Beware Modern Monetary Theory: an Opinion on Risks
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Price Stability and Monetary Policy Effectiveness When Nominal Interest Rates Are Bounded at Zero
No. 2003/13 Price Stability and Monetary Policy Effectiveness when Nominal Interest Rates are Bounded at Zero Günter Coenen, Athanasios Orphanides, Volker Wieland Center for Financial Studies an der Johann Wolfgang Goethe-Universität § Taunusanlage 6 § D-60329 Frankfurt am Main Tel: (+49)069/242941-0 § Fax: (+49)069/242941-77 § E-Mail: [email protected] § Internet: http://www.ifk-cfs.de CFS Working Paper No. 2003/13 Price Stability and Monetary Policy Effectiveness when Nominal Interest Rates are Bounded at Zero*† Günter Coenen, Athanasios Orphanides, Volker Wieland Revised Version: March 2003 Abstract: This paper employs stochastic simulations of a small structural rational expectations model to investigate the consequences of the zero bound on nominal interest rates. We find that if the economy is subject to stochastic shocks similar in magnitude to those experienced in the U.S. over the 1980s and 1990s, the consequences of the zero bound are negligible for target inflation rates as low as 2 percent. However, the effects of the constraint are non-linear with respect to the inflation target and produce a quantitatively significant deterioration of the performance of the economy with targets between 0 and 1 percent. The variability of output increases significantly and that of inflation also rises somewhat. Also, we show that the asymmetry of the policy ineffectiveness induced by the zero bound generates a non-vertical long-run Phillips curve. Output falls increasingly short of potential with lower inflation targets. JEL Classification: E31, E52, E58, E61 Keywords: Inflation targeting, price stability, monetary policy rules, liquidity trap. * Correspondence: Coenen: Directorate General Research, European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany, phone +49 69 1344-7887, E-mail: [email protected] Orphanides: Division of Monetary Affairs, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Washington, D.C. -
QE Equivalence to Interest Rate Policy: Implications for Exit
QE Equivalence to Interest Rate Policy: Implications for Exit Samuel Reynard∗ Preliminary Draft - January 13, 2015 Abstract A negative policy interest rate of about 4 percentage points equivalent to the Federal Reserve QE programs is estimated in a framework that accounts for the broad money supply of the central bank and commercial banks. This provides a quantitative estimate of how much higher (relative to pre-QE) the interbank interest rate will have to be set during the exit, for a given central bank’s balance sheet, to obtain a desired monetary policy stance. JEL classification: E52; E58; E51; E41; E43 Keywords: Quantitative Easing; Negative Interest Rate; Exit; Monetary policy transmission; Money Supply; Banking ∗Swiss National Bank. Email: [email protected]. The views expressed in this paper do not necessarily reflect those of the Swiss National Bank. I am thankful to Romain Baeriswyl, Marvin Goodfriend, and seminar participants at the BIS, Dallas Fed and SNB for helpful discussions and comments. 1 1. Introduction This paper presents and estimates a monetary policy transmission framework to jointly analyze central banks (CBs)’ asset purchase and interest rate policies. The negative policy interest rate equivalent to QE is estimated in a framework that ac- counts for the broad money supply of the CB and commercial banks. The framework characterises how standard monetary policy, setting an interbank market interest rate or interest on reserves (IOR), has to be adjusted to account for the effects of the CB’s broad money injection. It provides a quantitative estimate of how much higher (rel- ative to pre-QE) the interbank interest rate will have to be set during the exit, for a given central bank’s balance sheet, to obtain a desired monetary policy stance. -
Financial Liberalization, International Monetary Dis/Order, and the Neoliberal State Timothy A
American University International Law Review Volume 15 | Issue 6 Article 4 2000 Financial Liberalization, International Monetary Dis/order, and the Neoliberal State Timothy A. Canova Follow this and additional works at: http://digitalcommons.wcl.american.edu/auilr Part of the International Law Commons Recommended Citation Canova, Timothy A. "Financial Liberalization, International Monetary Dis/order, and the Neoliberal State." American University International Law Review 15, no. 6 (2000): 1279-1319. This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the Washington College of Law Journals & Law Reviews at Digital Commons @ American University Washington College of Law. It has been accepted for inclusion in American University International Law Review by an authorized administrator of Digital Commons @ American University Washington College of Law. For more information, please contact [email protected]. FINANCIAL LIBERALIZATION, INTERNATIONAL MONETARY DIS/ORDER, AND THE NEOLIBERAL STATE TIMOTHY A. CANOVA ° INTRODUCTION ............................................ 1279 I. THE NEW INTERNATIONAL MONETARY DIS/ORDER.. 1281 II. CENTRAL BANK AUTONOMY AND TRANSPARENCY IN THE NEOLIBERAL STATE ............................. 1294 EI. WE HAVE OTHER ALTERNATIVES .................... 1315 INTRODUCTION This International Economic Law Conference has charged itself with a rather lofty task -- that of analyzing the professed justifica- tions of the prevailing neoliberal path of globalization by asking the following question: "Will the new world economic order we de- scribe lead to greater peace, stability, fairness and justice'?"' The global monetary system constitutes perhaps the most important legal and institutional foundation of today's world economic order in an- * Assistant Professor of Law, University of New Mexico School of Law. Thanks to Stephen Zamora, Cynthia Lichtenstein, and Chantal Thomas for comments dur- ing a panel discussion that helped to inform this paper. -
