 Referring to the plan shown in Figure 5, the route represented by the black line appear to be the best option (from the A6 to the A505) for the Barton Road development, in terms of maximising development land, as the other suggested routes cross the Barton Road site. However, it is recognised that there are significant environmental challenges as these potential routes affect SSSI areas and the Chilterns AONB. As such this may require expensive solutions such as tunnelling and the black line route may not be the preferred route in terms of environmental impact / cost.

3.11 The other two options from the A6 to the A505 involve a new junction (presumably a four- arm roundabout junction) along the Barton Road frontage of the development site. These are consistent with the junction location for the M1-A6 link shown in the Land North of Luton’s concept plan.

3.12 The concept plan currently shows a potential junction for the bypass to the north of the potential site access roundabout drawn in a previous study by WYG. Once the bypass has

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joined Barton Road, it would then cross the site before following the edge of the built development area and to the west of South Beds Golf Course.

3.13 The nature of the bypass is unknown at this stage but is likely to be a primary road with relatively few accesses, therefore no access is proposed into the Site. Regardless of the route of the bypass, the Site will not rely on access from it.

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4 SUMMARY & CONCLUSIONS

Overall Conclusions

4.1 WYG previously explored access options for the Barton Road site. It was decided that the most appropriate means of access was via a standard roundabout on Barton Road and that a priority junction would not have the capacity to support access to the development. It is still considered that a roundabout would be the best option for access to the development.

4.2 The nature of the bypass is unknown at this stage but is likely to be a primary road with relatively few accesses, therefore no access is proposed into the Site. Regardless of the route of the bypass, the Site will not rely on access from it.

Overall Sustainability

4.3 The Site is not currently within comfortable walking distance of a wide range of local amenities. This could encourage potential residents to predominantly drive and travel in a less sustainable manner. However, development of the Land North of Luton site would introduce a range of facilities that could be within walking distance from the Site.

4.4 The sustainable transport links to the site should be emphasised and enhanced in any developmental proposal. This will include:

 Improved pedestrian and cycle links;  Closer and/or higher frequency bus routes serving the Site; and  A robust Travel Plan with incentives for residents to travel sustainably.

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FIGURES

Key

Site Location

Barton Road

The Crown Estate

Barton Road, Luton

Site Location

SCALES: NTS DRAWN: CHECKED: DATE: REVISION: Y.A P.W 16/02/2017 .

Network Building, 97 Tottenham Court Road, London W1T 4TP Tel: 020 7580 7373 Email: [email protected] www.vectos.co.uk

DRAWING REFERENCE: Figure 1 Key

Site Location

Bridleways

ROW Footpaths

Education (School)

Pharmacy/Medical Centre

Retail

Leisure

The Crown Estate

Barton Road, Luton

2km Walking Isochrone and Local Facilities

SCALES: NTS DRAWN: CHECKED: DATE: REVISION: Y.A P.W 16/02/2017 .

Network Building, 97 Tottenham Court Road, London W1T 4TP Tel: 020 7580 7373 Email: [email protected] www.vectos.co.uk

DRAWING REFERENCE: Figure 2 Key

Site Location

Cycle Route

National Cycle Route 6

Bridleway

The Crown Estate

Barton Road, Luton

5km Cycling Isochrone,

SCALES: NTS DRAWN: CHECKED: DATE: REVISION: Y.A P.W .

Network Building, 97 Tottenham Court Road, London W1T 4TP Tel: 020 7580 7373 Email: [email protected] www.vectos.co.uk

DRAWING REFERENCE: Figure 3 Luton Northern Bypass route options as presented in the North Dunstable and North Luton Consultation leaflet 2009

Key: Barton Road, Luton Crown Estate Site Location Bypass Option 2 Luton Northern Bypass – Route Options

Network Building, 97 Tottenham Court Road, London W1T 4TP Bypass Option 2 Bypass Option 3 Tel: 020 7580 7373 Email: [email protected] www.vectos.co.uk DRAWN: CHECKED: DATE: SCALES: DRAWING REFERENCE: Y.A P.W 16/02/2017 Figure 5