Markets Not Capitalism Explores the Gap Between Radically Freed Markets and the Capitalist-Controlled Markets That Prevail Today
individualist anarchism against bosses, inequality, corporate power, and structural poverty Edited by Gary Chartier & Charles W. Johnson Individualist anarchists believe in mutual exchange, not economic privilege. They believe in freed markets, not capitalism. They defend a distinctive response to the challenges of ending global capitalism and achieving social justice: eliminate the political privileges that prop up capitalists. Massive concentrations of wealth, rigid economic hierarchies, and unsustainable modes of production are not the results of the market form, but of markets deformed and rigged by a network of state-secured controls and privileges to the business class. Markets Not Capitalism explores the gap between radically freed markets and the capitalist-controlled markets that prevail today. It explains how liberating market exchange from state capitalist privilege can abolish structural poverty, help working people take control over the conditions of their labor, and redistribute wealth and social power. Featuring discussions of socialism, capitalism, markets, ownership, labor struggle, grassroots privatization, intellectual property, health care, racism, sexism, and environmental issues, this unique collection brings together classic essays by Cleyre, and such contemporary innovators as Kevin Carson and Roderick Long. It introduces an eye-opening approach to radical social thought, rooted equally in libertarian socialism and market anarchism. “We on the left need a good shake to get us thinking, and these arguments for market anarchism do the job in lively and thoughtful fashion.” – Alexander Cockburn, editor and publisher, Counterpunch “Anarchy is not chaos; nor is it violence. This rich and provocative gathering of essays by anarchists past and present imagines society unburdened by state, markets un-warped by capitalism. -
Investor Agreement and Disclosure Handbook
Investor Agreement and Disclosure Handbook This document is intended to provide you, the investor, with important information regarding your agreement to terms and policies established between you and the Lincoln Investment Companies, as well as those disclosures required to be delivered by our regulatory authorities. Please read this information carefully as it pertains to your current investments, and may also be relevant to future investments. Retain this document for your records. If you have any questions regarding the information found within this document, please contact your financial professional. Information contained in this guide supersedes prior disclosures or Handbooks you may have received. CONTENTS TERMS AND CONDITIONS PRE-DISPUTE ARBITRATION AGREEMENTS ....................................................................................................................................... I CUSTOMERS OF FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS ..................................................................................................................................... II NATURE OF THE RELATIONSHIP ....................................................................................................................................................... III CONSENT TO ELECTRONIC DELIVERY ............................................................................................................................................. IV ERROR NOTIFICATION & CORRECTION POLICY .............................................................................................................................. -
Interest-Rate-Growth Differentials and Government Debt Dynamics
From: OECD Journal: Economic Studies Access the journal at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/19952856 Interest-rate-growth differentials and government debt dynamics David Turner, Francesca Spinelli Please cite this article as: Turner, David and Francesca Spinelli (2012), “Interest-rate-growth differentials and government debt dynamics”, OECD Journal: Economic Studies, Vol. 2012/1. http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/eco_studies-2012-5k912k0zkhf8 This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. OECD Journal: Economic Studies Volume 2012 © OECD 2013 Interest-rate-growth differentials and government debt dynamics by David Turner and Francesca Spinelli* The differential between the interest rate paid to service government debt and the growth rate of the economy is a key concept in assessing fiscal sustainability. Among OECD economies, this differential was unusually low for much of the last decade compared with the 1980s and the first half of the 1990s. This article investigates the reasons behind this profile using panel estimation on selected OECD economies as means of providing some guidance as to its future development. The results suggest that the fall is partly explained by lower inflation volatility associated with the adoption of monetary policy regimes credibly targeting low inflation, which might be expected to continue. However, the low differential is also partly explained by factors which are likely to be reversed in the future, including very low policy rates, the “global savings glut” and the effect which the European Monetary Union had in reducing long-term interest differentials in the pre-crisis period. -
Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic Thomas Sargent, ,, ^ Neil Wallace (P
Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic Thomas Sargent, ,, ^ Neil Wallace (p. 1) District Conditions (p.18) Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review vol. 5, no 3 This publication primarily presents economic research aimed at improving policymaking by the Federal Reserve System and other governmental authorities. Produced in the Research Department. Edited by Arthur J. Rolnick, Richard M. Todd, Kathleen S. Rolfe, and Alan Struthers, Jr. Graphic design and charts drawn by Phil Swenson, Graphic Services Department. Address requests for additional copies to the Research Department. Federal Reserve Bank, Minneapolis, Minnesota 55480. Articles may be reprinted if the source is credited and the Research Department is provided with copies of reprints. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis or the Federal Reserve System. Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review/Fall 1981 Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic Thomas J. Sargent Neil Wallace Advisers Research Department Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis and Professors of Economics University of Minnesota In his presidential address to the American Economic in at least two ways. (For simplicity, we will refer to Association (AEA), Milton Friedman (1968) warned publicly held interest-bearing government debt as govern- not to expect too much from monetary policy. In ment bonds.) One way the public's demand for bonds particular, Friedman argued that monetary policy could constrains the government is by setting an upper limit on not permanently influence the levels of real output, the real stock of government bonds relative to the size of unemployment, or real rates of return on securities. -
Interest Rates and Expected Inflation: a Selective Summary of Recent Research
This PDF is a selection from an out-of-print volume from the National Bureau of Economic Research Volume Title: Explorations in Economic Research, Volume 3, number 3 Volume Author/Editor: NBER Volume Publisher: NBER Volume URL: http://www.nber.org/books/sarg76-1 Publication Date: 1976 Chapter Title: Interest Rates and Expected Inflation: A Selective Summary of Recent Research Chapter Author: Thomas J. Sargent Chapter URL: http://www.nber.org/chapters/c9082 Chapter pages in book: (p. 1 - 23) 1 THOMAS J. SARGENT University of Minnesota Interest Rates and Expected Inflation: A Selective Summary of Recent Research ABSTRACT: This paper summarizes the macroeconomics underlying Irving Fisher's theory about tile impact of expected inflation on nomi nal interest rates. Two sets of restrictions on a standard macroeconomic model are considered, each of which is sufficient to iniplv Fisher's theory. The first is a set of restrictions on the slopes of the IS and LM curves, while the second is a restriction on the way expectations are formed. Selected recent empirical work is also reviewed, and its implications for the effect of inflation on interest rates and other macroeconomic issues are discussed. INTRODUCTION This article is designed to pull together and summarize recent work by a few others and myself on the relationship between nominal interest rates and expected inflation.' The topic has received much attention in recent years, no doubt as a consequence of the high inflation rates and high interest rates experienced by Western economies since the mid-1960s. NOTE: In this paper I Summarize the results of research 1 conducted as part of the National Bureaus study of the effects of inflation, for which financing has been provided by a grait from the American life Insurance Association Heiptul coinrnents on earlier eriiins of 'his p,irx'r serv marIe ti PhillipCagan arid l)y the mnibrirs Ut the stall reading Committee: Michael R. -
Investor Capitalism?
University of Michigan Journal of Law Reform Volume 22 1988 Beyond Managerialism: Investor Capitalism? Alfred F. Conard University of Michigan Law School Follow this and additional works at: https://repository.law.umich.edu/mjlr Part of the Business Organizations Law Commons, and the Securities Law Commons Recommended Citation Alfred F. Conard, Beyond Managerialism: Investor Capitalism?, 22 U. MICH. J. L. REFORM 117 (1988). Available at: https://repository.law.umich.edu/mjlr/vol22/iss1/5 This Symposium Article is brought to you for free and open access by the University of Michigan Journal of Law Reform at University of Michigan Law School Scholarship Repository. It has been accepted for inclusion in University of Michigan Journal of Law Reform by an authorized editor of University of Michigan Law School Scholarship Repository. For more information, please contact [email protected]. BEYOND MANAGERIALISM: INVESTOR CAPITALISM? Alfred F. Conard* Table of Contents Introduction ...................................... 118 I. The Rise and the Flaw of Managerialism ....... 120 A . T he Rise ................................ 120 B . T he Flaw ................................ 122 C. Patches on the Flaw ...................... 126 1. Shareholder derivative suits ............ 126 2. Shareholder democracy ................ 127 3. Independent directors ................. 128 4. Specific prohibitions ................... 130 II. The Investorial Alternative .................... 131 A. The Institutional Eruption ................ 131 B. The Concept of Investor Capitalism ........ 135 C. The New and the Old in Investor Capitalism 136 III. The Motivation of Institutional Investors ....... 139 A. The Players in Investor Capitalism ......... 140 1. Fund managers ....................... 140 2. Fund sponsors ........................ 141 3. Portfolio managers .................... 142 4. Investor services ...................... 143 B. The W all Street Rule ..................... 144 C. The "Collective Good" Dilemma .......... -