APPENDIX A

WYG Transport part of the WYG group

The Crown Estate

Barton Road, Luton

Transport Feasibility Study

November 2014

100 St John Street, London, EC1M 4EH

Tel: +44 (0)20 7580 8844

Email: [email protected]

www.wyg.com creative minds safe hands

Barton Road, Luton Transport Feasibility Study

Contents

1 INTRODUCTION ...... 2 2 OFF-SITE HIGHWAY NETWORK REVIEW ...... 3 Site Location ...... 3 Network Surveys ...... 3 Year of Assessment ...... 4 Traffic Growth ...... 4 Development Trips ...... 5 Trip Assignment – Residential Development ...... 5 Junction Capacity Review and Suggested Mitigation ...... 6 3 ASSESSMENT OF SITE ACCESS ...... 14 4 CONCLUSIONS ...... 15

Tables

Table 1: TEMPRO Local Traffic Growth Factors ...... 5 Table 2: Residential Vehicle Trip Rates and Traffic Generation (500 units) ...... 5 Table 3: Existing Junction Performance - A6 Luton Road/Church Road/Barton Hill Road ...... 7 Table 4: Future with Development Junction Performance - A6 Luton Road/Church Road/Barton Hill Road .. 7 Table 5: Existing Junction Performance - A6 Barton Rd/Quantock Rise/Turnpike Dr ...... 8 Table 6: 2020 Baseline Junction Performance - A6 Barton Rd/Quantock Rise/Turnpike Dr (current layout) . 8 Table 7: Future with Development Junction Performance - A6 Barton Rd/Quantock Rise/Turnpike Dr ...... 9 Table 8: Future with Development Junction Performance - A6 Barton Rd/Enterprise Way/ Way/Warden Hill Road ...... 11 Table 3: Potential Costs of Off-site Highways Works ...... 12

Figures

Figure 1: Junction Survey Plan ...... 4

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Barton Road, Luton Transport Feasibility Study

1 Introduction

1.1 WYG is instructed by The Crown Estate to provide Transport Advice in respect of the potential development of up to 500 residential units on land adjacent to Barton Road (A6) to the north of Luton.

1.2 As part of this work, WYG has undertaken a Transport Feasibility Study, which includes the following key elements:

 an off-site highway network review; and  an assessment of site access requirements.

1.3 The tasks detailed above are intended to inform the feasibility and emerging masterplan work currently being undertaken in advance of a potential site allocations submission to Central Bedfordshire Council.

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2 Off-site Highway Network Review

2.1 WYG has undertaken a review of the existing operation of the surrounding local highway network and evaluated the possible impacts of the potential residential development in the context of existing conditions and has taken into account committed developments in the vicinity of the site. This work has focused particularly on the following elements:

 a highway network review in order to assess key network junctions;  an outline trip generation assessment and assignment of development trips associated with the development of up to 500 dwellings; and  consideration of potential highway mitigation measures.

Site Location

2.2 The proposal site is located east of the A6 Barton Road, to the north of Luton. Access to / from the site is currently via a farm access road from the A6 Barton Road. The A6 acts as the main highway link from Luton towards Bedford, which is approximately 15 miles to the north

Network Surveys

2.3 A review of the highway network has identified that the following junctions should be considered as part of a network capacity review:

 Church Road / A6 / Barton Hill;  Turnpike Drive / A6 / Quantock Rise;  Enterprise Way / A6 / Icknfield Way; and  Warden Hill Road / A6.

2.4 Traffic surveys of the above junctions were undertaken on the 3rd July 2014. The results of these surveys identified that the AM and PM peak hours were 07:30 – 08:30 and 16:45 – 17:45 respectively. Figure 1 shows the locations of the junctions surveyed.

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Figure 1: Junction Survey Plan

Site

Year of Assessment

2.5 WYG has undertaken a forecast assessment review for the year 2020. This is based on the theoretical submission of a planning application in 2015 and forecast year of assessment of 5 years from the date of a planning application. This future assessment year is in-line with the guidance contained in the Department for Transport Guidance on Transport Assessments (GTA), March 2007.

Traffic Growth

2.6 TEMPRO has been utilised to provide traffic growth factors to be applied to the peak hour surveys with growth rates extracted for Luton. The growth factors derived from TEMPRO are presented in Table 1.

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Table 1: TEMPRO Local Traffic Growth Factors Trip Rates AM Peak PM Peak 2014 - 2020 1.085 1.083

2.7 TEMPRO growth rates have been applied to the 2014 survey flows in order to determine 2020 forecast flows.

Development Trips

2.8 Development trips have been calculated utilising the TRICS database. Trip rates have been determined utilising the category ‘House Privately Owned’ with site selection based on ‘Edge of Town’ sites located in regions outside of Greater London, Ireland and Scotland. Vehicle trip rates and traffic generation associated with a potential 500-unit development is presented in Table 2.