An Assessment of Modern Monetary Theory
An assessment of modern monetary theory M. Kasongo Kashama * Introduction Modern monetary theory (MMT) is a so-called heterodox economic school of thought which argues that elected governments should raise funds by issuing money to the maximum extent to implement the policies they deem necessary. While the foundations of MMT were laid in the early 1990s (Mosler, 1993), its tenets have been increasingly echoed in the public arena in recent years. The surge in interest was first reflected by high-profile British and American progressive policy-makers, for whom MMT has provided a rationale for their calls for Green New Deals and other large public spending programmes. In doing so, they have been backed up by new research work and publications from non-mainstream economists in the wake of Mosler’s work (see, for example, Tymoigne et al. (2013), Kelton (2017) or Mitchell et al. (2019)). As the COVID-19 crisis has been hitting the global economy since early this year, the most straightforward application of MMT’s macroeconomic policy agenda – that is, money- financed fiscal expansion or helicopter money – has returned to the forefront on a wider scale. Some consider not only that it is “time for helicopters” (Jourdan, 2020) but also that this global crisis must become a trigger to build on MMT precepts, not least in the euro area context (Bofinger, 2020). The MMT resurgence has been accompanied by lively political discussions and a heated economic debate, bringing fierce criticism from top economists including P. Krugman, G. Mankiw, K. Rogoff or L. Summers. This short article aims at clarifying what is at stake from a macroeconomic stabilisation perspective when considering MMT implementation in advanced economies, paying particular attention to the euro area. -
Shareholder Capitalism a System in Crisis New Economics Foundation Shareholder Capitalism
SHAREHOLDER CAPITALISM A SYSTEM IN CRISIS NEW ECONOMICS FOUNDATION SHAREHOLDER CAPITALISM SUMMARY Our current, highly financialised, form of shareholder capitalism is not Shareholder capitalism just failing to provide new capital for – a system driven by investment, it is actively undermining the ability of listed companies to the interests of reinvest their own profits. The stock shareholder-backed market has become a vehicle for and market-fixated extracting value from companies, not companies – is broken. for injecting it. No wonder that Andy Haldane, Chief Economist of the Bank of England, recently suggested that shareholder capitalism is ‘eating itself.’1 Corporate governance has become dominated by the need to maximise short-term shareholder returns. At the same time, financial markets have grown more complex, highly intermediated, and similarly short- termist, with shares increasingly seen as paper assets to be traded rather than long-term investments in sound businesses. This kind of trading is a zero-sum game with no new wealth, let alone social value, created. For one person to win, another must lose – and increasingly, the only real winners appear to be the army of financial intermediaries who control and perpetuate the merry-go- round. There is nothing natural or inevitable about the shareholder-owned corporation as it currently exists. Like all economic institutions, it is a product of political and economic choices which can and should be remade if they no longer serve our economy, society, or environment. Here’s the impact -
Inside Money, Business Cycle, and Bank Capital Requirements
Inside Money, Business Cycle, and Bank Capital Requirements Jaevin Park∗y April 13, 2018 Abstract A search theoretical model is constructed to study bank capital requirements in a respect of inside money. In the model bank liabilities, backed by bank assets, are useful for exchange, while bank capital is not. When the supply of bank liabilities is not sufficiently large for the trading demand, banks do not issue bank capital in competitive equilibrium. This equilibrium allocation can be suboptimal when the bank assets are exposed to the aggregate risk. Specifically, a pecuniary externality is generated because banks do not internalize the impact of issuing inside money on the asset prices in general equilibrium. Imposing a pro-cyclical capital requirement can improve the welfare by raising the price of bank assets in both states. Key Words: constrained inefficiency, pecuniary externality, limited commitment JEL Codes: E42, E58 ∗Department of Economics, The University of Mississippi. E-mail: [email protected] yI am greatly indebted to Stephen Williamson for his continuous support and guidance. I am thankful to John Conlon for his dedicated advice on this paper. This paper has also benefited from the comments of Gaetano Antinolfi, Costas Azariadis and participants at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Korean Development Institute, The University of Mississippi, Washington University in St. Louis, and 2015 Mid-West Macro Conference at Purdue University. All errors are mine. 1 1 Introduction Why do we need to impose capital requirements to banks? If needed, should it be pro- cyclical or counter-cyclical? A conventional rationale for bank capital requirements is based on deposit insurance: Banks tend to take too much risk under this safety net, so bank capital requirements are needed to correct the moral hazard problem created by deposit insurance.