Table 2: Residential Vehicle Trip Rates and Traffic Generation (500 units) Trip Rates Trips Arrivals Departures Arrivals Departures AM Peak 0.154 0.441 77 221 PM Peak 0.384 0.229 192 115

Trip Assignment – Residential Development

2.9 The assignment of residential trips is based on a review of 2011 Census Data. Our review has focused on the destination of journey to work trips from the Northwell and Bramingham Super Output Areas, as defined in the Census, to other Super Output Areas in Luton, Central Bedfordshire and North Hertfordshire. Although the site is situated outside of these wards, Northwell and Bramingham are the nearest established residential areas to the site, and were therefore used to best reflect the future residential characteristics of the site.

2.10 The three areas selected are considered appropriate to enable review of the likely distribution of residential trips along the A6 when exiting the site. The results of the census review identified that of those residents who live in the Northwell and Bramingham wards, 100% travelled to work within Luton, Hemel Hempstead, St Albans, and other areas south of the site.

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2.11 Residential trips have been assigned at all junctions south of the Church Road / A6 / Barton Hill Roundabout in line with the distribution of traffic identified within the peak junction surveys.

2.12 This traffic distribution should be considered to represent a ‘worst-case’ scenario given the likelihood of some proportion of traffic generation by the development travelling to and from site on the A6 via Bedford and other destination to the north of the site. Further detailed refinement of the traffic distribution should therefore reduce the potential impact of the development on the critical junctions on the A6 which are assessed within this report.

Junction Capacity Review and Suggested Mitigation

2.13 The following section provides a summary of the findings from our capacity review along with possible highway alterations that would be necessary and indicative costs to undertake the identified alterations.

2.14 This modelling assessment has been completed for the three external road network junctions previously identified, together with the development of a potential site access strategy.

2.15 All costs are based on initial review with no allowance for any works that would be required to divert utilities at the junctions, or potential third party land issues. Furthermore, no allowance has been made for commuted sums associated with the maintenance of traffic signal junctions. The figures should therefore be considered to be outline estimates at this stage.

2.16 The operation of each existing junction has been modelled using industry standard ARCADY roundabout modelling software. The roundabouts capacity has been calibrated to represent existing operations; this has been completed by through observation of the videos recorded as part of the traffic survey. Calibration allows a representative model of the junction to be built; this gives confidence to the output of any future capacity assessments.

A6 Luton Road/Church Road/Barton Hill Road

2.17 Results for the existing junction operations are shown in Table 3 below.

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Table 3: Existing Junction Performance - A6 Luton Road/Church Road/Barton Hill Road

AM Peak PM Peak Arm Queue Queue RFC RFC (vehicles) (vehicles) Barton Hill Rd 0.182 1 0.340 1

Luton Rd (s) 0.468 1 0.515 1

Church Rd 0.477 1 0.611 2

Luton Rd (n) 0.899 6 0.812 3 Notes: RFC – Ratio of Flow to Capacity Results above are for the worst case individual lane at each approach for the peak 15-minute period in each hour. 2.18 Table 3 indicates that one lane of the junction (the nearside lane at the north arm) junction is at practical capacity for 15 to 30 minutes in the morning peak, with some spare capacity in the afternoon. This is due to underutilisation of the offside lane on approach to the roundabout, indicating that, in general, drivers have little issue with a small level of delay at this junction. When flows increase, and delay consequently increases, more traffic is likely to use the offside lane to get through the junction rather than wait in a queue. Therefore capacity theoretically exists at this junction.

2.19 In assessing the addition of background traffic growth and traffic generated by the subject site, the above behaviour regarding lane usage has been retained. This results in a worst case for the future scenario; the actual outcome will likely be much more favourable. Results of the with development assessment scenario at the 2020 design year are provide in Table 4 below.

Table 4: Future with Development Junction Performance - A6 Luton Road/Church Road/Barton Hill Road

AM Peak PM Peak Arm Queue Queue RFC RFC (vehicles) (vehicles) Barton Hill Rd 0.251 1 0.431 1

Luton Rd (s) 0.533 1 0.571 1

Church Rd 0.540 2 0.722 3

Luton Rd (n) 0.953 13 0.862 5 Notes: RFC – Ratio of Flow to Capacity Results above are for the worst case individual lane at each approach for the peak 15-minute period in each hour. 2.20 Table 4 indicates that while the junction exceeds its practical capacity, it does remain within 100 percent of the capacity available. It is again noted that this is for a period of 15 to 30 minutes in the nearside lane of the north approach arm only.

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A6 Barton Rd/Quantock Rise/Turnpike Dr

2.21 This junction experiences an almost continuous stream of north to south traffic in the AM peak, this is reversed in the PM, although not to the same intensity. The junction is effectively at practical capacity at present, and is able to accommodate the current demand because the traffic flows that conflict with the major north-south movements are currently quite light.

2.22 Confirmation of existing operations is shown in the results summary in Table 5 below.

Table 5: Existing Junction Performance - A6 Barton Rd/Quantock Rise/Turnpike Dr

AM Peak PM Peak Arm Queue Queue RFC RFC (vehicles) (vehicles) Turnpike Dr 0.434 1 0.150 0

Barton Rd (s) 0.868 6 0.841 5

Quantock Rise 0.640 2 0.622 3

Barton Rd (s) 0.879 6 0.907 8 Notes: RFC – Ratio of Flow to Capacity Results above are for the worst case individual lane at each approach for the peak 15-minute period in each hour. 2.23 Table 5 confirms that both the north and south junction approaches are close to or at practical capacity of 0.85 to 0.90 RFC. This occurs over a duration of 15 to 30 minutes, and combined with the observations made at the junction, indicates that a further increase in traffic is likely to result in the junction exceeding capacity and is likely to require improvement.

2.24 To determine the level of improvement required it is necessary to compare the current junction arrangement and its ability to accommodate the future baseline (2020) traffic flows with the level of improvement required to enable development of the subject site. The results of the baseline assessment are provided in Table 6 below.

Table 6: 2020 Baseline Junction Performance - A6 Barton Rd/Quantock Rise/Turnpike Dr (current layout)

AM Peak PM Peak Arm Queue Queue RFC RFC (vehicles) (vehicles) Turnpike Dr 0.576 2 0.183 0

Barton Rd (s) 0.942 13 0.922 10

Quantock Rise 0.702 3 0.727 6

Barton Rd (s) 0.951 14 0.983 24 Notes: RFC – Ratio of Flow to Capacity Results above are for the worst case individual lane at each approach for the peak 15-minute period in each hour. 8

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2.25 Table 6 indicates that the junction would exceed practical capacity, and would be close to maximum theoretical maximum capacity, in the future baseline traffic scenario. The

2.26 In assessing the addition of background traffic growth and traffic generated by the subject site, the above behaviour regarding lane usage has been retained. This results in a worst case for the future scenario; the actual outcome will likely be much more favourable. Results of the with development assessment scenario at the 2020 design year are provide in Table 7 below.

2.27 In order to accommodate development traffic and background traffic growth to the design year, 2020, the following road improvements are required:  Widening required at all four arms;  Two through lanes required heading both direction north-south; and  Potentially increase the size of the roundabout island itself.

2.28 The results for the proposed improved junction incorporating 2020 with development traffic flows are presented in Table 7 below.

Table 7: Future with Development Junction Performance - A6 Barton Rd/Quantock Rise/Turnpike Dr

AM Peak PM Peak Arm Queue Queue RFC RFC (vehicles) (vehicles) Turnpike Dr 0.630 4 0.152 1

Barton Rd (s) 0.481 1 0.522 1

Quantock Rise 0.752 4 0.777 5

Barton Rd (s) 0.912 10 0.910 8 Notes: RFC – Ratio of Flow to Capacity Results above are for the worst case individual lane at each approach for the peak 15-minute period in each hour. 2.29 Table 7 demonstrates that in comparison to the base situation in Table 6, the improved roundabout would offer a benefit for the majority of traffic using it.

2.30 The above suggested improvements will result in a significant redesign of the existing and as such, it may not be possible to fully satisfy all design standards. If this proves the case, another form of junction layout may require consideration, such as a signal controlled crossroads.

2.31 The improvements at the junction to increase the capacity of the existing roundabout are estimated at approximately £750,000 as either an improved roundabout or new signal controlled crossroads would require major modifications.

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A6 Barton Rd/Enterprise Way/Icknield Way/Warden Hill Road

2.32 Similar to the above junction at A6 Barton Rd/Quantock Rise/Turnpike Dr, the north to south flows along the A6 are persistently strong, particularly in the AM peak. The PM peak flows are more evenly balanced in each direction on the A6 approaches.

2.33 In the AM peak the northern arm has a continual stream of traffic contained largely in one lane, travelling north-south along the A6 toward Luton city centre. Observations show that the level of traffic conflicting with this flow is low and irregularly spaced, meaning there are long periods when the traffic from the north arm can enter the roundabout in virtual free-flow.

2.34 Although the roundabout performs reasonably well, it is effectively at capacity; vehicles are quite tightly packed in the traffic stream and any breakdown in the flow progression causes queues to form very quickly. Problems arise when the roundabout carriageway becomes blocked. This is caused by the pelican crossing opposite Warden Hill Road; this stops the traffic progressing southbound along the A6. The tightly packed traffic stream coming to a stop causes an almost instant queue to form, blocking back through the roundabout, cascading north along the A6.

2.35 The existing junction is therefore considered to be effectively at capacity. The interaction with the nearby pelican crossing makes it difficult to model in standard roundabout assessment software; however, it is evident there will be a future capacity problem as traffic flows increase towards 2020, ultimately requiring design interventions.

2.36 One solution would be to remove the pedestrian crossing; however, this is considered undesirable given the proximity to the school. It also does not provide for the increased traffic flow along the A6 as a result of background traffic growth and the traffic generated by the proposed development.

2.37 The increase in traffic would require a widened entry to the roundabout from the north arm, allowing two lanes of traffic to travel through the roundabout along the A6. This would also be required at the south arm of the A6, travelling north through the junction.

2.38 In both directions, any two-lane exit from the roundabout would have to extend a significant distance from the junction in order that queues from traffic merging back to one lane cannot block through the junction.

2.39 The additional complication of the pedestrian crossing means that a coordinated signal system would be required to ensure that the pedestrian crossing does not disrupt the traffic flow in the north-south direction, this requires the roundabout to be signalised such that the pedestrian crossing can only be called when the north arm of the roundabout sees a red signal.

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2.40 These improvements will require road widening from two to three lanes at the south arm of the A6 (one northbound lane and two southbound lanes). A similar, but reduced level of widening is required at the north arm of the A6. Each approach to the proposed signalised roundabout will need to be widened to permit efficient use of the signalised roundabout.

2.41 There is also the issue of the bus stops to address. To maintain stops close to their current location, and to reduce disruption caused by stopped bus on the proposed signals, additional land may be required (one dwelling at the corner of Icknield Road and A6 Barton Road).

2.42 A preliminary layout for the above outlined junction improvement is provided in Appendix A. The potential cost of these works is in the order of £1,750,000.

2.43 The junction has been modelled using industry standard traffic signal software LinSig. The results for the proposed improved junction incorporating 2020 with development traffic flows are presented in Table 8 below.

Table 8: Future with Development Junction Performance - A6 Barton Rd/Enterprise Way/Icknield Way/Warden Hill Road

AM Peak PM Peak Arm Queue Queue DoS DoS (vehicles) (vehicles) Barton Rd (s) 91.8 10 87.7 8

Icknield Way 92.6 9 87.6 7

Enterprise Way 4.2 0 23.1 1

Barton (n) 92.6 14 89.7 11 Notes: DoS – Degree of Saturation 2.44 Table 8 demonstrates that the proposed junction would operate within capacity for in the future year with development situation. It is noted that this junction provides a significant capacity benefit for all traffic and is controllable in terms of its interaction with the nearby pelican crossing. For these reasons, it is recommended that the costs of this improvement are shared with the local highway authority.

Summary of External Highways Works and Costs

2.45 A summary of the potential costs associated with the off-site highways works is presented in Table 9.

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Table 9: Potential Costs of Off-site Highways Works Junction Potential Cost of Works A6 Barton Rd/Quantock Rise/Turnpike Dr £750,000 A6 Barton Rd/Enterprise Way/Icknield Way/Warden Hill Road £1,750,000 TOTAL £2,500,000

2.46 As shown in Table 9 above, the possible budget for off-site highway works has been estimated to be in the region of £2,500,000. It should be noted that the model assessment upon which this estimate is based, has been undertaken using a single days traffic survey information and considers the development site in isolation. Although growth factors have been applied, it does not consider any committed developments.

2.47 The junction designs and budget estimates should be treated with caution and considered only as outline estimates at this stage. Significant further work would be required to establish the deliverability of the works and existing land constraints. More detailed cost estimates would be required which would include details of the land ownership and highway boundary, and the knowledge of any statutory undertakers or traffic management which could affect the suggested works. As such the figures should be considered to represent outline estimates at this stage and are likely to be refined as further studies are progressed.

2.48 Further discussion with be required with the local authority to understand the counicl’s position with regard to the A6 corridor and the junctions in question given the existing capacity problems which occur. It would not be considered reasonable for the developer to be responsible to fix an existing capacity problem, therefore discussions would be required to establish the proportionality of any impact of a 500 unit development given the cost and level of works required to improve the operation of the existing network

2.49 It is important to note that the effects of the Luton northern bypass have not been taken into account in this assessment as the bypass proposals are currently in the options development stage. It is therefore assumed that this infrastructure would not be in place at the time of significant development of the subject site, thereby meaning the development of the site is not tied to the need for a bypass.

2.50 However, the potential improvements and associated costs would need to be considered in the context of the bypass being delivered. Given the redistribution of traffic which would result from the bypass being delivered and the associated potential relief on the A6 corridor, the local authority may not wish to see significant monies directed toward improvements to junctions which may not

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required in a post-bypass scenario. Further discussion is therefore required on this point to establish the position with regard to the bypass and its potential delivery.

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3 Assessment of Site Access

3.1 The site is initially proposed to be accessed at two locations along the A6:  a roundabout access in the vicinity of the existing farm access; and  a T-junction between the proposed north access and the southern site boundary.

3.2 The capacity assessment has demonstrated that the future traffic volumes on the A6 would approach the physical capacity of a two-lane single carriageway. Vehicles would be too tightly spaced that no side road capacity would exist. Therefore a T-junction access is not an appropriate form of access in this location.

3.3 A typical three-arm roundabout has been assessed for all development traffic entering and leaving the site at one junction. This arrangement is shown to work; however it requires widening the north and south approaches of the A6 to achieve two lanes through the roundabout in either direction, similar to the southbound carriageway at the Luton Road/Church Road roundabout to the north of the site.

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4 Conclusions

4.1 WYG is instructed by The Crown Estate to provide Transport Advice in respect of the potential development of up to 500 residential units on land to the north of Luton, adjacent to the A6 Barton Road.

4.2 A review of the operation of the existing highway network has been undertaken, with the key junctions on the A6 corridor being modelling in the future base scenario, accounting for forecast traffic growth. This baseline assessment showed capacity issues at a number of junctions.

4.3 Following this, a further modelling assessment was undertaken to identify improvements to accommodate traffic generated by a 500-unit scheme on the subject site. A series of potential mitigation measures have been investigated, which should enable the junctions to operate at a level at, or close to their theoretical capacity. These series of measures have been estimated to cost in the region on £2,500,000 in total, without detailed knowledge of potential diversion/protection of statutory services.

4.4 Given the existing capacity issues on the critical junctions assessed, discussions with the local highway authority would be required as to the level of contribution could be considered reasonable for a 500 unit development in the context of the overall cost of improvements to the A6 corridor.

4.5 WYG are aware of the proposals for the Luton northern bypass; however, as no final option has been published, this assessment has assumed it will not be in place at the time of significant development at the subject site. This ensures that any highways scheme associated with the site does not rely on the Luton northern bypass. It is suggested further discussion with the local authority is undertaken in respect of the bypass and its programme given the potential impact this could have on the A6 corridor and the requirement for the proposed measures outlined in this report.

4.6 A site access assessment has also been conducted; this has demonstrated the development site can be accessed from the A6 via a three-arm roundabout. This assessment has also shown that a T-junction would not have sufficient capacity in this location.

4.7 Overall, the assessment has demonstrated that there is a potential highways improvement scheme, that would not only provide capacity for the development itself, but would also improve the future traffic situation along the A6 corridor in this area. The level and proportion of potential developer contributions towards to the costs of the proposed highway improvements in this report would be a matter for future negotiation with the local highway authority.

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